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Old 03-06-2009, 09:32 PM   #1
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OK, March is here. I couldnt wait any longer to make this thread. Mid major conference tourneys are underway, and major conference tourney's start next week.

Im gonna make some predictions here:
No one from the Big East wins it all. Only one Big East team makes it to the Final Four.

UNC does not win it all, odds of Final Four 75%.

OU bows out in the Elite 8.

Mizzou tanks in the second round.

Michigan State makes the final Four **If they remain healthy

Memphis does not make it 4 straight years to the Elite 8 (or beyond) and bows out in the Sweet Sixteen.

Duke makes a serious run but ultimately falls just short.

KU gets to the sweet sixteen (Elite 8 if they get a 2 or 3 seed, SS if they get a 4 seed).

No national champion prediction yet. Have to see the brackets because this year, unlike last year, is completely wide open IMO.

Oh, Louisville will NOT make the Final Four. No team in the history of the 64 team era that has been beaten by more than 20 points (lost by 30 to Notre Dame) has ever made it to the Final Four.

Kentucky gets in because of name not merit.

Florida goes back to the NIT. How the mighty have fallen.

LSU, the best the SEC has, doesnt make it out of the opening weekend.

Washington surprises and makes it to the Elite 8. You watch.

Big Boy Tournament Champs:
ACC Champ: UNC
Big East Champ: UConn
SEC Champ: LSU
Pac 10 Champ: Washington
Big 10 Champ: Michigan State
Big XII Champ: OU (tourney is in OK City otherwise Id go with KU)

Surprises:
Im going with only 1 #1 seed making the Final Four this year.
Xavier will beat some team highly ranked.
Pitt will go down earlier than anyone expects. Sweet Sixteen.

**Notes:
Lack of good teams from the mid-majors is likely to send a record number of at-large teams from teh Big 6 conferences. Big East has a chance to send at least 7 but maybe 8. ACC could send as many as 8. Big 10 could send 7. Big XII could send 6. Pac 10, SEC could both be sending 5 teams each. If each conference sends their above listed max's, discounting the automatic bid, thats 33 at-large bids taken by the big six conferences out of 34 spots. MVC will probably be the only non-big six conference to send more than one team.

Mid-majors that will make the tourney even if they lose their conference championship: Xavier, Gonzaga, Memphis, Creighton. So thats potentially four at-large bids that can be snagged from the Big Six conferences if they do not win their conference tournaments. Root for the underdog people, Im a big Major conference supporter but Im also a firm believer that to even be considered the following TWO criteria must be met first: 20 wins AND .500 or better conference record. Thus, Notre Dame and Georgetown should in no way shape or form even have a remote shot at going to the NCAA's outside of winning their conference tournament.

Let's get the Madness started!
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Old 03-06-2009, 09:51 PM   #2
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Old 03-06-2009, 09:56 PM   #3
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The Colorado Buffaloes are gonna shock everyone by winning the Big 12 tournament then winning 6 more after that.
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Old 03-07-2009, 12:22 AM   #4
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We gonna take down UW tomorrow. So that should count towards our bid as if they were retroactively looking at how to do it from the end of the season!
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Old 03-07-2009, 05:25 AM   #5
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Old 03-07-2009, 05:48 AM   #6
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"Im gonna make some predictions here:
No one from the Big East wins it all. Only one Big East team makes it to the Final Four.

UNC does not win it all, odds of Final Four 75%.

OU bows out in the Elite 8.

Mizzou tanks in the second round.

Michigan State makes the final Four **If they remain healthy

Memphis does not make it 4 straight years to the Elite 8 (or beyond) and bows out in the Sweet Sixteen.

Duke makes a serious run but ultimately falls just short.

KU gets to the sweet sixteen (Elite 8 if they get a 2 or 3 seed, SS if they get a 4 seed).

No national champion prediction yet. Have to see the brackets because this year, unlike last year, is completely wide open IMO.

Oh, Louisville will NOT make the Final Four. No team in the history of the 64 team era that has been beaten by more than 20 points (lost by 30 to Notre Dame) has ever made it to the Final Four.

Kentucky gets in because of name not merit.

Florida goes back to the NIT. How the mighty have fallen.

LSU, the best the SEC has, doesnt make it out of the opening weekend."




1. Connecticut (67) 27-2 1,792

2. North Carolina (3) 25-3 1,678
3. Pittsburgh (1) 26-3 1,612
4. Oklahoma 26-3 1,576
5. Memphis (1) 26-3 1,543
6. Louisville 23-5 1,462
7. Duke 24-5 1,340
8. Michigan State 23-5 1,302
9. Kansas 24-5 1,190
10. Wake Forest 22-5 1,158
11. Villanova 23-6 913
12. LSU 25-4 894
13. Marquette 23-6 860
14. Gonzaga 23-5 837
15. Missouri 24-5 795
16. Washington 22-7 704
17. Xavier 23-5 629
18. Clemson 22-6 564
19. Purdue 22-7 545
20. UCLA 22-7 497
21. Arizona State 21-7 347
22. Butler 25-4 302
23. Illinois 23-7 287
24. Florida State 22-7 272
25. Syracuse 21-8 99



RockChalk - You eliminated quite a bit.

I think UCONN and PITT are going to be tough outs. But, either team could struggle with foul trouble and both have a hard time getting back against teams that like to push the ball/tempo.

If UNC can play defense for 6 games and stays healthy (Lawson hurt his big toe in practice yesterday), they will be tough to beat.

OU is alot better that I thought they were, but I still havn't seen enough of them to feel comfortable making a prediction.

Memphis - Hilarious.

Lousiville - I've seen them look unbeatable and I've seen them look horrible.

dook - The tourney is played in March, right? Nope.

I don't think it's as wide open as some suggest, but I could see a couple teams like Mich st, Kansas, Mizzou, Wake, Clemson, LSU, or Washington making a deep run.
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Old 03-07-2009, 05:58 AM   #7
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See, I knew there was a reason I liked you other than b/c you're a good dude!!!

Mmmmm CAROLINA!!! Daa-da-da
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Old 03-07-2009, 06:21 AM   #8
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Pitt in the Big East will make a legit run. Duke and UNC will likely be 1 & 2 in the same bracket as they plan to align the brackets with the economy in mind. Similar to what they did for the bowl games.
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Old 03-07-2009, 08:53 AM   #9
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If it stands right now Alex, Duke will get the 3rd Two Seed and UNC will get the 2nd 1 seed. The committee seeds based on the S Curve (1st 1 seed gets the 4th two seed and 1st 3 seed and 4th 5 seed, and so on). If UNC gets the 2nd 1 seed, they will draw the 3rd two seed which would be Puke.

Concerning UNC cousina said "If they can play defense for 6 games" and therein lies the problem. UNC will not get to play the first 4 games all in NC this year. Only the first two games. Then tehy have to actually go on the road. Lawson being hurt is a problem, but the bigger issue with UNC is Ginyard being down for the year. Easily the best defender on the court for UNC and the most consistent of all their players.

UNC has yet to play 2 straight games of solid defense, and why I am picking them to not win it all. Their offense is nearly unstoppable but you have to play defense in the tournament because the odds are really good you re not going to be shooting lights out for 6 straight games against progressively harder competition.

Take last year's final two teams, Memphis and KU. Rated 1 and 2 in defense in the nation and both were top 20 offensive teams. KU stiffled UNC's #1 rated offense last year in a blowout victory. It was a combination of KU's defense and UNC having a poor shooting night that led to their downfall. I see a similar situation with them this year only their offense isnt as good as it was last year and the defense might be worse.

Of all the Big East teams, UConn does IMO have the best shot at winning it all. Pitt is supposed to be a major player every year but they cant get past the Sweet Sixteen. I do like Dejuan Blair, that guy is an animal.

I picked OU to bow out before the Final Four because Capel hasnt figured out how to play that team correctly. With Griffin the entire game goes through him. But when he was out (they lost both those games, but follow me here) the rest of the guys showed that they can play ball. Warren, Crocker and Austin Johnson are a trio of really good guards. The problem with them is that when Griffin is on the court he is unstoppable and everyone defers to him. Its gotta be a more balanced effort from OU and they need to play better defense.
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Old 03-07-2009, 09:58 AM   #10
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Kansas SUCKS
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Old 03-07-2009, 10:01 AM   #11
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Old 03-07-2009, 10:12 AM   #12
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You are such a homer for KU it is so funny. They wont make it past the sweet 16.

Arizona State has a great chance to make a run. I think they go as far as the elite 8 and if they get a favorable match up they can get into that Final 4.

Washington has been real good this year and will make a run as well.

I really hope Arizona can somehow squeak into the tourney, but that loss the other night hurts a bunch, so we will see.
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Old 03-07-2009, 10:37 AM   #13
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LSU, the best the SEC has, doesnt make it out of the opening weekend.
Arkansas, the worse the SEC has, beat OU and Texas this year. We're 2-0 vs the Big 12, baby!
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Old 03-07-2009, 11:44 AM   #14
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We are going to do another Bracket here on the Om this year right?
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Old 03-07-2009, 11:50 AM   #15
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I can't recall a year that generated less interest in college hoops than this one. There are no great teams, and no sleepers that you can get behind and pull for. College bball has become a really mediocre product. Hope it gets better.
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Old 03-07-2009, 11:57 AM   #16
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You guys are ridiculous. Just dismissing Memphis because of the quality of the conference? Have either of you actually watched Memphis play a game this year? OR did you just see the Georgetown and Syracuse scores from December and assume the team was crappy?

Since that Syracuse game, we moved Tyreke Evans to PG, and this has been a completely different team. We Destroyed Gonzaga on the road. Now that Evans is running the offense, we're able to beat zone defenses and get the offense rolling through his penetration.

Comparing this year's team to last year's, we lack the pure scoring ability of CDR, but Evans has really become a go-to guy. While Evans isn't as freakishly athletic as Derrick Rose, he is 4 inches taller with insanely long arms. NO ONE in the tournament can match up with our defensive length. The shortest guy in our starting lineup is 6'6". I would love to see a Michigan State or UNC try to score against that. The ONLY team in the tournament that could really give us trouble is UConn, but Thabeet isn't offensively dominant enough to really hurt us.

Memphis is going places. Elite Eight for sure. Final Four likely. This defense will shut down your big conference darlings.
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Old 03-07-2009, 12:00 PM   #17
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Michigan beat Minnesota today 67-64.

That puts them at 19-12 overall and 9-9 in the Big Ten.

Will a few wins in the conference tournament be enough to get in?

I know they beat Duke and UCLA earlier in the year.
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Old 03-07-2009, 12:31 PM   #18
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You guys are ridiculous. Just dismissing Memphis because of the quality of the conference? Have either of you actually watched Memphis play a game this year? OR did you just see the Georgetown and Syracuse scores from December and assume the team was crappy?

Since that Syracuse game, we moved Tyreke Evans to PG, and this has been a completely different team. We Destroyed Gonzaga on the road. Now that Evans is running the offense, we're able to beat zone defenses and get the offense rolling through his penetration.

Comparing this year's team to last year's, we lack the pure scoring ability of CDR, but Evans has really become a go-to guy. While Evans isn't as freakishly athletic as Derrick Rose, he is 4 inches taller with insanely long arms. NO ONE in the tournament can match up with our defensive length. The shortest guy in our starting lineup is 6'6". I would love to see a Michigan State or UNC try to score against that. The ONLY team in the tournament that could really give us trouble is UConn, but Thabeet isn't offensively dominant enough to really hurt us.

Memphis is going places. Elite Eight for sure. Final Four likely. This defense will shut down your big conference darlings.

Guess there is no real bias there eh?
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Old 03-07-2009, 12:38 PM   #19
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<---- need i say more?
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Old 03-07-2009, 12:58 PM   #20
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You guys are ridiculous. Just dismissing Memphis because of the quality of the conference? Have either of you actually watched Memphis play a game this year? OR did you just see the Georgetown and Syracuse scores from December and assume the team was crappy?

Since that Syracuse game, we moved Tyreke Evans to PG, and this has been a completely different team. We Destroyed Gonzaga on the road. Now that Evans is running the offense, we're able to beat zone defenses and get the offense rolling through his penetration.

Comparing this year's team to last year's, we lack the pure scoring ability of CDR, but Evans has really become a go-to guy. While Evans isn't as freakishly athletic as Derrick Rose, he is 4 inches taller with insanely long arms. NO ONE in the tournament can match up with our defensive length. The shortest guy in our starting lineup is 6'6". I would love to see a Michigan State or UNC try to score against that. The ONLY team in the tournament that could really give us trouble is UConn, but Thabeet isn't offensively dominant enough to really hurt us.

Memphis is going places. Elite Eight for sure. Final Four likely. This defense will shut down your big conference darlings.
Ive watched Memphis struggle in Conference USA. So yeah. Ive seen Memphis about 8 times this year and they do not look impressive. Last year's memphis team was awesome. This year's memphis team is not.

Im realistic about KU this year. They got a chance to get to the Elite 8 but Im thinking Sweet Sixteen. I even said so.

KU sucks oubronco? They did beat Oklahoma. Sure they didnt have Griffin in, but they beat Oklahoma in Norman.

OU sucks. They couldnt even make it a game in Mizzou. They lost to freakin Arkansas (as Arkie so notably pointed out, btw Arkie, beating Texas isnt all that impressive, the OU win I'll give you though).
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Old 03-07-2009, 01:00 PM   #21
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Michigan beat Minnesota today 67-64.

That puts them at 19-12 overall and 9-9 in the Big Ten.

Will a few wins in the conference tournament be enough to get in?

I know they beat Duke and UCLA earlier in the year.
The Duke and UCLA wins and at least 1 win in their conference tourney SHOULD get them in. Right now I would say they deserve it, but they need at least one more win, preferably two to fulfill MY requirements for a tourney seed (20 wins, over .500 in conference, 2 wins puts them at one game over .500 and over 20 wins plus the two big OOC wins).
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Old 03-07-2009, 01:02 PM   #22
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You guys are ridiculous. Just dismissing Memphis because of the quality of the conference? Have either of you actually watched Memphis play a game this year? OR did you just see the Georgetown and Syracuse scores from December and assume the team was crappy?

Since that Syracuse game, we moved Tyreke Evans to PG, and this has been a completely different team. We Destroyed Gonzaga on the road. Now that Evans is running the offense, we're able to beat zone defenses and get the offense rolling through his penetration.

Comparing this year's team to last year's, we lack the pure scoring ability of CDR, but Evans has really become a go-to guy. While Evans isn't as freakishly athletic as Derrick Rose, he is 4 inches taller with insanely long arms. NO ONE in the tournament can match up with our defensive length. The shortest guy in our starting lineup is 6'6". I would love to see a Michigan State or UNC try to score against that. The ONLY team in the tournament that could really give us trouble is UConn, but Thabeet isn't offensively dominant enough to really hurt us.

Memphis is going places. Elite Eight for sure. Final Four likely. This defense will shut down your big conference darlings.
Also chickenob, Ive heard the Evans move to PG argument a crapload but the fact is, memphis hasnt played ANYONE since Evans moved to PG except another mid-major on the road in Gonzaga. That was an impressive win sure, but its the ONLY impressive win on Memphis' resume and they have struggled mightily in conference. Getting the wins is nice, and their streak is impressive, but they are far from impressive in winning.

And as for UConn being the only team to give you trouble. HAHAHAHAHA. Pitt would stomp a mudhole in your team. Evans is good but in no way does he match up with Fields and there is no one on Memphis that can stop Blair and Young. That's just crazy.

Memphis has no one to answer for Blake Griffin either. And UNC would stomp a mudhole in Memphis. KU could beat Memphis, Louisville can beat Memphis, Nova, Clemson, Wake Forest, Duke, there are so many teams better than Memphis.
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Old 03-07-2009, 05:19 PM   #23
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Also chickenob, Ive heard the Evans move to PG argument a crapload but the fact is, memphis hasnt played ANYONE since Evans moved to PG except another mid-major on the road in Gonzaga. That was an impressive win sure, but its the ONLY impressive win on Memphis' resume and they have struggled mightily in conference. Getting the wins is nice, and their streak is impressive, but they are far from impressive in winning.

And as for UConn being the only team to give you trouble. HAHAHAHAHA. Pitt would stomp a mudhole in your team. Evans is good but in no way does he match up with Fields and there is no one on Memphis that can stop Blair and Young. That's just crazy.

Memphis has no one to answer for Blake Griffin either. And UNC would stomp a mudhole in Memphis. KU could beat Memphis, Louisville can beat Memphis, Nova, Clemson, Wake Forest, Duke, there are so many teams better than Memphis.
This is crap and you know it. "Memphis has struggled to win conference games."

Let's see, 2008-2009 conference games Memphis has won by less than 10 points:
at Central Florida - 73-66
at Tulsa - 55-54 (A tulsa team we beat in the second meeting 63-37)
at Houston - 69-60

2007-2008 conference games Memphis won by less than 10 points:
UTEP 70-64
Houston 68-59
at UAB 79-78
at Southern Miss 76-67

So, tell me all about how this year's team struggled to win C-USA games, and how that means they're so much worse than last year's Memphis team.

The difference in last year's "amazing" team and this year's team? Trading Rose for Evans, losing a great scorer in CDR, and losing a 6'6" center who could rebound. Evans is a much better defensive player than Rose, CDR's scoring has been replaced by a number of players, and Dozier/Taggart/Niles have picked up the rebounding we lost with Dorsey.

If you remember last year, conventional wisdom was that we would lose to Michigan State in the third round (92-74), and that Texas would wipe the floor with Memphis in the Elite 8 (85-67). Now you give this huge list of teams that are "better than Memphis." Talk to me in a month. This team is absolutely making the Elite 8. Beyond that, we will go however far Tyreke's talent and Antonio Anderson's leadership will take us. And don't underestimate one of the best coaches in college basketball.


Also, with two wins in the conference tournament, seniors Antonio Aderson and Robert Dozier will be the winningest college basketball players EVER. They currently sit at 132 career wins. Incredible.

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Old 03-07-2009, 05:33 PM   #24
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This is crap and you know it. "Memphis has struggled to win conference games."

Let's see, 2008-2009 conference games Memphis has won by less than 10 points:
at Central Florida - 73-66
at Tulsa - 55-54 (A tulsa team we beat in the second meeting 63-37)
at Houston - 69-60

2007-2008 conference games Memphis won by less than 10 points:
UTEP 70-64
Houston 68-59
at UAB 79-78
at Southern Miss 76-67

So, tell me all about how this year's team struggled to win C-USA games, and how that means they're so much worse than last year's Memphis team.

The difference in last year's "amazing" team and this year's team? Trading Rose for Evans, losing a great scorer in CDR, and losing a 6'6" center who could rebound. Evans is a much better defensive player than Rose, CDR's scoring has been replaced by a number of players, and Dozier/Taggart/Niles have picked up the rebounding we lost with Dorsey.

If you remember last year, conventional wisdom was that we would lose to Michigan State in the third round (92-74), and that Texas would wipe the floor with Memphis in the Elite 8 (85-67). Now you give this huge list of teams that are "better than Memphis." Talk to me in a month. This team is absolutely making the Elite 8. Beyond that, we will go however far Tyreke's talent and Antonio Anderson's leadership will take us. And don't underestimate one of the best coaches in college basketball.


Also, with two wins in the conference tournament, seniors Antonio Aderson and Robert Dozier will be the winningest college basketball players EVER. They currently sit at 131 career wins. Incredible.
First, I didnt say struggle to win. I just said struggled. UTEP, UAB and Houston are all prime examples of how they have struggled in games. UTEP controlled a good portion of that game.

Re: Convetional Wisdom and MSU. I figured Memphis for a Final Four team last year. They proved themselves to me and most knowledgeable basketball fans with their impressive non-conference schedule and wins. This year, they lost to Syracuse, and Georgetown and Texas A&M. Of which only Syracuse is ranked and they are ranked lowly, and Georgetown isnt even going to the tournament. They have one good resume win in Gonzaga on the road but this is also not the same Gonzaga of recent years. They, while still good, are not a great team.

Defensively, Memphis is still a fantastic team. However, they also have struggled against teams with size in the paint. Without Dorsey banging down low and without the incredible scoring threat of Rose and CDR combo, they are just not nearly as explosive offensively as they were last year. While Evans is a good rookie, he isnt even in the same class as Rose and will need to play at least another year in College if he wants to go in the first round of the draft.

And Niles is crap. Taggart is good but he is no Dorsey and he sure as hell cannot make up even the combined combo you mentioned, for what CDR did for Memphis last year.

Wow, what an accomplishment. Be the two winningest players in BB history and not one single championship to show for it. Id be more impressed if Memphis could even come close to what they have done if they played in a conference that was even remotely competitive. Memphis would not even go undefeated in the SEC and it sucks this year. Thats not a knock of Memphis, its just that tough in the real conferences.

Memphis is also in a bit of a jam when it comes to conferences. The SEC for the most part is a football conference and wont take Memphis in. The ACC is a BB conference but they have repeatedly said they want no more teams. The Big East already needs to be broken up and split into two conferences because they have several issues. When they raided CUSA for Louisville, Marquette and a few other teams, they screwed themselves. Memphis has nowhere to go. The Big 10 is basically the midwest and the Big 12 is the heartland. The Pac 10 is the West coast. None of those are geographically ideal for Memphis to play in so they are stuck forever in CUSA unless the Big East breaks up.

Memphis will never get the respect they want. Mostly because Memphis fans are the biggest whiners on the planet. being ranked #1 most of last year, being talked about all the time, being lauded by the press, still wasnt enough for them. This year, when the press actually doubts them, Memphis fans think they can beat everyone in the nation every time. Sorry, but they aren't that good. They are a top 10 team IMO, but they are not a FF team and I think they are going to run into a team that cna play defense AND score.

You dont have to agree with me. I dont expect you to. Memphis fans arent known for their rational thinking. Just understand that most knowledgeable basketball fans have legitimate reasons to be skeptical of Memphis this year. Not last year, this year.
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Old 03-07-2009, 05:39 PM   #25
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