Forde: Post-Elway, Shanahan's busts outnumbered booms

[bloodsunday]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/colum...9&sportCat=nfl

Mike Shanahan is easily the best coach in Denver Broncos history. But that doesn't mean he should be coach for life.

It was time for a new coach in Denver. Give credit to owner Pat Bowlen for making that difficult decision and firing the man most Broncos fans never thought he'd fire -- the man who helped deliver the only two Super Bowl victories in franchise history.

Turns out everyone overestimated Shanahan's job security -- including, perhaps, Shanahan himself. After 14 years, his comfort level and strategic intransigence could be some of the reasons the Broncos have become the embodiment of mediocrity with their 24-24 record the past three seasons.

Mike Shanahan and John Elway were on top of the world in the late '90s, winning two Super Bowls.

As a lifelong Bronco fan who watches every game and remembers the days before Denver even had a winning season, much less a world title, I'm sorry to see it end like this. Sorry and a bit stunned. But by no means would I say Bowlen's decision is unjustified.

He fired Wade Phillips once, and Dan Reeves, too. Now Shanahan joins an Orange Crush pink-slip list he surely never dreamed he'd be on -- but deserves to be on.

You end a third straight blah season outside the playoffs, being outscored by 78 points -- and flatly lucky to be even 8-8. You gag away your good fortune and give up a division title with three straight losses. You lose at home to a team that has given up on the season (Buffalo), then get undressed in a do-or-die game against your biggest rival (San Diego) with a divisional title on the line.

Guess what? Those are fireable offenses. Even for a guy with Shanny's finger bling.

Truth is, the Shanahan Method was fraying and the franchise decaying at a time when it should be booming in its relatively new stadium. Backed by arguably the best owner and most loyal fan base in the NFL, the coach couldn't sustain the glory of the 1990s into the new millennium.

Since John Elway rode off into the Rocky Mountain sunset after a second consecutive Super Bowl title in early 1999, Denver has been utterly ordinary. It has won a single playoff game in the decade without No. 7 at quarterback.

The post-Elway Broncos have been a blur of fired defensive coordinators, failed free-agent acquisitions, boom-or-bust drafts, spotty special teams, late-season swoons and -- on those occasions when they did make the playoffs -- postseason pratfalls. Shanahan has continually churned the roster without changing the bottom line. The magic is long gone, and it will be up to someone else to recapture it.

Post-Elway, Shanahan seemed to believe he could plug any quarterback into his creative, aggressive offense and it would work at a championship level. He hand-picked Brian Griese for the role, and it didn't work. He hand-picked Jake Plummer for the role, and it didn't work. The current hand-picked quarterback is Jay Cutler -- and so far it hasn't worked.

Mike Shanahan has seen his share of struggles since the glory days of the Broncos.

Cutler is a prodigious talent who makes you want to kiss him and strangle him in alternating doses. He might turn out to be a great one, but until he curbs his proclivity for crippling turnovers, he's just a tease -- he threw five interceptions this season inside opponents' 10-yard line. Shanahan seemed seduced by Cutler's arm and bravado to the point that he indulged the very interceptions and fumbles that did as much to scuttle this season as Denver's plague of injuries.

But the biggest problem with the 2008 Broncos was a horrendous defense that was largely of Shanahan's making. (The entire roster is of Shanahan's making, in fact, given the amount of control Bowlen entrusted him with.) He has changed coordinators and parts like socks with steadily decreasing results.

The coach's annual efforts to revamp his defensive line on the fly bottomed out in '08. Denver was terrible up front, both against the run and in rushing the passer. This is what happens when you troll the free-agent market for linemen who underachieved elsewhere or, in alternating years, you draft non-impact linemen.

The free-agent failures of recent years are too numerous to list -- though Dewayne Robertson deserves special commendation for lack of impact this year, a development that could not have shocked his previous employer, the New York Jets. And the 2007 draft splurge on defensive linemen has been a bust -- three of Denver's first four picks in that draft were spent on Jarvis Moss, Tim Crowder and Marcus Thomas, none of whom will play in Hawaii in this lifetime.

(To be fair, Shanahan and Denver's personnel people did hit home runs in the '08 draft with left tackle Ryan Clady, wide receiver Eddie Royal and running back Peyton Hillis. But those are all offensive players.)

Combine the problems up front with abominable safety play, and Denver's defense was a disaster up the middle. The franchise that once was home to rock-solid safeties such as Steve Atwater, Dennis Smith and Billy Thompson saw its back-line players continually miss tackles, blow coverages and surrender big plays.

So at a time in which AFC West rivals Kansas City and Oakland have faded from competitive view, Denver has failed to take advantage. What should be a two-team divisional race between the Broncos and the Chargers has instead become the San Diego Show, except when Ed Hochuli intervenes on Denver's behalf.

If he wants another job, Shanahan surely will get one. There's a good chance he would succeed in it -- getting fired might be the jolt he needs to modernize some of his philosophies and change some of his ways.

And one day they justifiably will enshrine Shanahan in Denver's Ring of Honor, putting his name on the stadium facade alongside the players he coached to Super Bowl glory. But their days in uniform are done, and their coach was overdue to exit the Mile High sideline. Nobody's run lasts forever.

[bloodsunday]

I love Forde's writing. I think he summarized this situation as well as it could be done.

And in the interest of full disclosure I have been AGAINST firing Shanahan until the news struck yesterday. After beeing shocked for the first few hours, I found a couple of items that cannot be ignored:

1) This had to be the toughest decision Pat Bowlen has made as Owner. No doubt.

These next few won't surprise the "doubters" of Shanahan

2) This team was not built to win in the playoffs: their soft mentally and physically, they don't play good defense, they are a terrible redzone team because their "system" is not built to run in the redzone

3) The amount of late season failure we have experienced lately would get just about an coach fired. (Marty was 14 - 2 and got fired for losing in the 1st round).

4) For some reason the players don't seem to respond to Shanahan. Maybe "his message is stale". Maybe he prefers a roster of veterans. Maybe he's too soft on them. Maybe he's acquiring the wrong guys.

5) As good as Shanahan was a building offenses, he was bad at building defenses. The amount of failed draft picks and FA on defense in particular is astounding.

[sirhcyennek81]

Originally Posted by bloodsunday

I love Forde's writing. I think he summarized this situation as well as it could be done.

And in the interest of full disclosure I have been AGAINST firing Shanahan until the news struck yesterday. After beeing shocked for the first few hours, I found a couple of items that cannot be ignored:

1) This had to be the toughest decision Pat Bowlen has made as Owner. No doubt.

These next few won't surprise the "doubters" of Shanahan

2) This team was not built to win in the playoffs: their soft mentally and physically, they don't play good defense, they are a terrible redzone team because their "system" is not built to run in the redzone
3) The amount of late season failure we have experienced lately would get just about an coach fired. (Marty was 14 - 2 and got fired for losing in the 1st round).

4) For some reason the players don't seem to respond to Shanahan. Maybe "his message is stale". Maybe he prefers a roster of veterans. Maybe he's too soft on them. Maybe he's acquiring the wrong guys.

5) As good as Shanahan was a building offenses, he was bad at building defenses. The amount of failed draft picks and FA on defense in particular is astounding.

Hillis had 5 TD's in 4 games. He doesnt have 4.35 speed, meaning he got most if his TD's inside the 20. Who was going to get it in when denver was inside the 20? Tatum Bell? The system was designed to run the ball, cant do that when 7 running backs are hanging out in the training room.

Rest of your assessment I agree with.

[bloodsunday]

Originally Posted by sirhcyennek81

Hillis had 5 TD's in 4 games. He doesnt have 4.35 speed, meaning he got most if his TD's inside the 20. Who was going to get it in when denver was inside the 20? Tatum Bell? The system was designed to run the ball, cant do that when 7 running backs are hanging out in the training room

Yes its true we lost 7 backs this year. Yes there is reason to hope for more of a power run game with Hillis. But you have to consider the weight of the evidence. Over the past 5 years or so, Denver has been a poor redzone team and it stemmed from (at least in part) the run game.

This move was more about the trend over the last 5 years then this year, I think.

[sirhcyennek81]

Originally Posted by bloodsunday

Yes its true we lost 7 backs this year. Yes there is reason to hope for more of a power run game with Hillis. But you have to consider the weight of the evidence. Over the past 5 years or so, Denver has been a poor redzone team and it stemmed from (at least in part) the run game.

This move was more about the trend over the last 5 years then this year, I think.

2003: 543 attempts, 2,629 yards, 20 TD's (2nd ranked rush attack) (Playoffs)
2004: 534 Att, 2,333 yards, 13 td's (4th ranked) (Playoffs)
2005: 542 Att, 2,539 yards, 25 td's (2nd ranked, AFCC appearance)

2006: 488 Att, 2,152 yards, 12 td's (8th ranked)
2007: 429 Att, 1957 yards, 10 td's (9th ranked)
2008: 387 Att, 1862 yards, 15 tds (12th ranked)

I dont know about the last 5, but the last 3 are beyond ridiculous.

[Circle Orange]

Amazingly, on NFL Network Schefter said it was basically a five minute meeting and then Shanahan left. He also said this had been brewing for awhile, so you have to wonder if something else will come out later.

I wouldn't be too comfortable thinking the division will stay 'soft' for long. Look at the AFC East, things can change in a hurry. And the Raiders put together some wins late. You can never predict how long teams will stay down, or how quickly they can crash.

Crash = Jacksonville
Rose = Atlanta, Dolphins

[jsco70]

This article is 100% accurate. Shanahan's "guarantee" of making the playoffs certainly didn't help.

I was willing to give him another year, per my vote in yesterday's poll, but I'm not surprised one bit by this firing. In fact, I kept checking the net and NFL Network on Monday thinking this would happen...either get fired or resign.

I thank and salute Shanahan for all he has done. He's a great coach and will undoubtedly go to another team and do well. However, at this time, I agree with Pat Bowlen's decision to move in another direction. After all, it is his team and his money. At least it won't be a boring offseason.

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by bloodsunday

...I found a couple of items that cannot be ignored:

...

These next few won't surprise the "doubters" of Shanahan

2) This team was not built to win in the playoffs: their soft mentally and physically, they don't play good defense, they are a terrible redzone team because their "system" is not built to run in the redzone

3) The amount of late season failure we have experienced lately would get just about an coach fired. (Marty was 14 - 2 and got fired for losing in the 1st round).

4) For some reason the players don't seem to respond to Shanahan. Maybe "his message is stale". Maybe he prefers a roster of veterans. Maybe he's too soft on them. Maybe he's acquiring the wrong guys.

5) As good as Shanahan was a building offenses, he was bad at building defenses. The amount of failed draft picks and FA on defense in particular is astounding.

Good post. I think those who are so bothered by this moved need to read and re-read these four things. #2 is particularly noteworthy and accurate. The reality is this team hasn't been a championship caliber team for over 10 years, and clearly Shanahan doesn't realize that his "system" is no longer one that will work in today's NFL.

[sirhcyennek81]

Originally Posted by TonyR

Good post. I think those who are so bothered by this moved need to read and re-read these four things. #2 is particularly noteworthy and accurate. The reality is this team hasn't been a championship caliber team for over 10 years, and clearly Shanahan doesn't realize that his "system" is no longer one that will work in today's NFL.

You mean running the football? That "system" doesnt work? Running the ball to win hasnt changed. Not having anyone of note carrying the football and a weak offensive line didnt help what is a good philosophy.

[no-pseudo-fan]

Hillis is going to get his shot next year. Our redzone offense was much better with him running the ball.

I am going to miss Mike, but I will not shed any tears. The defense we played this year was a disgrace.