30 Days out... Polls

[TheDave]

Well everyone has been saying that we should all wait until a month out before we look at the Polls. Here is a combination of every major Poll out there... Looks like Obama has a 7+ pt lead.

[Rohirrim]

McCain pulling out of Michigan and having to defend Missouri is pretty much a death knell.

[TheDave]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

McCain pulling out of Michigan and having to defend Missouri is pretty much a death knell.

Gotta give Obama's campaign credit. With their money advantage they said they were going to expand the map. Looks to have been a VERY smart strategy.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Electoral vote projection:

Obama 330 McCain 175

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

[TheDave]

Originally Posted by L.A. BRONCOS FAN

Electoral vote projection:

Obama 330 McCain 175

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

Thats the funny part... The national polls are ugly, but when you look at the electoral map it gets REAL UGLY.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by TheDave

Thats the funny part... The national polls are ugly, but when you look at the electoral map it gets REAL UGLY.

Especially when you see Obama leading the comedy duo in all the battleground states.

[Rohirrim]

Obama even has a shot at N. Carolina.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Obama even has a shot at N. Carolina.

And Virgina (which has been going repuke since 1964.)

[TheDave]

So in other words mcCain has to defend Repub strongholds just to "Keep it Close"... Nice

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by TheDave

So in other words mcCain has to defend Repub strongholds just to "Keep it Close"... Nice

The "straight talk express" is headed straight for the "bridge to nowhere."

[Old Dude]

More of same - - even based on Rove analysis:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/wash...-palin-ob.html

Based on that breakdown, Obama would hit the magic 270 with wins in any of these combinations in the margin-of error states:

1. Virginia (up by 2)

2. Ohio (up by 1)

3. Florida (even)

4. North Carolina (even)

5. Minnesota (up by 3) plus either NH (up by 1) or Nevada (down by 1.5)

6. Indiana (trailing by 2.5)

7. Missouri (trailing by 3)

That's a lot of ground for McCain to defend.

[TheDave]

Originally Posted by Old Dude

More of same - - even based on Rove analysis:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/wash...-palin-ob.html

Ouch...

[enjolras]

If the youth vote turns up this year, it's very much done. The polls are (generally) weighting their age ranges to the 2004 turn-out where youth participation was less than what one would expect with Obama running. If under-30 shows up this year (a VERY big if really) these swing states are going to by and large go Obamas way.

[Kaylore]

McCain got a bump from Palin but then everyone remembered we're not voting for Palin - we're voting for McLame or Obama. Also in talking with people in my party there are still a number who don't trust McCain and McCain's recent adds to try and tell everyone how he's not conservative has opened old wounds with his base.

I say again - if someone's own party doesn't trust them, why should the rest of America?

[Kaylore]

Originally Posted by enjolras

If the youth vote turns up this year

How many times have we heard that? Youth are the most worthless, unreliable voting base in America.

[snowspot66]

Because they are always choosing between the 60 and 70 year old men that they constantly have to instruct on how to use email or any other modern day electronics. It's the issue of a serious disconnect and Obama is the only candidate that's ever really mitigated that to any extent. His timing is perfect as well considering the younger age groups despise all things Bush.

I believe we'll see a higher than average turnout for that group.

[Old Dude]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

How many times have we heard that? Youth are the most worthless, unreliable voting base in America.

Historically, you are dead on.

And it might play out that way again. That will be one of the really interesting things to watch for.

Just from an anecdotal standpoint, though, I've seen a lot of very energized kids. (Forgive me, but from my standpoint, "kids" include anyone from 18 to 25) They have all registered, and are yapping about this stuff constantly. Not just in blogs and on their myspace pages, but in person. And not just at a party or get-together or weekend hangout or some in-thing political rally- - but everywhere, and for weeks and months now. And they are sounding pretty emotional about it, even when no one is paying much attention.

I'm pretty sure there will be an increased "youth" turnout, but I do wonder just how big it will be. If the election stays close, that might bring out more of them.

[alkemical]

http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.co...teal-next.html

SPOONAMORE REVEALS THE PLAN TO STEAL THE NEXT ELECTION
Here, in this shattering new interview, Stephen Spoonamore goes into harrowing detail about the Bush regime's election fraud, past, present and--if we don't spread the word right now--to come. Since he's the only whistle-blower out there who knows the perps themselves, and how they operate, we have to send this new piece far and wide.

Here Spoon tells us that McBush's team--i.e., Karl Rove and his henchpersons-- have their plan in place to steal this next election: by 51.2% of the popular vote, and three electoral votes.

He also talks about the major role played by the Christianist far right in the electronic rigging of the vote.

And he defines our electronic voting system as a major threat to US national security, calling for it to be junked ASAP, in favor of hand-counted paper ballots.

Since Spoon is a Republican and erstwhile McCain supporter, as well as a noted specialist in nosing out computer fraud, his testimony is essential--not only for its expertise, but, no less, for the impact that his views will surely have on those Republicans who have been loath to see what Bush & Co. has done to our election system.

That whole story's just about to break. In fact, tomorrow there will be a number of articles appearing, on a recent breakthrough in the lawsuit that Spoon's testimony has enabled, and on other aspects of that all-important case.

[Pseudofool]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

How many times have we heard that? Youth are the most worthless, unreliable voting base in America.

I agree. But I've worked at universities for three elections, and I'm seeing a competent grass movement (at least here in Michigan) that I've never seen before. The university is actually promoting student speakers to come into classrooms register voters and make sure people know how to get to a polling place. I guess the strategy is to register young people at their university and not at their permanent residence, so it's easier for them to vote.

I think this combined with the lack of cellphone data collected in the polls signals a real possibility of a landslide for Obama.

[Pseudofool]

Originally Posted by amesj523

http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.co...teal-next.html

SPOONAMORE REVEALS THE PLAN TO STEAL THE NEXT ELECTION
Here, in this shattering new interview, Stephen Spoonamore goes into harrowing detail about the Bush regime's election fraud, past, present and--if we don't spread the word right now--to come. Since he's the only whistle-blower out there who knows the perps themselves, and how they operate, we have to send this new piece far and wide.

Here Spoon tells us that McBush's team--i.e., Karl Rove and his henchpersons-- have their plan in place to steal this next election: by 51.2% of the popular vote, and three electoral votes.

He also talks about the major role played by the Christianist far right in the electronic rigging of the vote.

And he defines our electronic voting system as a major threat to US national security, calling for it to be junked ASAP, in favor of hand-counted paper ballots.

Since Spoon is a Republican and erstwhile McCain supporter, as well as a noted specialist in nosing out computer fraud, his testimony is essential--not only for its expertise, but, no less, for the impact that his views will surely have on those Republicans who have been loath to see what Bush & Co. has done to our election system.

That whole story's just about to break. In fact, tomorrow there will be a number of articles appearing, on a recent breakthrough in the lawsuit that Spoon's testimony has enabled, and on other aspects of that all-important case.

They can only steal the victory if there's a percieved possibility of a win. If the polls show Obama up by seven, and the exit polls show that as well. There will be riots in the streets, and I seriously doubt the Obama campaign will roll over like Gore or Kerry.

[alkemical]

Originally Posted by Pseudofool

They can only steal the victory if there's a percieved possibility of a win. If the polls show Obama up by seven, and the exit polls show that as well. There will be riots in the streets, and I seriously doubt the Obama campaign will roll over like Gore or Kerry.

Last time the exit polls didn't reflect the votes - people just assumed the polls were wrong. I guess they just didn't reflect which polls.....

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

How many times have we heard that? Youth are the most worthless, unreliable voting base in America.

"The masses are asses" - Alexander Hamilton, Federalist and the nation's first crooked politician.

[TailgateNut]

Originally Posted by Pseudofool

They can only steal the victory if there's a percieved possibility of a win. If the polls show Obama up by seven, and the exit polls show that as well. There will be riots in the streets, and I seriously doubt the Obama campaign will roll over like Gore or Kerry.

Bingo. After watching the treasonous actions and activities under the last fraudulent president, I doubt anyone with half a brain will allow it to happen again.

It'll be open season on the righties in my neighborhood.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

McCain got a bump from Palin but then everyone remembered we're not voting for Palin - we're voting for McLame or Obama. Also in talking with people in my party there are still a number who don't trust McCain and McCain's recent adds to try and tell everyone how he's not conservative has opened old wounds with his base.

I say again - if someone's own party doesn't trust them, why should the rest of America?

Amazing sidenote: The other day I watched an interview with McCain and the interviewer asked him about Kathleen Parker's recommendation that he drop Palin from the ticket. Of course, McCain said no go. The interviewer asked if he wasn't sending a message to the old school conservatives and McCain basically said let them do what they have to do, let them go where they have to go. If you don't know, Parker is one of the main voices of the Buckley wing of the old GOP. I took it to mean McCain was just writing them off. It really makes me wonder what the GOP turnout will look like. The hard Right fundies will show up for Palin, but I wonder how deep the turnout will be besides that?

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Pseudofool

They can only steal the victory if there's a percieved possibility of a win. If the polls show Obama up by seven, and the exit polls show that as well. There will be riots in the streets, and I seriously doubt the Obama campaign will roll over like Gore or Kerry.

Obama has banks of lawyers strategically placed around the country for just such an eventuality. If there is a hint of dirty tricks they will be able to immediately secure court orders to seize machines and ballots. There won't be any ****ing around this time.