Take a look at our schedule again

[Kaylore]

I always try to make the point that while people try to say "so-and-so has the easiest schedule" or the hardest or whatever, often it doesn't look that way after the regular season starts.

Vs. Jacksonville
They look like I thought they would. Their offense isn't very good and they aren't running the ball like they should. Average team.
At Indianapolis
They look good across the board. Manning is in his prime and close to perfect. I don't expect to win this one.
VS. San Diego
Surprise! Norvification of the Chargers is already happening. Now I'll admit that the Patriots look so amazing that they would probably make a lot of teams look bad, but you have to wonder if they'll have regressed when we face them. I have never feared a Norv Turner lead team and I still feel that way. This game is winnable.
BYE
We always win our bye.
Vs. Pittsburgh
They look really good so far. If they keep going like they have been, they are going to give us problems. I think we will be a lot better by the time we face them, but they can get better too.
Vs. Green Bay
Again, suddenly they look better than we expected. That would be two tough opponents in back-to-back games. We're going to play a lot of tough defenses this year.
At Detroit
Another team that is showing up. I have less faith in the Lions than these other franchises, but this game won't be the pushover game we are all expecting. On the road, in the dome. No this will a tough one too.
At Kansas City
They suck. Plain and simple. Still it is in KC and it doesn't seem to matter how good we are or how bad they are, they always seem to find a way to win in Arrowhead. I think we can win this game, though.
Vs. Tennessee
They are tough but with no receivers for young to throw to, we should own this matchup. Their corners suck too.
At Chicago
Another tough defense and on the road. I hope our special teams has made some strides by then or we're going to get owned. Their offense has looked lack-luster, though. Maybe Griese will be the starter by then! We'll see.
At Oakland
We saw how close it was. This is a game we could lose. I have a feeling our team will be more together by then, though.
Vs. Kansas City
We'll win.
At Houston
Another game that will be harder than people think. Houston looks good. A solid defense and a Kubiak offense? Kubes will want to beat Shanahan to make a statement as well. I think we could lose this one.
At San Diego
It will depend on how the team looks. If Norv has driven out the will of the team by then and Rivers' struggles (which appear to have carried over from last year) continue as he implodes, then we can win this one. It won't be easy.
Vs. Minnesota
They are better this year, but their inconsistency at QB might hurt. I'll say this, though. If we don't shore up our rushing D, this team and many others we play this year will eat us alive.

My point is that a lot of these games that we saw earlier in the year and thought "easy wins" are in fact going to be big challenges for us. It's still early and a lot of teams can go one way or another, but suddenly the schedule looks much more difficult than we thought it would be.

[lazarus4444]

I'd rather have a hard schedule than an easy one.

[Vegas_Bronco]

Great Post. Boy it's nice to start the season with a potential 3-0 record. I was just thinking the same and came up with 11-5 with loses coming against Indy, San Diego, Detroit (nasty place), Chicago, Tennessee. Great thing is we already have 2 wins so we need just 9 more in the remaining 15 weeks - we stay healthy and it looks really good. We will win the AFC West this year, no doubt about it!

[Kaylore]

Originally Posted by lazarus4444

I'd rather have a hard schedule than an easy one.

I would too. And just so you know I'm not complaining. Just pointing out that the schedule doesn't always "work" like it's supposed to.

[SoCalBronco]

That's a very good point, Khan. In just a couple weeks, the entire complexion of the schedule can change significantly. All the more reason to make sure we take advantage of the games where we definitely should win, such as this week vs. Jacksonville.

Right now, there are two things holding this team back. I believe if we can make significant improvements in one of the two (and I am fairly certain we will in one, not sure about the other though), then we have a very good chance to get into the playoffs even with the schedule looking alot more daunting. The two issues are ofcourse, translating the offensive dominance in terms of yardage into points. We started to do that this week in the first half, we were rolling down the field and scoring points, Marshall's TD got us up to 24 by the early 3rd quarter, and then ofcourse it was called back and that seemed to shake things up for the rest of the game. But we have now started to demonstrate the ability to make yards=expected point totals from those yards. I would submit that it is basically impossible to keep racking up 400+ yardage games without starting to really score, its just a very weird oddity, 4 out of 5 times you are in the 400s, you are probably in at least the high twenties and probably the early 30s. So I am not concerned about it that much. The odds of probability simply have to break through at some point. The key is maintaining the level of superior gameplanning and play selection that has allowed us to move up and down the field. We are obviously putting in some new wrinkles this year, it is now a matter of seeing how fast (if at all), other teams began to spot tendencies and then prepare for them. You'll notice this week that Shanahan employed a number of tendency breakers, he can anticipate people starting to have enough plays on film to start to find some real tendencies in the 2007 scheme, so what did he do: He started running more on third on medium and third and long, a statistical rarity, sometimes it worked(S. Young run), sometimes it didn't, but the point is, he is trying to stay ahead of the game, he is breaking tendencies. Another thing you'll notice which he did as a tendency breaker is formationing and plays. We generally run similar plays but from a number of different formations. Against Oakland, we did not use very many formations at all, in fact, the dominant formation we used was an offset I scheme with Daniel Graham motioning in off short motion, I can't tell you how many times we ran that same formation with that same short motion, it must have been at least a dozen, probably more, yet this time we ran several different plays out of just a few formations. So we are really mixing alot of things up. This is the way to stay ahead of the game. We are now making it more difficult to scout based on formationing. These are just a few of the reasons why, I think, Shanny will continue to have a powerful offense, yardage wise, but we now must turn it into points, and I think we will.

The other big problem is the run defense. The run defense is something that is going to be difficult to fix for a number of reasons: a) We are putting alot of pressure on DTs to get double teamed, so that the linebackers can freely attack the ballcarrier, when they (DTs) really are not guys who have the talent to command a double team (with the exception, at times, of Sam Adams), so if they are going to be able to do their job, they'll have to have truly superior technique and leverage, because, unless and until Thomas becomes a real force (which is starting to happen, albeit slowly, which is to be expected), the talent isnt there to FORCE double teams, b) Bates has a strong preference for 7 man fronts over 8 man fronts, the coverages he likes need to be run out of 2 safety high defenses (such as Quarters coverage for example, a popular coverage which combines elements of man to man coverage with matchup zone principles, it is one of the staples of the Jimmy Johnson style defense that Bates employs), so it will not be as simple as bringing another guy (Lynch) into the box to help, without disrupting the overall scheme. We have, on occasion, so far done that, but the large majority of the time we have stuck with the 7 man front because that is what the scheme is centered around. I do think we will see some improvement in terms of outside runs when Tim Crowder gets healthy enough to break the starting lineup, because he is a strong run defending end (better than Engelberger and definitely better than Doom in that area). We have started to see Moss make some plays against the run which is unexpected, but I still think the key in that area, so far as the ends are concerned, will be the addition of Crowder. He is supposed to suit up finally for the JAX game, although I dont think he'll be quite 100 percent and prolly wont be a starter for a few more games, but he'll help.

[maher_tyler]

I agree SoCal on both points...i hope we can turn those FG's into TD's..i'd like to see a blow out win like 38-10 or something..i think we can do it f we can fix those 2 areas.

[broncocalijohn]

Originally Posted by lazarus4444

I'd rather have a hard schedule than an easy one.

yes because it is always better to win those "moral" voctories than to make the playoffs. Who do you think we are, The Colts? We are a 10-6 team before the season and 10-6 still. I will take the Sisters of Mercy for the Blind if it gets us to the playoffs. I want the easiest path to the promise land. What are you, some hard A$$?

[maher_tyler]

Originally Posted by broncocalijohn

yes because it is always better to win those "moral" voctories than to make the playoffs. Who do you think we are, The Colts? We are a 10-6 team before the season and 10-6 still. I will take the Sisters of Mercy for the Blind if it gets us to the playoffs. I want the easiest path to the promise land. What are you, some hard A$$?

i think what he was trying to say is that eventually the crappy teams will start winning and the good teams will start losing making what looks like a hard schedual an easy one. Like the Lions and Texans so far!!

[BroncoBuff]

I agree with much of what SoCal said too ... the yards-points ratio seems more like a two-game oddity than serious problem so far. It's a better problem to have than the red zone problems we've had in the recent past.

Something Gannon said this week really made me excited about 'breaking tendencies' on offense this year - and I think it will help us score. He said Shanahan discussed a strategy to keep Travis Henry fresh for the long haul this season by pulling him on third downs - nothing new there for Shanahan. But Selvin Young as that back makes 3rd and 5+yards far more interesting that our recent 3rd down backs normally have. Selvin definitely won't go down so easy like Tatum or Mike Bell did, and that opens up the playbook quite a bit. Plus Jay can throw from the pocket. So unlike the past few years when we had just 2 choices on 3rd and long: bootleg left or bootleg right .... now we have a wide-open playbook and I think we'll score more points in the long run because of it.

[BroncoBuff]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

I would too. And just so you know I'm not complaining. Just pointing out that the schedule doesn't always "work" like it's supposed to.

Good points and great thread ... the schedule looks a LOT different now. Tougher across the board.

As far as point #2 SoCal, I agree totally - DT play has been very lackluster. I've been watching Marcus Thomas and the DTs very closely the past 3 or 4 weeks, and despite my intense desire to see MT do well, he's quite disappointing and I don't see why he's playing so much. The only time he makes any difference is when he pursues running plays laterally - which he does pretty well. Problem is, that doesn't happen very often. He doesn't get any push and I have yet to see him intentionally double-teamed. Antwan Burton is a better player right now - he looked very strong Sunday (despite the fact Kevin Harlan called him 'Gordon' twice). He pushed Carlisle backward at least once - something I have yet to see Thomas do. I understand Bates doesn't want DTs to penetrate (although Big Money looked pretty 'John Randle-ish' on that safety, eh?), but I also don't think they want the DTs to stand still on single-teams, reaching up while jumping up and down like a kid trying to reach a cookie jar on a high shelf. MT does a lot of that on passing plays.

[broncogary]

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

That's a very good point, Khan. In just a couple weeks, the entire complexion of the schedule can change significantly. All the more reason to make sure we take advantage of the games where we definitely should win, such as this week vs. Jacksonville.

Right now, there are two things holding this team back. I believe if we can make significant improvements in one of the two (and I am fairly certain we will in one, not sure about the other though), then we have a very good chance to get into the playoffs even with the schedule looking alot more daunting. The two issues are ofcourse, translating the offensive dominance in terms of yardage into points. We started to do that this week in the first half, we were rolling down the field and scoring points, Marshall's TD got us up to 24 by the early 3rd quarter, and then ofcourse it was called back and that seemed to shake things up for the rest of the game. But we have now started to demonstrate the ability to make yards=expected point totals from those yards. I would submit that it is basically impossible to keep racking up 400+ yardage games without starting to really score, its just a very weird oddity, 4 out of 5 times you are in the 400s, you are probably in at least the high twenties and probably the early 30s. So I am not concerned about it that much. The odds of probability simply have to break through at some point. The key is maintaining the level of superior gameplanning and play selection that has allowed us to move up and down the field. We are obviously putting in some new wrinkles this year, it is now a matter of seeing how fast (if at all), other teams began to spot tendencies and then prepare for them. You'll notice this week that Shanahan employed a number of tendency breakers, he can anticipate people starting to have enough plays on film to start to find some real tendencies in the 2007 scheme, so what did he do: He started running more on third on medium and third and long, a statistical rarity, sometimes it worked(S. Young run), sometimes it didn't, but the point is, he is trying to stay ahead of the game, he is breaking tendencies. Another thing you'll notice which he did as a tendency breaker is formationing and plays. We generally run similar plays but from a number of different formations. Against Oakland, we did not use very many formations at all, in fact, the dominant formation we used was an offset I scheme with Daniel Graham motioning in off short motion, I can't tell you how many times we ran that same formation with that same short motion, it must have been at least a dozen, probably more, yet this time we ran several different plays out of just a few formations. So we are really mixing alot of things up. This is the way to stay ahead of the game. We are now making it more difficult to scout based on formationing. These are just a few of the reasons why, I think, Shanny will continue to have a powerful offense, yardage wise, but we now must turn it into points, and I think we will.

The other big problem is the run defense. The run defense is something that is going to be difficult to fix for a number of reasons: a) We are putting alot of pressure on DTs to get double teamed, so that the linebackers can freely attack the ballcarrier, when they (DTs) really are not guys who have the talent to command a double team (with the exception, at times, of Sam Adams), so if they are going to be able to do their job, they'll have to have truly superior technique and leverage, because, unless and until Thomas becomes a real force (which is starting to happen, albeit slowly, which is to be expected), the talent isnt there to FORCE double teams, b) Bates has a strong preference for 7 man fronts over 8 man fronts, the coverages he likes need to be run out of 2 safety high defenses (such as Quarters coverage for example, a popular coverage which combines elements of man to man coverage with matchup zone principles, it is one of the staples of the Jimmy Johnson style defense that Bates employs), so it will not be as simple as bringing another guy (Lynch) into the box to help, without disrupting the overall scheme. We have, on occasion, so far done that, but the large majority of the time we have stuck with the 7 man front because that is what the scheme is centered around. I do think we will see some improvement in terms of outside runs when Tim Crowder gets healthy enough to break the starting lineup, because he is a strong run defending end (better than Engelberger and definitely better than Doom in that area). We have started to see Moss make some plays against the run which is unexpected, but I still think the key in that area, so far as the ends are concerned, will be the addition of Crowder. He is supposed to suit up finally for the JAX game, although I dont think he'll be quite 100 percent and prolly wont be a starter for a few more games, but he'll help.

Is there a Cliff's Notes available for this?

[TotallyScrewed]

I was just looking at this yesterday thinking...wow these teams look better right now and wow how the Chiefs have fallen. I agree with all of your assessments Kaylore except winning the bye-week.

Please, please don't come out flat after the bye!!!

The other thing to remember is that how strong teams look changes through out the year.

[maher_tyler]

Originally Posted by TotallyScrewed

I was just looking at this yesterday thinking...wow these teams look better right now and wow how the Chiefs have fallen. I agree with all of your assessments Kaylore except winning the bye-week.

Please, please don't come out flat after the bye!!!

The other thing to remember is that how strong teams look changes through out the year.

i agree...i think the game against indy will tell us where we are as a whole.

[Rock Chalk]

Man Im telling you, Indy can be had. They looked really good aainst the Saints, but then so did Tampa Bay. Against a better team (Tenn) they didnt look so good most of the game. I am telling you, if we even play a modicrum of decent defense instead of laying down like a bunch of Coyers, we can beat this team of softies. Sanders is a great player at safety but I noticed Tenn blocked him out of a lot of plays. We account for Sanders, we can run roughshod over their defense. We lock down Dallas Clark and their receivers probably wont stand a cahnce. Though Im sure manning has already perfected his double pump and Wayne his double move to score on Bly regularly.

We will beat Houston for the simple fact that we are Denver Original Brand and they are Denver New Southern Brand.

[Rohirrim]

Good point, Khan. Now that we have seen these teams play a couple of games, the whole complexion of the schedule has changed (except for the Chefs ). If the Broncos can gel enough to make it through that and get to the playoffs, this season is a huge success.

[dbfan21]

Great posts by everyone really. I think we are starting to see the personality and abilities of this team. While our playbook has opened up immensely with Jay under center, I would not mind seeing a play-action pass bootleg on third and 5. With Jay's mobility, it opens up some additional options.

I also wouldn't mind seeing some screen passes against aggressive defenses (i.e. Jax) in obvious passing downs. The defense will be rushing hard (and possibly blitzing) and we can take advantage of that. Although Denver has not been a solid screen pass team in the recent past, it seemed that Shanahan worked on that more in the preseason.

[Smiling Assassin27]

it's not too early to start practicing your rant: if you wanna crown 'em, then CROWN their a$$...the bears are who we THOUGHT they were....

[Rohirrim]

Don't forget, the Colts had the #32 defense against the run last year (when they won the SB). So far, the Broncos have given up only one score on the ground.

[FISH]

Kaylore...SoCal...I always enjoy your comments and appraisals. Great stuff. I dont usually post but I would like to add one additional area for improvement that I think will dramatically improve our football team....Special Teams.

It is very un-Elam like to miss so many field goals. He doesnt look hurried (well...any more than any other kicker would) so I dont think thats affecting his kicking. The only change from last year to this year between the main 3 components (snapper-holder-kicker) is the holder. As its been said, Elam is the last to comment on his holder to the public but I think the lack of Plumbers holds are having an affect much like when Tom Rouen left. There was a period of adjustment. I think when and if that gets ironed out with Saurebrun we will see some improvement there. Those missed filed goals certainly would have alleviated pressure on our offense and we might not have seen the "heart attack" causing drives (though I am glad we proved we can do it). There are other weak areas in Special Teams but I think O'brian will eventually iron those out as attention to detail increases.

Once these fixes happen in unison with point production from the offense and improved DL play....we will be an extremely tough team.

Hopefully..this year.

Maybe Champ can hold for Elam

[Orange_Beard]

You really have to look week by week. One injury or "slump" can change the outllook at any time.

So far it looks like the Charges made a HUGE MISTAKE. Rivers got some time on the bench to learn the O, when he appears to have parts of it down, they change the system.
Norv looks like he has no idea how to use LT.

[broncofan2438]

Yea we cannot look at our schedule lightly

[skpac1001]

Originally Posted by Alec

Man Im telling you, Indy can be had. They looked really good aainst the Saints, but then so did Tampa Bay. Against a better team (Tenn) they didnt look so good most of the game. I am telling you, if we even play a modicrum of decent defense instead of laying down like a bunch of Coyers, we can beat this team of softies. Sanders is a great player at safety but I noticed Tenn blocked him out of a lot of plays. We account for Sanders, we can run roughshod over their defense. We lock down Dallas Clark and their receivers probably wont stand a cahnce. Though Im sure manning has already perfected his double pump and Wayne his double move to score on Bly regularly.

It does seem like our team matches up against them better then it has before (at least on paper it does), assuming our offense starts converting the yardage into scores. We are (potetially) alot more explosive and difficult to defend on offense and our strength on defense so far is pass defense, which is nice against manning. Better find a way to get more pressure without sellout blitz's though.

[ScottXray]

There are NO giimmes in the NFL.

Houston is going to turn into a rivalry game (Denver south) and Kubes has got the QB in place that can grasp the offense. They also are showing defensive improvement.

Jville is dangerous cause they NEED a road win.

KC is rivlary, no matter how bad they are...and we always have a tough game in KC.

Pitt, Minn, SD twice, Ind and all those other ROAD games in a row.

Our schedule is looking HARD.

Playoffs will be a reach unless this Offense gels quickly. We are Lucky to be 2-0...but we need MORE luck to get to 6-2 in the first half.
However, maybe THIS year we won't fade in the second half....it's essential if we want to make the playoffs this year.

Lots of questions.

[Beantown Bronco]

For every game that looked easy over the summer, but now looks difficult....think about this: we now have four games (2 against SD and 2 against KC) that look a little (if not a lot) more winnable now. I think overall the picture remains the same.

Specifically, after having watched everyone play twice, I believe that the Broncos should go 5-1 in the division now. A month or two ago, I would've said 3-3.....4-2 at best. So, if anything, while the non-division games may look tougher, I think a few of the division games that I had previously written off look a lot more winnable.

[TheChamp24]

Originally Posted by ScottXray

There are NO giimmes in the NFL.

Houston is going to turn into a rivalry game (Denver south) and Kubes has got the QB in place that can grasp the offense. They also are showing defensive improvement.

Jville is dangerous cause they NEED a road win.

KC is rivlary, no matter how bad they are...and we always have a tough game in KC.

Pitt, Minn, SD twice, Ind and all those other ROAD games in a row.

Our schedule is looking HARD.

Playoffs will be a reach unless this Offense gels quickly. We are Lucky to be 2-0...but we need MORE luck to get to 6-2 in the first half.
However, maybe THIS year we won't fade in the second half....it's essential if we want to make the playoffs this year.

Lots of questions.

Offense is the least of my concerns. We've put up 900+ yards of offense. The points will come. The playoffs might not happen if the run defense continues to play like that...