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View Poll Results: On Day 1 after the draft, are you still depressed?
Yep. We mortgaged our future for some questionable picks. 9 40.91%
No. McDaniels is the genius that we thought he was. At the very least, he deserves a chance. 13 59.09%
Voters: 22. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-27-2009, 01:51 PM   #1
lostknight
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Default Warming to the Draft, sorta... Success critera...

Two days from the first pick, I am sort of warming to the draft. But let me re-iterate, this draft, as well as the decision to ditch Cutler are on McDaniel's head. If the Broncos fail to secure a playoff berth, then he should go.

I made a joke earlier on that I thought the Broncos might want to hire Mike Mayock to do their picks this year, given their late firing of the Goodmans, and the complete lack of any drafting experience up front. I have to admit being surprised that it seems like they did just that.

1) Knowshown Moreno
I liked this pick before the draft. He was my #12 pick in my mock. Why do I like this pick? Good O-lines mark bad talent. Bad O-lines negate good talent. Moreno had a good offensive line and a good quarterback, but the moves he makes after first contact convinces me that he is more of a true athlete, and a better long term prospect then Stafford who also hid behind the line.

But here is the rub. We already had more then enough running backs. This was not a position of need. McDaniels that experience had taught that it was hard to get good running backs. That's true in New England with a system that isn't great for running (collapsed lines) versus the Bronco's ZBS and it's also true that I don't think the running coaches are particularly good there. In Denver we have the best Runninbacks coach in the leauge, and one of the best O-Lines in the NFL. A high school running back should be able to consistently make yards in our system provided he can stay healthy.

So this is a very Broncos move. All of the talk about platooning should be gone for a while now.

So the success critera for Moreno is nothing short of domination. He should be the Adrian Peterson of the league.

1) Robert Ayers
Ayers was also the second pick in my mock. I like Ayers the more I read about him. He is peaking late, but I think the reason for him peaking late is because of his attitude, not his skill set. In particular, there is a interview with his coach that basically asserted that Ayers had a difficult time learning from coaches and other players until his senior year, at which point he became a "sponge" for coaching.

I am not as quick as others to push him off of the front Line. I think he may end up being the bargain. But if Orakpo ends up scoring big numbers, the eff on the face of McDaniels is going to be huge. From my point of view, he must be a starter this year to be worth what we paid for him.

2) Alphonso Smith
There are two problems with this pick. The first problem isn't Smith, it's Ron Brace. When the Broncos moved up there were a lot of talented players, most notably Rey-Rey, Everette Brown (projected more then once as our first round pick) and Ron Brace on the board. I was not a fan of Rey-Rey in the first because of the high bust possibility, but Ron Brace in particular would fill a huge problem area for us.

The second problem with this pick is that the thing I like most about Alphonso Smith is actually Aaron Curry. Smith got away with the plays he made because he had a rock solid LB core in front of him. Without the same quality of LB, will he be as effective? Smith's smaller size makes me scared that he is going to draw a ton of defensive penalties as he has to overcompensate for more talented opponents.

What do I like about it? His arms for one. His backpedal is awesome to watch, and he has almost a six sense about where the ball was in college. How adaptable he is in the NFL will be a big question. If he can diagnose big plays with much more complex play books, he is going to be effective, especially up the middle.

So my success critera for him is a bit different. I want to see him be a positive game changer this season. The broncos's corners have simply not brought down the big plays that they did in the Plummer era. Smith need to do this.


2) Darcel McBath
WTF? Kruger and DJ Moore are still on the board. We need help at Safety, and at D-Line. I honestly beleive that this was a desperation pick because between Alphonso Smith and this pick, Ron Brace who everyone and their mother knew we needed and Pat White, who would have been a great dual use player went off the board.

So here is the success critera. Darcel McBath needs to do better then Moore. If Moore sucks it up, this pick is brilliant. if he doesn't, it's one more snowflake on top of a sliding avalanche of evidence that we need a real GM.

2) Richard Quinn.
This is a disastrous pick. Not only would he have been there with either of the two picks we gave up to grab him, he has never been a full time starter in college to say nothing about the NFL. I really honestly have no idea what the FO is seeing here.

So prove me wrong. A second round pick should be able to start year one. The target of this pick might not actually be Tony Scheffler, it might be Daniel Graham. After all, New England already ditched Graham once. But there is not a lot here that makes sense.

I am not even sure it's possible to come up with a success criteria here. The only one I think of is a scenario where Tony and Graham get hurt and Richard Quinn steps in to fill his shoes.

5) David Bruton
Unsexy and solid special teams player. He might eventually be a starter, but I doubt that it will be this year. The fact that the last two rounds were so catastrophically bad makes this pick look positively inspired. Note that there is about 15 times as much video on this guy as there is on our last second round pick.

Success critera - Should really be one of our gunners and increase the number of forced fair catches. Long run he might make it as a starter, he has the physical skills, but not the technique.

5) Kenny McKinley
I like this pick. I don't like the cost of this pick, but the success criteria for him is that he should be the eventual replacement for Brandon Stokley. Also might address a big problem with the Broncos with a decent WR up the middle option.

7) Tom Brandstater
Probably Camp Fodder, but a intriguing prospect. Success criteria would be actually having more tds then interceptions. Not something he accomplished in college.

7) BLAKE SCHLUETER
I worry about the center position. Casey had a great year last year, but can he continue? WE may regret not using a earlier pick. Must contribute on special teams.
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Old 04-27-2009, 01:59 PM   #2
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why do you guys add the lame comments at the end of the poll options?...

why can't it just be yes or no?...
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Old 04-27-2009, 02:03 PM   #3
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Oy don't forget our guard! Seth...something or other.

As I predicted before the draft, based on past experiences: I snapped when they didn't pick who I wanted, and within a few hours had warmed up to each pick.

I have to admit, the Richard Quinn pick really tried my homerism, but after reading that article about Kyle Brady I realized it was another step towards totally replicating the Pats offense.

Hard to get excited about any of our second day picks, except maybe Bruton. I like his attitude, looking forward to seeing him on ST, I think him and Woodyard and Larsen could provide some nice hits this year.
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Old 04-27-2009, 03:42 PM   #4
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I like the Tom Brandstater pick.

First of all his first name is Tom and last name starts with B and he was a sixth round pick. McD couldn't pass on that!
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Old 04-27-2009, 04:00 PM   #5
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I can't vote in this poll... I think we questionably gave up draft value for questionable picks, but believe McDaniels deserves a chance to make it happen.
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Old 04-27-2009, 04:09 PM   #6
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Why don't you just set "McDaniels brings about world peace" as your success criterion? Taking this team from where it was in 2008 to the playoffs in 2009 is about as likely as world peace.

I always suspect that setting up silly criteria is just a way to be able to complain about what one was going to complain about anyway.

I'll be pleased next year if (1) Our TOP and red-zone performance improves on O; (2) Our special teams move out of the bottom 1 and into the top 20 the later part of 2009; and (3) Our D moves out of the bottom 2 and into the top 20 the later part of 2009. Attaining those three goals will be clear evidence of progress toward a playoff spot.

If we hit two of those three goals and the other, either special teams or D, shows clear signs of improving, I'll suspect we're on the right track.

If we don't hit the goals, I'm still prepared to give new management a couple more years to turn around a franchise that was in serious and continuing decline before I start complaining too much.

I'm not too much attached to having management turn things around exactly the way I think they should turned things around. But then I'm a data-analyst, not a football expert. Frankly, I would have preferred to see a monster nose tackle drafted. But maybe that guy didn't exist this year for the Broncos and I really have no idea what other changes on D (scheme, coaches, free agents) will have on the defense.

I hope Pat Bowlen takes a similarly long-view. If he adopts the approach of folks on this board, we're in for more chaos in a year or two when we hire another coach and he changes everything again. We needed a change. Bowlen made it. You don't turn a franchise in decline into a winner overnight.
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Old 04-27-2009, 06:49 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
I can't vote in this poll... I think we questionably gave up draft value for questionable picks, but believe McDaniels deserves a chance to make it happen.
I pretty much agree with you on this and couldn't vote because I don't like either option, but will add that MCD should get a minimum 2 maybe 3 years to let his system boom or bust. Besides, depending on how much Shanny gets paid next year from another team, Bowlen isn't going to have 3 HC's on his payroll.
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Old 04-27-2009, 07:01 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fdf View Post
Why don't you just set "McDaniels brings about world peace" as your success criterion? Taking this team from where it was in 2008 to the playoffs in 2009 is about as likely as world peace.

I always suspect that setting up silly criteria is just a way to be able to complain about what one was going to complain about anyway.

I'll be pleased next year if (1) Our TOP and red-zone performance improves on O; (2) Our special teams move out of the bottom 1 and into the top 20 the later part of 2009; and (3) Our D moves out of the bottom 2 and into the top 20 the later part of 2009. Attaining those three goals will be clear evidence of progress toward a playoff spot.

If we hit two of those three goals and the other, either special teams or D, shows clear signs of improving, I'll suspect we're on the right track.

If we don't hit the goals, I'm still prepared to give new management a couple more years to turn around a franchise that was in serious and continuing decline before I start complaining too much.

I'm not too much attached to having management turn things around exactly the way I think they should turned things around. But then I'm a data-analyst, not a football expert. Frankly, I would have preferred to see a monster nose tackle drafted. But maybe that guy didn't exist this year for the Broncos and I really have no idea what other changes on D (scheme, coaches, free agents) will have on the defense.

I hope Pat Bowlen takes a similarly long-view. If he adopts the approach of folks on this board, we're in for more chaos in a year or two when we hire another coach and he changes everything again. We needed a change. Bowlen made it. You don't turn a franchise in decline into a winner overnight.
You must be a data-analyst, hence the post with well thought-out logic rather than knee-jerk emotion.

Yea, that is pretty much my approach to it. I am going to at least let the season develop and look for improvements before I throw in the towel.
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