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Old 01-25-2009, 12:17 PM   #1
PaintballCLE
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Default Anyone interested in "SQUARES" for the super bowl?

We have about 35 left.........$2.00 ea........payout 1st=$50, 2nd = $50, 3rd = $50 and final = $50


if your interested, PM me and we can do it through paypal or whatever..........and of course i can post it on here prior to the game so you know its legit.


Its weird, we had no problem filling up the $100/square, $25/square, and $5/square..............but the $2 its impossible lol
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Old 01-25-2009, 12:19 PM   #2
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How to Play

Super Bowl squares is a simple football pool that anyone, regardless of their football knowledge, can play and win.
  1. Random numbers (0-9) are assigned to each axis of a 10x10 grid.
  2. These numbers are hidden until the start of the Super Bowl.
  3. Players pick squares randomly from the grid.
  4. Winners are based on the points scored during the game (last digits only).
  5. Example: if the score is NYG-3, NE-0 the square at the intersection of 3 and 0 wins.
  6. Four prizes are awarded: one at the end of each quarter.
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Old 01-25-2009, 01:57 PM   #3
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I can see it now.... CBF1 you got 9 and 9
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Old 01-25-2009, 06:54 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBF1 View Post
I can see it now.... CBF1 you got 9 and 9
lol its completely random............they way we do it is i fill up the board, THEN we have a 3rd party who didn't play randomly pick the numbers using playing cards (A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ,8 9, 10)
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Old 01-25-2009, 07:59 PM   #5
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FYI 30 left now
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Old 01-27-2009, 06:39 PM   #6
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17 left.........good luck to the maners who have played so far!
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Old 01-27-2009, 07:05 PM   #7
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Super Bowl Squares

Posted by Doug on Monday, January 26, 2009

This is a re-run of a post I ran a year ago:

Three Super Bowls ago, I wrote this post over at Sabernomics. In it, I looked at your probability of winning a squares pool with any given square. For example, I found that in a one-unit-per-square pool, either of the ‘0/7′ squares would have an expected value of about 3.8 units. Compare that with, say, a ‘5/6′ square, which has an expected value of 0.22, or the lowly `2/2′ square and its expected value of .04. Because it was all the data I had at the time, I only considered the last digits of the final scores of games, but someone correctly pointed out in the comments that most pools also give prizes for (the last digits of) the cumulative scores at the end of each quarter.

Well, now I have score-by-quarter data for the entirety of the NFL’s 2-point-conversion era (1994–present), so it’s time for an update.


I’m sure there are lots of ways to do this, but a bit of googling indicates that a standard payout structure is something like 10% of the pot after each of the first three quarters, and 70% for the final. This doesn’t alter things too drastically, but it does have a couple of effects.

The ‘0/7′ squares enjoy an even larger advantage over an average square. The ‘0/7′ squares have an expected value of about 4.9 under this scheme.
The ‘0/0′ square starts climbing the charts.
More than 20% of all games are in a ‘0/0′ situation (remember, that includes 10-0 and 10-10 as well as 0-0) after one quarter. At halftime, about 7.5% of all games are a ‘0/0.’ So the more weight you put on the intermediate stages, the better the ‘0/0′ square looks. Here is a chart that shows the expected value of a given square after each quarter, along with a final column that shows the expected value under a 10/10/10/70 system:

+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+
| | | q1ev | q2ev | q3ev | q4ev | ev |
+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+
| 7 | 0 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 4.9 |
| 0 | 0 | 20.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 4.5 |
| 3 | 0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| 7 | 7 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
| 7 | 4 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| 7 | 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| 4 | 0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 6 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 4 | 4 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 6 | 3 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 7 | 6 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 9 | 7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 9 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 9 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 9 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 7 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 9 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 8 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 9 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 9 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 9 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+
Here’s how to read that. Take the top line for example. If you have one of the two ‘0/7′ squares, then your expected value is 11.8% of the first-quarter pot, 5.6% of the second-quarter pot, and so on. With the 10/10/10/70 system, your overall expected value would be about 4.9.

As I was poking around the web looking for info on standard payout schemes for these kinds of pools, I came across this page. One of the commenters there suggests using not the final digit of each team’s score, but the final digit of the sum of each team’s score. So a 17 would be an 8, a 22 would be a 4, and a 38 would be a 1.

I was too lazy to check this one out quarter-by-quarter, but just looking at final scores, this scheme produces a much flatter expected value curve.

+------+------+------+
| | | ev |
+------+------+------+
| 7 | 4 | 2.0 |
| 8 | 2 | 1.6 |
| 4 | 1 | 1.5 |
| 6 | 3 | 1.5 |
| 8 | 6 | 1.4 |
| 9 | 6 | 1.4 |
| 6 | 4 | 1.4 |
| 8 | 5 | 1.4 |
| 7 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 6 | 5 | 1.3 |
| 8 | 7 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 3 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0 | 1.2 |
| 5 | 3 | 1.2 |
| 6 | 1 | 1.2 |
| 7 | 6 | 1.1 |
| 8 | 3 | 1.1 |
| 8 | 1 | 1.1 |
| 8 | 4 | 1.1 |
| 9 | 3 | 1.1 |
| 5 | 4 | 1.1 |
| 5 | 2 | 1.1 |
| 7 | 3 | 1.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 0.9 |
| 9 | 8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1 | 0.9 |
| 7 | 7 | 0.9 |
| 7 | 5 | 0.9 |
| 9 | 7 | 0.9 |
| 9 | 4 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 7 | 1 | 0.8 |
| 9 | 1 | 0.8 |
| 8 | 0 | 0.8 |
| 5 | 0 | 0.8 |
| 6 | 0 | 0.8 |
| 6 | 6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 0 | 0.7 |
| 9 | 5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3 | 0.7 |
| 7 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 9 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 9 | 0 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 1 | 0.6 |
| 6 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 0 | 0.5 |
| 8 | 8 | 0.5 |
| 0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| 9 | 9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2 | 0.0 |
+------+------+------+
Look where ‘0/0′ is now!

I don’t think fairer is the right word, but this seems to me to be a clearly more interesting pool. It is less determined by the random assignment of squares and more determined by the random actions that happen as the game unfolds. And that’s how it ought to be.

For the extra geeky, one way to improve this (in my opinion) would be to, at the end of the game, flip a coin to determine whether the criterion to be used is “last digit” or “last digit of sum of digits.” In other words, say the game ends up at 23-14. If the coin comes up heads, it’s a ‘3/4′. If it comes up tails, it’s a ‘5/5′. The point of the pool is to keep people interested. With the coin flip rule in place, I’d guess that, even into the fourth quarter, just about anyone (except the poor suckers with ‘2/2′ and ‘9/9′; they’re beyond help) could invent a reasonable scenario whereby he or she collects the prize.

This entry was posted on Monday, January 26th, 2009 at 4:41 AM and filed under General. Follow comments here with the RSS 2.0 feed. Skip to the end and leave a response. Trackbacks are closed.
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Old 01-27-2009, 07:31 PM   #8
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damn I am a stats major and even that makes my head hurt....
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Old 01-27-2009, 08:50 PM   #9
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7 left....
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Old 01-27-2009, 11:09 PM   #10
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Kevin, put me down for 3 squares and Ill paypal you. Do you need $6 or $6.13 to cover paypal charges? Put me down for those 3 and let me know by pm your paypal account. You must have rich friends to fill up the $25 to $100 squares. I can afford just 3 of $2.
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Old 01-28-2009, 06:28 PM   #11
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BCJ, got the $$ thanks
Board is filled, numbers drawn, and i have it here ready to post

Well let me rephrase that.........as soon as I can figure out how to post an upside down PDF file the right way, and in non pdf format ill have it up here......hopefully in 10-20 min
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Old 01-28-2009, 06:38 PM   #12
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Old 01-28-2009, 06:41 PM   #13
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just in case you can't read the writing (the scan came out kinda bad) the numbers going across are (6304271958) and the ones going down are (0642875139)

Remember at the end of each quarter, take the LAST digit of the score to determine who wins.

IE If the score was pit 10, Ari 3 at the end of the 3rd quarter, our very own BCJ would win.
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Old 01-28-2009, 06:50 PM   #14
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I like the 3 and 0. 4 and 8 could be 14 to 28 so there is possibilites. I think squares became better when the 2 point conversion was put into the NFL games.
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Old 02-01-2009, 04:27 PM   #15
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pit 3, ari 0 winner of first quarter is 209 k.m.
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Old 02-01-2009, 04:56 PM   #16
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17-7 after 2.....tmac wins 2nd quarter
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Old 02-01-2009, 07:38 PM   #17
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Alright I'm in... whats available?
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Old 02-01-2009, 07:55 PM   #18
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3rd quarter..........miles P (hawaii Guy)
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Old 02-01-2009, 07:56 PM   #19
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Final Angie W
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Old 02-01-2009, 07:57 PM   #20
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thanks to all that played...hope everyone had fun.......hopefully next year we can have one exclusivly with mane members
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