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Old 04-29-2009, 12:25 PM   #1
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Default False Logic about next year's draft?

Just asking a logical question here about next year's draft.

Everyone is b****ing about possibly trading out of a high first round draft pick next year because they say next year's draft will be much stronger.

Isn't the benefit of a "strong draft" the fact that you have lots of great players all the way through the first round (and even into the second round), and not just in the top 10?

So what gives? Aren't there quite a few people around here talking about the strength of next year's draft, but then saying we have to have a high pick or we won't get a good player?

Logic please?
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:30 PM   #2
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while I am neither for or against the pick I do know this

2>1
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:30 PM   #3
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A bunch of highly touted juniors decided to stay in school... Next year "should" be SIGNIFICANTLY more talented in the top 10 as well as deeper through every round.

This draft was much weaker than I thought... Usually we see teams grasping for straws in the 4th or 5th round. This year teams were pulling out the wild cards in the 2nd round.

That and 2010 is projected to be a very good draft for both QB's and Dlinemen... perceived areas of need for us.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:31 PM   #4
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I assume the idea is that having two first rounders in a strong draft gives you a much better chance of getting two quality players than you would in a weaker draft.

I'm fine with the Smith trade, but it's hardly difficult to grasp why people would rather the extra first next year.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:34 PM   #5
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I was feeling pretty damn good about getting Bradford or Cody next year but now we don't have a fuggin shot at either
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:38 PM   #6
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If there are better players than Alphonso Smith in the first round next year, and there likely will be, and any of those players could help the Broncos more than Alphonso Smith will, and that's to be determined, then it was a bad trade.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:40 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rugbythug View Post
while I am neither for or against the pick I do know this

2>1
With that simple logic then you could say 3 > 2 for this years draft.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:42 PM   #8
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Even caring about next yr a joke to me. Anything can happen. Cutler could get injured and Bears go 7-9, we go 6-10 and the pick is exactly a few spots different. Smith could be defensive rookie of the yr by then, or have taken over the starting spot etc.

Hell he could be a fan favorite like Royal by the draft next yr. Anyone thinking ahead already to next yrs draft hasn't been around football very long. Look at who they project right now, then look at it later, and it will look very different.

There simply isn't enough money to sign 4 first round picks over 2 yrs, and still be players in the FA market, and resign Marshall, Kuper etc when time comes.

Broncos seem to me to have a plan and I am on board. I'm sure once the kid makes a play or two all of you will be also.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:42 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by oubronco View Post
I was feeling pretty *** good about getting Bradford or Cody next year but now we don't have a fuggin shot at either
That would go completely against the grain of what McDaniels does... It's like Shanahan never drafts first rounds Runningbacks. McDaniels/Belichick's Disciple never drafts first round QB's. You would have got your hopes up to only be let down so be thankful you got that out of the way.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:43 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmhargrove View Post
Just asking a logical question here about next year's draft.

Everyone is b****ing about possibly trading out of a high first round draft pick next year because they say next year's draft will be much stronger.

Isn't the benefit of a "strong draft" the fact that you have lots of great players all the way through the first round (and even into the second round), and not just in the top 10?

So what gives? Aren't there quite a few people around here talking about the strength of next year's draft, but then saying we have to have a high pick or we won't get a good player?

Logic please?
two things:

One...our traded 1st round pick won't be a top 10 pick....

and B...we will not have interest in any of next year's 1st round QB prospects...
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:43 PM   #11
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For my part, I'd have rather saved that pick for a high calibre DT next year, rather than a high calibre CB this year. Seems like we've proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that high calibre CBs aren't able to affect the game as much if they're not getting a good push up front to help them out.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:43 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaylore View Post
If there are better players than Alphonso Smith in the first round next year, and there likely will be, and any of those players could help the Broncos more than Alphonso Smith will, and that's to be determined, then it was a bad trade.
Well you would have to factor in how the kid plays and we don't know that yet.

If he helps win a few games with interceptions, can be a starter, then its a good pick. Bailey and Goodman both over 30. The team needed corners IMO.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:45 PM   #13
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Anyone thinking ahead already to next yrs draft hasn't been around football very long.
I'll bet more than a few people around here who have watched football for decades would disagree with that. Just saying things doesn't make them true.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:50 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaylore View Post
If there are better players than Alphonso Smith in the first round next year, and there likely will be, and any of those players could help the Broncos more than Alphonso Smith will, and that's to be determined, then it was a bad trade.
There'll almost always be somebody who could do better than what you took though.

Say Moreno becomes one of the best backs in the league, having an LT-esque career, but meanwhile Josh Freeman turns out to be the greatest QB the NFL has ever seen.

Does that make Moreno a bad pick?

It's an overdone example, obviously, but I think if you take the approach you've outlines you'll never be satisfied.

If Alphonso Smith becomes a good starting CB in the NFL, then I'm fine with the trade really.

If not, it's a bad trade.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:51 PM   #15
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Quote:
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For my part, I'd have rather saved that pick for a high calibre DT next year, rather than a high calibre CB this year. Seems like we've proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that high calibre CBs aren't able to affect the game as much if they're not getting a good push up front to help them out.
I agree with this wholeheartedly we need kicka** D-Linemen and having 20 DB's isn't going to help that fact
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:52 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Schism View Post
There'll almost always be somebody who could do better than what you took though.

Say Moreno becomes one of the best backs in the league, having an LT-esque career, but meanwhile Josh Freeman turns out to be the greatest QB the NFL has ever seen.
Does that make Moreno a bad pick?

It's an overdone example, obviously, but I think if you take the approach you've outlines you'll never be satisfied.

If Alphonso Smith becomes a good starting CB in the NFL, then I'm fine with the trade really.

If not, it's a bad trade.
DUDE
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:53 PM   #17
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That would go completely against the grain of what McDaniels does... It's like Shanahan never drafts first rounds Runningbacks. McDaniels/Belichick's Disciple never drafts first round QB's. You would have got your hopes up to only be let down so be thankful you got that out of the way.
50% of them do. Mangini only drafted a 2nd round QB, Crennel drafted 1st round.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:56 PM   #18
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One thing that we keep ignoring anyways is that Chicago's pick next year is almost certainly going to be higher then our pick this year, just based on the fact that our pick this year was already lower then Chicago's pick.

That alone is a reason why we should have traded the Chicago pick.

What's more is that the pick was basically as a luxury pick for Smith. I am the first to enjoy breaking the mold with players, but corner is not a easy position to pick up.

The problem I have is that short term thinking can impact the long term future of clubs. McDaniels is basically mortgaging next year to make this year work. And the asset that he picked up is somewhat questionable.

So either it works, and we win immediately, in which case the pick isn't as important, because we don't have as many thing to fix, or we suck, the pick is valuable, and we already traded it away.

There is no middle ground with McDaniels. No hedging his bet. He gets to make the call, but if he is wrong, it will have a huge impact on our franchise.
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Old 04-29-2009, 01:02 PM   #19
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50% of them do. Mangini only drafted a 2nd round QB, Crennel drafted 1st round.
Crennel hired the Chargers former offensive coordinator and Mangini hired the Chargers former QB coach to run his offense.

McDaniels has come to Denver from day one and let it be known that he is bringing the Patriot Way with him. I'd say McDaniels has gone a long way to prove that point. Wouldn't you?

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Old 04-29-2009, 01:04 PM   #20
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McDaniels is basically mortgaging next year to make this year work.
We still have our full lot of 7 picks next year.
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Old 04-29-2009, 01:11 PM   #21
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The only way trading next year first work out if the Broncos use that money to get a player like Wilfork.
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Old 04-29-2009, 01:14 PM   #22
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Its stupid to discuss now because we have no clue where we will be picking, who will be avail, what we need...etc. Lets revisit this in 3 years.
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Old 04-29-2009, 01:15 PM   #23
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For my part, I'd have rather saved that pick for a high calibre DT next year, rather than a high calibre CB this year.
I don't disagree, but what's interesting is that, unless I'm mistaken, CB is a higher paid position. So teams put a higher value on CB's for whatever reason.
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Old 04-29-2009, 01:17 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmhargrove View Post
Just asking a logical question here about next year's draft.

Everyone is b****ing about possibly trading out of a high first round draft pick next year because they say next year's draft will be much stronger.

Isn't the benefit of a "strong draft" the fact that you have lots of great players all the way through the first round (and even into the second round), and not just in the top 10?

So what gives? Aren't there quite a few people around here talking about the strength of next year's draft, but then saying we have to have a high pick or we won't get a good player?

Logic please?
What would you rather have if you are a rebuilding franchise, two picks in the first round next year, or 1 pick in the second round this year? On this Broncos board, we are working hard at coming up with reasons to believe we got the better deal. Over on the Seahawks board, they don't have to come up with reasons. They'll have two, first round picks next year. The whole thing hinges on whether or not Big Al turns out to be the real deal. To pretend like there's not a major risk involved here is just silly. On this board, I keep hearing how Alphonso is a first round pick. Well, a bunch of teams in the NFL didn't agree and he dropped into the second round. How far would he have dropped if the Broncos didn't take him at 37?
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Old 04-29-2009, 01:22 PM   #25
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What would you rather have if you are a rebuilding franchise, two picks in the first round next year, or 1 pick in the second round this year? On this Broncos board, we are working hard at coming up with reasons to believe we got the better deal. Over on the Seahawks board, they don't have to come up with reasons. They'll have two, first round picks next year. The whole thing hinges on whether or not Big Al turns out to be the real deal. To pretend like there's not a major risk involved here is just silly. On this board, I keep hearing how Alphonso is a first round pick. Well, a bunch of teams in the NFL didn't agree and he dropped into the second round. How far would he have dropped if the Broncos didn't take him at 37?
You make it sound like we gave up 2 picks next year for this kid. In the end we had 4 picks in the first round over the next 2 years and we basically just took 3 of them this year. Yes, I understand he slid into the early second round but that is probably why they jumped on him.

Mayock had him going to Pittsburgh at 32 so he slid a few spots. Mayocks words were this is an example of the rich getting richer when talking about Alphonso Smith. He was too good to slide much further without any off the field issues. 1st round, 2nd round no matter... he was rated as one of the top cornerbacks in this draft.

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