The Orange Mane -  a Denver Broncos Fan Community  

Go Back   The Orange Mane - a Denver Broncos Fan Community > Orange Mane Discussion > Orange Mane Central Discussion > NFL Draft Forum
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Chat Room Mark Forums Read



Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 03-27-2009, 12:54 AM   #1
BowlenBall
Hurry Hurry
 
BowlenBall's Avatar
 
2014 -- This one's for Pat.

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Abu Dhabi
Posts: 5,264

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Matt Paradis
Default Michael Crabtree vs. Austin Collie

In the OM Mock Draft I, I just picked up one of my targeted players, WR Austin Collie from BYU. It's pretty interesting to look at his biography, especially as it compares to one of the 'premier' picks in the draft, WR Michael Crabtree from Texas Tech. Check it out:

Height:
Crabtree: 6' 1" 3/8
Collie: 6' 0" 7/8

Weight:
Crabtree: 215
Collie: 200

Date of Birth:
Crabtree: 9/14/87 (will be 22 for most of the 2009 season)
Collie: 11/11/85 (will be 23 for most of the 2009 season)

2008 Stats:
Crabtree: 97 receptions, 1165 yards, 19 touchdowns
Collie: 106 receptions, 1453 yards, 15 touchdowns

40-yard dash:
Crabtree: 4.55 (estimated, has not run for scouts)
Collie: 4.54 (pro day time)

Positives:
Crabtree: Consistent production, regardless of opponent (13 straight games with TD + 5 catches); Made some clutch catches to win games; Great hands; Good Character
Collie: Consistent production, regardless of opponent (11 straight 100-yard games); Made some clutch catches to win games; Great hands; among the top 10 wide receivers at the combine in bench press, 3-cone drill, and 60-yard shuttle; Very smart -- 4.0 GPA in high school, Academic all-conference honors in college; Eagle Scout and Missionary (might not be considered a positive by everyone, but does give some indication of character and mental make-up)

Negatives:
Crabtree: Played in a pass-happy offense; has foot injury which requires surgery; did not work out at combine; did not work out at pro day; 15 on the Wonderlic means he's not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
Collie: Played in a pass-happy offense, is from a 2nd-tier football conference

Draft Projection:
Crabtree: High 1st round (3rd-7th overall pick)
Collie: 3rd - 5th round (ranked around 120 on most draft sites)

Summary: While I'm not saying that Collie will be anywhere near as good as Crabtree in the pros (who knows?) , there does seem to be an odd disconnect here between these players' physical ability, college production, and their draft ranking.

I'd be interested to hear everyone's opinions on why Crabtree is rated so much higher. Is it just a media thing, or do you think that NFL teams also have a 100-pick spread between the two players?

Last edited by BowlenBall; 03-27-2009 at 01:44 AM..
BowlenBall is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Old 03-27-2009, 02:07 AM   #2
BroncoMan4ever
Ring of Famer
 
BroncoMan4ever's Avatar
 
That's just like your opinion, man

Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Denver
Posts: 13,362

Adopt-a-Bronco:
VIRGIL GREEN!!!
Default

i think it is a small school bias with guys like Collie.

i mean look at Marshall, his freakish measurables, good hands good college career and yet he lasted til the 4th, and i think a lot of that goes to being a smaller college prospect. Yet the Detroit receivers, Mike Williams from USC was a top 10 pick, Charles Rodgers another top 10 pick from a big time college and both sucked. too much stock is put into guys who go to the big time colleges, and a lot of more talented smaller school guys are overlooked.

another example. ROD SMITH. undrafted out of Missouri Southern after breaking that conferences records in receiving yards and TDs and his schools record for receptions. He was a finalist for the Harlon Hill Trophy which is basically the Heisman for Division II football. and he still went undrafted. had his stats been put up in USC or Texas he would have been a very high draft pick. of the 94 draft where Rod went undrafted, the only other receiver worth a damn was Isaac Bruce.

because of Rod and it wouldn't surprise me to see Collie actually have a really good career, possibly surpassing that of Crabtree even though he is not seen in the same league as Crabtree right now.
BroncoMan4ever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2009, 02:21 AM   #3
WABronco
WE SUCK AGAIN
 
WABronco's Avatar
 
All dat force

Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Denver
Posts: 5,032
Default

As OM Draft GAWD Mike Mayock would say, "look at the game tape"...

Have never seen Collie play, but I'm gonna assume that he wasn't as physically dominant as Crabtree.
WABronco is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2009, 07:28 AM   #4
gyldenlove
Ring of Famer
 
gyldenlove's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Nęstved, DK
Posts: 11,086

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Spencer Larsen
Default

There is always a small school bias, it is easier to be outstanding against poor opponents.

With players like this there is always an element of certainty in the scouting, how certain people are that the play and talent of a player will translate to the pros. It is easier to be certain of a player who has played against players who will be or is already in the pros. We have seen lots of examples of small school players who became great, but it is just too hard to judge and most teams wouldn't want to take that chance early in the draft.

You can consider it like this, you can buy 2 stocks, one has a very high probability of giving a good return, the other has some probability of a high return and some probability of becoming worthless, if the stock is expensive you are going to get the one that has the highest probability of giving a good return, while you would wait for the other stock to lose value and then try to pick it up.
gyldenlove is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2009, 08:03 AM   #5
Mediator12
OM analyst
 
Mediator12's Avatar
 
Roby AND Latimer?Who the Hell Knew?

Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: INDY
Posts: 10,095

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Malik Jackson
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by WABronco View Post
As OM Draft GAWD Mike Mayock would say, "look at the game tape"...

Have never seen Collie play, but I'm gonna assume that he wasn't as physically dominant as Crabtree.
That is it Precisely WAbronco!

Crabtree's tape is as good as Calvin Johnson's coming out a few years ago. It's the little things he consistently does well like protecting the ball in flight, getting open in tight coverage rolled to him, TD production, gets off the jam right away using quickness and physicality, and his hands are excelllent. Those are the little things he does that make him a top 10 pick on film.

Austin Collie is just a real good football player, who also lacks a top gear to get deep without a double move. He has about the same route running ability, but is a step down in seperation and quickness than Crabtree. He is really savy, but does not use his body as physically as Crabtree to get and maintain seperation. His tape is very nice though, And I would not be surprised if he goes much higher than the late fourth come April.

Personally, I like Collie a lot and If I did not already get James Casey in round 2, then I would have probably pulled the trigger on him right before you
Mediator12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2009, 06:44 PM   #6
TheChamp24
Future HOF...CHAMP BAILEY
 
TheChamp24's Avatar
 
The Legend

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Broncos Country
Posts: 5,507
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BroncoMan4ever View Post
i think it is a small school bias with guys like Collie.

i mean look at Marshall, his freakish measurables, good hands good college career and yet he lasted til the 4th, and i think a lot of that goes to being a smaller college prospect. Yet the Detroit receivers, Mike Williams from USC was a top 10 pick, Charles Rodgers another top 10 pick from a big time college and both sucked. too much stock is put into guys who go to the big time colleges, and a lot of more talented smaller school guys are overlooked.

another example. ROD SMITH. undrafted out of Missouri Southern after breaking that conferences records in receiving yards and TDs and his schools record for receptions. He was a finalist for the Harlon Hill Trophy which is basically the Heisman for Division II football. and he still went undrafted. had his stats been put up in USC or Texas he would have been a very high draft pick. of the 94 draft where Rod went undrafted, the only other receiver worth a damn was Isaac Bruce.

because of Rod and it wouldn't surprise me to see Collie actually have a really good career, possibly surpassing that of Crabtree even though he is not seen in the same league as Crabtree right now.
Mike Williams was straight up hype IMO and way too overrated. Charles Rogers was a great prospect who if he didn't keep getting injured would've been a solid WR in the NFL. Top 5 pick good, no, but still decent. Watch his Michigan State highlites, he was worthy of that high he was amazing.
And yes, there is a small school bias. Rod Smith kicked butt, but it was against inferior talent. Of course people aren't going to take those stats seriously and question an athlete's ability.
What makes Crabtree special? Just take a look at his game winning TD catch against Texas. That makes him special, not very many WR's would have the ability to stay with the ball, stop, catch it, dodge 2 defenders and score. Now, I don't think he will be amazing and an All-Pro every year, but still good.
TheChamp24 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2009, 08:02 PM   #7
David Wooderson
All That
 
David Wooderson's Avatar
 
'Sup, b?

Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Clovis, NM
Posts: 87

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Jake Plummer
Default

Collie is white and they're usually busts at the skill positions...statistically speaking..of course ...
David Wooderson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2009, 10:52 PM   #8
Kaylore
Because I am better
 
Kaylore's Avatar
 
Taysom Hill for Heisman!

Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Ceti Alpha V
Posts: 46,373

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Pat Bowlen
Default

I think playing in a spread offense should hurt Crabtree as much as Collie. Collie isn't as explosive as Crabtree, but the things that give me doubts about Collie as a pro prospect are the same things about Crabtree. Honestly he reminds me of a smaller Keyshawn Johnson in terms of the type of player. So I think the comparison is fair but more as a knock on Crabtree than an endorsement of Collie. We'll have to see.
Kaylore is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2009, 11:06 PM   #9
BroncoMan4ever
Ring of Famer
 
BroncoMan4ever's Avatar
 
That's just like your opinion, man

Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Denver
Posts: 13,362

Adopt-a-Bronco:
VIRGIL GREEN!!!
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jth1331 View Post
Mike Williams was straight up hype IMO and way too overrated. Charles Rogers was a great prospect who if he didn't keep getting injured would've been a solid WR in the NFL. Top 5 pick good, no, but still decent. Watch his Michigan State highlites, he was worthy of that high he was amazing.
And yes, there is a small school bias. Rod Smith kicked butt, but it was against inferior talent. Of course people aren't going to take those stats seriously and question an athlete's ability.
What makes Crabtree special? Just take a look at his game winning TD catch against Texas. That makes him special, not very many WR's would have the ability to stay with the ball, stop, catch it, dodge 2 defenders and score. Now, I don't think he will be amazing and an All-Pro every year, but still good.
the 1st line right there completely illustrates my point about how players from top schools catch undeserved hype.

and while the competition may be inferior in Division II, it isn't as big of a difference, that it should have made a guy like Rod Smith with all of his records and ass kicking in general be a completely unnoticed guy come draft day, i could understand it lowering his draft positioning, but making him undrafted was crazy. the guy was a finalist for the Division II equivalent of the Heisman, which means he had the skills to hang with the top flight schools, and get notice on draft day. had he played at USC, he would have been one of the top receivers drafted in 94.

while i agree that Crabtree looks good on film and does all the little things well, the offense he played in has me being cautious in whether i see him as a guy who is going to come in and be a major receiving weapon. he has Calvin Johnson hype right now, and nowhere near the ability. i am not really big on any of the receiving talent in this draft class, and don't think there is a big difference between the supposed top tier guys and the rest of the available receivers.
BroncoMan4ever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2009, 11:57 PM   #10
Broncos_OTM
Dropping bombs from 5280
 
Broncos Over All

Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 6,613

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Wooderson View Post
Collie is white and they're usually busts at the skill positions...statistically speaking..of course ...
Tell that to eddie mac
Broncos_OTM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2009, 12:32 AM   #11
BroncoMan4ever
Ring of Famer
 
BroncoMan4ever's Avatar
 
That's just like your opinion, man

Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Denver
Posts: 13,362

Adopt-a-Bronco:
VIRGIL GREEN!!!
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Broncos_OTM View Post
Tell that to eddie mac
and currently stokley
BroncoMan4ever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2009, 01:55 AM   #12
UberBroncoMan
Your Local Nostradamus
 
UberBroncoMan's Avatar
 
Wut

Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 7,979

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Nathaniel Irvig
Default

Just a heads up. Spencer Larsen is also a Mormon who did the whole missionary thing and ended up being drafted extremely low.
UberBroncoMan is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2009, 08:38 AM   #13
Mediator12
OM analyst
 
Mediator12's Avatar
 
Roby AND Latimer?Who the Hell Knew?

Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: INDY
Posts: 10,095

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Malik Jackson
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BroncoMan4ever View Post
the 1st line right there completely illustrates my point about how players from top schools catch undeserved hype.

and while the competition may be inferior in Division II, it isn't as big of a difference, that it should have made a guy like Rod Smith with all of his records and ass kicking in general be a completely unnoticed guy come draft day, i could understand it lowering his draft positioning, but making him undrafted was crazy. the guy was a finalist for the Division II equivalent of the Heisman, which means he had the skills to hang with the top flight schools, and get notice on draft day. had he played at USC, he would have been one of the top receivers drafted in 94.

while i agree that Crabtree looks good on film and does all the little things well, the offense he played in has me being cautious in whether i see him as a guy who is going to come in and be a major receiving weapon. he has Calvin Johnson hype right now, and nowhere near the ability. i am not really big on any of the receiving talent in this draft class, and don't think there is a big difference between the supposed top tier guys and the rest of the available receivers.
I really disagree with you here. Crabtree is much more refined coming out than Calvin Johnson was, but he does not have the speed. They are 2 totally different types of WR's. Johnson has Randy Moss type Skills, Crabtree has Anquan Boldin type skills. Both are Top WR skillsets, just one is a homerun deep ball threat with little over the middle ability in traffic and the other is a underneath nightmare who catches everything in traffic with deep ability if you overplay him. They are both top 10 talent type skillsets @ WR in today's NFL, they just fit Different systems and different Situations.

And, BTW Georgia Tech and Texas Tech are nowhere near College Powerhouse schools, so calling Crabtree a big shool hype player is very misleading. Tech has emerged on the scene because of the greatness of Crabtree and some other very good players, not because they are a college powerhouse.

Last edited by Mediator12; 03-28-2009 at 08:55 AM..
Mediator12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2009, 01:20 PM   #14
TheChamp24
Future HOF...CHAMP BAILEY
 
TheChamp24's Avatar
 
The Legend

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Broncos Country
Posts: 5,507
Default

Also, talking about Rod Smith, didn't he have an injury in college that sort of made teams back away? And wasn't he older than some other guys? Plus, his stats in college weren't THAT stellar, his senior year he had 63 catches, 986 yards and 13 TD's. He was small as well, not an ideal type of WR teams would be looking at.

With Crabtree, I don't think he will ever be Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Steve Smith good, but he can still play ball and very good at it.
TheChamp24 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2009, 04:05 PM   #15
Drek
Ring of Famer
 
Drek's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 12,368
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberBroncoMan View Post
Just a heads up. Spencer Larsen is also a Mormon who did the whole missionary thing and ended up being drafted extremely low.
Is that supposed to be surprising?

Tim Tebow does missionary work, but he does it over the summer, not during football season, because he's an elite prospect.

If Larsen or Collie were elite talents then they probably would've done that too.

Also, as soon as a guy takes years off from football they immediately take away one plus from their scouting profile, age. The NBA is a good example of this, its a league so obsessed with the youth movement that upper classmen, not even graduating seniors, are basically pariahs in their draft. That carries over some into the NFL, as teams are less willing to spend top picks on players in their mid-20's.
Drek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2009, 04:47 PM   #16
barryr
Ring of Famer
 
New to the Forum

Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 9,725

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

What hurts Collie is that BYU is still considered a pass happy school in a pass happy conference and that many BYU WR's lately have not gone on to do much in the NFL. Not saying that's fair, but that's why he'll be somewhat underrated.
barryr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2009, 09:11 PM   #17
gyldenlove
Ring of Famer
 
gyldenlove's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Nęstved, DK
Posts: 11,086

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Spencer Larsen
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by barryr View Post
What hurts Collie is that BYU is still considered a pass happy school in a pass happy conference and that many BYU WR's lately have not gone on to do much in the NFL. Not saying that's fair, but that's why he'll be somewhat underrated.
That only hurts you so much, Lelie was taken early out of Hawaii and Crabtree will be taken early out of Texas Tech the 2 most pass happy schools in the universe.
gyldenlove is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2009, 10:01 PM   #18
Kaylore
Because I am better
 
Kaylore's Avatar
 
Taysom Hill for Heisman!

Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Ceti Alpha V
Posts: 46,373

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Pat Bowlen
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drek View Post
Is that supposed to be surprising?

Tim Tebow does missionary work, but he does it over the summer, not during football season, because he's an elite prospect.

If Larsen or Collie were elite talents then they probably would've done that too.
You're talking about something you know nothing about. Standard LDS missions are two years for men whether you're elite or not. Tim Tebow isn't LDS and so can go on the shorter kind of service mission (whatever his denomination offers). It has nothing to do with being "an elite prospect." I don't know if Tim Tebow would have served a mission if he was Mormon, but if he did, he would also serve the standard two years.
Kaylore is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2009, 10:43 PM   #19
lex
Ring of Famer
 
lex's Avatar
 
The Broncos have been DisemBowlened

Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Chi-Town
Posts: 10,236

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

Calvin Johnson and Crabtree were in two totally different situations. The QB throwing trying to throw the ball to Johnson was among the worst passing QBs Ive ever seen in college. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is one of the most effective passing teams year in and year out.
lex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2009, 06:28 AM   #20
oubronco
John Foneco !!
 
oubronco's Avatar
 
Mile High Magic

Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Sooner Country
Posts: 20,234
Default

If Crabtree were to fall to us and we passed on him what would everybody think of McD then?
oubronco is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2009, 01:03 PM   #21
Mediator12
OM analyst
 
Mediator12's Avatar
 
Roby AND Latimer?Who the Hell Knew?

Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: INDY
Posts: 10,095

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Malik Jackson
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lex View Post
Calvin Johnson and Crabtree were in two totally different situations. The QB throwing trying to throw the ball to Johnson was among the worst passing QBs Ive ever seen in college. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is one of the most effective passing teams year in and year out.
Yes, and your point is?

Calvin ran a prostyle offense with a poor QB and Crabtree ran a spread offense with a QB that can only throw about 5 routes and none of the more difficult NFL throws. Calvin caught a bunch of homerun balls and Crabtree caught almost everything underneath and very little even @ intermediate.

2 Totally different situations, 2 totally different skillsets, but 2 of the best WR's on tape to come out in the last 6-7 years base on what type they are.
Mediator12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2009, 03:24 PM   #22
lex
Ring of Famer
 
lex's Avatar
 
The Broncos have been DisemBowlened

Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Chi-Town
Posts: 10,236

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mediator12 View Post
Yes, and your point is?

Calvin ran a prostyle offense with a poor QB and Crabtree ran a spread offense with a QB that can only throw about 5 routes and none of the more difficult NFL throws. Calvin caught a bunch of homerun balls and Crabtree caught almost everything underneath and very little even @ intermediate.

2 Totally different situations, 2 totally different skillsets, but 2 of the best WR's on tape to come out in the last 6-7 years base on what type they are.

People really didnt know Johnsons limitations due to the QB situation. The things Johnson did used skills/talents that Crabtree doesnt have. Its impossible to know if Crabtree has any advantage over Johnson because that part comparison is apples and oranges since there is no basis for comparison.
lex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2009, 04:07 PM   #23
Mediator12
OM analyst
 
Mediator12's Avatar
 
Roby AND Latimer?Who the Hell Knew?

Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: INDY
Posts: 10,095

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Malik Jackson
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lex View Post
People really didnt know Johnsons limitations due to the QB situation. The things Johnson did used skills/talents that Crabtree doesnt have. Its impossible to know if Crabtree has any advantage over Johnson because that part comparison is apples and oranges since there is no basis for comparison.
That is what scouting and projection is all about. Delineating skills and talents from Physical attributes, mental makeup, gamefilm, scheme limitations, personnel limitations, and level of competition to name a few.

These are not similar players at all skill wise, they are totally different types of players. Yet, each are uniquely talented at what they do and bring to a team. Both rated as high as any WR in their type in many years. Crabtree rates much higher than Boldin coming out, yet both are the same type of Player. Johnson is the highest rated Type of his kind since Randy Moss in 1998. Both players grades are skillset based and not Overall based. Johnson is not going to excel in playing a WCO system, but Crabtree will. Crabtree is not going to excel in vertical passing offense, but Johnson will. The only other comparable players that have graded out that high @ WR the last 6-7 years are Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.
Mediator12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2009, 04:10 PM   #24
lex
Ring of Famer
 
lex's Avatar
 
The Broncos have been DisemBowlened

Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Chi-Town
Posts: 10,236

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mediator12 View Post
That is what scouting and projection is all about. Delineating skills and talents from Physical attributes, mental makeup, gamefilm, scheme limitations, personnel limitations, and level of competition to name a few.

These are not similar players at all skill wise, they are totally different types of players. Yet, each are uniquely talented at what they do and bring to a team. Both rated as high as any WR in their type in many years. Crabtree rates much higher than Boldin coming out, yet both are the same type of Player. Johnson is the highest rated Type of his kind since Randy Moss in 1998. Both players grades are skillset based and not Overall based. Johnson is not going to excel in playing a WCO system, but Crabtree will. Crabtree is not going to excel in vertical passing offense, but Johnson will. The only other comparable players that have graded out that high @ WR the last 6-7 years are Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.

Again, the only way to know that would be if Calvin Johnson were playing in an offense with a more functional QB. Without that, you dont truly know that Crabtree can do things that Johnson couldnt. The only thing you know is that Crabtree is probably not as fast as Johnson and is definitely not as tall.
lex is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:



Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 01:50 PM.


Denver Broncos