Forbes: Denver 5th best drafting since 2006

[s0phr0syne]

http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/08/nfl...nfl-draft.html

Best And Worst NFL Draft Teams
Monte Burke, 04.08.09, 06:00 PM EDT

How choices played out on the field.

What's almost as anticipated as the Super Bowl? The annual National Football League Draft.

This year, it will be held April 25-26 at New York's Radio City Music Hall. That's when all 32 professional teams will select newly eligible players for their rosters. The event has become, in effect, a second season for football fans, who obsess over which teams drafted the best players.

Here's a thought: Instead of looking at how many draftees make the team's active roster, a better barometer of success might be a survey of the last three years of drafts for all 32 NFL teams. To judge them, we looked at the percentage of players from those three draft classes who were still listed as active members of the team. The results were surprising.


Topping the list of the best drafting teams: the Houston Texans, who have kept on their current roster an amazing 85% of the players they've drafted in the last three years. The Texans have also produced two All-Pros (linebacker DeMeco Ryans and defensive end Mario Williams). But the Texans' record over the last three years is a less-than-mediocre 22-26.

The Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants placed second and third, respectively.

The bottom five will surprise fans most. The worst drafting team in the past three years, holding on to only a little more than half of its drafted players: the New England Patriots. With three Super Bowl wins since 2001, the Patriots are the team of the decade so far. They boast a 39-9 record in the past three years. How have they maintained that excellence? Though saddled with low draft picks, the Patriots have been the masters of picking up useful veteran free agents--players whose contracts have expired, making them eligible to sign with any team--to fill holes in their lineup (see: receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker).

Behind the Numbers

To find the NFL's best and worst teams at drafting, we looked at the last three years of drafts for all 32 NFL teams. To judge the success or failure of the drafting teams, we looked at the percentage of players from those three draft classes who were still listed as active members of the team.

We gave a little extra weight to players who had made the Associated Press' All-Pro first and second teams--the players deemed as that year's best at their respective positions. Membership in this elite group is difficult to crack for a young player, as many long-tenured veterans make the All-Pro team year after year based only on reputation (take the N.Y. Jets' Alan Faneca).

Guessing Game

The NFL draft is all about potential, a stock market of big men in pads and helmets. Despite all of the scouting, speed trials, interviews and intelligence tests that teams require of potential draft picks, there is no surefire way to know if a player just out of college will be able to make it in the NFL.

The [seven]-round draft is rife with mistakes on both ends of the spectrum: Ryan Leaf, the first pick of the San Diego Chargers in 1998, turned out to be fool's gold and was out of the NFL within four years. Tom Brady, the three-time Super Bowl winner for the New England Patriots and one of the best quarterbacks of all time, was the 199th player chosen in the 2000 draft, a hidden gem passed over by every NFL team multiple times.

With skyrocketing rookie contracts, the pressure to get a draft pick right is more acute now than ever. When Jake Long, last year's overall No.1 pick, signed a five-year $57.5 million contract with the Miami Dolphins, he became the highest-paid offensive tackle in the league without ever having played an NFL game.

How It Works

To help with competitive balance, the NFL organizes the draft positions in a reverse-record manner. That is, the team with the worst record gets the first draft pick going all the way down to the Super Bowl winner, which drafts 32nd. The Texans, with their poor record over the past three years, have continually had a favorable drafting position (average spot: 12th).

Successful teams--those with excellent win-loss records--have also succeeded in finding NFL-caliber players. Take the Indianapolis Colts, with a 37-11 record and a Super Bowl title in the 2006 season. The Colts average drafting position: 40.

The New York Giants, winners of the 2007 season Super Bowl, are another successful franchise. The Giants have held on to 90% of their draft picks from the past three years.

The Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos, two teams who have experienced up-and-down seasons of late, round out the list of best drafters.

After the Patriots, the next team from the bottom makes more intuitive sense: The lowly St. Louis Rams, who have logged a ghastly 13-35 record in the last three years. Though the Rams' average draft position is 10th, they have retained little more than half of their draftees.

Third worst is another surprise: the world champion Pittsburgh Steelers, with only 58% of their drafted players still on the team and no All-Pros among them. Like the Patriots, the perennially contending Steelers usually have a low draft spot, but they have fulfilled their needs by finding and developing excellent undrafted rookies over the years, like running back Willie Parker and linebacker James Harrison, the 2008 defensive player of the year.

Rounding out the bottom five are the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Dolphins had pitiful drafts until guru Bill Parcells stepped in as the de facto head of football operations. Parcells' talent-evaluation skills have turned the team around. The Bengals (19-28-1), by contrast, just can't seem to get out of their ugly rut.

The bottom line: Drafting NFL-caliber players is very important, but it doesn't necessarily equal success on the field. Finding other strategies to plug the gaps, like the Patriots and Steelers have done, is essential. So don't judge your team's success at the end of draft day. Wait to see how it all plays out--and watch for what your team does to boost draft deficiencies.

--------------------------------------------

Broncos segment from their "picture story" portion:

http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/08/nfl...hisSpeed=15000

Fifth Best: Denver Broncos

The Broncos have had excellent success in drafting offensive players. Tackle Ryan Clady (pictured at far left) was one of 2008's best. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall is becoming one of the game's biggest threats. But they recently traded 2006 first round pick, quarterback Jay Cutler (pictured near left), to the Bears.

Key picks: Ryan Clady and Brandon Marshall

-------------------------------------------------------------




This article is really horrendous in its approach to this subject. I think it's a pretty flawed analysis, but let's see what everyone else thinks...

[watermock]

great! Time to fire the Goodmans, trade our Pro-bowl QB, draft a franchise RB and rebuild change the scheme of the defense all at once!

Anyone that thinks bad drafting and the teams poor FA moves contributed to mediocrity...

[Popps]

Great offensive draft picks, horrible defensive picks. Hopefully that can be balanced out going forward.

The Patriots drafted for balance, and they made great use of free agency. For all the talk of how important this upcoming draft is, people are omitting how absolutely crucial it is to be effective in free agency. We've stepped on our ***** for almost a decade, with very few exceptions.

You have to be proficient at all...

1. Drafting offense
2. Drafting defense
3. Signing offensive FA's
4. Signing defensive FA's

We've basically only done one of those things well, as of late, and really none of them, consistently.

It's a tribute to Shanahan's game-day ability that he got as much out of the players he had. But, we've been really sub-par at putting a complete team together for a long time.

[Kaylore]

I've said before the loss of the Goodman's has me more worried than the loss of Cutler, Bates or any other issues others are worried about. At least we have a defensive staff we can trust, and hopefully the quantity of picks means we hit on at least a few defensive picks for a change. Still, I'm not real jazzed about Xanders learning on the job.

[TheDave]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

I've said before the loss of the Goodman's has me more worried than the loss of Cutler, Bates or any other issues others are worried about. At least we have a defensive staff we can trust, and hopefully the quantity of picks means we hit on at least a few defensive picks for a change. Still, I'm not real jazzed about Xanders learning on the job.

This group better hit their stride real quick or that recent trade could haunt us for a very long time.

[Kaylore]

Originally Posted by TheDave

This group better hit their stride real quick or that recent trade could haunt us for a very long time.

There's no question about that. Whether we "win" this trade or lose it will depend heavily on how good we are at using the ammo in this draft to make our team better. If we suck, then even if Cutler busts in Chi-town we come out losers. They need to be hitting in the early rounds or we'll be set back even more and we'll never hear the end of it.

[BroncoMan4ever]

Originally Posted by Popps

Great offensive draft picks, horrible defensive picks. Hopefully that can be balanced out going forward.

The Patriots drafted for balance, and they made great use of free agency. For all the talk of how important this upcoming draft is, people are omitting how absolutely crucial it is to be effective in free agency. We've stepped on our ***** for almost a decade, with very few exceptions.

You have to be proficient at all...

1. Drafting offense
2. Drafting defense
3. Signing offensive FA's
4. Signing defensive FA's

We've basically only done one of those things well, as of late, and really none of them, consistently.

It's a tribute to Shanahan's game-day ability that he got as much out of the players he had. But, we've been really sub-par at putting a complete team together for a long time.

true, considering the complete and utter garbage we brought in outside of the offensive selections the last few years, it truly was amazing that Shanahan had us at .500 the last 3 years

[SonOfLe-loLang]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

There's no question about that. Whether we "win" this trade or lose it will depend heavily on how good we are at using the ammo in this draft to make our team better. If we suck, then even if Cutler busts in Chi-town we come out losers. They need to be hitting in the early rounds or we'll be set back even more and we'll never hear the end of it.

It's still such a crapshoot. Most of these guys don't make it...lots of first round picks don't pan out. You can only glean so much information...so much of the draft is luck.

[NFLBRONCO]

Originally Posted by s0phr0syne

http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/08/nfl...nfl-draft.html

Best And Worst NFL Draft Teams
Monte Burke, 04.08.09, 06:00 PM EDT

How choices played out on the field.

What's almost as anticipated as the Super Bowl? The annual National Football League Draft.

This year, it will be held April 25-26 at New York's Radio City Music Hall. That's when all 32 professional teams will select newly eligible players for their rosters. The event has become, in effect, a second season for football fans, who obsess over which teams drafted the best players.

Here's a thought: Instead of looking at how many draftees make the team's active roster, a better barometer of success might be a survey of the last three years of drafts for all 32 NFL teams. To judge them, we looked at the percentage of players from those three draft classes who were still listed as active members of the team. The results were surprising.


Topping the list of the best drafting teams: the Houston Texans, who have kept on their current roster an amazing 85% of the players they've drafted in the last three years. The Texans have also produced two All-Pros (linebacker DeMeco Ryans and defensive end Mario Williams). But the Texans' record over the last three years is a less-than-mediocre 22-26.

The Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants placed second and third, respectively.

The bottom five will surprise fans most. The worst drafting team in the past three years, holding on to only a little more than half of its drafted players: the New England Patriots. With three Super Bowl wins since 2001, the Patriots are the team of the decade so far. They boast a 39-9 record in the past three years. How have they maintained that excellence? Though saddled with low draft picks, the Patriots have been the masters of picking up useful veteran free agents--players whose contracts have expired, making them eligible to sign with any team--to fill holes in their lineup (see: receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker).

Behind the Numbers

To find the NFL's best and worst teams at drafting, we looked at the last three years of drafts for all 32 NFL teams. To judge the success or failure of the drafting teams, we looked at the percentage of players from those three draft classes who were still listed as active members of the team.

We gave a little extra weight to players who had made the Associated Press' All-Pro first and second teams--the players deemed as that year's best at their respective positions. Membership in this elite group is difficult to crack for a young player, as many long-tenured veterans make the All-Pro team year after year based only on reputation (take the N.Y. Jets' Alan Faneca).

Guessing Game

The NFL draft is all about potential, a stock market of big men in pads and helmets. Despite all of the scouting, speed trials, interviews and intelligence tests that teams require of potential draft picks, there is no surefire way to know if a player just out of college will be able to make it in the NFL.

The [seven]-round draft is rife with mistakes on both ends of the spectrum: Ryan Leaf, the first pick of the San Diego Chargers in 1998, turned out to be fool's gold and was out of the NFL within four years. Tom Brady, the three-time Super Bowl winner for the New England Patriots and one of the best quarterbacks of all time, was the 199th player chosen in the 2000 draft, a hidden gem passed over by every NFL team multiple times.

With skyrocketing rookie contracts, the pressure to get a draft pick right is more acute now than ever. When Jake Long, last year's overall No.1 pick, signed a five-year $57.5 million contract with the Miami Dolphins, he became the highest-paid offensive tackle in the league without ever having played an NFL game.

How It Works

To help with competitive balance, the NFL organizes the draft positions in a reverse-record manner. That is, the team with the worst record gets the first draft pick going all the way down to the Super Bowl winner, which drafts 32nd. The Texans, with their poor record over the past three years, have continually had a favorable drafting position (average spot: 12th).

Successful teams--those with excellent win-loss records--have also succeeded in finding NFL-caliber players. Take the Indianapolis Colts, with a 37-11 record and a Super Bowl title in the 2006 season. The Colts average drafting position: 40.

The New York Giants, winners of the 2007 season Super Bowl, are another successful franchise. The Giants have held on to 90% of their draft picks from the past three years.

The Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos, two teams who have experienced up-and-down seasons of late, round out the list of best drafters.

After the Patriots, the next team from the bottom makes more intuitive sense: The lowly St. Louis Rams, who have logged a ghastly 13-35 record in the last three years. Though the Rams' average draft position is 10th, they have retained little more than half of their draftees.

Third worst is another surprise: the world champion Pittsburgh Steelers, with only 58% of their drafted players still on the team and no All-Pros among them. Like the Patriots, the perennially contending Steelers usually have a low draft spot, but they have fulfilled their needs by finding and developing excellent undrafted rookies over the years, like running back Willie Parker and linebacker James Harrison, the 2008 defensive player of the year.

Rounding out the bottom five are the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Dolphins had pitiful drafts until guru Bill Parcells stepped in as the de facto head of football operations. Parcells' talent-evaluation skills have turned the team around. The Bengals (19-28-1), by contrast, just can't seem to get out of their ugly rut.

The bottom line: Drafting NFL-caliber players is very important, but it doesn't necessarily equal success on the field. Finding other strategies to plug the gaps, like the Patriots and Steelers have done, is essential. So don't judge your team's success at the end of draft day. Wait to see how it all plays out--and watch for what your team does to boost draft deficiencies.

--------------------------------------------

Broncos segment from their "picture story" portion:

http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/08/nfl...hisSpeed=15000

Fifth Best: Denver Broncos

The Broncos have had excellent success in drafting offensive players. Tackle Ryan Clady (pictured at far left) was one of 2008's best. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall is becoming one of the game's biggest threats. But they recently traded 2006 first round pick, quarterback Jay Cutler (pictured near left), to the Bears.

Key picks: Ryan Clady and Brandon Marshall

-------------------------------------------------------------






This article is really horrendous in its approach to this subject. I think it's a pretty flawed analysis, but let's see what everyone else thinks...

5th in drafting O

30-32 in drafting D

[Killericon]

Originally Posted by NFLBRONCO

5th in drafting O

30-32 in drafting D

Elvis Dumervil is the only defensive player I can recall drafting that was any good since...DWill? Pryce?

[kappys]

Originally Posted by Killericon

Elvis Dumervil is the only defensive player I can recall drafting that was any good since...DWill? Pryce?

From a value for a late pick Spencer Larsen was pretty decent but yeah - everyone else has been terrible.

[telluride]

That hardly makes up for the #30ish place drafting from 2000 to 2005. And the past 3 yrs have been no prize either. Decent offense, horrible defense. We're well rid of those draft "gurus."

[Popps]

Originally Posted by Killericon

Elvis Dumervil is the only defensive player I can recall drafting that was any good since...DWill? Pryce?

Dumervil was a good pick, where we got him. Situational player, maybe more in the new system. (?)

I think the book was still out on D. Williams. But, he was certainly a middle-tier CB, at least. Looked like a guy who might be streaky, but more good than bad over the long-run.

DJ Williams was O.K.. Nothing special. Al Wilson was obviously a great draft pick, but that was a long time ago... as was Pryce. We've just been bad.

I'm extremely hopeful that we can turn that around. I just love watching kick-ass defenses play, and it's a shame I've had to watch other teams to see them.

[Swedish Extrovert]

Originally Posted by kappys

From a value for a late pick Spencer Larsen was pretty decent but yeah - everyone else has been terrible.

Spencer Larsen is going to be a great utility/special teamer for us for a while. That guy is intense. I think he could be a pretty decent middle linebacker too.

[Popcorn Sutton]

Anybody else notice New England and Pittsburgh were amongst the worst?

[Swedish Extrovert]

Hopefully McD is better than Belichick

[oubronco]

Originally Posted by MightySmurf

Hopefully McD is better than Belichick

yea and hope floats like shyt

[Beantown Bronco]

Though saddled with low draft picks, the Patriots have been the masters of picking up useful veteran free agents--players whose contracts have expired, making them eligible to sign with any team--to fill holes in their lineup (see: receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker).

Classic.

Neither of those guys were acquired through FA genius.

[loborugger]

Originally Posted by BrewCrew

Anybody else notice New England and Pittsburgh were amongst the worst?

I did.

Maybe its cuz they drafted so well in the first half of decade that there are no roster spots available for the draftees of the last 3 years?

[colonelbeef]

Originally Posted by telluride

That hardly makes up for the #30ish place drafting from 2000 to 2005. And the past 3 yrs have been no prize either. Decent offense, horrible defense. We're well rid of those draft "gurus."

Decent offense? How completely lost are you?

[s0phr0syne]

Originally Posted by Beantown Bronco

Classic.

Neither of those guys were acquired through FA genius.

Glass houses and all that...Welker was through RFA, maybe not UFA, but still FA.

[Beantown Bronco]

Originally Posted by s0phr0syne

Glass houses and all that...Welker was through RFA, maybe not UFA, but still FA.

Depends on how you look at it, I guess. He never signed the tender and, because of that, was traded for more picks than if he signed it....so I view it as a player acquired more through trade than free agency.

[WolfpackGuy]

SOMETHING must've changed.
The drafting before 2006 was total crap, and that's why the Broncos are where they are. Especially on defense.
It's amazing they've been able to hover around .500 for so long.

[elpasojoe]

Thank you for the comments about Larsen. I will be p---ed if this team doesn't find a was to get him and Woodyard out on the field. And isn't that a trademark characteristic of a really good DC? - structuring schemes to fit your talent. I believe Larsen should get a start at the ILB position, and find a way to get Woodyard involved.
By the way, does anyone know if WW has put on any weight over the offseason?

[labronx]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

I've said before the loss of the Goodman's has me more worried than the loss of Cutler, Bates or any other issues others are worried about. At least we have a defensive staff we can trust, and hopefully the quantity of picks means we hit on at least a few defensive picks for a change. Still, I'm not real jazzed about Xanders learning on the job.

This