Is the draft broken?

[Hulamau]

An interesting article on the wisdom of trading down ... especially from the top!

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3336491

[tsiguy96]

the drafting process is not broken, its the economics that go into that process that are. rookie contracts need to be capped, end of story. if they are not, the price of the 1-10 picks will skyrocket faster then the rest of the leagues salaries like they have the past 3-4 years.

[Hulamau]

The whole value chart is way out of whack as well making trading down a lot more difficult to the point teams are often trapped. But it all starts with capping the rookie contracts in some way that makes even a little bit of sense!

[Odysseus]

Good read.

[TallyBronco]

"In 2006, two professors, Yale's Cade Massey and the University of Chicago's Richard Thaler, published a study of the 1991 to 2002 drafts. They found that a first-rounder is nearly as likely to be out of the NFL after five years (8%) as he is to make the Pro Bowl during those five seasons (9%). And it gets worse. While top picks do perform better than lower ones, Massey and Thaler also discovered that performance falls off much faster than compensation, making No. 1 and No. 32 nearly indistinguishable from a value standpoint. In other words, at this year's draft, the Giants, selecting at No. 31, will likely grab as valuable a player as the Dolphins will at No. 1. If the Dolphins truly understood what they were up against, they'd let the clock expire on their choice 20 times and ultimately risk only $10 million instead of $60 million. "There is no science to the draft," admits Giants GM Jerry Reese. "If you guess right, you look smart. If you make a couple of wrong guesses, you look dumb. You just try to get more right than wrong.""

[CHANGSTER]

I wonder if its possible to actually let your pick expire to move down a few spots. What if the Fins decided to let their clock run out to a few times? Would the Rams have to pay #1 money? Could they just pass every time until they got
to a spot they want? All interesting questions.

[Man-Goblin]

Originally Posted by CHANGSTER

I wonder if its possible to actually let your pick expire to move down a few spots. What if the Fins decided to let their clock run out to a few times? Would the Rams have to pay #1 money? Could they just pass every time until they got
to a spot they want? All interesting questions.

The Vikings did it in back to back years, I believe.

[Killericon]

"There is no science to the draft," admits Giants GM Jerry Reese. "If you guess right, you look smart. If you make a couple of wrong guesses, you look dumb. You just try to get more right than wrong."

It's no coincidence that two of the teams that have been more active in trading down over the past 20 years—the Pats and Cowboys—have also been the two most successful franchises during that time.

I love it.

[no-pseudo-fan]

They have to cap those first round picks. The NBA did it a couple of years back. Now the NFL is going to have to do the same. The draft is suppose to make a team better, but with the amount of money these guys get paid at the top it is a burden. If you miss on a top 5 pick, you are saddled with cap problems and a bad team that has to pick in the top five again( I call this the Arizona/Detriot Syndrone). Misses are going to happen, and teams are going to passover future pro-bowlers and hall-of-famers. To much stock is put into measurables. I like to see football players, no fast guys in shorts.

[Man-Goblin]

Originally Posted by no-pseudo-fan

They have to cap those first round picks. The NBA did it a couple of years back. Now the NFL is going to have to do the same. The draft is suppose to make a team better, but with the amount of money these guys get paid at the top it is a burden. If you miss on a top 5 pick, you are saddled with cap problems and a bad team that has to pick in the top five again( I call this the Arizona/Detriot Syndrone). Misses are going to happen, and teams are going to passover future pro-bowlers and hall-of-famers. To much stock is put into measurables. I like to see football players, no fast guys in shorts.

It's not even if you miss. Look at the Cardinals and Fitzgerald. He's obviously a great player, but the monster rookie contract he signed forced their hand to give him an early HUGE extension. He could be on pace to make more money playing football than any non-quarterback.

[Tombstone RJ]

Originally Posted by no-pseudo-fan

They have to cap those first round picks. The NBA did it a couple of years back. Now the NFL is going to have to do the same. The draft is suppose to make a team better, but with the amount of money these guys get paid at the top it is a burden. If you miss on a top 5 pick, you are saddled with cap problems and a bad team that has to pick in the top five again( I call this the Arizona/Detriot Syndrone). Misses are going to happen, and teams are going to passover future pro-bowlers and hall-of-famers. To much stock is put into measurables. I like to see football players, no fast guys in shorts.

I don't think you can't totally cap the first round picks. That would give the pick absolutely no leverage to negoatiate a contract, he could then decide to not sign with that team. It could potentially create a huge mess.

What the NFL has to do is make all first round rookie contracts incentive laden. They get a base, some guaranteed pay and then everything else is determined by performance. That base pay can be $100k a year and then the guaranteed money will be based on position. A QB would make more than a safety. Let's say $3m guaranteed for a QB over his rookie contract, and $1.5m for a Safety over his rookie contract.

Everything else is based on performance. If the rookie gets injured, he still gets the guaranteed money, but that is all.

In other words, perhaps cap the guaranteed money, but the overall earning potential for the rookie is based on his performance. If he does well, he'll make lot's of money, but the team will benefit too.

[Drek]

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

I don't think you can't totally cap the first round picks. That would give the pick absolutely no leverage to negoatiate a contract, he could then decide to not sign with that team. It could potentially create a huge mess.

Yes, you can hard cap rookie contracts. Its very easy. Players either take the capped rookie contract or they can simply not play in the NFL. I don't see many 20-something collegiate football players having better options than taking the capped seven figure per year salary a first rounder could still make.

It takes leverage away from the player, but it also takes it away from the team. No more problems with a QB wanting above slot money or teams trying to low ball a guard or safety. You either take your slotted money and play or you sit on your ass and watch for at least a season.

Its basically capped as it is now, about a 10% hike over the previous year and throw on another 10% premium if the player is a QB. Players, agents, and teams spend all summer b****ing about the a difference between a 9% bump and an 11% bump, how much is guaranteed, etc..

I'm hoping that soon we'll see a hard slotting system on rookie contracts where they get guaranteed a larger portion throughout the draft and only earn significant deviations from the slotted money through performance bonuses. Put it out there as a take it or leave it system and 99% of collegiate players will take it.

The union should also get behind it as that'd open up more money to go to the mid-level veterans, the group of players that Upshaw has been screwing over year after year.

[2KBack]

Capping the rooks is a good idea, but there should also be shorter contracts, incentives, or out clauses. That way guys are actually paid not only by their draft position, but if they outplay that initial contract they aren't stifled for 4-5 seasons.