Election 2008: The Difficulty Stealing It This Time

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

New 2008 Democratic Primary Voters Are
The Key to Election Protection

Michael Collins

“Scoop” Independent News

(Wash. DC) There’s one major obstacle blocking a theft of the 2008 presidential election. It’s highly significant and challenges even the most devious minds. That obstacle is the “net new” Democratic primary voters” in 2008.

“Net new” Democratic primary voters represent the difference between primary turnout in 2004 and 2008. More on that in a moment.

If you think that 2000 and 2004 were free and fair elections and that the idea of election fraud is specious, that’s fine. You might want to review some of the following.

Al Gore won the 2000 election by over 500,000 votes. He did not become the president and was denied a recount by the court that made Bush the president. Stolen election. Case closed.

2004 was not a “red versus blue” election and the winner is still in the U.S. Senate. The red segment of the total vote (the rural U.S.) was down from 23% of the vote in 2000 to 16% in 2004, with two million less Bush votes, in actual terms, in 2004. Bush “won” 2004 through a fictitious increase in “big city” voting (”big cities” are defined in the exit polls as those with greater than 500,000 population).

Bush lost rural (”red”) votes, his base, yet won the election. At the same time, we’re asked to believe that there was a 66% increase in “big city” turnout in 2004, with Bush doubling his vote total there compared to 2000. This is absurd (the real figure is closer to a 13% to 15% turnout increase for “big cities” according to actual results). But that 66% “big city” turnout increase is what the exit pollsters, sponsored by the major media consortium, had to do to make Bush’s reported vote count consistent with the final exit poll reported the day after the election. (See Election 2004: The Urban Legend and Notes from the Underground)

The same people who stole those two elections just took $840 billion of your money and are giving it to their Wall Street donors. They’re the same people who started a war with Iraq based on documented lies and who continued it for five years, with a combined death toll of over one million Iraqi civilians and thousands of U.S. soldiers. They are the people who won’t correct the lie and insist on more of the same. These people resolutely ignore the looming climate changes to the planet that forecast death to tens of millions and the likelihood of multiple scenes like those after Hurricane Katrina.

Here’s the problem for the election thieves. Their strategies all rely on keeping people from registering, keeping those registered away from the polls, and the magic of electronic voting and tabulation. It won’t work this time. But first, here’s a quick look at the strategies in place.

The most effective and enduring is the disenfranchisement of ex-felons, citizens who have served their time and are no longer charged with anything. Florida, Texas and Virginia account for nearly 1.5 million citizens, largely poor and black who were denied the right to vote. They paid their debt to society but they can’t participate as citizens because their vote is stolen by the remnants of a racist inspired post reconstruction movement in both the former Confederate states and cooperating state legislatures across the country.

Voter suppression also includes tactics like false notices announcing changes of election dates; police cruisers at intersections near voting places; threats that voter will be challenged; poorly trained poll workers who send registered voters away; special identification requirements proven to reduce the vote (e.g., photo identification); and much, much more.

The newest rage is “cleansing” centralized registration database. The Florida pre 2000 voter registration purge of tens of thousands of minority voters cost Al Gore the election and inspired federal policies supporting registration cleansing around the country.

Then there are the seemingly endless examples of electronic voting machines improperly recording and counting votes plus security problems. There are no real methods of checking electronic voting. Even if you could and proved fraud, state recount laws are very difficult to invoke and highly restrictive. In Virginia and Florida, for example, it is illegal to recount the paper forms for optical scan voting machines as part of a recount.

What a total mess and a complete mockery of the democracy that we deserve. But when you add up all of these strategies, based on past performance, they work at the margins - maybe a 3-4% shift in votes to the Republican candidate.

“Net New” Democratic Primary Voters

There will still be election fraud at multiple levels in 2008. It’s a national tradition dating back to the Whig Party chasing off immigrant voters in the early 1800’s. But in terms of outcome, this election can be an accurate reflection of the wishes of a majority of voters even with the typical switched votes and varieties of voter suppression.

The solution to election fraud and the best policy for election protection is voter increases accounted for by those “net new” Democratic primary voters. The voter turnout in the presidential primaries was extraordinary in many states. In some cases, like Virginia, the total voters in 2008 more than doubled the total from 2004.

The surge of voter turnout in the primaries began in the mid Atlantic states and carried on through the southeastern seaboard. In addition, swing states showed the same extraordinary trend, a trend that helped Obama win with “net new” primary voters.

At the same time, turnout in the contested Republican primaries was paltry by comparison. Clearly, Republicans were not motivated.

For example, look at the mid and southeastern Atlantic results, the states that gave Sen. Obama a clean sweep.

Click to enlarge
There were 4.9 million voters in the 2008 Democratic Primary and 2.6 million in 2004. That’s 2.3 million “net new” Democratic primary voters for 2008. + North Carolina had state caucuses in 2004. The 2004 Democratic primary figure is an estimate.
(Source CNN 2004, 2008)
In the mid and southeastern Atlantic states, there were nearly 4.9 million Democrats voting in primaries compared to 2.2 million Republicans. With the exception of Delaware and Maryland, the states above are traditionally Republican states. Democrats dwarfed Republicans in 2008 primary turnout. In addition, Democratic turnout nearly doubled from 2004 to 2008. Democratic primary votes increased from 2.6 million in 2004 to 4.9 million in 2008 (using the estimate for N.C. 2004), an increase of 2.3 million “net new” Democratic primary voters.

Let’s look at the critical swing states. A similar, somewhat less dramatic pattern emerges. The one exception to the pattern is Florida. The Republican state legislature moved the Florida primary back to late January. The Democratic National Committee warned that the election could not be used to select delegates to the national convention.

This substantially suppressed turnout by Democrats. While Florida Democrats doubled their 2004 turnout, they were nearly equaled by Florida Republicans who faced the same restrictions on the early primary.

Click to enlarge
There were 5.8 million voters in the 2008 Democratic Primary and 2.7 million in 2004.
That’s 3.1 million “net new” Democratic primary voters for 2008.
(Source CNN 2004, 2008)
These four critical swing states all went Republican in the last two presidential elections. But they show a pattern similar to the trend begun in the mid and southeastern Atlantic states. These primaries saw 5.8 million Democratic primary voters compared to 3.9 million Republicans.

The Democrats more than doubled their 2004 primary voter total, 2.7 million voters, to 5.8 million in 2008. That’s a 3.1 million increase in Democratic primary voters. These figures are in line with the mid and southeastern Atlantic states.

The critical factor is that these “net new” Democratic primary voters were not turned away from the polls by the traditional election fraud strategies. They’re on record as voting in the most recent election, and they’re highly likely to turnout for the general election, without any real impediments to vote. It’s axiomatic that primary voters do just that.

Newly Registered Voters Increase Substantially But They’re Not Enough

One more factor to consider is voter registration in these states. There were major voter registration drives in the southeastern Atlantic states. The least likely Obama state, South Carolina, has seen 240,000 newly registered voters. That figure could approach 300,000. North Carolina has 600,000 new registered voters with 48% Democrats, 21% Republicans, and 31% Independents. There’s a strong tilt toward black voters and the 18-24 age group. Georgia voter registration drives have been intense as well. A pattern similar to North Carolina is emerging in Georgia with one county, Bibb, reporting a 20% increase in black voter registration compared to 1% for whites. Of Georgia’s 400,000 newly registered, there’s an almost even split between black and white registrants. Adding Maryland and Delaware, these states have about 1.7 million newly registered voters. They also have 3.1 million “net new” 2008 Democratic primary voters.

Virginia is now a key swing state. Northern Virginia and the state’s major cities statewide are solidly Democratic. Overall, Virginia has 300,000 newly registered voters with 42% under 24 years of age. Ohio has over 660,000 newly registered voters, with 19% living in counties that Kerry won (140,000) and 1% in Bush counties (5,000). There are almost 800,000 new voters in Florida and Democrats predominate, trailed by Republicans, and Independents. The youth vote of registered voters has increased from 4% in 2000 to 14% in 2008.

Missouri will have over 200,000 newly registered voters. Combined, these swing states have about 2.0 million newly registered voters and 3.1million “net new” 2008 Democratic primary voters.

These registration trends, particularly in the critical swing states, offer some hope regarding election fraud. Somewhere around 65% of newly registered voters actually turn out to vote. But they’re not enough to solidify a majority victory in the reported vote count for the majority voting.

The Net New Democratic Primary Voters Represent the Ultimate Election Protection

Voter registration in the swing states and throughout the country are up significantly and they favor Sen. Obama’s candidacy. But there were also significant increases in voter participation and new registrations from 2000 to 2004 with an emphasis on the youth and minority voters. This is very good news since it shows an expansion of citizens exercising their fundamental rights. The 2008 shifts in demographics in the newly registered will benefit Obama’s campaign.

However, this is an existing trend, not a new wave of voters who can be assured of voting; voters who will face few if any impediments getting into the voting booth.

It is those extraordinary increases in primary voting that represent the new element in the election process. These voters were not seen in the 2004 primary. They were on the rolls for the 2008 primary and, without question, eligible for the 2008 general election. Who are they? We don’t know for sure but the simple answer is, they’re citizens who were motivated enough to vote in this primary cycle, elections frequently ignored by large numbers of voters.

The swing states had 3.1 million net new primary voters in 2008 and an aggregate 2.0 million increase in newly registered voters. There may be some overlap but the primaries took place at the start of the year in these states and the registration drives for the general election took off after the primaries. So they should be viewed as largely discrete figures.

These net new primary voters create problems for election thieves. If we assume a 20% turnout increase in the four swing states considered, that comes to a total of 23 million voters. The 3.1 million net new primary voters represent 14% of that total. They can all vote. They’re all registered and they all voted in the most recent election. They can’t be turned away easily. They will be unlikely to become confused or intimidated by the traditional voter suppression tricks.
The only fraud strategies available are through electronic voting machines and outright changes in vote totals. Thus, with fewer tools (disenfranchisement and suppression are out for this group); election fraud would need to wipe out 14% of the estimated vote.

That’s to obvious and that’s why the “net new” voters from the Democratic primaries in these four key swing states, the mid and southeastern Atlantic states, and any other state fitting this 2008 primary voting pattern represent the best assurance against election fraud available.

Internet researcher anaxarchos made the point in blunt terms in a communication to the author:

“It is not enough to steal votes. You need a place to stuff them. You can sell cocaine but in the end you have to explain how your Starbucks franchise brings in $80 million per year. There will be widespread fraud and caging and suppression but, as of today, I see no possible place to stuff it. It was hard enough in 2004 and that was ‘close’.”

It’s as though the people are looking at the election thieves and saying, “Go ahead. Make my day.”

[cutthemdown]

Don't worry we will figure out some way to steal the election.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

BradBlog: McCain Hearts ACORN! Was Keynote Speaker at Group's 2006 Rally! 10/15

[Garcia Bronco]

Since the 2000 election wasn't stolen, I find the premise of this article amusing. Even more amusing is the b****ing and moaning from the 2000 election led to electronic voting machines which were unreliable. Anyone who works with technology and new software know that the stuff is buggy to begin with.

[TheReverend]

Who cares?

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Garcia Bronco

Since the 2000 election wasn't stolen, I find the premise of this article amusing. Even more amusing is the b****ing and moaning from the 2000 election led to electronic voting machines which were unreliable. Anyone who works with technology and new software know that the stuff is buggy to begin with.

Main Entry: de·moc·ra·cy
Pronunciation: \di-ˈmä-krə-sē\
Function: noun
Inflected Form(s): plural de·moc·ra·cies
Etymology: Middle French democratie, from Late Latin democratia, from Greek dēmokratia, from dēmos + -kratia -cracy
Date: 1576
1 a: government by the people ; especially : rule of the majority b: a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections
2: a political unit that has a democratic government
3capitalized : the principles and policies of the Democratic party in the United States
4: the common people especially when constituting the source of political authority
5: the absence of hereditary or arbitrary class distinctions or privileges



Note: Gore had 500,000 more votes than Bush.

[Meck77]

Originally Posted by L.A. BRONCOS FAN

The same people who stole those two elections just took $840 billion of your money and are giving it to their Wall Street donors.

Good job Obama.

[ak1971]

this is great:

Republicans steal the election thru voter fraud. Riots in
the streets. Mobs threaten the White House. Bush declares
Martial Law and unleashes the 1st Brigade. Liberal
mutha****ers and other undesirables rounded up and placed in
a FEMA concentration camps around the country. Is your name
on the Terrorist Watch List, Let us know how the
reprogramming and waterboarding facilities are.

Alternative scenario (of course) is Republicans steal the
election thru voter fraud. The Sheeple get upset because
some dip**** got bounced from American Idol. Transition to
McCain Admin is smooth and orderly.

[Garcia Bronco]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Main Entry: de·moc·ra·cy
Pronunciation: \di-ˈmä-krə-sē\
Function: noun
Inflected Form(s): plural de·moc·ra·cies
Etymology: Middle French democratie, from Late Latin democratia, from Greek dēmokratia, from dēmos + -kratia -cracy
Date: 1576
1 a: government by the people ; especially : rule of the majority b: a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections
2: a political unit that has a democratic government
3capitalized : the principles and policies of the Democratic party in the United States
4: the common people especially when constituting the source of political authority
5: the absence of hereditary or arbitrary class distinctions or privileges



Note: Gore had 500,000 more votes than Bush.

Are you refering to popular vote? We have an electorate that actually elects the President. It's not by popular vote. The only way Gore could have won Florida was to have all the disallowed votes counted. Massive amounts of votes that were half punched. The only way to reproduce this error was to stuff several ballots into a punch device and punch them. Since these were mostly for Gore, one could only assume that an agent wanting Gore to win made the false ballots. Quit perpetuating this silly notion that the 2000 election was stolen. The democrats tried to change election laws in the middle of an election, which is why the Supreme Court took the case and put a stop to that nonsense. Keep in mind that the guy I voted for did not win.

[Garcia Bronco]

Oh and for the US Government impaired - We live in a republic not a democracy. Democracy falls, every democracy on Earth has failed. It fails about the time that the public learns they can vote themselves control of the treasury. So the way to getting elected is making promises of said treasury to the public. Which is going on as we speak.

[Bob]

Originally Posted by cutthemdown

Don't worry we will figure out some way to steal the election.

If we can just stop Acorn from stopping Micky Mouse from voting twice we will have officially stole the election again...

Notice in the whacked out article above the big "to do" about getting out the criminal vote -- I guess that is another needed voting block for the Dems to win?

[Bob]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Main Entry: de·moc·ra·cy
Pronunciation: \di-ˈmä-krə-sē\
Function: noun
Inflected Form(s): plural de·moc·ra·cies
Etymology: Middle French democratie, from Late Latin democratia, from Greek dēmokratia, from dēmos + -kratia -cracy
Date: 1576
1 a: government by the people ; especially : rule of the majority b: a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections
2: a political unit that has a democratic government
3capitalized : the principles and policies of the Democratic party in the United States
4: the common people especially when constituting the source of political authority
5: the absence of hereditary or arbitrary class distinctions or privileges



Note: Gore had 500,000 more votes than Bush.

Not the first time in American history -- you know we live in a Republic dont you? You may not like it, but that's how it is setup. Dont worry so much, "all the polls" show that McCain simply cant win...

[Arkie]

A democracy is The Majority Unlimited lacking any legal safeguard of the rights of The Individual and The Minority.

A republic is The Majority Limited under a written Constitution safeguarding the rights of The Individual and The Minority.

The USA is supposedly a republic.

[Rohirrim]

IMO, a republic should also adhere to many of the rules of democracy. The idea that we have a system that occasionally allows the candidate who has earned fewer votes to win office is a major flaw in our scheme.

[Spider]

Does anyone else think McCain is knocking boots with Palin ?

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Spider

Does anyone else think McCain is knocking boots with Palin ?

Now there's a visual image I didn't need.

[Garcia Bronco]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

IMO, a republic should also adhere to many of the rules of democracy. The idea that we have a system that occasionally allows the candidate who has earned fewer votes to win office is a major flaw in our scheme.

The electorate is the best way to go. Otherwise population centers would make all the decisions and unfairly run over the less populated areas. Our framers knew what they were doing.

[cutthemdown]

Originally Posted by Bob

If we can just stop Acorn from stopping Micky Mouse from voting twice we will have officially stole the election again...

Notice in the whacked out article above the big "to do" about getting out the criminal vote -- I guess that is another needed voting block for the Dems to win?

Cmon even LABF's criminal friends should get to vote. He's just looking out for all his neighbors.

[Traveler]

Originally Posted by Spider

Does anyone else think McCain is knocking boots with Palin ?

You are one sick puppy!

As much as he keeps staring at her butt, I think he wishes he could.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by Garcia Bronco

Since the 2000 election wasn't stolen....

I guess Fox News didn't report that pesky NAACP vs. Harris/ChoicePoint thing.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by cutthemdown

Cmon even LABF's criminal friends should get to vote. He's just looking out for all his neighbors.

Whereas Cut_one votes for the criminals.

[Garcia Bronco]

Originally Posted by L.A. BRONCOS FAN

I guess Fox News didn't report that pesky NAACP vs. Harris/ChoicePoint thing.

You mean the case with 20 plantiffs? So we'll add 20 votes to Mister Gors total. Oh look. He still didn't win.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by Garcia Bronco

You mean the case with 20 plantiffs? So we'll add 20 votes to Mister Gors total. Oh look. He still didn't win.

Not 20 votes - 57,700 votes.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20040517/palast

But silly me - I forgot that facts don't matter to republicans.

[Bronco Bob]

Originally Posted by Bob

If we can just stop Acorn from stopping Micky Mouse from voting twice we will have officially stole the election again...

So you think Tony Romo is actually going to go vote in Ohio?

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by Bronco Bob

So you think Tony Romo is actually going to go vote in Ohio?

That will be the right's excuse when McBush loses.

They are doing some pre-emptive excuse-making.