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Ring of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 4,588
Adopt-a-Bronco: Bill Vinovich |
Ranking the Top 100 Players from the Draft
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com April 29th, 2009 Sadly for NFL fans, the draft does not even signify the midway point between the Super Bowl and the start of the next regular season. For two days packed with incessant speculation and unmatched optimism, every football fan gets a fix. And for fans of every team, hope springs that maybe these few new players can make the difference. Then, we wait for four months until kickoffs count. At WhatIfSports.com, it's a little different. Draft day signifies the beginning of one of our busiest times of the year as we work on our comprehensive, full-season preview. For the preview, we project stats for every single player and team in the league by simulating each game on the schedule 10,000 times. Coming up with statistical inputs is relatively easy for veteran players as most tend to play to a predictable performance trend as they age and take on different roles. Rookies present the biggest challenge. To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factors collegiate performance, role in college, strength of collegiate competition, "measurables," likely NFL role, previous performance of a similar player in that NFL role for this coaching staff and trends of similar rookies in the past. This gives us the player's projected ratio stats (expected yards per carry, completion percentage, etc.), as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming season. From there, we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his new NFL team in his first year. The Top 100 from this ranking are listed below. We have done pretty well with this approach. Leading into the 2008 season. Last season's ranking is located here. As you can see, not only did this methodology correctly rank first round draft choices like Jonathan Stewart, Jerod Mayo, Jake Long and Sedrick Ellis among the top ten, it helped to point out some steals like Steve Slaton, Charles Godfrey, Matt Forte, Trevor Scott, Jamaal Charles and Cliff Avril. Clearly, it is easier for some players at some positions to come in and make a positive impact in the first year. Typically, these positions include wide receiver and inside linebacker, where the stats rack up with playing time. For 2009, we are ranking 12 wide receivers among the Top 100 impact rookies. Four of them are in the top ten. Six of the eight inside linebackers drafted also appear on this list. Based on these rankings, with six Top 100 rookies each, Detroit and Buffalo will get the most positive impact from their rookies in 2009. With just one player each in our Top 100 - both first round quarterbacks - Tampa Bay and the New York Jets have the draft classes with the least depth. Without further ado, numbers 100 – 11 are: 100. William Moore, S, Atlanta 99. Andre Brown, RB, New York Giants 98. Jaimie Thomas, OL, Indianapolis 97. Terrance Taylor, DT, Indianapolis 96. Nic Harris, LB/S, Buffalo 95. David Johnson, TE, Pittsburgh 94. D.J. Moore, CB, Chicago 93. Patrick Chung, S, New England 92. David Veikune, DE, Cleveland 91. Sen'Derrick Marks, DT, Tennessee 90. Derrick Williams, WR, Detroit 89. Zack Follett, LB, Detroit 88. Victor Harris, CB, Philadelphia 87. Shawn Nelson, TE, Buffalo 86. Lardarius Webb, CB, Baltimore 85. Chris Owens, CB, Atlanta 84. Jared Cook, TE, Tennessee 83. Seth Olsen, OL, Denver 82. Louis Murphy, WR, Oakland 81. Cornelius Ingram, TE, Philadelphia 80. Stanley Arnoux, LB, New Orleans 79. Pat White, WR/QB, Miami 78. Courtney Greene, S, Seattle 77. Travis Beckum, TE, New York Giants 76. Duke Robinson , OL, Carolina 75. Myron Pryor, DT, New England 74. Mike Mickens, CB, Dallas 73. Aaron Maybin, DE, Buffalo 72. Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay 71. Herman Johnson, OL, Arizona 70. Jarett Dillard, WR, Jacksonville 69. Clint Sintim, LB, New York Giants 68. Louis Vasquez, OL, San Diego 67. Andrew Levitre, OL, Buffalo 66. Robert Ayers, DE, Denver 65. Fili Moala, DT, Indianapolis 64. Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Chicago 63. Michael Oher, OL, Baltimore 62. Scott McKillop, LB, San Francisco 61. Robert Henson, LB, Washington 60. Stryker Sulak, DE, Oakland 59. Clay Matthews, LB, Green Bay 58. Vontae Davis, CB, Miami 57. Max Unger, OL, Seattle 56. Paul Kruger, LB, Baltimore 55. Victor Butler, LB, Dallas 54. James Casey, TE, Houston 53. Michael Mitchell, S, Oakland 52. DeAngelo Smith, CB/S, Dallas 51. Ryan Succop, K, Kansas City (Mr. Irrelevant makes the cut!) 50. Darius Butler, CB, New England 49. Michael Johnson, DE, Cincinnati 48. Sherrod Martin, CB, Carolina 47. Kraig Urbik, OL, Pittsburgh 46. Antoine Caldwell, OL, Houston 45. Brian Robiskie, WR, Cleveland 44. Alex Mack, OL, Cleveland 43. Evander Hood, DT, Pittsburgh 42. Lawrence Sidbury, DE, Atlanta 41. Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis 40. Kevin Huber, P, Cincinnati 39. DeAndre Levy, LB, Detroit 38. Everette Brown, DE, Carolina 37. Jonathan Luigs, C, Cincinnati 36. Sean Smith, CB, Miami 35. Jairus Byrd, CB, Buffalo 34. Malcolm Jenkins, CB, New Orleans 33. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit 32. Tyson Jackson, DE, Kansas City 31. Phil Loadholt, OL, Minnesota 30. Jason Phillips, LB, Baltimore 29. Eben Britton, OL, Jacksonville 28. Rashad Johnson, S, Arizona 27. Eric Wood, OL, Buffalo 26. Eugene Monroe, OL, Jacksonville 25. Larry English, DE/LB, San Diego 24. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia 23. Jarron Gilbert, DT, Chicago 22. LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia 21. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Oakland 20. Connor Barwin, DE, Houston 19. Chris Wells, RB, Arizona 18. Brian Cushing, LB, Houston 17. Rey Maualuga, LB, Cincinnati 16. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver 15. James Laurinaitis, LB, St. Louis 14. B.J. Raji, DT, Green Bay 13. Brian Orakpo, DE, Washington 12. Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis 11. Alphonso Smith, CB, Denver And now the top ten: #10: Louis Delmas, S, Detroit The likely starter over last year's free safety, Kalvin Pearson, former Western Michigan standout, Louis Delmas should be an instant impact player on a team starving for help in the defensive backfield. The Lions only intercepted four passes all of last season. Delmas matched that total in his sophomore and senior seasons, while racking up the tackles for the Broncos. He is a great fit along young, hard-hitting strong safety Daniel Bullocks. #9: Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants With Plaxico Burress' sudden release and the team's unwillingness to bring back Amani Toomer, Eli Manning needs some help. Nicks, the 6'1", 215-pound receiver out of North Carolina is somewhere in between those previously mentioned receivers. He has great hands like Toomer and projects to a higher yards-per-catch than the retiree, yet lacks Burress' elite size and redzone prowess. By the end of the year, expect Nicks to ultimately win the competition with Dominik Hixon and Steve Smith to be Manning's new favorite target in the passing game. #8: Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Tennessee is another team in desperate need of a go-to wide receiver. The Titans have not had a wideout eclipse 750 yards since Derrick Mason in 2004. In 2008, Justin Gage led the way with 651 yards on just 34 catches. Britt, who has prototypical size and athleticism for the position, should be the long-term answer for the Titans. With an excellent running game and a veteran quarterback, he has a good chance of breaking out this season. In the latter weeks and in the playoffs, look for Britt to become an intimidating weapon for Kerry Collins. #7: Andre Smith, OL, Cincinnati Andre Smith is listed here for the same reason he was drafted so early by the Bengals – for what he did on the field. The beauty of this analysis is that it is not bias (and does not know what the guy looks like without his shirt on). If a player has "issues" we work those into his playing time projection, but we don't let that impact how is projected to play when he does. Smith is dominant run blocker who warranted Heisman conversation last season and is much closer to being number one on this list than he is to being a bust. #6: Jason Smith, OL, St. Louis Jason Smith gets the nod over Andre Smith because he is the better pass blocker. And while Andre's pass blocking ability is closer to Jason's than Jason's run blocking is to Andre's, protecting the quarterback is crucial in the NFL. All signs seem to indicate that Jason Smith is incredibly talented and yet is still improving. That should pay off for the Rams this season and for many years to come. #5: Aaron Curry, LB, Seattle Curry is a versatile linebacker who is ready to step in as a starter for the Seahawks in week one. The Wake Forest product has averaged 94 tackles, three sacks and two interceptions per season as a three-year starter in the ACC, making him as ready-made for the NFL as defensive prospects come. Furthermore, while some ultra-productive college defensive players have extreme red flags in their "measureables" that correctly point to deficiencies in their games, Curry possesses great size, speed and strength for the position. #4: Percy Harvin, WR/RB, Minnesota Everyone who has seen Harvin run raves about how quickly he can get to full speed and how fast he is with the football. For as impressive as he is to watch, Harvin's numbers are better. Playing against the country's best competition in the SEC, he was always the most dynamic player on the field. Per touch, he has more talent and can bring more to an NFL team than any other rookie. Our projection assumes Harvin is used in a way similar to Reggie Bush (or at least how Bush may be used in a backfield with Adrian Peterson), with 76 rushes, 50 receptions and some return duty. #3: Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets Mark Sanchez is better than Matthew Stafford. Sanchez projects to complete 60% of his passes and an interception per 36 attempts for a typical NFL team. In the same vacuum, Stafford completes 54% of his passes and throws an interception every 29 passes. Stafford is ranked higher because of two things: 1) the Lions will throw the ball more and 2) Calvin Johnson. Sanchez should be solid this season and for several years. Neither of these quarterbacks appear to be consistent Pro Bowlers (New York bias aside), yet Sanchez's bust potential is much lower than Stafford's. #2: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit 2009 should be significantly better for Detroit with Stafford at the helm than it was in 2008. That being said, there will be a learning curve and Stafford will probably never be great. The rankings of the quarterbacks on this list have more to do with the opportunities to impact the team positively than with talent. We project Sanchez to attempt 97% of the Jets' passes and Stafford to attempt 91% of the Lions'. On total number of plays and touches alone, they would probably both be at the top of the "greatest overall negative impact" list as well. #1: Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco Unlike last season, when three players eclipsed the mark, there are no 1,000-yard rushers or receivers projected from this group of rookies. Crabtree is the closest thing and it really would not be a surprise to see him do it. He gets great marks across the board from college performance, to NFL opportunity, to "measurables" and even a successful player (Issac Bruce) in this role last season. The only concerns with this projection would be inconsistency at quarterback – Shaun Hill, Damon Huard, Alex Smith and Nate Davis are the options – and recent injuries to his feet and ankles. http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondth...e=2009NFLDraft ![]() |
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#2 |
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Rebel Laughs
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 8,303
Adopt-a-Bronco: Von Miller |
Wrong.
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#3 |
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Ring of Famer
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 8,269
Adopt-a-Bronco: None |
If you go with this ranking, it makes the Alphonso Smith deal look even better.
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Guerrilla Ontologist
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Future
Posts: 42,696
Adopt-a-Bronco: Prima Materia |
One night earlier in teh week or what not - i was driving around and listening to the tirico & vanpelt show - they had mcd or xanders on - i forget which - but they stated they had alphonso smith rated as a first rounder and that's why they made the trade...
I still they think should have gotten something back (3rd rounder even) - but regardless - i heard the front office's take - and more or less understood it... Do i still think we should have gotten a pick in return: Yes. But i do get it. |
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Seasoned Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 339
Adopt-a-Bronco: No |
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#6 | |
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Ring of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 4,588
Adopt-a-Bronco: Bill Vinovich |
Quote:
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Ring of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 4,643
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#8 | |
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Ring of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 2,019
Adopt-a-Bronco: # 15 |
Quote:
http://sports.espn.go.com/stations/player?id=4105704 |
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A verbis ad verbera
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Long Beach
Posts: 32,524
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Put Moreno at the top of that list. Do these people watch the NFL? It's always rb's and linebackers that make biggest first yr impact. Matt Forte, Chris Johnson last yr, this yr I'm guessing Moreno and Brown
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