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Old 04-27-2009, 11:28 AM   #1
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Default Analyzing the BPA approach we took

In theory I agree with this idea of BPA…but only to a point…because we all know no NFL team follows this philosophy entirely. Does anyone think McD takes an OT in round 1 if he's the top guy on their board? No obviously not. Teams try to stick with a BPA approach as much as possible but there's no team that never leaves some wiggle room here. Here's something interesting...check the picks that were taken through round 5 where Denver picked an offensive player instead of a front 7 defender...forget the points where D-backs were taken...just look at offensive selections only. In every case front 7 defensive players were taken shortly after Denver's pick, including some that were either taken by 3-4 teams or else seem to fit the 3-4 defense. Check it out:

Round 1: 12th pick; Moreno/Denver... 13th pick Brian Orakpo- DE/OLB; (Wash); 15th pick Brian Cushing- OLB (Hou), 16th pick Larry English- OLB (SD)

Round 2: 64th pick; Quinn/Denver...67th pick; Alex Magee- DT (KC); 68th pick; Jarron Gilbert- DE (Chi); 70th pick; Michael Johnson- DE (Cin)

Round 4: 132nd pick; Olson/Denver…136th pick; Terrance Taylor- DT (Indy)

Round 5: 141st pick/Mckinney/Denver…146th pick; Scott McKillop-ILB (SF); 150th pick; Jasper Brinkley- ILB (Minn)

That’s a total of 9 players separated by only 19 spots in the draft across 4 different spots. We can assume not every team has these guys ranked in the same order but it’s also unlikely we can assume that NONE of these guys were ranked anywhere close to where they were drafted on the Denver board. So basically the team might have had to adjust a guy a couple of places upward in order to take him but we are talking about a small change here. Is the 141st ranked player that much better than one ranked 9 spots later? That’s the largest gap here...9 spots. Something doesn’t add up…if they’re taking BPA that’s great, but if they’re so inflexible they cannot adjust a guy even slightly…that makes little sense.

Discuss...

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Old 04-27-2009, 11:33 AM   #2
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well to say the offense didnt need help at all is silly. but if they truly thought they players they drafted would make a better impact then the guys they DIDNT draft, its hard to argue with the decision.
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:33 AM   #3
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if the broncos were taking BPA, then why were they trading up all weekend?
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:39 AM   #4
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if the broncos were taking BPA, then why were they trading up all weekend?
to get the best players on their board before they disappeared
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:41 AM   #5
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to get the best players on their board before they disappeared


alrighty then
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:42 AM   #6
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They didn't exactly have a BPA approach. They had specific list of guys that they targeted and they got.

BPA approach tends to sound like settling; I think we were active and in control--the fact was that the talent of the draft didn't line up with our needs and the general thinness on the draft likely made more of an imperative for us to get our guys.
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:43 AM   #7
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alrighty then
if you had say 5 people you wanted with your #79 pick and 4 were gone, you make a move to get the last guy...but the alphonso pick, i think they saw that they could grab him with a first next year, the only reason they moved our first next year is because we had two, mcdaniels even said it. "we have a full draft for next year"
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:45 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by footstepsfrom#27 View Post
In theory I agree with this idea of BPA…but only to a point…because we all know no NFL team follows this philosophy entirely. Does anyone think McD takes an OT in round 1 if he's the top guy on their board? No obviously not. Teams try to stick with a BPA approach as much as possible but there's no team that never leaves some wiggle room here. Here's something interesting...check the picks that were taken through round 5 where Denver picked an offensive player instead of a front 7 defender...forget the points where D-backs were taken...just look at offensive selections only. In every case front 7 defensive players were taken shortly after Denver's pick, including some that were either taken by 3-4 teams or else seem to fit the 3-4 defense. Check it out:

Round 1: 12th pick; Moreno/Denver... 13th pick Brian Orakpo- DE/OLB; (Wash); 15th pick Brian Cushing- OLB (Hou), 16th pick Larry English- OLB (SD)

Round 2: 64th pick; Quinn/Denver...67th pick; Alex Magee- DT (KC); 68th pick; Jarron Gilbert- DE (Chi); 70th pick; Michael Johnson- DE (Cin)

Round 4: 132nd pick; Olson/Denver…136th pick; Terrance Taylor- DT (Indy)

Round 5: 141st pick/Mckinney/Denver…146th pick; Scott McKillop-ILB (SF); 150th pick; Jasper Brinkley- ILB (Minn)

That’s a total of 9 players separated by only 19 spots in the draft across 4 different spots. We can assume not every team has these guys ranked in the same order but it’s also unlikely we can assume that NONE of these guys were ranked anywhere close to where they were drafted on the Denver board. So basically the team might have had to adjust a guy a couple of places upward in order to take him but we are talking about a small change here. Is the 141st ranked player that much better than one ranked 9 spots later? That’s the largest gap here...9 spots. Something doesn’t add up…if they’re taking BPA that’s great, but if they’re so inflexible they cannot adjust a guy even slightly…that makes little sense.

Discuss...
Right or wrong, I think what this proves is that McX didn't think any of these defensive players were any better than the guys that are currently on the roster.

Plus, McX perhaps thought that the talent level between these guys and what they could get via UFAs was nominal.
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:46 AM   #9
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This is insane to compare. It just lacks any sort of logic. All teams have diff schemes and different evaluations of players. Most playersi n the draft DONT make it. Its only a best guess.
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:49 AM   #10
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if you had say 5 people you wanted with your #79 pick and 4 were gone, you make a move to get the last guy...but the alphonso pick, i think they saw that they could grab him with a first next year, the only reason they moved our first next year is because we had two, mcdaniels even said it. "we have a full draft for next year"
that wouldn't be BPA..that would be going after targeted players.

I don't have problem with the players they got...just disappointed that they mostly ignored their biggest weakness(front 7).
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:50 AM   #11
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This is a really good OP in a potentially very good thread.

This illustrates my frustration with the Denver draft perfectly and it doesn't even account for the added frustration of the trade for Smith with Brace or Rey on the board.
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:52 AM   #12
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Right or wrong, I think what this proves is that McX didn't think any of these defensive players were any better than the guys that are currently on the roster.
Which is scary because Moss is still on the roster and he's apparently not even worth a 7th. And I assume pretty much the same could be said for Crowder. That's two guys on this defense that are essentially worthless, yet McDaniels believes they are better than any of the DLinemen in this entire draft. Awesome.
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:53 AM   #13
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This is insane to compare. It just lacks any sort of logic. All teams have diff schemes and different evaluations of players. Most playersi n the draft DONT make it. Its only a best guess.
It absolutely does not lack "any sort of logic". It's reasonable to believe that while differences exist, perhaps significantly so in some cases, it's unlikely that NONE of the players taken that I listed were not at least fairly closely ranked to where they were taken on Denver's board. One could make a similar argument for front 7 defenders taken fairly closely to their picks ABOVE where we picked. We traded up for a CB who they describe as a nickel back and used a #1 to do so. Why isn't it legitimate to ask why they didn't see any similar front 7 defenders for the same opportunity?

At the end of the day our most critical needs...defense in the trenches...went largely ignored. I'm glad we're looking at UDFA's...wish we'd have looked a little harder in the draft.
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:53 AM   #14
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It wasn't a BPA approach. There were too many trades up to consider this a BPA approach. They targeted guys and went to get them, apparently regardless of cost.
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:55 AM   #15
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It wasn't a BPA approach. There were too many trades up to consider this a BPA approach. They targeted guys and went to get them, apparently regardless of cost.
That's hair splitting. They still had these guys ranked and decided they wanted them based on where they were ranked. Trading up just shows they were assertive in getting up the ladder. I'm asking why NONE of their picks chosen on offense through 5 rounds could have been chosen for the team's most pressing need.
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:55 AM   #16
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This is a really good OP in a potentially very good thread.

This illustrates my frustration with the Denver draft perfectly and it doesn't even account for the added frustration of the trade for Smith with Brace or Rey on the board.
It's pretty clear to me that McX saw more value in trading up for what he thinks is the best CB in the draft, rather than spending that pick on lower rated players, simply because they are sitting there. Again, you can argue the strategy behind the Alphonso pick, but you can't argue the fact that McX got the player they wanted.
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:56 AM   #17
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McD said it was also important for him to bring in players for all 3 phases. Mentioned how the specially challenged teams ranked 32 in the league in field position. I think he placed alot of emphasis there, in which he should, because we sucked in s/t's as well for a long time. Field position is BIg part of the game.
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:58 AM   #18
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Which is scary because Moss is still on the roster and he's apparently not even worth a 7th. And I assume pretty much the same could be said for Crowder. That's two guys on this defense that are essentially worthless, yet McDaniels believes they are better than any of the DLinemen in this entire draft. Awesome.
I doubt he beleived that, but if in fact he does...we should have serious reservatoins about what he knows about defensive talent. Does anyone truly believe any GM in the league thinks the guy's he took on the D-line in the draft in the 1st 3 rounds are worth less than Crowder? If they did they'd have traded for Crowder or Moss. Are you telling me little hoodie believes something no other coach in the league does about this draft?
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Old 04-27-2009, 11:59 AM   #19
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It's pretty clear to me that McX saw more value in trading up for what he thinks is the best CB in the draft, rather than spending that pick on lower rated players, simply because they are sitting there. Again, you can argue the strategy behind the Alphonso pick, but you can't argue the fact that McX got the player they wanted.
I know what you're saying, but please factor in that I currently could give two ****s about McDeeznuts or Colonel Xanders and the Tecumseh Sherman slash and burn approach they've taken to all things Denver Broncos.

Can't wait for the first jump ball Smith goes for against a Randy Moss or Fitz or CJ or... well any receiver over 6 feet... which is roughly all of them.
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Old 04-27-2009, 12:01 PM   #20
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Which is scary because Moss is still on the roster and he's apparently not even worth a 7th. And I assume pretty much the same could be said for Crowder. That's two guys on this defense that are essentially worthless, yet McDaniels believes they are better than any of the DLinemen in this entire draft. Awesome.
Yes and no. McD probably felt that taking those players (talking mainly about the DTs here) at their alloted time slot, was not as good of value as taking someone else. Basically, you pass on a guy who you don't think will help you out as much as another guy, regardless of position. For example, if McD had a WR rated at a certain level and a DT rated at a certain level and he took the WR and not the DT, then he's taking the most impactful player at the time of the pick.
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Old 04-27-2009, 12:01 PM   #21
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Which is scary because Moss is still on the roster and he's apparently not even worth a 7th. And I assume pretty much the same could be said for Crowder. That's two guys on this defense that are essentially worthless, yet McDaniels believes they are better than any of the DLinemen in this entire draft. Awesome.
Are you really that dense? Neither Moss or Crowder figure to make the team, much less play much.
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Old 04-27-2009, 12:02 PM   #22
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I'm asking why NONE of their picks chosen on offense through 5 rounds could have been chosen for the team's most pressing need.
Because the players on the board at positions of need just weren't good enough.

Why is it so hard for many to accept that the depth wasn't there for us to rebuild the Dline with our draft. Teams that did take NT and 3-4 DEs did so to build depth (NE) not to find franchise guys.

More than that I think the difference between Brace and Baker is smaller than Smith and the first UDFA CB.
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Old 04-27-2009, 12:03 PM   #23
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Maybe I'm wrong but didn't McDaniels state that the trade-ups for McKinley and Brandstater were undertaken because they didn't have very many players left on their board so they wanted to make sure they got 2 guys they wanted

McDaniels also stated he traded up for Smith because he was the best CB on our board and in his opinion had good 1st rd value.

Denver took the players they wanted it's as simple as that. McDaniels stated there was no value for 5 tech players where we picked so they mustn't have been high on our board.
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Old 04-27-2009, 12:05 PM   #24
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I think I see where you are going here, but the overall Grades are for Value, and the team grades are for BPA. That means while a player like Orakpo, Cushing, or English gets picked right behind Moreno in value, those players were not the TEAM BPA on the board. In fact, they could have been much lower than their overall value in some cases. I disagree with that, but Hey its not my draft board!

To go BPA is to ignore the league value and take the best player on your board or go get the last tiered player in your BPA by moving up for a guy they had ranked as a second tier first round CB In Smith. I am stunned their board was stacked the way it was to go get the TE in the second round when it looked like TE's were getting way undervalued in this draft though.

The thing about this is, teams shift priorities drafting as their tiers change. A lot of teams Go BPA the first 2 rounds, then switch to targets the next three, then shift back to BPA to finish the draft. This is the first one by this regime so it might take some time to see the logic behind it.
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Old 04-27-2009, 12:09 PM   #25
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Maybe I'm wrong but didn't McDaniels state that the trade-ups for McKinley and Brandstater were undertaken because they didn't have very many players left on their board so they wanted to make sure they got 2 guys they wanted

McDaniels also stated he traded up for Smith because he was the best CB on our board and in his opinion had good 1st rd value.

Denver took the players they wanted it's as simple as that. McDaniels stated there was no value for 5 tech players where we picked so they mustn't have been high on our board.
From what I've read so far, it appears that Mac and Xanders had a very limited board. Perhaps when they saw the end coming, they panicked and started jumping on the players they wanted. I suggest next year they simply turn on the TV and pick who Mayock tells them to pick.
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