Predictions on when the run on the banks begins?

[Bob]

I think within 8 months -- there will be a real problem with people taking out their money and with the FDIC backing accounts up to 100,000, when these banks those banks who are cash-poor will not have enough to keep the doors open. There are many reasons we are bankrupt like war, and loans to those who should have not been approved, and there will be much interest in blaming the other party to get points -- but will it really matter at that point? Niether party has the fiscal restraint to make cut deep enough accrosss the board to get us out -- and so the game they have played (and will play as long as possible) is pass the buck (and the blame.)

We had hearings for Enron -- well what they did was defraud investers -- but in the case of Freddy Mac, and Fannie Mae, they have defrauded a Nation -- and we hardly hear a peep in terms of accountability. Will there be any hearings? And why not? They said the debt we took on was 200 million -- they take us for morons, it will be in the trillions. At least part of the solution will be to print as much money as possible -- so that when we pay back our debts we will only be paying back debt with deflated dollars -- so paying old folks Social security in dollars that are deflated by 50% -- will be one way the government "keeps its promise" without keeping it.

This has been a slow moving train wreck for me for the past three years, for those that know me, its hard to not get depressed about how it is going to be handled. The solution is simply too painful, and too unpopular.

[TheDave]

My guess is... never

Things are bad, but no where near the level of armegeddon you are expecting. As for Fannie/Freddie, the bill could come to as much as $500 Billion. A hefty chunk of change but nowhere near the "Trillions" you are quoting. The reason that there are no hearrings is because this was beyond the control of the people in charge. We had a real estate bubble that burst and at the exact time these companies were highly leveraged in exactly that area. Was their fraud in this industry...Yes. But i do not see any obvious examples that Fannie/Freddie defrauded our investors.

[alkemical]

Originally Posted by TheDave

My guess is... never

Things are bad, but no where near the level of armegeddon you are expecting. As for Fannie/Freddie, the bill could come to as much as $500 Billion. A hefty chunk of change but nowhere near the "Trillions" you are quoting. The reason that there are no hearrings is because this was beyond the control of the people in charge. We had a real estate bubble that burst and at the exact time these companies were highly leveraged in exactly that area. Was their fraud in this industry...Yes. But i do not see any obvious examples that Fannie/Freddie defrauded our investors.

I'll tell ya - their cousin - sallie - can suck my nuts

[ak1971]

Originally Posted by TheDave

My guess is... never

Things are bad, but no where near the level of armegeddon you are expecting. As for Fannie/Freddie, the bill could come to as much as $500 Billion. A hefty chunk of change but nowhere near the "Trillions" you are quoting. The reason that there are no hearrings is because this was beyond the control of the people in charge. We had a real estate bubble that burst and at the exact time these companies were highly leveraged in exactly that area. Was their fraud in this industry...Yes. But i do not see any obvious examples that Fannie/Freddie defrauded our investors.

The FDIC may be strapped for cash, but there are a TON, yes a TON of small community banks $500-$750MM in cap who are waiting in in the wings, with tons of liquidity, and little or no exposure to the secondary markets. These guys are just waiting to gobble up deposits. I agree with Dave here..leverage is what is f'ing everything up...just as with the little guy cash is king right now.