Staying at #12 is looking like bad news - The Orange Mane

ZONA · 03-06-2009, 12:30 PM

I have reviewed every player in the 1st round on almost all mock drafts there are and tried to see how they would fit in with the Broncos and then take in account where we would draft them.

The draft is about 2 things. Getting a player you need and getting value.

I don't think you will see much movement in the top 5 slots. The teams slotted to pick there I think will stay because I don't think most teams will want to move up that high. So picks 6-15 I think is where alot of teams would like to be. I believe the Broncos will be contacted for a trade for that 12th pick and I think it makes the most sense based on what players I think will be there versus our teams needs.

When I look at all the players projected to go in the 1st round, these 14 guys below to me will surely go in the top 14. From 15-20 I think that's where it starts to get tricky and some surprises picks can show up.

QB Matt Stafford
LB, Aaron Curry
DT, B. J. Raji
DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OT, Jason Smith
WR, Michael Crabtree
OT, Eugene Monroe
WR, Jeremy Maclin
OT, Michael Oher
OLB, Everette Brown
LB, Brian Cushing
CB, Vontae Davis
TE, Brandon Pettigrew
DT, Peria Jerry

I have no doubts that Stafford, Raji, Curry, Smith and Crabtree will be the top 5 picks.

So that leaves these 9 guys at 6-14

DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OT, Eugene Monroe
WR, Jeremy Maclin
OT, Michael Oher
OLB, Everette Brown
LB, Brian Cushing
CB, Vontae Davis
TE, Brandon Pettigrew
DT, Peria Jerry

We don't need any OT's, WR's, or TE's. That would not be a value pick for us.

So that leaves these 5 players left who would give us the most value because we need to improve our defense.

DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OLB, Everette Brown
LB, Brian Cushing
CB, Vontae Davis
DT, Peria Jerry

But here is my big stink. I think with the 12th pick, none of these guys to me are a lock in our system and we already have some guys on our team that have skills similar.

Everette Brown - When looking at this strengths & weaknesses, he compares to Doom quite a bit. More suited for pass rush, decent against the run but struggles dropping back into coverage. Not the best value for us at #12 because we have somebody pretty close to that already.

Brian Cushing - Sure, we could use a LB like him no doubt. But with Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin who are so very close in talent and physical ability that can be had at a much lower pick, again, we lose the value picking any of these guys at #12.

Brian Orakpo - This pick would kinda scare me. It's said he isn't the most gifted athelete and truly doesn't do any one thing great. But instead is a solid player in alot of areas. We drafted a DE from Texas not long ago with those same tags on him and Crowder has showed us that review of him was dead on. To me, not so much about value here but not sure taking a risk on a guy with not much upside in terms of him already peaking physically would be a smart move at #12.

Peria Jerry - I can't help but think he is a slightly bigger version of Marcus Thomas. Not a true run plugging strong NT but instead more of a penetrating NT who depends more on hands, speed and moves then he does pure brute size and strength. If we can't move down, I could live with this pick because I think he would handle the NT better then anybody we have but the value isn't great here because he isn't the "type" of NT we are looking for and the fact Thomas is somewhat close to the same type of player, value is a little shady at #12.

Vontae Davis - Fast, great cover guy, doesn't have a whole lot of weaknesses to his game. With a dominant CB on our team already, again, having 2 seems a little overkill when you have so much need on the DL. A solid player who I think will be a great player soon in the NFL, his value for us would be okay. Not what we would prefer, but okay.

So to me, the value truly is in moving down because then we would get additional picks to help build depth and it would allow us to pick up a player close to these top guys lower in the 1st.

I think the top 2 guys on my board for value to this team if we had to stay at 12 and the 5 guys just above were available, I would have to say Davis and Perry would be our best choices and provide us the best VALUE at #12.

Man-Goblin · 03-06-2009, 12:32 PM

I wouldn't be so quick to rule out WR.

Peoples Champ · 03-06-2009, 12:35 PM

There are sleepers and busts at every pick in every round

vancejohnson82 · 03-06-2009, 12:38 PM

where is Rey Rey??

ZONA · 03-06-2009, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peoples Champ

There are sleepers and busts at every pick in every round

No duh, there is no way you factor that in who you pick because nobody knows who the sleepers or busts are. So then you look to value and need.

cousinal11 · 03-06-2009, 12:39 PM

Orakpo is a freak. He would be an absolute steal at 12.

socalorado · 03-06-2009, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peoples Champ

There are sleepers and busts at every pick in every round

YEAH! Quit yer b****in!

I say Cushing. He can play outside or inside.

ZONA · 03-06-2009, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vancejohnson82

where is Rey Rey??

Dude, that is what I am talking about. Did you not read this part:

Brian Cushing - Sure, we could use a LB like him no doubt. But with Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin who are so very close in talent and physical ability that can be had at a much lower pick, again, we lose the value picking any of these guys at #12.

Rey Rey is projected 20-25.

Again, you have so many LB's similar (Cushing, Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin) who are so very close in talent, it doesn't make sense to take any one of them at #12 when you could get the ones left on the board around #25.

socalorado · 03-06-2009, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZONA

Dude, that is what I am talking about. Did you not read this part:

Brian Cushing - Sure, we could use a LB like him no doubt. But with Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin who are so very close in talent and physical ability that can be had at a much lower pick, again, we lose the value picking any of these guys at #12.

Rey Rey is projected 20-25.

Again, you have so many LB's similar (Cushing, Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin) who are so very close in talent, it doesn't make sense to take any one of them at #12 when you could get the ones left on the board around #25.

Hey dude, DEN is just going to have to grow a pair, man up and pick one!

barryr · 03-06-2009, 12:42 PM

The Broncos need a guy that can get pressure on the QB, either at a DL spot or an OLB spot if in a 3-4 defense. To me, that's the biggest need.

If going with a 3-4, if Dumervil stays, which is a big if, they need another rusher on the other side. The best 3-4 defenses have 2 OLB's that give the OL trouble in the passing game.

Dukes · 03-06-2009, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cousinal11

Orakpo is a freak. He would be an absolute steal at 12.

Except he plays for UT

vancejohnson82 · 03-06-2009, 12:44 PM

You're evaluation of Rey is off....

That's just my opinion but I put him in the 11-16 range

bap454 · 03-06-2009, 12:47 PM

Great thread. I have this bad gut feeling (these are usually spot on) that we are stuck between a rock and a hard place. While thinking that if the draft falls the way it should. We will have to make our defualt pick between Jackson from LSU or Rey M. from USC. While I think there is a good chance Raji will fall to us, I think ultimately that Orakpo and Bj will go right before we pick. Im scarred.

Peoples Champ · 03-06-2009, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZONA

No duh, there is no way you factor that in who you pick because nobody knows who the sleepers or busts are. So then you look to value and need.

Right, which is why I wouldnt worry about having the 12th pick, or the 5th or the 19th or the 25th, or the 1st.

No need to get worried about having the 12th pick, we just have to hope the coaching staff will pick what they think is the best player at the position we need most. We can criticize or praise the coaches on our opinions after they pick. No need to get hyped about how good/bad the 12th pick is.

Triplelefthook · 03-06-2009, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZONA

Dude, that is what I am talking about. Did you not read this part:

Brian Cushing - Sure, we could use a LB like him no doubt. But with Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin who are so very close in talent and physical ability that can be had at a much lower pick, again, we lose the value picking any of these guys at #12.

Rey Rey is projected 20-25.

Again, you have so many LB's similar (Cushing, Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin) who are so very close in talent, it doesn't make sense to take any one of them at #12 when you could get the ones left on the board around #25.

If we are going to take a LB in the first round, he had better be able to rush the passer... my hope would be Cushing from that standpoint.

I am a big subscriber to the University of Texas Bust Theory.... just look at everyone that has come out of that University since Ricky Williams and look how their pro career has gone. I would say no to Orakpo as well.

Looking at it this way I kind of hope we don't stay at #12 this year, move up or move down.

And can we please not call any more football players "Rey-Rey" or any variation unless you are doing so to mock them?

ZONA · 03-06-2009, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cousinal11

Orakpo is a freak. He would be an absolute steal at 12.

He's not a freak dude. Brown is a much more gifted athlete then Orakpo is. Orakpo is gifted but I think he is much more in the lines of a Simeon Rice type of DE. A true undersized DE suite to play the weakside in a 4-3. I think he could do okay in the NFL in a 3-4 but I don't think that's where he would excell. To me, yeah, I could live with him if we couldn't move down, but I'd still rather have Perry or Davis instead of him if all 3 were available at #12. Just because some mock drafts have him slated around 8-10 or so doesn't mean he's a great value for us at #12.

CBF1 · 03-06-2009, 12:51 PM

Finding a partner to trade back with and get equal value is easier said than done.

vancejohnson82 · 03-06-2009, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Triplelefthook

And can we please not call any more football players "Rey-Rey" or any variation unless you are doing so to mock them?

No No, Way Way

barryr · 03-06-2009, 12:56 PM

What about Sintim from Virginia? He's an DE/OLB hybrid type who put up good numbers.

Triplelefthook · 03-06-2009, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vancejohnson82

No No, Way Way

it's very gay-gay

ZONA · 03-06-2009, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBF1

Finding a partner to trade back with and get equal value is easier said than done.

True, you have to have I think several teams wanting your spot for a deal to go through because if you have just one team asking, you basically almost have to accept their terms. But I think in the past more teams wanted to get into the top 10 where as now, I think most teams will want 10-15 just so they can get some relief from those huge contracts. I think if some of these top rated OT's still on the board, we could very well see some teams trying to move up to our slot to get one. OT is still regarded as a premier position. And there are 3 or 4 guys at OT I think that could go in the top 15.

Rohirrim · 03-06-2009, 01:00 PM

I wouldn't be sad if we traded down with the Vikes for their #54 and next year's fourth and picked Clay Matthews at 22. We could watch Bellychuck squeal when we stole his player right from under his nose. Then with the #48 and #54 we could walk away with Ayers and Jarius Byrd. Works for me.

ZONA · 03-06-2009, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barryr

What about Sintim from Virginia? He's an DE/OLB hybrid type who put up good numbers.

See, now that's what this thread is all about. Moving out of #12, getting a pick or 2 extra and getting a player like this is what you call VALUE and addressing your needs.

Well done mate.

socalorado · 03-06-2009, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

I wouldn't be sad if we traded down with the Vikes for their #54 and next year's fourth and picked Clay Matthews. We could watch Bellychuck squeal when we stole his player right from under his nose. Then with the #48 and #54 we could walk away with Ayers and Jarius Byrd. Works for me.

Get Cushing at #12.
I think CMathews will be there at #48
Or maybe package some pics to move up into the top of the 2nd round and get Cmathews.

oubronco · 03-06-2009, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dukes

Except he plays for UT

I hope that with a REAL Defensive coach Crowder will come to life

03-06-2009, 01:00 PM	#22
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,856	I wouldn't be sad if we traded down with the Vikes for their #54 and next year's fourth and picked Clay Matthews at 22. We could watch Bellychuck squeal when we stole his player right from under his nose. Then with the #48 and #54 we could walk away with Ayers and Jarius Byrd. Works for me. Last edited by Rohirrim; 03-06-2009 at 01:17 PM..

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03-06-2009, 12:30 PM	#1
ZONA Ring of Famer Liquid greatness in every packet Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 7,411 Adopt-a-Bronco: Chris Harris	Staying at #12 is looking like bad news I have reviewed every player in the 1st round on almost all mock drafts there are and tried to see how they would fit in with the Broncos and then take in account where we would draft them. The draft is about 2 things. Getting a player you need and getting value. I don't think you will see much movement in the top 5 slots. The teams slotted to pick there I think will stay because I don't think most teams will want to move up that high. So picks 6-15 I think is where alot of teams would like to be. I believe the Broncos will be contacted for a trade for that 12th pick and I think it makes the most sense based on what players I think will be there versus our teams needs. When I look at all the players projected to go in the 1st round, these 14 guys below to me will surely go in the top 14. From 15-20 I think that's where it starts to get tricky and some surprises picks can show up. QB Matt Stafford LB, Aaron Curry DT, B. J. Raji DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo OT, Jason Smith WR, Michael Crabtree OT, Eugene Monroe WR, Jeremy Maclin OT, Michael Oher OLB, Everette Brown LB, Brian Cushing CB, Vontae Davis TE, Brandon Pettigrew DT, Peria Jerry I have no doubts that Stafford, Raji, Curry, Smith and Crabtree will be the top 5 picks. So that leaves these 9 guys at 6-14 DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo OT, Eugene Monroe WR, Jeremy Maclin OT, Michael Oher OLB, Everette Brown LB, Brian Cushing CB, Vontae Davis TE, Brandon Pettigrew DT, Peria Jerry We don't need any OT's, WR's, or TE's. That would not be a value pick for us. So that leaves these 5 players left who would give us the most value because we need to improve our defense. DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo OLB, Everette Brown LB, Brian Cushing CB, Vontae Davis DT, Peria Jerry But here is my big stink. I think with the 12th pick, none of these guys to me are a lock in our system and we already have some guys on our team that have skills similar. Everette Brown - When looking at this strengths & weaknesses, he compares to Doom quite a bit. More suited for pass rush, decent against the run but struggles dropping back into coverage. Not the best value for us at #12 because we have somebody pretty close to that already. Brian Cushing - Sure, we could use a LB like him no doubt. But with Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin who are so very close in talent and physical ability that can be had at a much lower pick, again, we lose the value picking any of these guys at #12. Brian Orakpo - This pick would kinda scare me. It's said he isn't the most gifted athelete and truly doesn't do any one thing great. But instead is a solid player in alot of areas. We drafted a DE from Texas not long ago with those same tags on him and Crowder has showed us that review of him was dead on. To me, not so much about value here but not sure taking a risk on a guy with not much upside in terms of him already peaking physically would be a smart move at #12. Peria Jerry - I can't help but think he is a slightly bigger version of Marcus Thomas. Not a true run plugging strong NT but instead more of a penetrating NT who depends more on hands, speed and moves then he does pure brute size and strength. If we can't move down, I could live with this pick because I think he would handle the NT better then anybody we have but the value isn't great here because he isn't the "type" of NT we are looking for and the fact Thomas is somewhat close to the same type of player, value is a little shady at #12. Vontae Davis - Fast, great cover guy, doesn't have a whole lot of weaknesses to his game. With a dominant CB on our team already, again, having 2 seems a little overkill when you have so much need on the DL. A solid player who I think will be a great player soon in the NFL, his value for us would be okay. Not what we would prefer, but okay. So to me, the value truly is in moving down because then we would get additional picks to help build depth and it would allow us to pick up a player close to these top guys lower in the 1st. I think the top 2 guys on my board for value to this team if we had to stay at 12 and the 5 guys just above were available, I would have to say Davis and Perry would be our best choices and provide us the best VALUE at #12. Last edited by ZONA; 03-06-2009 at 12:35 PM..

03-06-2009, 12:32 PM	#2
Man-Goblin Giving You The Business Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Huntersville, NC Posts: 5,590 Adopt-a-Bronco: Woodyard	I wouldn't be so quick to rule out WR.

03-06-2009, 12:35 PM	#3
Peoples Champ Ring of Famer New to the Forum Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Orange County Posts: 3,100 Adopt-a-Bronco: Champ Bailey	There are sleepers and busts at every pick in every round

03-06-2009, 12:38 PM	#4
vancejohnson82 Drama and Mediocrity I'm Afraid of Ty Law Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Newark, NJ Posts: 5,990 Adopt-a-Bronco: DJ	where is Rey Rey??

03-06-2009, 12:39 PM	#6
cousinal11 East Coast Bronco Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Greenville, NC Posts: 1,203 Adopt-a-Bronco: Joel Dresseen	Orakpo is a freak. He would be an absolute steal at 12.

03-06-2009, 12:42 PM	#10
barryr Ring of Famer New to the Forum Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 8,269 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	The Broncos need a guy that can get pressure on the QB, either at a DL spot or an OLB spot if in a 3-4 defense. To me, that's the biggest need. If going with a 3-4, if Dumervil stays, which is a big if, they need another rusher on the other side. The best 3-4 defenses have 2 OLB's that give the OL trouble in the passing game.

03-06-2009, 12:44 PM	#12
vancejohnson82 Drama and Mediocrity I'm Afraid of Ty Law Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Newark, NJ Posts: 5,990 Adopt-a-Bronco: DJ	You're evaluation of Rey is off.... That's just my opinion but I put him in the 11-16 range

03-06-2009, 12:47 PM	#13
bap454 Perennial Pro-bowler Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 984 Adopt-a-Bronco: Wesley Woodyard	Great thread. I have this bad gut feeling (these are usually spot on) that we are stuck between a rock and a hard place. While thinking that if the draft falls the way it should. We will have to make our defualt pick between Jackson from LSU or Rey M. from USC. While I think there is a good chance Raji will fall to us, I think ultimately that Orakpo and Bj will go right before we pick. Im scarred.

03-06-2009, 12:51 PM	#17
CBF1 Ring of Famer No avatar is the new avatar Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: SoCal Posts: 14,907 Adopt-a-Bronco: Jack Del rio	Finding a partner to trade back with and get equal value is easier said than done.

03-06-2009, 12:56 PM	#19
barryr Ring of Famer New to the Forum Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 8,269 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	What about Sintim from Virginia? He's an DE/OLB hybrid type who put up good numbers.