My proposed Denver/Dallas draft swap - The Orange Mane

montrose · 03-06-2008, 05:59 PM

I had mentioned this idea in another thread but thought it would be posted in the draft forum. Now, I’ve always been one to overlook the mock drafts and trade ideas proposed by fans – so it’s only natural I would come up with one myself. I’m interested to get some thoughts on it, as I’ve thought about this for a while. If anything else, it’s fun to discuss.

The Trade: Denver sends the #12 pick (1st rd) to Dallas for the #28 pick (1st rd), the #61 pick (2nd rd), the #92 pick (3rd rd) and the #187 (6th rd).

What we know: The higher the pick in the 1st round, the more you have to pay. With several key Broncos coming up for new deals in the not too distant future, the Broncos would love to avoid spending huge money on a 1st round pick this year. In addition, most draft pundits have held the consensus opinion that this year’s draft class does not see a steep drop in talent beyond the top 10 – in fact, some of the players going in the top 10-15 picks of certain mock drafts are going at the bottom of the 1st round in others. We know the Broncos have needs worthy of first round selection at OT, DT, WR and S. We also know there are players at those positions projected throughout the 1st round. In addition, the Broncos are short one 3rd and one 6th round selection from previous trades. This offseason, the Broncos have placed a priority on building through the draft and avoiding overspending in free agency. From Dallas’ perspective, it has been widely reported that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has his eye on Darren McFadden, a likely top-7 selection. Wabbit has reported that their has been talk that the Cowboys would be interested in dealing for Denver’s #12 pick.

Value Chart: Denver’s #12 pick is valued at 1,200 points on the draft value chart. Dallas’ #28, #61, #92, #187 picks equal 1,100.6 points. The difference of the trade is nearly exactly 100 points, the equivalent of the 100th overall pick in the 4th round. This means Denver is technically giving up more value in the deal.

Why it works for Denver: The Broncos need to accumulate more talent, and this deal brings about more draft choices to do that. In an offseason with limited spending, it puts the Broncos back into the 3rd and 6th rounds to total 11 picks that could be used to help fill talent holes at OL, DL, WR, FB, S, LB, P and K among others. In addition it allows the Broncos to drop in the 1st round, committing less money to their 1st round pick. At the bottom of the 1st round, the team can select the best available player at a position of need, without the guilt of overpaying for the player that could come at #12. The Broncos are giving up value in the deal, but it may be worth it to the team to pick up the extra picks and save the money that can be eventually used to keep young talents such as Brandon Marshall, DJ Williams, Elvis Dumervil and Tony Scheffler.

Why it works for Dallas: Jones has a history of wanting to make a splash, and with a team already loaded with Super Bowl talent – could be willing to sacrifice quantity for quality to land McFadden. By acquiring the #12 pick, along with Dallas’ #22 pick, the Cowboys have 1,980 points – a value placed between the #3 and #4 picks in the draft where McFadden is likely to be available. The Cowboys would still have other picks in 2008, player(s) or future picks in 2009 to make available as extra incentive. Dallas would then be able to move up for the player they covet while a team in the top 5 such as Oakland or Kansas City, with several holes, would have the opportunity to move down for extra picks in the 1st round and possibly beyond.

Problems in the deal: Undoubtedly the biggest problem is that the Denver/Dallas trade would be that it is a precursor to another deal. The Cowboys have no interest in keeping the #12 and #22 picks and being on the hook to pay major money to players other than the one they truly covet. Jones would need full assurances he has a deal in place to move into a position to get McFadden before he would complete this deal with Denver. With Miami, St. Louis and Atlanta all unlikely to take McFadden; Jones would either need to do a deal with Al Davis or have assurance that he (Davis) would not take McFadden which is certainly a possibility. Davis may have his eye on McFadden, or simply not want to do the deal as it helps Denver. The logical solution would be to deal with Atlanta, unfortunately the #3 pick is valued 300 points (the equivalent of the 60th overall pick in the 2nd round) higher than the #4 pick. Also, the #3 pick will cost more money to sign than #4 – especially considering McFadden’s high profile status and the 2007 rookie season of Adrian Peterson. Jones could hold out that Davis will not take McFadden or deal the pick elsewhere, assume Kansas City passes on McFadden at #5, and then try to make a deal with the Jets at #6 (1,600 points) who would gain tremendous value for their pick in exchange for #12 and #22 (1,980 points), gaining the value of 380 points which is the equivalent of the 52nd overall pick in the 2nd round. The Jets, however, may also have interest in McFadden themselves. There are certainly more than a few hang ups in this potential deal, but more complicated trades have been completed in the past.

Thoughts?

NFLBRONCO · 03-06-2008, 06:04 PM

I'd love this deal for us. We could fill 3 needs day 1 of the draft.

mattob14 · 03-06-2008, 06:22 PM

This is pretty close to the deal I'd prefer: #22, #61, and #92. That deal works out to, I believe, 1206 points on the value chart, almost a perfect match. I prefer it just because I think there's a chance that Otah or WIlliams slips to #22. Albert may still be on the board also. A DT like Balmer may also be available there but gone at #28. Either scenario works for me, I'm just not sure I want to move all the way down to #28.

SureShot · 03-06-2008, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattob14

This is pretty close to the deal I'd prefer: #22, #61, and #92. That deal works out to, I believe, 1206 points on the value chart, almost a perfect match. I prefer it just because I think there's a chance that Otah or WIlliams slips to #22. Albert may still be on the board also. A DT like Balmer may also be available there but gone at #28. Either scenario works for me, I'm just not sure I want to move all the way down to #28.

Screw giving the Cowboys a discount. Take the their highest #1. I like the 12 spot i think its possible someone unexpected slips to us.

BroncoBuff · 03-06-2008, 07:58 PM

Trade ONE pick for FOUR picks? You're just trying to get SoCal hot and bothered.

Seriously, though ... excellent in-depth analysis. I don't see a problem that it's precursor, Jones could lock up the second deal before he pulls the trigger on this one. And the sources that have him panting over McFadden appear pretty solid, so ... good job as usual montrose

This proposal has another advantage ... because the draft is top-heavy at DT and top-light at LB and S, #12 probably won't be the right spot for any of those positions. mattob14's alteration sounds better perhaps, if Williams could fall to 22. But my new theory is I don't think we're gonna draft an OT early. I'm gonna start a thread on that now.

footstepsfrom#27 · 03-06-2008, 09:15 PM

What happens when picks 92 and 187 are cut and the 12th pick turns out to be a stud who starts for 10 years. Pass.

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03-06-2008, 05:59 PM	#1
montrose Ring of Famer Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Denver, CO Posts: 6,095 Adopt-a-Bronco: VP John Elway	My proposed Denver/Dallas draft swap I had mentioned this idea in another thread but thought it would be posted in the draft forum. Now, I’ve always been one to overlook the mock drafts and trade ideas proposed by fans – so it’s only natural I would come up with one myself. I’m interested to get some thoughts on it, as I’ve thought about this for a while. If anything else, it’s fun to discuss. The Trade: Denver sends the #12 pick (1st rd) to Dallas for the #28 pick (1st rd), the #61 pick (2nd rd), the #92 pick (3rd rd) and the #187 (6th rd). What we know: The higher the pick in the 1st round, the more you have to pay. With several key Broncos coming up for new deals in the not too distant future, the Broncos would love to avoid spending huge money on a 1st round pick this year. In addition, most draft pundits have held the consensus opinion that this year’s draft class does not see a steep drop in talent beyond the top 10 – in fact, some of the players going in the top 10-15 picks of certain mock drafts are going at the bottom of the 1st round in others. We know the Broncos have needs worthy of first round selection at OT, DT, WR and S. We also know there are players at those positions projected throughout the 1st round. In addition, the Broncos are short one 3rd and one 6th round selection from previous trades. This offseason, the Broncos have placed a priority on building through the draft and avoiding overspending in free agency. From Dallas’ perspective, it has been widely reported that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has his eye on Darren McFadden, a likely top-7 selection. Wabbit has reported that their has been talk that the Cowboys would be interested in dealing for Denver’s #12 pick. Value Chart: Denver’s #12 pick is valued at 1,200 points on the draft value chart. Dallas’ #28, #61, #92, #187 picks equal 1,100.6 points. The difference of the trade is nearly exactly 100 points, the equivalent of the 100th overall pick in the 4th round. This means Denver is technically giving up more value in the deal. Why it works for Denver: The Broncos need to accumulate more talent, and this deal brings about more draft choices to do that. In an offseason with limited spending, it puts the Broncos back into the 3rd and 6th rounds to total 11 picks that could be used to help fill talent holes at OL, DL, WR, FB, S, LB, P and K among others. In addition it allows the Broncos to drop in the 1st round, committing less money to their 1st round pick. At the bottom of the 1st round, the team can select the best available player at a position of need, without the guilt of overpaying for the player that could come at #12. The Broncos are giving up value in the deal, but it may be worth it to the team to pick up the extra picks and save the money that can be eventually used to keep young talents such as Brandon Marshall, DJ Williams, Elvis Dumervil and Tony Scheffler. Why it works for Dallas: Jones has a history of wanting to make a splash, and with a team already loaded with Super Bowl talent – could be willing to sacrifice quantity for quality to land McFadden. By acquiring the #12 pick, along with Dallas’ #22 pick, the Cowboys have 1,980 points – a value placed between the #3 and #4 picks in the draft where McFadden is likely to be available. The Cowboys would still have other picks in 2008, player(s) or future picks in 2009 to make available as extra incentive. Dallas would then be able to move up for the player they covet while a team in the top 5 such as Oakland or Kansas City, with several holes, would have the opportunity to move down for extra picks in the 1st round and possibly beyond. Problems in the deal: Undoubtedly the biggest problem is that the Denver/Dallas trade would be that it is a precursor to another deal. The Cowboys have no interest in keeping the #12 and #22 picks and being on the hook to pay major money to players other than the one they truly covet. Jones would need full assurances he has a deal in place to move into a position to get McFadden before he would complete this deal with Denver. With Miami, St. Louis and Atlanta all unlikely to take McFadden; Jones would either need to do a deal with Al Davis or have assurance that he (Davis) would not take McFadden which is certainly a possibility. Davis may have his eye on McFadden, or simply not want to do the deal as it helps Denver. The logical solution would be to deal with Atlanta, unfortunately the #3 pick is valued 300 points (the equivalent of the 60th overall pick in the 2nd round) higher than the #4 pick. Also, the #3 pick will cost more money to sign than #4 – especially considering McFadden’s high profile status and the 2007 rookie season of Adrian Peterson. Jones could hold out that Davis will not take McFadden or deal the pick elsewhere, assume Kansas City passes on McFadden at #5, and then try to make a deal with the Jets at #6 (1,600 points) who would gain tremendous value for their pick in exchange for #12 and #22 (1,980 points), gaining the value of 380 points which is the equivalent of the 52nd overall pick in the 2nd round. The Jets, however, may also have interest in McFadden themselves. There are certainly more than a few hang ups in this potential deal, but more complicated trades have been completed in the past. Thoughts? Last edited by montrose; 03-06-2008 at 06:06 PM..

03-06-2008, 06:04 PM	#2
NFLBRONCO Ring of Famer Go Nuggets Go Lakers Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Lafayette Colorado Posts: 7,385	I'd love this deal for us. We could fill 3 needs day 1 of the draft.

03-06-2008, 06:22 PM	#3
mattob14 Perennial Pro-bowler New to the Forum Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 876 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	This is pretty close to the deal I'd prefer: #22, #61, and #92. That deal works out to, I believe, 1206 points on the value chart, almost a perfect match. I prefer it just because I think there's a chance that Otah or WIlliams slips to #22. Albert may still be on the board also. A DT like Balmer may also be available there but gone at #28. Either scenario works for me, I'm just not sure I want to move all the way down to #28.

03-06-2008, 07:58 PM	#5
BroncoBuff *************** Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Seattle Posts: 25,433 Adopt-a-Bronco: QUANTERUS SMITH	Trade ONE pick for FOUR picks? You're just trying to get SoCal hot and bothered. Seriously, though ... excellent in-depth analysis. I don't see a problem that it's precursor, Jones could lock up the second deal before he pulls the trigger on this one. And the sources that have him panting over McFadden appear pretty solid, so ... good job as usual montrose This proposal has another advantage ... because the draft is top-heavy at DT and top-light at LB and S, #12 probably won't be the right spot for any of those positions. mattob14's alteration sounds better perhaps, if Williams could fall to 22. But my new theory is I don't think we're gonna draft an OT early. I'm gonna start a thread on that now.

03-06-2008, 09:15 PM	#6
footstepsfrom#27 helmet to helmet hitter Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Arlington, TX Posts: 16,117 Adopt-a-Bronco: Joe Mays	What happens when picks 92 and 187 are cut and the 12th pick turns out to be a stud who starts for 10 years. Pass.