Week 5 /// STAT’ UPDATE \\\ - The Orange Mane

DeuceOfClub · 10-10-2007, 10:31 AM

This thread is for “stat geeks” (like myself). I used to run it every week in Broncomania (RIP) for the last two years (weeks 4-17)

The stat are broken down to 3 categories: Offense, defense and Special teams; there is also a section about penalties, and it is focused on the Broncos. For each stat category you'll see the score or average, NFL rank (1-32) change in rank since last week and also NFL 1st and last teams with their perspective scores.

Scores that are ranked in the top or bottom five are highlighted. And AFCW teams are also indicated.

There is also a summery of ‘Red Zone’ offense and defense success rates.

The next post is about ‘Strength of Schedule” based only on games already played.

I will also point out anything that I find interesting or unusual.

Week 4

For comparison, if you’re interested, last years final stat can be found here: 2006, 2005.

Feel free to suggest more categories if you think they can be helpful or other ideas for improvement.

DeuceOfClub · 10-10-2007, 10:32 AM

Offense

Code:


STAT                        SCORE    RANK      FIRST             LAST
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
points / game               15.0     26  -6    Patriots(36.4)    (12.6)
yards / game                365.2    5   ==    Cowboys(429.6)    49ers(203.2)
1st downs / game            19.8     9   -2    Patriots(25.6)    49ers(11.2)
3rd down conversions        47.5%   T8   +2    Colts(55.6%)      49ers(24.2%)
4th down conversions        37.5%    21  -9    (100.0%)          Bucc’s(0.0%)
time of possession          29:54    17  -5    Steelers(35:12)   49ers(25:38)
avg’ starting fp            25.7     31  ==    Bears(33.3)       Panthers(25.3)
run / pass ratio            48.6%    11  ==    Raiders(60.9%)    Packers(32.5%)

rush yards / game           138.8    6   -1    Raiders(194.2)    Chiefs(65.6)
rush attempts / game        28.8     10  -2    Titans(37.2)      Lions(19.6)
average yards / rush        4.8     T3   -1    Raiders(5.3)      Chiefs(3.0)

pass yards / game           226.4    11  +2    Packers(294.6)    49ers(117.2)
pass attempts / game        30.4     23  +2    Saints(44.2)      Raiders(23.8)
completion percentage       64.5%   T13  ==    Patriots(74.1%)   49ers(49.3%)
avg’ yards / attempt        7.4      8   -2    Patriots(8.6)     49ers(4.3)
avg’ yards / completion     11.6     7   ==    Cowboys(14.5)     Bills(7.6)

total giveaway / game ***   2.2      23  -3    Colts(0.6)        (3.0)
Intercepted / game ***      1.2     T17  +4    Jaguars(0.0)      Saints(2.3)
fumbles lost / game ***     1.0     T21  -9    Jets(0.0)         (1.3)
total fumbles / game ***    1.8     T22  -8    (0.6)             Raiders(3.3)

sacked / game ***           1.2     T5   ==    (0.6)             Lions(5.4)
sacked yards / game ***     5.2      3   -1    Colts(3.0)        Lions(30.8)

(*** indicates 1st is the lowest score / T = tied)

Red Zone Efficiency:
Total 1st down inside opp’ 20: 16
Total Touchdowns: 7 (43.8% success)
Total Field-Goals: 8
Total giveaways: 0
Turnovers on downs: 1
Kneel downs: 0

Defense

Code:


STAT                        SCORE    RANK      FIRST             LAST
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
points / game ***           27.2     25  -4    Steelers(9.4)     Bengals(32.2)
yards / game ***            333.2    20  -14   Steelers(235.6)   Browns(424.4)
1st downs / game  ***       19.0    T19  -1    Ravens(13.2)      Browns(23.6)
3rd down conversions ***    46.0%    27  -4    Patriots(29.4%)   Dolphins(51.4%)
4th down conversions ***    100%    T23  ==    (0.0%)            (100%)
opp’ avg’ starting fp  ***  30.8     18  +8    Jaguars(25.5)     Saints(35.3)
run / pass ratio ***        63.9%    32  -1    Titans(33.0%)     Broncos(63.9%)

rush yards / game ***       187.6    32  -1    Vikings(62.0)     Broncos(187.6)
rush attempts / game ***    36.4     31  ==    Titans(19.2)      Dolphins(38.4)
average yards / rush ***    5.2      30  ==    Vikings(2.5)      Bengals(5.3)

pass yards / game ***       145.6    1   ==    Broncos(145.6)    Bills(287.8)
pass attempts / game ***    20.6     1   +2    Broncos(20.6)     Vikings(40.5)
completion percentage ***   67.0%   T25  ==    Steelers(51.5%)   Bears(71.8%)
avg’ yards / attempt ***    7.1      21  -16   Redskins(4.9)     Saints(9.6)
avg’ yards / completion *** 10.6     16  -15   Colts(8.2)        Saints(15.3)

total takeaway / game       1.2      29  -8    Lions(2.8)        Saints(0.8)
Interceptions / game        0.8     T20  -8    (2.0)             Panthers(0.4)
fumbles recovered / game    0.4     T26  -2    Bears(1.4)        Raiders(0.0)
total fumbles / game        1.2     T23  -3    Lions(3.8)        Raiders(0.5)

sacks / game                1.8     T19  -5    Eagles(4.0)       Saints(0.3)
sack yards / game           11.8    T18  -2    Eagles(24.5)      Saints(1.8)


(*** indicates 1st is the lowest score / T = tied)

Red Zone defense:
Total 1st down inside Denver 20: 16
Total Touchdowns: 9 (56.3% success)
Total Field-Goals: 5
Total takeaways: 1
Turnovers on downs: 1
Kneel downs: 0

Special Teams

Code:


STAT                        SCORE    RANK      FIRST             LAST
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
punts average               51.3     1   ==    Broncos(51.3)     Patriots(36.3)
punts net average           36.0    T21  +5    Raiders(44.1)     Colts(29.4)
kickoffs average            67.4     9   -2    Chiefs(69.8)      Packers(60.3)

punts return average        6.3      25  +3    Bills(33.3)       Raiders(2.1)
kick return average         22.9     21  -1    Jaguars(31.5)     Panthers(17.9)

punts return (against) ***  20.5     31  ==    Packers(4.3)      Colts(29.5)
kick return (against) ***   25.8    T23  +2    Buccaneers(16.0)  Jets(31.9)

field goals percentage      75.0%    23  +1    (100.0%)          Saints(42.9%)


(*** indicates 1st is the lowest score / T = tied)

Penalties

Code:


STAT                        SCORE    RANK      FIRST             LAST
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total penalties / game ***  4.4      7   +1    Buccaneers(3.2)   Ravens(8.0)
penalties yards / game ***  30.2     5   +2    Buccaneers(22.6)  Eagle(64.5)


opponents penalties / game  5.2     T21  -1    Bears(9.0)        Colts(3.4)
opp' penalties yards / game 35.8     24  +2    Lions(66.6)       Colts(25.6)


(*** indicates 1st is the lowest score / T = tied)

DeuceOfClub · 10-10-2007, 10:32 AM

For each team you accumulate the opponent’s records.
(If a team played another team twice you add their record twice)
Then subtract the games against the team in question.
Then you calculate the percentage value.

Example:
Denver opponents: Buf (1-4), Oak (2-2), Jac (3-1), Ind (5-0), SD (2-3).
Combined record: [B13-10[/B]. / 0.565
Removing the games against Denver (2-3).
Combined record is 10-8.
Or 0.556%.

Just for reference, you have the “non adjusted SoS” (just the total W/L of the opponents). This is the way the NFL calculate it for ranking purposes.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Code:

   Team           OpW/L-adjusted     non-adjusted  (rank)
01 Cleveland      12-6    0.667      15-8    0.652  (04)
01 New Orleans    10-5    0.667      14-5    0.737  (01)
01 N.Y. Giants    12-6    0.667      14-9    0.609  (08)
01 Philadelphia   10-5    0.667      13-6    0.684  (02)
05 Buffalo        13-7    0.650      17-8    0.680  (03)
05 Chicago        13-7    0.650      16-9    0.640  (06)
07 Cincinnati     10-6    0.625      13-7    0.650  (05)
08 Indianapolis   11-7    0.611      11-12   0.478  (19)
09 San Diego      12-8    0.600      15-10   0.600  (10)
10 Seattle        11-8    0.579      13-11   0.542  (13)
11 Tennessee       8-6    0.571       9-9    0.500  (15)
12 Denver         10-8    0.556      13-10   0.565  (12)
13 St. Louis      11-9    0.550      16-9    0.640  (06)
14 Atlanta         9-8    0.529      13-9    0.591  (11)
15 Arizona        10-10   0.500      12-13   0.480  (17)
15 Miami           9-9    0.500      14-9    0.609  (08)
15 Pittsburgh     10-10   0.500      11-14   0.440  (22)
15 San Francisco  10-10   0.500      13-12   0.520  (14)
19 Tampa Bay       9-10   0.474      11-13   0.458  (21)
20 Jacksonville    7-8    0.467       8-11   0.421  (25)
21 Houston         9-11   0.450      11-14   0.440  (22)
22 Green Bay       8-10   0.444       9-14   0.391  (27)
22 Kansas City     8-10   0.444      11-12   0.478  (19)
24 Detroit         7-9    0.438       9-12   0.429  (24)
24 Minnesota       7-9    0.438      10-10   0.500  (15)
26 N.Y. Jets       8-12   0.400      12-13   0.480  (17)
26 Washington      6-9    0.400       7-12   0.368  (29)
28 Oakland         5-8    0.385       7-10   0.412  (26)
29 Baltimore       7-12   0.368       9-15   0.375  (28)
29 New England     7-12   0.368       7-17   0.292  (30)
31 Dallas          6-14   0.300       6-19   0.240  (32)
32 Carolina        5-14   0.263       7-17   0.292  (30)

DeuceOfClub · 10-11-2007, 02:42 PM

Few things to look at:

Offense:
Even after such a disaster game, the stat are “lagging’ behind, and most of the offensive numbers are in the top 10 or 15.
We all know are biggest issue is scoring / Red zone. And it’s painfully to look at the stat sheet: 5th on total offense, 6th rushing, 11th passing; yet only 26th scoring.
Other major issues are starting field position (result of no takeaways, and poor return game) and ball security.
On the positive side: Jay is well protected and is completion percentage is better than expected. Our running game is strong, but if we continue to fall behind that wont matter much.

Defense:
This is just bad.
Our pass defense is “ranked #1” only because our rush defense is so poor, why even bother passing.
A closer look revels that although the total passing yardage is low QBs completing a high percentage of passes for a high yard average.
On top of that we generate almost no turnovers, and we quickly slide to our ‘natural’ bottom 10 in sacks.

Special Team:
As usual our return and coverage teams are terrible.
Our ranking actually is higher than expected mainly because many teams started just as poor. Comparing to last years the number ‘should’ be in the bottom 3 all across the board. And I expect us to reach that area if we don’t improve soon.

Miscellaneous:
The Chiefs are in last place on rushing yards and avg’ rush.
After 5 weeks Brady completion percentage is still at 75%
Broncos and Vikings are trading places first-last / Rush D-Pass D.
Although they have yet to score a TD the Jaguars are leading on Kick return. The Jets who scored 2 already are few places down.
Both New England and Dallas are at the bottom of the SoS, but both will climb after Sunday. The Colts are 8th.

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

10-10-2007, 10:31 AM	#1
DeuceOfClub ™ 'Tebow Effect' in full effect Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Indian Rocks Beach Posts: 1,115 Adopt-a-Bronco: Aaron Brewer	Week 5 /// STAT’ UPDATE \\\ This thread is for “stat geeks” (like myself). I used to run it every week in Broncomania (RIP) for the last two years (weeks 4-17) The stat are broken down to 3 categories: Offense, defense and Special teams; there is also a section about penalties, and it is focused on the Broncos. For each stat category you'll see the score or average, NFL rank (1-32) change in rank since last week and also NFL 1st and last teams with their perspective scores. Scores that are ranked in the top or bottom five are highlighted. And AFCW teams are also indicated. There is also a summery of ‘Red Zone’ offense and defense success rates. The next post is about ‘Strength of Schedule” based only on games already played. I will also point out anything that I find interesting or unusual. Week 4 For comparison, if you’re interested, last years final stat can be found here: 2006, 2005. Feel free to suggest more categories if you think they can be helpful or other ideas for improvement.

10-11-2007, 02:42 PM	#4
DeuceOfClub ™ 'Tebow Effect' in full effect Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Indian Rocks Beach Posts: 1,115 Adopt-a-Bronco: Aaron Brewer	Few things to look at: Offense: Even after such a disaster game, the stat are “lagging’ behind, and most of the offensive numbers are in the top 10 or 15. We all know are biggest issue is scoring / Red zone. And it’s painfully to look at the stat sheet: 5th on total offense, 6th rushing, 11th passing; yet only 26th scoring. Other major issues are starting field position (result of no takeaways, and poor return game) and ball security. On the positive side: Jay is well protected and is completion percentage is better than expected. Our running game is strong, but if we continue to fall behind that wont matter much. Defense: This is just bad. Our pass defense is “ranked #1” only because our rush defense is so poor, why even bother passing. A closer look revels that although the total passing yardage is low QBs completing a high percentage of passes for a high yard average. On top of that we generate almost no turnovers, and we quickly slide to our ‘natural’ bottom 10 in sacks. Special Team: As usual our return and coverage teams are terrible. Our ranking actually is higher than expected mainly because many teams started just as poor. Comparing to last years the number ‘should’ be in the bottom 3 all across the board. And I expect us to reach that area if we don’t improve soon. Miscellaneous: The Chiefs are in last place on rushing yards and avg’ rush. After 5 weeks Brady completion percentage is still at 75% Broncos and Vikings are trading places first-last / Rush D-Pass D. Although they have yet to score a TD the Jaguars are leading on Kick return. The Jets who scored 2 already are few places down. Both New England and Dallas are at the bottom of the SoS, but both will climb after Sunday. The Colts are 8th.