Would You Draft Vernon Gholston?

[Drek]

Imagine a scenario where the first 11 picks are as follows:

1. Miami - Chris Long
2. St. Louis - Jake Long
3. Atlanta - Matt Ryan
4. Oakland - Glenn Dorsey
5. KC - Ryan Clady
6. NYJ - Darren McFadden
7. New England - Leodis McKelvin
8. Baltimore - Brian Brohm
9. Cincy - Sedrick Ellis
10. New Orleans - Mike Jenkins
11. Buffalo - Malcolm Kelly

In this case do you take Vernon Gholston as the BPA? He currently projects as a rush end, where we've already drafted three guys in the last two years, but we could also try getting him to play upright and develop him into the biggest freak to ever play sam the world has ever known. Its a big risk, but it could also pay off huge.

Would you do it?

[lex]

Pass.

[Kaylore]

If we switched to a 3-4 I would.

[Drek]

Originally Posted by lex

Pass.

Who would you take instead?

I'd say the options at that point would be Gholston, Chris Williams, and really, not much else worth the #12.

[TheDave]

Assuming we could not trade back... I would consider merling, mendenhall, stewart, williams, Otah or sweed before i would consider Gholston.

Fortunately i think there will be plenty of trade offers if Gholston falls.

[lex]

Originally Posted by Drek

Who would you take instead?

I'd say the options at that point would be Gholston, Chris Williams, and really, not much else worth the #12.

Like Ive said before, I think the players that are the greatest combination of value and impact at 12 would be T or RB. So, Id take Williams or Mendenhall.

[SoCalBronco]

No.

I don't believe in the concept of BPA.

[-Slap-]

Heretic.

[wabbit]

The Broncos will be targeting several elite (as they have them ranked) players who more than likely will be gone by the time the draft falls to them at 12 (hope springs eternal in the Bronco front offices).

If one, or more of those players is/are still on the board as the Bronco selection approaches, chances are that Shanahan will stay put, but the team is already receiving very priliminary calls from several teams looking to move up...among them; Dallas.

As a matter of fact, some very casual discussions took place during the Combine.

The sense is that Denver is ready & willing to be a trade partner for that 12th pick...problem is; so are several teams inside the top ten, including, and particularly Miami.

The effect that has is that the value diminishes considerably as you move out of the top ten UNLESS that one prized player some franchise other than your own just can't do without happens to fall to you.

It could happen this year, and the general feeling is that the Broncos are hoping it will.

[SoCalBronco]

Originally Posted by -Slap-

Heretic.

I think BPA creates absurd results. Even if you modified it to BPA at our position of greatest need, that would only be slightly better. I realize going purely by needs results in reaching, but there's a fourth way to work it. There has to be a sliding scale of value. We need to rank our needs and the also the level of priority for each one, because the difference between 1 and 2 might not be the same level of difference between 3 and 4, for example.
For us, the difference between 1 and 2 is not very big, IMO, both OT (1) and DT (2) are fairly close to each other in terms of priority, OT is slightly higher but its close. The difference between say 4 and 5 may be much greater. I think Safety would be 4th and WR 5th, despite being only one spot of difference, the priority is is much greater for S than WR. If we're at 42 and we have a S that is the 50th best player and WR that is the 40th best player, I'm going to go with the S, because the difference is not as great enough to overtake the difference in priority (and also because WR is much deeper in this class than S, so in a close call, we could get away with waiting till the next pick to address it). It's a balancing analysis at this point. We should compare the difference in priority against the difference in talent (and take into account the depth of the various positional classes to tip the scales if its a very close call). At 12, if Dorsey and Clady are there, I'm going to take Dorsey, not because he is the BPA, but rather because despite DT being the No. 2 need, he adds enough additional value to DT than Clady would to OT, so as to overtake the small difference in priority between the two spots.

[SoCalBronco]

Originally Posted by wabbit

The Broncos will be targeting several elite (as they have them ranked) players who more than likely will be gone by the time the draft falls to them at 12 (hope springs eternal in the Bronco front offices).

If one, or more of those players is/are still on the board as the Bronco selection approaches, chances are that Shanahan will stay put, but the team is already receiving very priliminary calls from several teams looking to move up...among them; Dallas.

As a matter of fact, some very casual discussions took place during the Combine.

The sense is that Denver is ready & willing to be a trade partner for that 12th pick...problem is; so are several teams inside the top ten, including, and particularly Miami.

The effect that has is that the value diminishes considerably as you move out of the top ten UNLESS that one prized player some franchise other than your own just can't do without happens to fall to you.

It could happen this year, and the general feeling is that the Broncos are hoping it will.

Very good stuff, Wabbit, thanks as always.

[JCMElway]

I voted yes to take Gholston, because having a rotation of Moss/Crowder and Dumerville/Gholston/Engelberger would be nice. Then we move Ekuban inside to penetrate on passing downs.

My main choice, however, would be to hope that someone was willing to trade up and take the deal. We have lots of holes to fill and getting a 2nd and a 3rd, or swapping first rounders and getting a 2nd and a 4th woulod be great.

[Dedhed]

Stand him up as a LB, and he fills a huge need with freakish talent.

[mattob14]

Originally Posted by wabbit

The Broncos will be targeting several elite (as they have them ranked) players who more than likely will be gone by the time the draft falls to them at 12 (hope springs eternal in the Bronco front offices).

If one, or more of those players is/are still on the board as the Bronco selection approaches, chances are that Shanahan will stay put, but the team is already receiving very priliminary calls from several teams looking to move up...among them; Dallas.

As a matter of fact, some very casual discussions took place during the Combine.

The sense is that Denver is ready & willing to be a trade partner for that 12th pick...problem is; so are several teams inside the top ten, including, and particularly Miami.

The effect that has is that the value diminishes considerably as you move out of the top ten UNLESS that one prized player some franchise other than your own just can't do without happens to fall to you.

It could happen this year, and the general feeling is that the Broncos are hoping it will.

Very interesting stuff. I still think a trade with Dallas would be the perfect scenario. With the extra first they have a lot of flexibility. Trading #12 for #22 and #28 would be the best case scenario, but it's a little lop-sided on the value chart. Other deals that match up fairly closely are #12 for #22, Dallas' 2nd and 3rd rounder. I'd take those two picks to move down 10 spots. Also, if Denver was willing to trade down to #28, Dallas could move that pick, next year's #1 and a 2nd or 3rd this year for #12. I'm not sure Dallas really wants to trade future picks, but it'd be tempting for them to have #12 and #22. In the end none of these are likely to happen, but there are a number of interesting scenarios.

[want2bAbronco2]

I would jump all over 22 and 28 from dallas. Im not sure that I would take there 1st next year, because it "should" be 28 or later. Dont think they would give us there 22, 2nd and 3rd, but I would jump on that as well (rather 2 1st though).

[Kaylore]

I wouldn't worry too much about Miami. There are fewer and fewer teams that are enjoying the idea of paying a player 30 mil guaranteed when he hasn't gone through a practice as a pro. I love Chris Long just as much as the next guy, but even that price is too much. I suppose if there was a team who would try it, it would be Dallas.

Regardless, I'd like to see us trade back seven or eight spots and take a Chris Williams, Brandon Albert, Desean Jackson or some other such player. Build the line!

[ohiobronco2]

I'm as big of a fan of Gholston as anybody on this board and I say don't take him. He's an amazing athlete, but he doesn't fill a need. I guess that really depends on if Moss is healthy this year. Too bad we moved up for that injury prone turd. We could have had Nelson last year and Gholston this year. Oh well, here is hoping that Moss can stay healthy and be productive this year. Anybody know how his rehab is going and what his weight is up to now, I'd like him to evolve into an every down D lineman.

[UltimateHoboW/Shotgun]

Originally Posted by lex

Pass.

What!?! Did we not watch the super bowl at all. The pressure that the giants put on Tom Brady turned him from "Tom Terrific" into a "Tom, Dick and Harry".

[RocBronc]

If Gholston is available when we pick than we'll be able to get a really good deal from a team that needs a Weak side DE or a 3-4... So take advantage of it and get some extra picks...

[Killericon]

I'd bet really good money that is Gholston fell to us, we'd find a trade-down partner.

[SpringStein]

I agree with Killer and RB....but - can you really see him getting past Cincy?

[Dedhed]

Originally Posted by SpringStein

I agree with Killer and RB....but - can you really see him getting past Cincy?

If Ellis or Dorsey are still on the board for Cincy, absolutely.

[chaz]

would Gholston be able to play SAM well? how do his skills translate? I know he's a freak but I'm wondering how the stuff besides 40 times translates to LB

[mattob14]

Originally Posted by chaz

would Gholston be able to play SAM well? how do his skills translate? I know he's a freak but I'm wondering how the stuff besides 40 times translates to LB

Personally, I don't see the SAM fit for Gholston. Physically, he's a big, strong, fast player who could get the job done there, but it just seems like such a waste of a pick to me. The guy's probably the best pure pass rusher in this draft, you want him attacking the QB every play, not locking up on TE's in pass coverage.

So, to answer the question, I think he'd be a good SAM in the NFL, but because of the role of the SAM in the 4-3, his talent would be wasted there. Now, if we ran a 3-4, he'd be a perfect Merriman-type OLB.