Dems could lose Congress thanks to Hillary - The Orange Mane

broncos_mtnman · 08-13-2007, 01:16 AM

Democrats Weigh Effect of Hillary Clinton Down the Ballot
Sunday, August 12, 2007

Associated Press

WASHINGTON — Looking past the presidential nomination fight, Democratic leaders quietly fret that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at the top of their 2008 ticket could hurt candidates at the bottom.

They say the former first lady may be too polarizing for much of the country. She could jeopardize the party's standing with independent voters and give Republicans who otherwise might stay home on Election Day a reason to vote, they worry.

In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates, consultants and party chairs from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and state races.

"I'm not sure it would be fatal in Indiana, but she would be a drag" on many candidates, said Democratic state Rep. Dave Crooks of Washington, Ind.

Unlike Crooks, most Democratic leaders agreed to talk frankly about Clinton's political coattails only if they remained anonymous, fearing reprisals from the New York senator's campaign. They all expressed admiration for Clinton, and some said they would publicly support her fierce fight for the nomination — despite privately held fears.

The chairman of a Midwest state party called Clinton a nightmare for congressional and state legislative candidates.

A Democratic congressman from the West, locked in a close re-election fight, said Clinton is the Democratic candidate most likely to cost him his seat.

A strategist with close ties to leaders in Congress said Democratic Senate candidates in competitive races would be strongly urged to distance themselves from Clinton.

"The argument with Hillary right now in some of these red states is she's so damn unpopular," said Andy Arnold, chairman of the Greenville, S.C., Democratic Party. "I think Hillary is someone who could drive folks on the other side out to vote who otherwise wouldn't."

"Republicans are upset with their candidates," Arnold added, "but she will make up for that by essentially scaring folks to the polls."

In national surveys, Clinton's lead over chief rival Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has widened. Her advantage is much narrower where it counts most — in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire. In matchups against potential GOP presidential candidates, Clinton leads or is tied.

The Clinton campaign points to those figures to make a case for her electability in a constant stream of e-mails, letters and phone calls to jittery Democrats across the country. A key to their strategy is to give Clinton's candidacy a sense of inevitability despite her negative ratings, which aides insist will go down.

"All the negatives on her are out," said Clinton's pollster and strategist Mark Penn. "There is a phenomena with Hillary, because she is the front-runner and because she's been battling Republicans for so long, her unfavorability (rating) looks higher than what they will eventually be after the nomination and through the general election."

What the Clinton campaign doesn't say is that her edge over potential Republican candidates is much smaller than it should be, given the wide lead the Democratic Party holds over the GOP in generic polling.

The problem is her political baggage: A whopping 49 percent of the public says they have an unfavorable view of Clinton compared to 47 percent who say they hold her in high regard, according to a Gallup Poll survey Aug. 3-5.

Her negative ratings are higher than those of her husband, former President Clinton, former President George H.W. Bush and 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry at the end of their campaigns.

A candidate's unfavorability scores almost always climb during campaigns. If the pattern holds, Clinton has a historically high hurdle to overcome.

"For Hillary, who has been on the scene for so long and has had perception of her so ground in ... there's no question it will be really hard for her to change perceptions," said Democratic pollster David Eichenbaum, who represents moderate Democrats in GOP-leaning states.

Her baggage is heaviest in those states. Private polling conducted in Colorado, for example, shows that Clinton's negative rating is 16 percentage points higher than her favorability score.

Colorado is a state Democrats hope to win in the 2008 presidential race. It also has an open Senate seat, with the Republican incumbent opting not to seek another term and Democrats targeting it.

Obama has much lower unfavorability ratings than Clinton, though Democrats say he may have his own problem — that of race. It's hard to measure the impact of being the first party to put a black at the top of the ticket, Democratic leaders said.

Some Democrats hold out hope that Clinton can turn things around.

"She's got a tough road to hoe because people have formed opinions of her," said Rep. Tim Mahoney, a freshman Democrat from Florida. "But I can and will tell you that when I see Hillary get out there with the public, she changes people's minds. She's not the stereotype that people know her to be."

In Indiana, where three freshman Democratic congressmen are fighting to retain their seats, Crooks said Clinton would be a burden in districts like his full of "gun-toting, bible-carrying, God-loving, church-attending" voters.

"She is just so polarizing," the state lawmaker said. Clinton would drag any candidate down 3 or 4 percentage points, he said.

"I'm one of these Democrats who has some legitimate reservations, because the Clintons have in the past invigorated the Republican base," said Carrie Webster, a leader in the West Virginia state House who served as executive director of the state party when Bill Clinton won the 1992 West Virginia primary.

"But the fact that so many prominent Democratic males are getting behind her at this early point makes me a little more confident that she could overcome some of the more obvious hurdles," she said.

Nebraska party chairman Matt Connealy said he believes Democratic candidates will be able to avoid a Clinton backlash.

"I probably would have given you a different answer a month ago," he said, "and maybe will give you a different answer a month from now."

defenseman · 08-13-2007, 09:10 AM

Nice read...dman

Crushaholic · 08-13-2007, 09:27 AM

I've said this before. The Democrats would have a better chance of winning by nominating Obama or someone else besides Hillary. The country knows where she stands on the issues and she is a polarizing figure.

Rohirrim · 08-13-2007, 09:55 AM

Like Maher said, "Bush Lite."

Spider · 08-13-2007, 10:22 AM

hmmmmmm so what happened to Bin Laden being the boogie man ?
Hillary = the rights new boogie man .err woman .....

TailgateNut · 08-13-2007, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by §Pide®

hmmmmmm so what happened to Bin Laden being the boogie man ?
Hillary = the rights new boogie man .err woman .....

Bin Laden was never Bush's "boogie man", he was his "excuse"!

TailgateNut · 08-13-2007, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by §Pide®

hmmmmmm so what happened to Bin Laden being the boogie man ?
Hillary = the rights new boogie man .err woman .....

Hillary IS Dmans "boogie woman"!

Spider · 08-13-2007, 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TailgateNut

Hillary IS Dmans "boogie woman"!

Dman gets his groove on to Hillary .......... interesting ........ No wonder he hates Bill Clinton with a passion ...... Bill be bangin his woman

TailgateNut · 08-13-2007, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by §Pide®

Dman gets his groove on to Hillary .......... interesting ........ No wonder he hates Bill Clinton with a passion ...... Bill be bangin his woman

I would be the end of the "ol man" if she were to get elected. Not that she has the inside track on my vote, but to see Dman's reaction would be "priceless".

He hates her as much as I hate Dumbya!

defenseman · 08-13-2007, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TailgateNut

I would be the end of the "ol man" if she were to get elected. Not that she has the inside track on my vote, but to see Dman's reaction would be "priceless".

He hates her as much as I hate Dumbya!

Hate her? Nah. Trust her? Nah. Her elected? Nah. ..........dman

TailgateNut · 08-13-2007, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by defenseman

Hate her? Nah. Trust her? Nah. Her elected? Nah. ..........dman

Right!!!

Bronco Bob · 08-13-2007, 11:13 AM

The irony for dman is Hillary is the most right wing of all the Dems running.
If he hates the things Hillary would do, he'd have heart failure at the
kinds of things Obama or Edwards would do. Even Giuliani isn't really that
much further to the right than Hillary.

TailgateNut · 08-13-2007, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco Bob

The irony for dman is Hillary is the most right wing of all the Dems running.
If he hates the things Hillary would do, he'd have heart failure at the
kinds of things Obama or Edwards would do. Even Giuliani isn't really that
much further to the right than Hillary.

I think he's just jealous that WJC got a BJ, and due to "association" Billary is also guilty.

Bronco Bob · 08-13-2007, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TailgateNut

I think he's just jealous that WJC got a BJ, and due to "association" Billary is also guilty.

Bill Clinton also got elected because he was further to the right than most the other Democrats.

I think Hillary's negatives are much ado about nothing. As the campaign
goes on I suspect they will go down. Obama's and Giuliani's negatives are
only a few points lower than Hillary's, for example. She had high negatives
going into the Senate race, but she managed to win over even conservative
Republican upper New York state, which is 45% of the vote in New York state,
and carried almost every single county in New York state in the 2006 election.

defenseman · 08-13-2007, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco Bob

Bill Clinton also got elected because he was further to the right than most the other Democrats.

I think Hillary's negatives are much ado about nothing. As the campaign
goes on I suspect they will go down. Obama's and Giuliani's negatives are
only a few points lower than Hillary's, for example. She had high negatives
going into the Senate race, but she managed to win over even conservative
Republican upper New York state, which is 45% of the vote in New York state,
and carried almost every single county in New York state in the 2006 election.

We will see soon enough. the upside for me, I'll be retired before she ever puts pen to paper wrt the military. Though, my sons will have to deal with her if she were elected. Well, I made it through WJC, they'll survive her I would think if it comes to that...dman

Bronco Bob · 08-13-2007, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by defenseman

We will see soon enough. the upside for me, I'll be retired before she ever puts pen to paper wrt the military. Though, my sons will have to deal with her if she were elected. Well, I made it through WJC, they'll survive her I would think if it comes to that...dman

Even in regards to the military, Hillary is the most pro-military of the Dem candidates and has the backing of several high level officers.

[ She worked hard to get a seat on the powerful Armed Services Committee, which deals with most defense issues. She has advocated for better health benefits and higher pay for the military, and even free postage for families to mail packages to loved ones serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. And she has sought private briefings with military leaders and has grown friendly with several high-profile retired generals.

"My former colleagues, retired flag officers, whom I've set up to meet with her, come back and say, 'Wow, she listens to what we have to say more than any other senator,' " said Donald L. Kerrick, a retired general and former deputy national security adviser to President Clinton. Kerrick helps organize meetings of retired officers to advise Hillary Clinton's campaign.

In addition to working with fellow Democrats to pressure the Bush administration to end the war in Iraq, Clinton has taken stands less popular with liberals, cosponsoring a bill to expand the Army by 100,000 soldiers and supporting new spending on missile defense. She has traveled to Iraq and Afghanistan three times to meet the troops and talk to commanders and Iraqi leaders.

"She engaged in a very serious effort to educate herself on national security matters," said Andrew J. Bacevich, a Boston University international relations professor and Vietnam veteran. "She has prepared herself very conscientiously for the office." ]

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/ar...linton_effort/

broncos_mtnman · 08-13-2007, 04:00 PM

Some of you have missed the point.

Sure Hillary has negatives, that's a given and could cost the Dems the White House in '08.

The interesting part of this article, is that DEMOCRATS are saying she will cost them seats in the Congress.

Imagine losing both your majorities in the Congress, along with failing to win the WH after an unpopular Republican President.

All I can say is, GO HILLARY!!

defenseman · 08-13-2007, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco Bob

Even in regards to the military, Hillary is the most pro-military of the Dem candidates and has the backing of several high level officers.

[ She worked hard to get a seat on the powerful Armed Services Committee, which deals with most defense issues. She has advocated for better health benefits and higher pay for the military, and even free postage for families to mail packages to loved ones serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. And she has sought private briefings with military leaders and has grown friendly with several high-profile retired generals.

"My former colleagues, retired flag officers, whom I've set up to meet with her, come back and say, 'Wow, she listens to what we have to say more than any other senator,' " said Donald L. Kerrick, a retired general and former deputy national security adviser to President Clinton. Kerrick helps organize meetings of retired officers to advise Hillary Clinton's campaign.

In addition to working with fellow Democrats to pressure the Bush administration to end the war in Iraq, Clinton has taken stands less popular with liberals, cosponsoring a bill to expand the Army by 100,000 soldiers and supporting new spending on missile defense. She has traveled to Iraq and Afghanistan three times to meet the troops and talk to commanders and Iraqi leaders.

"She engaged in a very serious effort to educate herself on national security matters," said Andrew J. Bacevich, a Boston University international relations professor and Vietnam veteran. "She has prepared herself very conscientiously for the office." ]

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/ar...linton_effort/

Good stuff Bronco Bob. I will do some additional homework on hillary. I was not aware of this side of her...dman

* I appreciate your response without the mud slinging. perhaps you've started a new and unique standard, called a 'civil response'. Good job.

Bronco Bob · 08-13-2007, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by defenseman

Good stuff Bronco Bob. I will do some additional homework on hillary. I was not aware of this side of her...dman

* I appreciate your response without the mud slinging. perhaps you've started a new and unique standard, called a 'civil response'. Good job.

And thanks for reading the post and giving it a fair appraisal.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN · 08-13-2007, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by broncos_mtnman

Sure Hillary has negatives, that's a given and could cost the Dems the White House in '08.

Yet polls seem to indicate that, if the election were held today, Hillary would be the next POTUS.

Quote:

Originally Posted by broncos_mtnman

The interesting part of this article, is that DEMOCRATS are saying she will cost them seats in the Congress.

Just now discovering that Democrats don't march in lockstep like the Corrupt Old Party?

Quote:

Originally Posted by broncos_mtnman

Imagine losing both your majorities in the Congress...

Yeah, imagine....

....wait: that's exactly what just happened to your party.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN · 08-13-2007, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by broncos_mtnman

...along with failing to win the WH after an unpopular Republican President.

You're acknowledging that Vacation Boy is an unpopular president?

Let me guess: That's all Clinton's fault?

defenseman · 08-13-2007, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by L.A. BRONCOS FAN

You're acknowledging that Vacation Boy is an unpopular president?

Let me guess: That's all Clinton's fault?

I'm thinking he has brought most if not all of it on himself. He let me down especially on the border. Very sad...very sad indeed...dman

Spider · 08-14-2007, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by defenseman

Good stuff Bronco Bob. I will do some additional homework on hillary. I was not aware of this side of her...dman

* I appreciate your response without the mud slinging. perhaps you've started a new and unique standard, called a 'civil response'. Good job.

Mud slinging ? come on you get your freak on with pictures of Hillary ........

defenseman · 08-15-2007, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by §Pide®

Mud slinging ? come on you get your freak on with pictures of Hillary ........

I missed this one spide.....

I needed a chuckle this morning. A few days late but I am

.....thanks....dman

Spider · 08-15-2007, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by defenseman

I missed this one spide.....

I needed a chuckle this morning. A few days late but I am

.....thanks....dman

enjoy http://www.miniclip.com/games/dancing-hillary/en/

08-13-2007, 01:16 AM	#1
broncos_mtnman Politically Incorrect Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Frisco, CO Posts: 115	Dems could lose Congress thanks to Hillary Democrats Weigh Effect of Hillary Clinton Down the Ballot Sunday, August 12, 2007 Associated Press WASHINGTON — Looking past the presidential nomination fight, Democratic leaders quietly fret that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at the top of their 2008 ticket could hurt candidates at the bottom. They say the former first lady may be too polarizing for much of the country. She could jeopardize the party's standing with independent voters and give Republicans who otherwise might stay home on Election Day a reason to vote, they worry. In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates, consultants and party chairs from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and state races. "I'm not sure it would be fatal in Indiana, but she would be a drag" on many candidates, said Democratic state Rep. Dave Crooks of Washington, Ind. Unlike Crooks, most Democratic leaders agreed to talk frankly about Clinton's political coattails only if they remained anonymous, fearing reprisals from the New York senator's campaign. They all expressed admiration for Clinton, and some said they would publicly support her fierce fight for the nomination — despite privately held fears. The chairman of a Midwest state party called Clinton a nightmare for congressional and state legislative candidates. A Democratic congressman from the West, locked in a close re-election fight, said Clinton is the Democratic candidate most likely to cost him his seat. A strategist with close ties to leaders in Congress said Democratic Senate candidates in competitive races would be strongly urged to distance themselves from Clinton. "The argument with Hillary right now in some of these red states is she's so damn unpopular," said Andy Arnold, chairman of the Greenville, S.C., Democratic Party. "I think Hillary is someone who could drive folks on the other side out to vote who otherwise wouldn't." "Republicans are upset with their candidates," Arnold added, "but she will make up for that by essentially scaring folks to the polls." In national surveys, Clinton's lead over chief rival Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has widened. Her advantage is much narrower where it counts most — in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire. In matchups against potential GOP presidential candidates, Clinton leads or is tied. The Clinton campaign points to those figures to make a case for her electability in a constant stream of e-mails, letters and phone calls to jittery Democrats across the country. A key to their strategy is to give Clinton's candidacy a sense of inevitability despite her negative ratings, which aides insist will go down. "All the negatives on her are out," said Clinton's pollster and strategist Mark Penn. "There is a phenomena with Hillary, because she is the front-runner and because she's been battling Republicans for so long, her unfavorability (rating) looks higher than what they will eventually be after the nomination and through the general election." What the Clinton campaign doesn't say is that her edge over potential Republican candidates is much smaller than it should be, given the wide lead the Democratic Party holds over the GOP in generic polling. The problem is her political baggage: A whopping 49 percent of the public says they have an unfavorable view of Clinton compared to 47 percent who say they hold her in high regard, according to a Gallup Poll survey Aug. 3-5. Her negative ratings are higher than those of her husband, former President Clinton, former President George H.W. Bush and 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry at the end of their campaigns. A candidate's unfavorability scores almost always climb during campaigns. If the pattern holds, Clinton has a historically high hurdle to overcome. "For Hillary, who has been on the scene for so long and has had perception of her so ground in ... there's no question it will be really hard for her to change perceptions," said Democratic pollster David Eichenbaum, who represents moderate Democrats in GOP-leaning states. Her baggage is heaviest in those states. Private polling conducted in Colorado, for example, shows that Clinton's negative rating is 16 percentage points higher than her favorability score. Colorado is a state Democrats hope to win in the 2008 presidential race. It also has an open Senate seat, with the Republican incumbent opting not to seek another term and Democrats targeting it. Obama has much lower unfavorability ratings than Clinton, though Democrats say he may have his own problem — that of race. It's hard to measure the impact of being the first party to put a black at the top of the ticket, Democratic leaders said. Some Democrats hold out hope that Clinton can turn things around. "She's got a tough road to hoe because people have formed opinions of her," said Rep. Tim Mahoney, a freshman Democrat from Florida. "But I can and will tell you that when I see Hillary get out there with the public, she changes people's minds. She's not the stereotype that people know her to be." In Indiana, where three freshman Democratic congressmen are fighting to retain their seats, Crooks said Clinton would be a burden in districts like his full of "gun-toting, bible-carrying, God-loving, church-attending" voters. "She is just so polarizing," the state lawmaker said. Clinton would drag any candidate down 3 or 4 percentage points, he said. "I'm one of these Democrats who has some legitimate reservations, because the Clintons have in the past invigorated the Republican base," said Carrie Webster, a leader in the West Virginia state House who served as executive director of the state party when Bill Clinton won the 1992 West Virginia primary. "But the fact that so many prominent Democratic males are getting behind her at this early point makes me a little more confident that she could overcome some of the more obvious hurdles," she said. Nebraska party chairman Matt Connealy said he believes Democratic candidates will be able to avoid a Clinton backlash. "I probably would have given you a different answer a month ago," he said, "and maybe will give you a different answer a month from now."

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08-13-2007, 09:10 AM	#2
defenseman Ring of Famer 2007 record pred. (7-9) Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 9,232	Nice read...dman

08-13-2007, 09:27 AM	#3
Crushaholic Armchair Poster Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Topeka, KS Posts: 22,043	I've said this before. The Democrats would have a better chance of winning by nominating Obama or someone else besides Hillary. The country knows where she stands on the issues and she is a polarizing figure.

08-13-2007, 09:55 AM	#4
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,842	Like Maher said, "Bush Lite."

08-13-2007, 10:22 AM	#5
Spider Mr Diplomacy I survived Tebow Mania at the Mane Join Date: May 2001 Location: Elway was just an arm =MacGruder Posts: 84,438 Adopt-a-Bronco: Von Miller	hmmmmmm so what happened to Bin Laden being the boogie man ? Hillary = the rights new boogie man .err woman .....

08-13-2007, 11:13 AM	#12
Bronco Bob Tastee Freeze Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 9,464 Adopt-a-Bronco: Champ Bailey	The irony for dman is Hillary is the most right wing of all the Dems running. If he hates the things Hillary would do, he'd have heart failure at the kinds of things Obama or Edwards would do. Even Giuliani isn't really that much further to the right than Hillary.

08-13-2007, 04:00 PM	#17
broncos_mtnman Politically Incorrect Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Frisco, CO Posts: 115	Some of you have missed the point. Sure Hillary has negatives, that's a given and could cost the Dems the White House in '08. The interesting part of this article, is that DEMOCRATS are saying she will cost them seats in the Congress. Imagine losing both your majorities in the Congress, along with failing to win the WH after an unpopular Republican President. All I can say is, GO HILLARY!!