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Old 10-03-2007, 11:22 AM   #1
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Default Week 4 /// STAT’ UPDATE \\\

This thread is for “stat geeks” (like myself). I used to run it every week in Broncomania (RIP) for the last two years (weeks 4-17)

The stat are broken down to 3 categories: Offense, defense and Special teams; there is also a section about penalties, and it is focused on the Broncos. For each stat category you'll see the score or average, NFL rank (1-32) change in rank since last week and also NFL 1st and last teams with their perspective scores.

Scores that are ranked in the top or bottom five are highlighted. And AFCW teams are also indicated.

There is also a summery of ‘Red Zone’ offense and defense success rates.

The next post is about ‘Strength of Schedule” based only on games already played.

I will also point out anything that I find interesting or unusual.



For comparison, if you’re interested, last years final stat can be found here: 2006, 2005.

Feel free to suggest more categories if you think they can be helpful or other ideas for improvement.
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Old 10-03-2007, 11:23 AM   #2
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Offense
Code:

STAT                        SCORE    RANK      FIRST             LAST
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
points / game               18.0    T20  ==    Cowboys(37.8)     Rams(9.8)
yards / game                382.5    5   ==    Cowboys(440.8)    49ers(213.2)
1st downs / game            20.5     7   ==    Patriots(26.2)    49ers(12.5)
3rd down conversions        47.9%    9   ==    Patriots(51.3%)   49ers(24.1%)
4th down conversions        60.0%    12  ==    (100.0%)          (0.0%)
time of possession          30:36    12  ==    Patriots(35:09)   Browns(25:24)
avg’ starting fp            24.7     31  ==    Steelers(34.7)    Panthers(24.3)
run / pass ratio            51.7%    9   ==    Titans(62.2%)     Packers(31.7%)

rush yards / game           155.5    5   ==    Raiders(194.2)    Packers(54.2)
rush attempts / game        31.0    T8   ==    Titans(39.0)      (19.8)
average yards / rush        5.0      2   ==    Raiders(5.3)      Packers(2.7)

pass yards / game           227.0    13  ==    Lions(312.8)      49ers(118.0)
pass attempts / game        29.0     25  ==    Saints(43.3)      Bucc's(23.5)
completion percentage       64.7%    13  ==    Patriots(79.2%)   49ers(47.0%)
avg’ yards / attempt        7.8      6   ==    Cowboys(9.5)      49ers(4.0)
avg’ yards / completion     12.1     7   ==    Cowboys(16.0)     Saints(7.8)

total giveaway / game ***   2.0      20  ==    Colts(0.5)        Bears(3.5)
Intercepted / game ***      1.3     T21  ==    (0.0)             Saints(2.3)
fumbles lost / game ***     0.8     T12  ==    Jets(0.0)         (1.5)
total fumbles / game ***    1.5     T14  ==    (0.8)             Bears(3.5)

sacked / game ***           1.3     T5   ==    (0.8)             Lions(5.3)
sacked yards / game ***     4.5      2   ==    Colts(3.8)        Bears(33.5)

(*** indicates 1st is the lowest score / T = tied)
Red Zone Efficiency:
Total 1st down inside opp’ 20: 15
Total Touchdowns: 7 (46.7% success)
Total Field-Goals: 7
Total giveaways: 0
Turnovers on downs: 1
Kneel downs: 0



Defense

Code:

STAT                        SCORE    RANK      FIRST             LAST
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
points / game ***           23.8    T21  ==    Buccaneers(11.0)  Saints(34.3)
yards / game ***            295.9    6   ==    Patriots(226.0)   Bills(430.2)
1st downs / game  ***       18.8    T18  ==    Steelers(14.8)    Browns(23.8)
3rd down conversions ***    43.4%    23  ==    Patriots(30.0%)   Dolphins(51.8%)
4th down conversions ***    100%    T24  ==    (0.0%)            (100%)
opp’ avg’ starting fp  ***  33.1     26  ==    Falcons(25.6)     Dolphins(34.6)
run / pass ratio ***        63.0%    31  ==    Titans(32.0%)     Dolphins(66.1%)

rush yards / game ***       181.0    31  ==    Vikings(62.0)     Dolphins(199.2)
rush attempts / game ***    36.2     31  ==    Titans(18.3)      Dolphins(41.0)
average yards / rush ***    5.0      30  ==    Vikings(2.5)      Bengals(5.3)

pass yards / game ***       114.5    1   ==    Broncos(114.5)    Bills(282.2)
pass attempts / game ***    21.2     3   ==    Jaguars(20.3)     Vikings(40.5)
completion percentage ***   65.9%    25  ==    Steelers(52.6%)   Bears(71.5%)
avg’ yards / attempt ***    5.4      5   ==    Buccaneers(5.1)   Saints(10.0)
avg’ yards / completion *** 8.2      1   ==    Broncos(8.2)      Saints(15.6)

total takeaway / game       1.5     T21  ==    Lions(3.3)        Saints(0.7)
Interceptions / game        1.0     T12  ==    (2.3)             Panthers(0.0)
fumbles recovered / game    0.5     T24  ==    Panthers(1.5)     Raiders(0.0)
total fumbles / game        1.5      20  ==    Lions(3.5)        (0.5)

sacks / game                2.3     T14  ==    (4.0)             Saints(0.0)
sack yards / game           14.8    T16  ==    Lions(25.5)       Saints(0.0)


(*** indicates 1st is the lowest score / T = tied)
Red Zone defense:
Total 1st down inside Denver 20: 11
Total Touchdowns: 6 (54.5% success)
Total Field-Goals: 3
Total takeaways: 1
Turnovers on downs: 1
Kneel downs: 0



Special Teams
Code:

STAT                        SCORE    RANK      FIRST             LAST
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
punts average               51.7     1   ==    Broncos(51.7)     Titans(36.6)
punts net average           34.3     26  ==    Raiders(44.1)     Colts(29.1)
kickoffs average            67.1    T7   ==    Chiefs(69.5)      Dolphins(57.9)

punts return average        4.6      28  ==    Bills(33.3)       Raiders(2.1)
kick return average         22.8     20  ==    Patriots(32.5)    Saints(18.3)

punts return (against) ***  24.0     31  ==    Patriots(0.0)     Colts(29.5)
kick return (against) ***   25.9     25  ==    Buccaneers(15.3)  Jets(35.0)

field goals percentage      72.7%    24  ==    (100.0%)          Saints(33.3%)


(*** indicates 1st is the lowest score / T = tied)

Penalties
Code:

STAT                        SCORE    RANK      FIRST             LAST
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total penalties / game ***  4.8      8   ==    Saints(3.0)       Ravens(8.3)
penalties yards / game ***  33.3     7   ==    Buccaneers(23.0)  Ravens(66.8)


opponents penalties / game  5.0     T20  ==    Lions(9.8)        Colts(3.5)
opp' penalties yards / game 33.5     26  ==    Giants(71.8)      Colts(26.8)


(*** indicates 1st is the lowest score / T = tied)

Last edited by DeuceOfClub; 10-03-2007 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 10-03-2007, 11:24 AM   #3
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For each team you accumulate the opponent’s records.
(If a team played another team twice you add their record twice)
Then subtract the games against the team in question.
Then you calculate the percentage value.

Example:
Denver opponents: Buf (1-3), Oak (2-2), Jac (2-1), Ind (4-0).
Combined record: 9-6. / 0.600
Removing the games against Denver (2-2).
Combined record is 7-4.
Or 0.636%.

Just for reference, you have the “non adjusted SoS” (just the total W/L of the opponents). This is the way the NFL calculate it for ranking purposes.



STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE


Code:
   Team           OpW/L-adjusted     non-adjusted  (rank)
01 N.Y. Giants     9-2    0.818      11-4    0.733  (02)
02 New Orleans     6-2    0.750       9-2    0.818  (01)
03 Philadelphia    8-3    0.727      11-4    0.733  (02)
04 Tennessee       5-2    0.714       6-4    0.600  (11)
05 Arizona         8-4    0.667      10-6    0.625  (07)
05 Cincinnati      8-4    0.667      11-5    0.688  (04)
05 San Diego       8-4    0.667      11-5    0.688  (04)
08 Denver          7-4    0.636       9-6    0.600  (11)
09 Indianapolis    6-4    0.600       6-8    0.429  (23)
10 Buffalo         7-5    0.583      10-6    0.625  (07)
10 Chicago         7-5    0.583      10-6    0.625  (07)
10 Houston         7-5    0.583       9-7    0.563  (14)
10 Minnesota       7-5    0.583      10-6    0.625  (07)
10 Oakland         7-5    0.583       9-7    0.563  (14)
10 Seattle         7-5    0.583       8-8    0.500  (16)
10 St. Louis       7-5    0.583      11-5    0.688  (04)
17 Cleveland       6-6    0.500       8-8    0.500  (16)
17 Jacksonville    4-4    0.500       5-6    0.455  (20)
17 Pittsburgh      6-6    0.500       7-9    0.438  (21)
17 San Francisco   6-6    0.500       8-8    0.500  (16)
21 Miami           5-6    0.455       9-6    0.600  (11)
22 Green Bay       5-7    0.417       5-11   0.313  (27)
23 Atlanta         4-7    0.364       7-8    0.467  (19)
23 Tampa Bay       4-7    0.364       5-10   0.333  (26)
25 Baltimore       4-8    0.333       6-10   0.375  (24)
25 Carolina        4-8    0.333       6-10   0.375  (24)
25 Detroit         4-8    0.333       5-11   0.313  (27)
25 New England     4-8    0.333       4-12   0.250  (30)
25 N.Y. Jets       4-8    0.333       7-9    0.438  (21)
30 Dallas          3-9    0.250       3-13   0.188  (32)
30 Kansas City     3-9    0.250       5-11   0.313  (27)
32 Washington      2-7    0.222       3-9    0.250  (30)
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Old 10-03-2007, 11:38 AM   #4
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Meaty stuff. Nice........


Even after the Jacksonville TOP fiasco, we're still 12th in the league. 2nd to Fade in team ypc.

Last edited by BroncoBuff; 10-03-2007 at 11:40 AM..
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Old 10-03-2007, 11:43 AM   #5
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Awesome posts. Keep it up.

Our rush defense has turned to a house of cards.

My kingdom for a stud DT and healthy Al Wilson!
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Old 10-03-2007, 11:48 AM   #6
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Quote:
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My kingdom for a stud DT and healthy Al Wilson!
Can't help you with Wilson, but ..........
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Old 10-03-2007, 12:53 PM   #7
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My name is CBF1 and I am a stat junkie.

Best thread in a long time. I look forward to it each week. REP
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Old 10-03-2007, 01:06 PM   #8
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Couldn't help notice this discrepency:

punts average 51.7 1 == Broncos(51.7) Titans(36.6)
punts net average 34.3 26 == Raiders(44.1) Colts(29.1)

Who cares what the punt average is? Net is what counts.
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Old 10-03-2007, 01:13 PM   #9
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Good stuff.

How about avg. starting field possession. Do you have a way of tracking that?

I can never find it. It's never with the usual stats you find everywhere. I'm guessing it would be right about the 20yrd line at this moment? I know we're at the bottom.
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Old 10-03-2007, 01:29 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpringStein View Post
Couldn't help notice this discrepency:

punts average 51.7 1 == Broncos(51.7) Titans(36.6)
punts net average 34.3 26 == Raiders(44.1) Colts(29.1)

Who cares what the punt average is? Net is what counts.
You figure that's coverage or hang-time to blame? Or both?
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Old 10-03-2007, 01:30 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpringStein View Post

Who cares what the punt average is?
Coaches care... and maybe punters. Helps determine ST play statistically.
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Old 10-03-2007, 02:32 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bronco Yoda View Post
Good stuff.

How about avg. starting field possession. Do you have a way of tracking that?

I can never find it. It's never with the usual stats you find everywhere. I'm guessing it would be right about the 20yrd line at this moment? I know we're at the bottom.
Good point.
I added average starting field positions on both sides (O/D). As you guessed, it’s not very good:

Broncos’ average starting field position is on the 24.7-yards line, ranked 31st.
Broncos’ opponents average starting field position is on the 33.1-yards line, ranked 26th.

Football Outsider gathers lots of stat regarding drives, including average starting field position right HERE.
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Old 10-03-2007, 02:37 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpringStein View Post
Couldn't help notice this discrepency:

punts average 51.7 1 == Broncos(51.7) Titans(36.6)
punts net average 34.3 26 == Raiders(44.1) Colts(29.1)

Who cares what the punt average is? Net is what counts.
Both short hang time and poor coverage are in play here. And the discrepancy is far too high to be considered natural (as a rule, on both punts and kick, the longer the kick the longer the return).

Another point to consider: when you punt to the endzone (touchback), which happened too many times this year, there is automatically 20-yards difference between punt length and the punt net.
On the other hand with our poor coverage that might not be a bad idea.
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Old 10-03-2007, 02:48 PM   #14
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People really need to look at the punting figures more closely. In the case here, the numbers really do lie. We've only punted 9 times. One of those punts was returned for a TD. That one punt totally skewed all the numbers.

Don't let that one punt fool you......since that one punt in game one, Sauerbraun has led the league in both gross and net punting.

Another point to consider: when you punt to the endzone (touchback), which happened too many times this year....

All of his touchbacks have come from the Denver side of the field, so it's not like he's screwing up intentional pooch punts or anything. And why on earth, with the terrible coverage and tackling the Broncos have been exhibiting, would you ever want Sauerbraun keeping the punt in the field of play anyway? Nothing good can happen there.
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Old 10-03-2007, 03:55 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beantown Bronco View Post
People really need to look at the punting figures more closely. In the case here, the numbers really do lie. We've only punted 9 times. One of those punts was returned for a TD. That one punt totally skewed all the numbers.

Don't let that one punt fool you......since that one punt in game one, Sauerbraun has led the league in both gross and net punting.

Another point to consider: when you punt to the endzone (touchback), which happened too many times this year....

All of his touchbacks have come from the Denver side of the field, so it's not like he's screwing up intentional pooch punts or anything. And why on earth, with the terrible coverage and tackling the Broncos have been exhibiting, would you ever want Sauerbraun keeping the punt in the field of play anyway? Nothing good can happen there.

As always, stats and figures are only a a part of the picture! I love them, and they tell a good story, but it's only half the story if you don't know what actually happened! It's always good information to look at, though!

I'd be interested in knowing the difference between top and bottom of the average starting position. I can't imagine it's a whole lot. What would be the most helpful would be to see how often we start behind our own 20! Just one good return (or the opposite) could skew those numbers.
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Old 10-03-2007, 04:59 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeuceOfClub View Post
Good point.
I added average starting field positions on both sides (O/D). As you guessed, it’s not very good:

Broncos’ average starting field position is on the 24.7-yards line, ranked 31st.
Broncos’ opponents average starting field position is on the 33.1-yards line, ranked 26th.

Football Outsider gathers lots of stat regarding drives, including average starting field position right HERE.
Rep
you da man!

btw last week I heard (on the tube) we were at 20.5 . Did we really improve that much in one game? It didn't seem like it.

Last edited by Bronco Yoda; 10-03-2007 at 05:05 PM..
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Old 10-03-2007, 05:07 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smalltowngrll View Post
As always, stats and figures are only a a part of the picture! I love them, and they tell a good story, but it's only half the story if you don't know what actually happened! It's always good information to look at, though!

I'd be interested in knowing the difference between top and bottom of the average starting position. I can't imagine it's a whole lot. What would be the most helpful would be to see how often we start behind our own 20! Just one good return (or the opposite) could skew those numbers.
A Bronco babe who loves stats.... where were you when I was still single?

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Old 10-03-2007, 06:20 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bronco Yoda View Post
A Bronco babe who loves stats.... where were you when I was still single?

I suspect there are a few of us on here
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Old 10-04-2007, 12:38 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bronco Yoda View Post
A Bronco babe who loves stats.... where were you when I was still single?



Awwww, well, ya know!

Love stats...in proper perspective, of course. Looking forward to next week's!!! Better starting field position, hopefully!!!
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Old 10-04-2007, 11:33 AM   #20
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Sassy & STG
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