Primaries (3/4/08)

[Old Dude]

Early voting in Texas: 2 million.

An estimated two million voters showed up during two weeks of early voting. That's about 60 percent of the total state officials expect to vote in both party primaries. They overwhelmingly voted in Democratic races.

http://www.woai.com/news/local/story...8-6253ec277c8d

Rough weather and slow early turnout in Ohio:

Free Press reporters returned on Tuesday to the site of long lines and hours-long voting delays in the 2004 election and found low voter turnout, short waits and no major voting problems as Ohio¹s 2008 primary voting began on March 4th.

...

The apparently slow start of inner-city voting also was reported in Cleveland, where election protection staffers for People for the American Way reported a similar early turnout. The weather was rough across Ohio, with sleet in the morning in the north and rain elsewhere.

http://www.freepress.org/columns/display/3/2008/1638

While the polls in Ohio opened at 6:30a.m. Tuesday morning the voters didn't turn out as heavily has expected.

Poll workers at Ohio University's Southern Campus tell 13News that their station is normally very busy.

"We're one of the busiest poll stations in this precinct," said Eva Drummond, presiding election judge.

By 10:00am Tuesday only a hundred-five people had cast their ballots.

"We normally have three times that amount by now," Drummond said. "I was expecting a bigger turn out and early."

Drummond said the rainy weather could play a part in the lower numbers and is hopeful more people show up.

http://www.statejournal.com/story.cf...&storyid=35583

Heavy turnout expected in Vermont & Rhode Island, but no word yet ...

Vermont's secretary of state is predicting a record turnout. And in Rhode Island, officials are looking for turnout to more than double that of the 2000 primary.

Rhode Island officials are expecting such high traffic they're opening extra polling places. The state is also counting on about 21,000 new voters who've registered in recent months.

http://www.keyetv.com/news/state/sto...6-f2a701a51cea

[TexanBob]

I normally vote early and have my mind made up. Today, though, I'm probably going to go against my normal tendency and vote in the Democrat primary.

I feel like Kay in The Godfather telling Michael why she got an abortion. The Clintons are evil and this whole "Clinton thing" must all end...

I'll worry about Oprahma later.

"Knock her out and end all doubt."

[TailgateNut]

Originally Posted by TexanBob

I normally vote early and have my mind made up. Today, though, I'm probably going to go against my normal tendency and vote in the Democrat primary.

I feel like Kay in The Godfather telling Michael why she got an abortion. The Clintons are evil and this whole "Clinton thing" must all end...

I'll worry about Oprahma later.

"Knock her out and end all doubt."

Hope everyone delivers the knock out punch.

[Inkana7]

Originally Posted by TexanBob

I normally vote early and have my mind made up. Today, though, I'm probably going to go against my normal tendency and vote in the Democrat primary.

I feel like Kay in The Godfather telling Michael why she got an abortion. The Clintons are evil and this whole "Clinton thing" must all end...

I'll worry about Oprahma later.

"Knock her out and end all doubt."

Props for the Obama vote and even more for the Godfather reference!

[theAPAOps5]

Reading on realclearpolitics the polls swung back around towards Hillary at the end. Her relentless barage of attacks must have worked a little. But still she needs a landslide to flip the outcome I would think and its far from a landslide based on polls.

[Old Dude]

I think Obama and Clinton will both have their spin machines warmed up. (So would McCain if he had any opposition at this point.)

To knock her out, I think Obama would need to win 3 out of 4.

On the other hand, if Hillary wins 3 out 4, then I think she will get some solid momentum out of it (especially if 2 out of those 3 are Ohio & Texas)

Most likely they will split 2-2. And Texas might be further split between the primary and the caucuses making a win there even harder to evaluate.

I guess we'll see.

[defenseman]

I'm thinking Hillary continues on and does win texas/ohio and at least one other state. And the ritual suicide will continue on coming soon to a state near you......dman

[cutthemdown]

Obama has taken hits in recent days because he lied. He said he didn't have anyone go talk to the Canadians about not to worry about the anti-nafta talk when in fact he did have someone go. No one really believes the aid went and talked to canada without Obama knowing right? I mean cmon Obama is acting like he is President already and I think media decided to attack him on this one. Totally relevent unlike the McCain/Lobbyist story.

[theAPAOps5]

I think she pulls out Texas and Ohio but not in the way she needs. This trend will continue and come convention time it will be down to the SD with Obama still holding the popluar vote. Then things will get interesting.

[Old Dude]

Early exit poll resullts (as reported by AP):

FRETTING ABOUT THE ECONOMY

The economy was big in Ohio Democratic voters' minds — six in 10 said it's the most important issue facing the country, more than said so in any of the other 25 Democratic primaries with exit polls this year. More than half of Rhode Island Democrats and nearly as many in Texas picked the economy as the top issue out of three choices. In Vermont, almost as many voters picked Iraq as the economy — the first Democratic contest this year in which Iraq was considered about as important as the economy.

As in other Democratic primaries this year, few voters Tuesday viewed the nation's economy positively. But Texas Democrats were relatively optimistic, with one in seven saying the economy is in good condition — as many as have said that in any other state.

...

WORRIED ABOUT FINANCES

Asked how worried they were about their family's financial situation over the next year, two-thirds of Democratic primary voters in Texas and at least seven in 10 in the other three states said they were very or somewhat worried. Ohio Democrats were most concerned, with four in 10 saying they were very worried.

http://www.mlive.com/elections/natio...list=elections

[goldengopher1976]

Originally Posted by Old Dude

Early exit poll resullts (as reported by AP):

FRETTING ABOUT THE ECONOMY

The economy was big in Ohio Democratic voters' minds — six in 10 said it's the most important issue facing the country, more than said so in any of the other 25 Democratic primaries with exit polls this year. More than half of Rhode Island Democrats and nearly as many in Texas picked the economy as the top issue out of three choices. In Vermont, almost as many voters picked Iraq as the economy — the first Democratic contest this year in which Iraq was considered about as important as the economy.

As in other Democratic primaries this year, few voters Tuesday viewed the nation's economy positively. But Texas Democrats were relatively optimistic, with one in seven saying the economy is in good condition — as many as have said that in any other state.

...

WORRIED ABOUT FINANCES

Asked how worried they were about their family's financial situation over the next year, two-thirds of Democratic primary voters in Texas and at least seven in 10 in the other three states said they were very or somewhat worried. Ohio Democrats were most concerned, with four in 10 saying they were very worried.

http://www.mlive.com/elections/natio...list=elections

One of the panel guests on Bill Maher recently commented how, no matter what else is going on, elections always seem to come back to the old adage: "it's the economy stupid!". In the end, for better or worse, most Americans seem to be more concerned about whether or not they're going to be able to keep their big house and big-screen tvs and their ATVs and their spend-more-than-we-make lifestyles than they do about war or the environment or insert issue here.

[frerottenextelway]

Should I use a spoilers tag here?

I don't have specific numbers, but the exit polls show Clinton with a lead in both Texas and Ohio. Interestingly though, with the breakdown of the delegates, the Obama camp right now expects that Clinton will only net between 0 and -10 delegates tonight.

So who would ''win'' in that scenario? Bottom line is Clinton needs delegates not momentum, and lots of them. If the early exits are accurate, she'll essentialy be knocked out now and Obama will wimper into the main event.

[Old Dude]

Originally Posted by frerottenextelway

Should I use a spoilers tag here?

I don't have specific numbers, but the exit polls show Clinton with a lead in both Texas and Ohio. Interestingly though, with the breakdown of the delegates, the Obama camp right now expects that Clinton will only net between 0 and -10 delegates tonight.

So who would ''win'' in that scenario? Bottom line is Clinton needs delegates not momentum, and lots of them. If the early exits are accurate, she'll essentialy be knocked out now and Obama will wimper into the main event.

Do the exit polls reflect the 2 million early votes in Texas? Seems like that could have quite an impact on the final numbers there.

[frerottenextelway]

Originally Posted by Old Dude

Do the exit polls reflect the 2 million early votes in Texas? Seems like that could have quite an impact on the final numbers there.

I don't know, but I doubt it. And of course, it won't include the caucus either. What's surprising at this point though, is that it looks like Obama is going to come closer in Ohio than in Texas when pretty much every poll had him coming closer (or even a slight lead) in Texas. Rhode Island looks to be close too, which is a bit of a surprise.

[frerottenextelway]

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.c...M5NWY2ZGU3NzU=

First Word of Exits For Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont

This is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It's unclear whether this is different pollsters or, I suspect, different times of day.

For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

[frerottenextelway]

I say this everytime with the exits, but Clinton usually does better once the real numbers come out than the exists, although Wisconsin was pretty much on the money.

[theAPAOps5]

So lets say Hillary wins in the 5-8 margin both states thats a win but it pretty much changes nothing. How do they spin that or does Mo get back on her side?

[frerottenextelway]

Drudge:

EXIT POLLS: DEADLOCK IN TX, OH, RI

And yeah, ApaOps5. Alter of Newsweek had this out today: Hillary’s Math Problem
Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.

[Old Dude]

I'm sure that if Hillary wins in Texas and Ohio, it will be seen as a momentum shift (despite the fact that she was leading both states by much bigger numbers a month ago).

That should keep her around until Pennsylvania, even if she loses in Wyoming & Mississippi.

I think it's mostly a question of money and superdelegates.

A good spin on the results keeps the money coming in, and if she can keep the majority of superdelegates from committing to the "inevitability" of an Obama nomination, she might be able to pick up more momentum later on.

But she is running out of time.

[theAPAOps5]

I read that myself. I wonder if she will spin that a wins a win yet ignore that she won states where just a month ago she had double digit leads and they evaporated.

Could Obama not actually taking these primaries hurt him as some thought he might actually win them.

[Dudeskey]

Originally Posted by frerottenextelway

I say this everytime with the exits, but Clinton usually does better once the real numbers come out than the exists, although Wisconsin was pretty much on the money.

cough, diebold, cough

[frerottenextelway]

NBC Report: Obama has 50 superdelegates lined up for him this week.

I had heard about this yesterday or the day before, that Obama was holding off on some super delegates to give a crush this week in the news cycle, essentially forcing her out of the campaign if she doesn't decide to step down herself. But 50 is huge!

[goldengopher1976]

I've heard rumors. What do the rest of you hear about potential running mates for the candidates (Rep. and Dem.)?

I've heard these potential matches:

McCain & Romney
McCain & Matt Blunt

Obama & Bloomberg

Hillary & ??

[Dagmar]

MSNBC reporting Vermont for Barack & McCain.

[enjolras]

Obama / Bloomberg? That would be one hell of a ticket.... can't imagine Bloomberg is going to be interested tho.