A look at 4-3 defenses by avr draft position for starters

[lex]

OK, admittedly, its not free of flaw because 1st round picks dont always play like it. But, on the other hand, you also have guys who play above their draft position. So, without any data to suggest otherwise, Im considering that a wash leaving the guys where their draft round is a reflection of their talent.

As you can see, Im looking at 4-3 teams.

Draft position by position
    Phil    TB    Denver Chicago Minnesota Indy    Tenn    NYG
DE    8    1    1    8    4    7    1    3
DE    5    1    4    4    4    1    2    1
DT    1    1    1    1    8    7    8    4
DT    1    6    4    2    1    8    1    2
OLB    8    6    2    8    1    4    4    7
OLB    3    1    1    3    3    3    1    8
MLB    3    2    3    1    1    8    4    8
CB    4    1    1    2    1    2    8    1
CB    2    3    2    5    2    2    7    2
S    8    2    6    5    2    2    3    8
S    2    4    7    2    2    6    1    7
    45    28    32    41    29    50    40    51
Avg Rd    4.09    2.55    2.91    3.73    2.64    4.55    3.64    4.64

If you look at it and correlate draft position to "talent", Denver isnt so bad. However, you have Philadelphia, which has a DC like Jimmy Johnson that has 3 undrafted free agents that it uses. NYG also has 3 undrafted free agents that are starting. In looking at this, you can see the value of good defensive coaches/coordinators.

Discuss.

[ludo21]

that chart makes no sense to me.

[lex]

Originally Posted by ludo21

that chart makes no sense to me.

One of Philadelphias DEs was undrafted (8) and the other one was drafted in the 5th round. Does that help?

[ludo21]

Originally Posted by lex

One of Philadelphias DEs was undrafted (8) and the other one was drafted in the 5th round. Does that help?

ya, I get it now.

So basically our coaches cant coach... nothing new there unfortunately ..

[TonyR]

Draft position doesn't necessarily mean anything. This chart doesn't really say anything other than the average draft position of the team's starters. There is no way to draw any conclusion about coaching from this.

[goldengopher1976]

Originally Posted by TonyR

Draft position doesn't necessarily mean anything. This chart doesn't really say anything other than the average draft position of the team's starters. There is no way to draw any conclusion about coaching from this.

Now that's a bit of an overstatement...there are some conclusions to be drawn from it, one of which is the possible conclusion that coaching is an issue. Does the chart *prove* anything or answer all our questions? Of course not, but to say it allows for no conclusions is a reach.

[lex]

Originally Posted by goldengopher1976

Now that's a bit of an overstatement...there are some conclusions to be drawn from it, one of which is the possible conclusion that coaching is an issue. Does the chart *prove* anything or answer all our questions? Of course not, but to say it allows for no conclusions is a reach.

Exactly. Good coaches can get more out of players than bad coaches. If theres anyone who should know that, it should be Denver Broncos fans. I think the only offensive player on the 98 team that was drafted before the 5th round was Elway and passing wasnt even the strength of the team. I dont see how people fail to recognize this on the other side of the ball. Just look at Harrison in Pittsburgh. He was cut by no Baltimore and Pittsburgh has turned him into a defensive force. But thats a credit to Dick LeBeau. Jimmy Johnson has Trent Cole. Does anyone here really believe that Cole would be as effective in Denver, especially with the 10 yard cushions?

As I acknowledged from the outset, its not exactly without flaw, but its also telling. Again, yeah, some players are busts and some play above where they were drafted.

[HEAV]

Fixing the defense isn't just a draft issue. Free agent dollars need invested also...should have been done a few years ago. But front office always went the cheap route... Cleveland Bronwcos.

You can find instant impact at linebacker in round one. But D-Line takes development time to blossom.

[SoDak Bronco]

nice thread..interesting point about the coaching..I haven't really thought about it from that perspective. Too many yes men in the Def coaching staff?

[HEAV]

Originally Posted by SoDak Bronco

nice thread..interesting point about the coaching..I haven't really thought about it from that perspective. Too many yes men in the Def coaching staff?

Too many yes people in Dove Valley.

[Drek]

The chart isn't without flaws, like the Giants "undrafted MLB" is Antonio Pierce who actually started out with the Redskins.

Doesn't totally invalidate it though. After seeing what Spagnuolo gets out of his DEs even when they lost both starters from last year its hard not to think he'd be able to do something interesting given our DE corps.

I don't think the problem is with the talent evaluation either. In recent years we nearly swung a trade for Justin Tuck, all of us said a collective "who?" and the next season he was a gameday hero on multiple occasions for a championship team. Now he's capping of a 12 sack season. We also had targetted Jon Beason the year we drafted Jarvis Moss, and were looking to get back into the first to select him. He's now a pro-bowl MLB.

So unless we somehow fall into some crazy twilight zone where the guys our talent evaluators miss on are the ones we draft and they ones they're correct on are the ones we can't select every single time it seems as though some form of pattern is emerging.

Coaching? Sure. Scheme? Probably just as much. Another big problem though is that our FA acquisitions for the defense have too often been rooted in name recognition and not in productivity.

An example: In the 2004-2005 offseason we brought in a handful of defensive line overhauls. Pretty much all of them were high draft selections from the Cleveland Browns, except for John Engelberger. A DE we didn't pursue who was available cheaply that year though? Kyle Vanden Bosch. Now a very productive end for a great Titans defense. We chased the guys who had the name recognition and the stat sheet numbers in FA and missed the guy who was actually starting to develop into a game changing starter.

Its tough to nail down a legitimate way to fix the problems we're having on defense. Personally I'm at the point where I'm starting to half believe that we're cursed defensively until we go back to the defense this team was always known for, the 3-4. But if we could just get a very good 4-3 coach from out of the Giants or Tampa Bay staffs I'd at least feel some hope.

Basically, I'm all for a change if that sees someone like Mike Waufle, Rod Marinelli, etc. coming in to take over the defense.

[lex]

Originally Posted by Drek

The chart isn't without flaws, like the Giants "undrafted MLB" is Antonio Pierce who actually started out with the Redskins.

Doesn't totally invalidate it though. After seeing what Spagnuolo gets out of his DEs even when they lost both starters from last year its hard not to think he'd be able to do something interesting given our DE corps.

I don't think the problem is with the talent evaluation either. In recent years we nearly swung a trade for Justin Tuck, all of us said a collective "who?" and the next season he was a gameday hero on multiple occasions for a championship team. Now he's capping of a 12 sack season. We also had targetted Jon Beason the year we drafted Jarvis Moss, and were looking to get back into the first to select him. He's now a pro-bowl MLB.

So unless we somehow fall into some crazy twilight zone where the guys our talent evaluators miss on are the ones we draft and they ones they're correct on are the ones we can't select every single time it seems as though some form of pattern is emerging.

Coaching? Sure. Scheme? Probably just as much. Another big problem though is that our FA acquisitions for the defense have too often been rooted in name recognition and not in productivity.

An example: In the 2004-2005 offseason we brought in a handful of defensive line overhauls. Pretty much all of them were high draft selections from the Cleveland Browns, except for John Engelberger. A DE we didn't pursue who was available cheaply that year though? Kyle Vanden Bosch. Now a very productive end for a great Titans defense. We chased the guys who had the name recognition and the stat sheet numbers in FA and missed the guy who was actually starting to develop into a game changing starter.

Its tough to nail down a legitimate way to fix the problems we're having on defense. Personally I'm at the point where I'm starting to half believe that we're cursed defensively until we go back to the defense this team was always known for, the 3-4. But if we could just get a very good 4-3 coach from out of the Giants or Tampa Bay staffs I'd at least feel some hope.

Basically, I'm all for a change if that sees someone like Mike Waufle, Rod Marinelli, etc. coming in to take over the defense.

One wonders if Vanden Bosch would be as productive in Denver though. Tennessee is a defensive focused team. Thats Fishers forte.

[baja]

Originally Posted by HEAV

Too many yes people in Dove Valley.

Maybe so but why not save this talk for after the season

[baja]

I'm thinking it's the biggest game of the season with the division on the line and we are busy firing coaches

[~Crash~]

Oh so your saying Slowik should get another year

[baja]

Originally Posted by 56crash

Oh so your saying Slowik should get another year

If you are talking to me I tell ya after the game tomorrow.

[Broncos_OTM]

Originally Posted by baja

I'm thinking it's the biggest game of the season with the division on the line and we are busy firing coaches

posts like this have to be the stupidest things i have ever read. we dont play the game we watch the game. in the end we dont do anything but cheer. so who are you to tell anyone what we can or cant discuss? .. o i get it you are a cheerleader... sorry raw raw ree kick em in the knee

[baja]

Originally Posted by Broncos_OTM

posts like this have to be the stupidest things i have ever read. we dont play the game we watch the game. in the end we dont do anything but cheer. so who are you to tell anyone what we can or cant discuss? .. o i get it you are a cheerleader... sorry raw raw ree kick em in the knee

The off season is January, February March, April, May, June, July, August isn't that enough time to fix the team?

Why not enjoy this time of year you wait so long for.

[Inkana7]

I'm inclined to agree. I watch other teams and marvel that their defenses actually DO things. Blitz all kinds of ways. Change up coverages. Run a ****ing stunt. Different personnel packages.

We need someone new.

[Drek]

Originally Posted by lex

One wonders if Vanden Bosch would be as productive in Denver though. Tennessee is a defensive focused team. Thats Fishers forte.

Thats just it. We have two problems with our defense, not just one.

First, while the scouting department seems to identify good draft talent well they don't seem to do a great job with reclamation projects which happens to be a personal favorite way to fill roster space of Shanahan's (defensively).

Second, our coaches aren't coaching up the talent that one would assume we have, based on our known desire for guys who have gone elsewhere and succeeded.

While its real easy to say we need to change D coordinators again we really aren't going to solve anything until the FO puts some legitimate resources into having a good defense. Look at our current defense heading into this season. McCree, Manual, Webster, Boss Bailey, and Robertson were all classic reclamation projects. You could legitimately lump Marcus Thomas and Dre Bly in there as well probably.

We bring in a host of new "get right" type of guys every few years and one or two pans out while we spend time shuffling guys through three or four other starting positions. That is never going to let our unit gel as a whole and it is never going to let this defense be anything better than mediocre. In our down years, like this one, we can't even manage that.

Shanahan needs to hire a defensive coordinator he respects but at this point I'd prefer it if they didn't much like each other because he needs someone to give him a no punches pulled breakdown of how he's failed to provide real talent to his defense. Otherwise we're waiting on either the Goodmans giving us a defensively focused miracle draft or for Bowlen to force change himself.