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Old 02-25-2009, 07:37 AM   #1
Rohirrim
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Default The Truth is Out There

We are not alone. The thought of this being true gives me a weird paradigm shift, probabaly similar to what people felt when Galileo told them the Earth was not the center of the solar system. It seems to me one of our cultural pinnacles in Judeo-Christian thought that there is one God and one people. Now it appears there may be one God, but many people, or whatnot.

Researchers at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland constructed a computer model to create a synthetic galaxy with billions of stars and planets. They then studied how life evolved under various conditions in this virtual world, using a supercomputer to crunch the results.

In a paper published recently in the International Journal of Astrobiology, the researchers concluded that based on what they saw, at least 361 intelligent civilizations have emerged in the Milky Way since its creation, and as many as 38,000 may have formed.

Duncan Forgan, a doctoral candidate at the university who led the study, said he was surprised by the hardiness of life on these other worlds.

"The computer model takes into account what we refer to as resetting or extinction events. The classic example is the asteroid impact that may have wiped out the dinosaurs," Forgan said.

"I half-expected these events to disallow the rise of intelligence, and yet civilizations seemed to flourish."

http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/space/0...ler/index.html

Last edited by Rohirrim; 02-25-2009 at 07:41 AM..
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Old 02-25-2009, 07:43 AM   #2
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Hey, you gonna make your pick in the mock draft, or what?!?!
Your not alone, and everyone and their brother is waitin on you, numbnuts!
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Old 02-25-2009, 07:44 AM   #3
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I think they just played Spore for a while.
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Old 02-25-2009, 07:53 AM   #4
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I don't see how there wouldn't be other worlds, to be honest.
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Old 02-25-2009, 07:59 AM   #5
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I think they just played Spore for a while.
Yeah they probably were playing Civ IV online with each other and had to present something to show they were "working" during that period.
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Old 02-25-2009, 08:09 AM   #6
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Yeah they probably were playing Civ IV online with each other and had to present something to show they were "working" during that period.
Duncan Foragn won with a space race victory.
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Old 02-25-2009, 08:16 AM   #7
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Hey, you gonna make your pick in the mock draft, or what?!?!
Your not alone, and everyone and their brother is waitin on you, numbnuts!
The Monroe pick by the Lions threw me off.
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Old 02-25-2009, 08:18 AM   #8
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Old 02-25-2009, 08:21 AM   #9
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The Monroe pick by the Lions threw me off.
HA! I was just givin you a hard time!
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Old 02-25-2009, 08:26 AM   #10
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http://startswithabang.com/?p=952
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Old 02-25-2009, 09:09 AM   #11
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I knew it was going to only a matter of time until our resident alien chimed in.

WELCOME TO EARTH CLAVI
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Old 02-25-2009, 09:10 AM   #12
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I say bring one of them aliens in....they would break 3k in our "solar" system
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Old 02-25-2009, 12:20 PM   #13
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I say bring one of them aliens in....they would break 3k in our "solar" system
I wonder what football looks like on other planets.
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Old 02-25-2009, 01:50 PM   #14
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Duncan Foragn won with a space race victory.
Space Race is such a cheese dick victory.

Domination or nothing.
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Old 02-25-2009, 01:58 PM   #15
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I wonder what football looks like on other planets.
The ball is round, mostly white with black spots, and they play the game with their feet only.

Regards,
m.
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Old 02-25-2009, 02:06 PM   #16
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Modelling things like that is beyond pointless, if your uncertainty is between 0 and 38.000, how you have the gaul to state that 361 should have formed is beyond me.
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Old 02-25-2009, 02:22 PM   #17
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Modelling things like that is beyond pointless, if your uncertainty is between 0 and 38.000, how you have the gaul to state that 361 should have formed is beyond me.
I thought, given the short explanation, a solid arguement was made for the idea that there very well may be other civilizations in our own galaxy. If there are a 100 billion planets that could potentially host life, odds are we aren't the only one to do so.

That said, none of this seems particularly exact, but I think it's a worthwhile exercise nonetheless. The idea of other intelligent lifeforms evolving on other planets would make sense based on our knowledge of our own planet, it's just a bit of a mind**** to consider a civilization (with its own wars, and governments, and religions, and art) might be happening in this same galaxy as we speak. Or even that it might have already happened a billion years ago, before destroying itself. Someone need to invent hyperspeed quick, so we can start looking into this stuff.
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Old 02-25-2009, 02:28 PM   #18
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Yeah they probably were playing Civ IV online with each other and had to present something to show they were "working" during that period.
I just hope they remembered to make these calculations with the fact that Ceti Alpha 4 was destroyed.

Hate to see anyone land on Ceti-alpha 5 again.
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Old 02-25-2009, 02:36 PM   #19
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I thought, given the short explanation, a solid arguement was made for the idea that there very well may be other civilizations in our own galaxy. If there are a 100 billion planets that could potentially host life, odds are we aren't the only one to do so.

That said, none of this seems particularly exact, but I think it's a worthwhile exercise nonetheless. The idea of other intelligent lifeforms evolving on other planets would make sense based on our knowledge of our own planet, it's just a bit of a mind**** to consider a civilization (with its own wars, and governments, and religions, and art) might be happening in this same galaxy as we speak. Or even that it might have already happened a billion years ago, before destroying itself. Someone need to invent hyperspeed quick, so we can start looking into this stuff.
The argument for other intelligent or just multicelled life in our galaxy is the number of stars. The problem with a model like this is, what is the probability that life forms and that intelligent life evolves? We have no idea, because we have only 1 sample, so no matter what you do the main premise of such a model (which is the probability) is a blind guess.

Essentially this is like predicting the lottery, there is a certain chance that a number between 1 and 20 will be drawn on any given night. Beyond that you really can't say much no matter how many models you do.

Other studies have tried to model if there is another intelligent life form in the galaxy, what is the probability that they would have contacted us by now? answers range from in-****ing-probable to if they were here we would definitely know by now. The main difference in those studies is probability. Your assumption essentially defines the answer and that is the problem, the model will never say anything meaningful because the answer is so strongly dependent on a guess.

All you had to do was say, there are 10 to the 8-9th power stars in the galaxy, at least half are of a size and temperature that makes suitable for a biosphere not unlike ours, then you guess at the probability of having a rock-like planet in a temperature belt with the right mass to maintain an atmosphere and then you say given that number, life should have formed multiple places and if life forms we have to assume that at least some of the planets would have evolved multicelled lifeforms.
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Old 02-25-2009, 02:45 PM   #20
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The argument for other intelligent or just multicelled life in our galaxy is the number of stars. The problem with a model like this is, what is the probability that life forms and that intelligent life evolves? We have no idea, because we have only 1 sample, so no matter what you do the main premise of such a model (which is the probability) is a blind guess.

Essentially this is like predicting the lottery, there is a certain chance that a number between 1 and 20 will be drawn on any given night. Beyond that you really can't say much no matter how many models you do.

Other studies have tried to model if there is another intelligent life form in the galaxy, what is the probability that they would have contacted us by now? answers range from in-****ing-probable to if they were here we would definitely know by now. The main difference in those studies is probability. Your assumption essentially defines the answer and that is the problem, the model will never say anything meaningful because the answer is so strongly dependent on a guess.

All you had to do was say, there are 10 to the 8-9th power stars in the galaxy, at least half are of a size and temperature that makes suitable for a biosphere not unlike ours, then you guess at the probability of having a rock-like planet in a temperature belt with the right mass to maintain an atmosphere and then you say given that number, life should have formed multiple places and if life forms we have to assume that at least some of the planets would have evolved multicelled lifeforms.

When you factor in that Mars does have water ice and Europa is likely teeming with some sort of life under the seas I think the chances are good that there is intelligent life outside our solar system.


BTW other than the radio and TV transmissions we have been broadcasting only for the last 80-90 years we are not actively sending out a WE ARE HERE message that I know of. I know we are listening.

If we go HDTV and Digital/Satelite radio, if another life form picks up our TV/radio they are going to think we killed ourselves off because there will be no more analog transmissions.

100 years of broadcasts will not be enough to contact any other star system with life.

I know life is out there I think there is too much distance between us.

I have a harder time with alternate universes.
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Old 02-25-2009, 02:48 PM   #21
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When you factor in that Mars does have water ice and Europa is likely teeming with some sort of life under the seas I think the chances are good that there is intelligent life outside our solar system.


BTW other than the radio and TV transmissions we have been broadcasting only for the last 80-90 years we are not actively sending out a WE ARE HERE message that I know of. I know we are listening.

If we go HDTV and Digital/Satelite radio, if another life form picks up our TV/radio they are going to think we killed ourselves off because there will be no more analog transmissions.

100 years of broadcasts will not be enough to contact any other star system with life.

I know life is out there I think there is too much distance between us.

I have a harder time with alternate universes.

We need to be more careful with what we send out into space. Not every life form is going to be ET.

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Old 02-25-2009, 02:53 PM   #22
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We need to be more careful with what we send out into space. Not every life form is going to be ET.

I agree. As a casual sci-fi fan I agree. I just don't see anything being able to travel the distances in the galaxy let alone the universe.

I read Cormac McCarthy's The Road last year and that senario scares me more than aliens. Feeding and protecting ones family after a holocaust or society meltdown is more probable.
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Old 02-25-2009, 02:56 PM   #23
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We need to be more careful with what we send out into space. Not every life form is going to be ET.

Also, people should really make sure to check their closets more thoroughly for the Boogie Man before going to bed, and keep their chimneys clean for Santa Clause.
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Old 02-25-2009, 03:00 PM   #24
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Also, people should really make sure to check their closets more thoroughly for the Boogie Man before going to bed, and keep their chimneys clean for Santa Clause.

Clearly you are not aware of the under the bed boogie man.


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Old 02-25-2009, 03:04 PM   #25
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The only way I think its possible that intelligent life exists in our galaxy is if there is no scientific way possible to travel faster than or skirt around the light speed barrier. In which case, humanity is doomed, there is no escape. There will come a time when our planet does not exist and without a method of travelling through the galaxy at extra-luminous means, we will die along with it.

If it IS possible, we would have most certainly encountered some sign of of their existence since it would not take long for a species to populate the whole of the galaxy if that technology were available to them, including our own planet.

Consider if you gave a species 10 years to colonize each world, and say 1 in 1000 stars had a habitable planet (which seems rather high to me), it would only take 100 million years or so for the entire galaxy to be colonized. Given that our own galaxy was formed when the first galaxies formed (or near to it), say 12 billion years ago, thats a mear 1/120th of the time the galaxy has existed. You can take extinction out of the equation since that species populations litterally hundreds of thousands of worlds.

So, either its not possible for any civilization to warp space or travel faster than light, or we are alone...at least in this galaxy. JMO.
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