Drafting in the Shanahan Era: Wide Receivers

[BowlenBall]

Since I had so much fun looking at Mike Shanahan’s record of drafting offensive linemen, I figured I’d look at another position – wide receiver.

For the receivers, I’ve added their career stats to date, and also assigned them a letter grade for career performance. Obviously, this is somewhat subjective, but I calls ‘em like I sees ‘em, so please take the grades with a grain of salt. I do take draft position and career longevity into account when giving a grade – Kevin Kasper has been in the league for 7 years now (with the Browns at present), so his grade is higher than Darius Watts, who has comparable stats from a much higher draft position.

1996, 5th round – Patrick Jeffers. 93 rec., 1563 yards, 14 TD (B)
1998, 1st round – Marcus Nash. 4 rec., 96 yards, 0 TD (F -)
1999, 3rd round – Travis McGriff. 5 rec., 88 yards, 1 TD (F)
1999, 6th round – Chad Plummer. 0 rec., 0 yards, 0 TD (F)
2000, 3rd round – Chris Cole. 12 rec., 164 yards, 0 TD (F+)
2000, 5th round – Muneer Moore. 0 rec., 0 yards, 0 TD (F)
2000, 7th round – Leroy Fields. 0 rec., 0 yards, 0 TD (F)
2001, 6th round – Kevin Kasper. 24 rec., 287 yards, 3 TD (D+ / C-)
2002, 1st round – Ashley Lelie. 206 rec., 3552 yards, 13 TD (B-)
2002, 5th round – Herb Haygood. 0 rec., 0 yards, 0 TD (F)
2003, 5th round – Adrian Madise. 2 rec., 10 yards, 0 TD (F)
2004, 2nd round – Darius Watts. 33 rec., 407 yards, 1 TD (F+)
2004, 6th round – Triandos Luke. 6 rec., 52 yards, 0 TD (F)
2006, 4th round – Brandon Marshall. 122 rec., 1634 yards, 9 TD (A+?)
2006, 4th round – Dominik Hixon. 1 rec., 5 yards, 0 TD (F?)

Commentary:

1. My mother could draft receivers better than Mike Shanahan.

2. My mother does not watch football.

3. Ashley Lelie actually hasn’t had too bad of a career – he had a 1000 yard season for us before his ego went berserk. And 3552 career yards is better than many 1st round wide receivers, statistically speaking. As maligned as he is by Orange Maners, he wasn’t really a bust.

4. Marcus Nash, on the other hand.... Shanahan is Catholic, and that draft pick is gonna add a couple hundred years to his time in purgatory, if there is a God and He is just.

5. Even those players that flashed a little talent (Jeffers, Kasper, Lelie, maybe Hixon) were out of Denver in 2-3 years, and generally did their best work for another team. So, even when Shanahan made good picks on receivers, he still screwed it up by not developing them properly.

6. Math Problem: Shanahan has taken 15 receivers in the draft since 1995. He’s taken 16 offensive linemen. The average NFL team has twice as many linemen as receivers on their roster. Solve and discuss.

7. I don’t mean to be negative here, I really don’t. I’m a Shanahan fan, and I hope he coaches in Denver for another 20 years. But seriously, Pat Bowlen needs to take all the receivers off the Big Board in the War Room, for Shanny's protection.

8. Does anyone else get the sinking feeling that our 2008 1st round draft choice is going to be DeSean Jackson? Be afraid. Be very, very afraid....

Overall grade for drafting receivers: F (Brandon Marshall not withstanding)
Prospects for taking a receiver early this year: fair
Prospects for taking a receiver late this year: excellent (has taken a receiver every year except 1995, 1997, 2005, 2007)

Just to give Mike a break, I’ll look at running backs next....

[Kaylore]

I'm afraid of us taking DeSean Jackson too. I could also see us taking him and he ends up being the next Adrian Madise. Someone posted a joke scenario where we trade three of our picks to move up to 8 - and then select him. It wasn't funny because it sounds like Shanahan.

[CBF1]

Stop this talk... It is going to ruin my off season

[BowlenBall]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

I'm afraid of us taking DeSean Jackson too. I could also see us taking him and he ends up being the next Adrian Madise. Someone posted a joke scenario where we trade three of our picks to move up to 8 - and then select him. It wasn't funny because it sounds like Shanahan.

Yeah, that was me -- the Jarvis Moss trade-up from last year left me bitter and grumpy....

[cmhargrove]

I haven't watched all these kids in the regular season, but from watching the combine, the chances of finding a very competent #2 receiver look very good. There are at least six or seven that I would be really happy to add to the roster. None is worth trading up for. Now, trading down is a real possibility. However, I think the first four rounds will hold good choices of productive receivers (and RB's for that matter). None of these is worth breaking the bank for.

[rugbythug]

Part of this is Rod's Fault.

I want to see you add TE's into the equation.

[BowlenBall]

Forgot to do the round-by-round breakdown -- here it is:

1st round - 2
2nd round - 1
3rd round - 2
4th round - 2
5th round - 4
6th round - 3
7th round - 1

From the summary results, it's pretty clear Mr. Shanahan has no problems in pulling the trigger on a wide receiver pick in any round, in any year.

[Bronco X]

It's a bit harsh to grade all the 5th to 7th rounders as F's. I mean what are the realistic expectations?

Nash and Watts stand out as busts. Lelie was not as good as expected but he was decent as a Bronco. And getting Marshall by itself should raise the grade somewhat. I mean doesn't giving an overall 'F' imply no credit should be given for drafting a player in the 4th round that is already looking like a top 5 player at his position?

[BowlenBall]

Originally Posted by Bronco X

It's a bit harsh to grade all the 5th to 7th rounders as F's. I mean what are the realistic expectations?

Nash and Watts stand out as busts. Lelie was not as good as expected but he was decent as a Bronco. And getting Marshall by itself should raise the grade somewhat. I mean doesn't giving an overall 'F' imply no credit should be given for drafting a player in the 4th round that is already looking like a top 5 player at his position?

Fair question -- I'll give my (personal) opinion.

1. The draft is not a crap shoot, even in the 4th-7th rounds. Millions of dollars are spent by each team to scout and evaluate players, and the better teams (Patriots and Ravens these days, for example) consistently find talent in those rounds who contribute in some way to their team. In addition, the cheap labor these low-round players provide lets team spend more money on their marquee players, which is in effect a double-barrelled benefit.

2. The NFL draft used to be 12 rounds until about 15 years ago -- and even more than that in the 1970s and before. 4th - 7th rounders are not "low" round picks, in that they've always been expected to compete, make the team, and contribute for at least a few years.

3. Every year, a large number of players from the 4th-7th rounds end up on NFL rosters, not to mention undrafted free agents (UDFA). I don't have any stats on hand, but it must be AT LEAST 50-60 players, and possibly many more. The good players are out there in the later rounds, and good teams find them. Just think of the Broncos successes with UDFAs - Rod Smith and Matt Lepsis, anyone?

4. If a player has 0 catches for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns, how can it be anything less than an F for the talent evaluator? They picked them because they were better than all other players who were selected later, and better than all possible UDFAs. Therefore, it's an F. There can be no discussion on this point.

5. Conversely, unto those who much ($$$$) is given, much (production) is expected. Marcus Nash, Darius Watts, Chris Cole, Travis McGriff -- they all made more for their cup of coffee in the big leagues than I will in my entire working career. And Nash only has 4 more career catches than I do.

The overall grade of F is my general feeling for how well the Broncos (under the leadership of Mike Shanahan) drafts wide receivers. While Brandon Marshall is a success story so far, 1 home run, two singles, and 12 strikeouts is a fairly poor batting average.....

[Northman]

Wow, that is a really bad list. lmao

[NFLBRONCO]

While that list is scary WR position is bad for most teams. I think why Lelie was listed is we took him over Ed Reed that bummed me alot. I give a pass on Shanny because Lelie issues came from within not where he was drafted. If any player doesn't want to work hard on his game or compete that's his issue not Denver's. He wanted a free ride without working.

As bad as we have done drafting WR's we still can't be afraid to try and try again.

[Northman]

Originally Posted by NFLBRONCO

While that list is scary WR position is bad for most teams. I think why Lelie was listed is we took him over Ed Reed that bummed me alot. I give a pass on Shanny because Lelie issues came from within not where he was drafted. If any player doesn't want to work hard on his game or compete that's his issue not Denver's. He wanted a free ride without working.

As bad as we have done drafting WR's we still can't be afraid to try and try again.

No you cant be. For every bad pick there is a gem waiting.

[nickademus]

if we use a 4th on a reciever I am cool with that but if we blow a high pick on a WR I will have to contact the family and have shanahan whacked. of all the ways to elevate my bloodpressure.

[SureShot]

I will not be surprised to see Denver take a WR in the 1st round. Would you rather Desean Jackson or Limas Sweed?

[Broncojef]

If we stay at 12 and can't find a trade down partner I'm ready for the Shanny WTF scenario...it could be WR or any position for that matter.

[elsid13]

Originally Posted by SureShot7

I will not be surprised to see Denver take a WR in the 1st round. Would you rather Desean Jackson or Limas Sweed?

Sweed at least he has the size to play WCO. People don't forget Shanahan likes the bigger WR to block down field.

[Dedhed]

Originally Posted by SureShot7

I will not be surprised to see Denver take a WR in the 1st round. Would you rather Desean Jackson or Limas Sweed?

If we did go WR in the 1st, Jackson would be a better pick for the Broncos than Sweed. I think Marshall is going to be a beast regardless, but if we can get a receiver that can pull a safety down the field Marshall will only benefit. Plus, we finally have a QB that can get the ball down the field for real, and a speed receiver will actually have some value on the roster.

Add in the fact that Jackson would greatly upgrade our return game, and Desean would be a much better pick for us. I still hope we say no though.

[Northman]

Originally Posted by Dedhed

If we did go WR in the 1st, Jackson would be a better pick for the Broncos than Sweed. I think Marshall is going to be a beast regardless, but if we can get a receiver that can pull a safety down the field Marshall will only benefit. Plus, we finally have a QB that can get the ball down the field for real, and a speed receiver will actually have some value on the roster.

Add in the fact that Jackson would greatly upgrade our return game, and Desean would be a much better pick for us. I still hope we say no though.

I would like either one but Jackson does add help to the ST which is a need. We could use our very own Hester.

[Arkansas Bronco]

Question is can Jackson beat the bump? He is very small. I watched his pro day even though very light dude is pretty built so it kinda left me in question.