ESPN- Broncos will stay grounded - The Orange Mane

NYC Bronco · 07-13-2007, 12:18 PM

Henry a great fit in Denver
Pasquarelli

By Len Pasquarelli
ESPN.com
(Archive)

Updated: July 13, 2007

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Over the past dozen seasons of Denver Broncos franchise history, there have pretty much been two constants: Coach Mike Shanahan, and a running offense that never dropped out of the top 12 in the league's statistical rankings.

In fact, not once during Shanahan's tenure in the Rocky Mountains has the Denver rushing game ever ranked statistically below the club's passing attack.

As is the case with many noted offensive schemers, Shanahan is often mischaracterized as a mad scientist who spends nearly every waking minute doodling away at the dry-erase board, conjuring up frighteningly squiggly pass patterns.

But the numbers, which show a Broncos' team that has ranked among the top 10 in overall offense during Shanahan's time in Denver, certainly don't fit that perception.

Indeed, the Broncos' passing attack has been out of the top 10 six times since Shanahan became the coach in 1995. Four times over the past six seasons, and thrice in the last four years, Denver has been 18th or lower in passing statistics. Last year, the Broncos were 25th, the worst-ever under Shanahan, and a rating that prompted the benching of quarterback Jake Plummer and his subsequent departure. On the flip side, nine times under the stewardship of Shanahan, the Denver rushing attack has rated among the league's top five, and five times it's been in the top three.

There have even been four seasons, including three of the last four years, in which the Broncos logged more rushing than passing plays. In the only season they didn't during that stretch, 2004, the Broncos had only two more passing plays than rushing plays.

So, what do all of those numbers translate into for the 2007 season for the Broncos' offense, which ranked 21st overall in the league in 2006? Given some of the news that emanated from the Denver minicamp this week, and the fact the Broncos' No. 1 quarterback, Jay Cutler, enters 2007 with just five career starts, expect the emphasis on the running game to continue for another year.

"Even from the outside looking in, if you've been around the league and you look at the offense here, you definitely think run first and foremost," said tailback Travis Henry, the eight-year veteran signed away from the Tennessee Titans as an unrestricted free agent, and likely to become the Broncos' fifth different leading rusher in five years. "It's what this [offense] is about, its calling card. I mean, that isn't just suddenly going to change overnight, you know?"

If things do change, which is highly unlikely, it won't necessarily be reflective of Cutler's relative lack of experience.

The last time Shanahan went into a season with such a callow and untested quarterback as his starter -- in 1999, with Brian Griese, who had zero regular-season starts on his résumé at the outset of the year -- the Denver offense actually went the other way. The offensive split got lopsided toward the pass, with Denver throwing the ball on 55.8 percent of its snaps, one of the most unbalanced seasons of Shanahan's long tour with the franchise. The Broncos had 123 more pass plays than running plays that season. The team's average in the 11 other years of Shanahan's tenure is a differential of only 40.5 more pass plays than run plays.

So it's not as if Shanahan hasn't, in the past, permitted a young quarterback to cut it loose. And last year, in Cutler's starts, the running-game ratio (51.6 percent) wasn't demonstrably increased over what it was (49.8 percent) in the 11 contests that Plummer started. Plus, what the Broncos' minicamp revealed is that there might be even more concerns about the players who are supposed to be catching the ball for the Broncos in 2007 than concerns over the youngster who will be throwing it.

There is still an entire summer and four preseason games to set the depth chart, and eight weeks before Denver opens the season at Buffalo on Sept. 9. But for now at least, it appears their depth chart is deficient, particularly at wide receiver. For all of the attention the Broncos have paid their defense, adding superb cornerback Dre' Bly and some bigger bodies upfront, their offseason acquisition of most consequence is inarguably Henry, the next guy up in the long lineage of 1,000-yard rushers in Denver.

For most of Shanahan's tenure, the problem has been the absence of a reliable third wide receiver. In the past 12 seasons, the No. 3 wide receivers in Denver averaged an anemic 19.4 catches per year, a remarkably puny amount, even in a passing game that featured the tight end so ambitiously. But this season, the question marks at wide receiver could trickle even below the No. 3 spot.

With the lengthy recovery of stalwart Rod Smith, who continues to rehabilitate from Feb. 23 surgery to his left hip and who acknowledged this week he might not be ready for the start of camp, there could be concerns about the viability of the starter opposite Javon Walker in the lineup.

"It's all about patience right now," noted the remarkably durable Smith, a former undrafted college free agent who has carved out a brilliant 12-year career that has included two Super Bowl rings and three Pro Bowl appearances. "If I can't do it, I'm not going to go out there and try to do it."

But even before the hip operation, in which surgeons addressed a torn labrum, ligament damage and general degeneration, there were some signs that Smith, 37, might not be able to do it at the same levels he reached earlier in his career. In his first nine seasons as a starter, Smith averaged 13.5 yards per catch, 14.6 reception of 20 yards or more and 2.1 catches of 40-plus yards. In 2006, his average per catch plummeted to a career-worst 9.8 yards, with one reception of 20 yards, and none longer.

Still, with 52 receptions for 512 yards and three touchdowns in 2006, Smith's numbers are glittering compared to those rung up by the group of receivers who would challenge for his starting job if he isn't ready for the beginning of the season. Without a complementary wide receiver, Walker is going to face a lot of double-teams and secondaries that consistently roll toward him.

Consider this bunch: Second-year veteran Brandon Marshall had 20 catches for the Broncos as the No. 3 wideout in 2006, but has struggled with a left thigh injury much of the spring and summer. Brandon Stokley, signed from Indianapolis as an unrestricted free agent, is one of the NFL's premier slot receivers when healthy. But Stokley is trying to come back from a torn Achilles. In 2004, Stokley had 68 catches for 1,077 yards and 10 touchdowns. In his seven other seasons, however, he averaged just 18.7 receptions, and has only 49 grabs since his big 2004 performance. David Kircus has totaled 15 receptions in three seasons. Quincy Morgan, another free agent addition, averaged 38.6 receptions his first four seasons in the league, but has only nine catches the past two years. David Terrell, a first-round choice of the Chicago Bears in 2001, has played in one regular-season game the past two years.

Matched against such a dubious collection, even on just one good leg, Smith looks pretty good. But probably not nearly as good as Henry, a classic, one-cut runner whose style is a terrific fit with Denver's traditional zone-blocking scheme, will look to Shanahan and to Cutler when they are searching for a safety net.

The tailbacks certainly aren't a constant in Denver, as each of the last four players to lead the franchise in rushing yards -- Clinton Portis (2003), Reuben Droughns (2004), Mike Anderson (2005) and Tatum Bell (2006) -- was traded or released the following spring. The running game and the commitment to it, though, are unwavering.

And almost certainly will be again in 2007.

So while the Broncos begin a new chapter of their history in 2007, with Cutler opening the year as the starter, it's clear that the Denver offense will be reading from the same playbook it always has since Shanahan arrived.

Len Pasquarelli is a senior writer with ESPN.com.

Garcia Bronco · 07-13-2007, 12:20 PM

epicSocialism4tw · 07-13-2007, 12:25 PM

That just might be the best piece Pasquarelli has ever written. He actually contributed a legit, fact-based perspective to the collective Bronco consciousness.

DenverBrit · 07-13-2007, 12:32 PM

It's amazing how much some writers obsess about the Bronco's lack of a '3rd WR.' How many teams do have an effective 3rd WR?
Smith, Eddie and Sharpe were enough for back-to-back SBs.
SD and KC barely have one WR....between them, yet do we ever read about their lack of a '2nd WR', let alone a 3rd?

telluride · 07-13-2007, 01:27 PM

Well, our WR corps is by far the biggest concern on this team. We're basically one and a mess of questions. And he's right: Javon's going to see double teams all year.

TerrElway · 07-13-2007, 01:36 PM

Quote:

The last time Shanahan went into a season with such a callow and untested quarterback as his starter -- in 1999, with Brian Griese, who had zero regular-season starts on his résumé at the outset of the year -- the Denver offense actually went the other way. The offensive split got lopsided toward the pass, with Denver throwing the ball on 55.8 percent of its snaps, one of the most unbalanced seasons of Shanahan's long tour with the franchise. The Broncos had 123 more pass plays than running plays that season. The team's average in the 11 other years of Shanahan's tenure is a differential of only 40.5 more pass plays than run plays.

That's misleading. TD blew out his knee early in that season, they played from behind a lot. They HAD to throw the ball more.

Popcorn Sutton · 07-13-2007, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by telluride

Well, our WR corps is by far the biggest concern on this team. We're basically one and a mess of questions. And he's right: Javon's going to see double teams all year.

That's fine... double Javon and we'll roll out the 2 tight end set with Graham and Scheff... toss in a little Marshall on the other side and somebody is bound to break free.

SportinOne · 07-13-2007, 02:08 PM

Not too worried about receiver here. Good quarterbacks make good receivers, not the other way around. Just ask Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell. Better yet, ask Tom Brady.

Paladin · 07-13-2007, 02:16 PM

While others may quiver at the thought that Javon will be double teamed, I'd bet Shanahan is just all atwitter over that prospect. It's why he got Graham, and why Henry will run more. It's why Shaeffer is there. Cutler can go long or short, and I would even bet a boot and a a run-pass option will be in the book as well. I do not think the O will be shut down by anyone for any extended period of time.

While there is so much emphasis on the O, I can confidently predict that the Denver D will be in the top 10, maybe the top six or so, of the D's in the league. Not the Conference, the league. Given that combination, it is easy to look forward to an exciting and rewarding season......

And I would predict that Javon will still get more than 12 TDs this year......

That One Guy · 07-13-2007, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheChamp

Not too worried about receiver here. Good quarterbacks make good receivers, not the other way around. Just ask Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell. Better yet, ask Tom Brady.

And if you can't get them on the line, you can try to get ahold of any of the schmucks that Brees was throwing to down in NO last year. Horn was taking the year off and Brees made a bunch of nobodies look all pro.

NYBronco · 07-13-2007, 02:49 PM

No mention of the TE's in the article. I think our TE's situation is nearly as good as a 3rd WR or it will at least bring forward the 3rd WR.

rubaiyat · 07-13-2007, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DenverBrit

It's amazing how much some writers obsess about the Bronco's lack of a '3rd WR.' How many teams do have an effective 3rd WR?
Smith, Eddie and Sharpe were enough for back-to-back SBs.
SD and KC barely have one WR....between them, yet do we ever read about their lack of a '2nd WR', let alone a 3rd?

In all honesty, who is picking KC for anything?

And SD has Gates and LT.

Not defending the unwarranted concern, but unless we also have video game-like producers like those two I think comparing our offense to SD's right now doesn't make sense.

Ron Mexico · 07-13-2007, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubaiyat

In all honesty, who is picking KC for anything?

And SD has Gates and LT.

Not defending the unwarranted concern, but unless we also have video game-like producers like those two I think comparing our offense to SD's right now doesn't make sense.

Give it a year. Do we have superstars - probably not. Offensive production - I think so. Graham/Scheffler and Henry should all produce good numbers in the Broncos system.

Concerning the article and WR depth, a healthy Marshall and Stokely as WR #3 is a great line-up. Can Marshall get and stay healthy is the question. He looked great during Cutler's starts last year.

footstepsfrom#27 · 07-13-2007, 08:12 PM

Yeah...it's early July and Marshall's got a thigh bruise. I guess he's done then.

bdv · 07-13-2007, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by telluride

Well, our WR corps is by far the biggest concern on this team.

IMO it's our LB, then S, then OL...

Quote:

We're basically one and a mess of questions. And he's right: Javon's going to see double teams all year.

Those are some pretty good "questions" to have. I see a healthy amount of upside at WR/TE, e.g. Marshall, Hixon, Scheffler.

07-13-2007, 12:18 PM	#1
NYC Bronco Solid Starter New to the Forum Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 150 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	ESPN- Broncos will stay grounded Henry a great fit in Denver Pasquarelli By Len Pasquarelli ESPN.com (Archive) Updated: July 13, 2007 * Comment * Email * Print Over the past dozen seasons of Denver Broncos franchise history, there have pretty much been two constants: Coach Mike Shanahan, and a running offense that never dropped out of the top 12 in the league's statistical rankings. In fact, not once during Shanahan's tenure in the Rocky Mountains has the Denver rushing game ever ranked statistically below the club's passing attack. As is the case with many noted offensive schemers, Shanahan is often mischaracterized as a mad scientist who spends nearly every waking minute doodling away at the dry-erase board, conjuring up frighteningly squiggly pass patterns. But the numbers, which show a Broncos' team that has ranked among the top 10 in overall offense during Shanahan's time in Denver, certainly don't fit that perception. Indeed, the Broncos' passing attack has been out of the top 10 six times since Shanahan became the coach in 1995. Four times over the past six seasons, and thrice in the last four years, Denver has been 18th or lower in passing statistics. Last year, the Broncos were 25th, the worst-ever under Shanahan, and a rating that prompted the benching of quarterback Jake Plummer and his subsequent departure. On the flip side, nine times under the stewardship of Shanahan, the Denver rushing attack has rated among the league's top five, and five times it's been in the top three. There have even been four seasons, including three of the last four years, in which the Broncos logged more rushing than passing plays. In the only season they didn't during that stretch, 2004, the Broncos had only two more passing plays than rushing plays. So, what do all of those numbers translate into for the 2007 season for the Broncos' offense, which ranked 21st overall in the league in 2006? Given some of the news that emanated from the Denver minicamp this week, and the fact the Broncos' No. 1 quarterback, Jay Cutler, enters 2007 with just five career starts, expect the emphasis on the running game to continue for another year. "Even from the outside looking in, if you've been around the league and you look at the offense here, you definitely think run first and foremost," said tailback Travis Henry, the eight-year veteran signed away from the Tennessee Titans as an unrestricted free agent, and likely to become the Broncos' fifth different leading rusher in five years. "It's what this [offense] is about, its calling card. I mean, that isn't just suddenly going to change overnight, you know?" If things do change, which is highly unlikely, it won't necessarily be reflective of Cutler's relative lack of experience. The last time Shanahan went into a season with such a callow and untested quarterback as his starter -- in 1999, with Brian Griese, who had zero regular-season starts on his résumé at the outset of the year -- the Denver offense actually went the other way. The offensive split got lopsided toward the pass, with Denver throwing the ball on 55.8 percent of its snaps, one of the most unbalanced seasons of Shanahan's long tour with the franchise. The Broncos had 123 more pass plays than running plays that season. The team's average in the 11 other years of Shanahan's tenure is a differential of only 40.5 more pass plays than run plays. So it's not as if Shanahan hasn't, in the past, permitted a young quarterback to cut it loose. And last year, in Cutler's starts, the running-game ratio (51.6 percent) wasn't demonstrably increased over what it was (49.8 percent) in the 11 contests that Plummer started. Plus, what the Broncos' minicamp revealed is that there might be even more concerns about the players who are supposed to be catching the ball for the Broncos in 2007 than concerns over the youngster who will be throwing it. There is still an entire summer and four preseason games to set the depth chart, and eight weeks before Denver opens the season at Buffalo on Sept. 9. But for now at least, it appears their depth chart is deficient, particularly at wide receiver. For all of the attention the Broncos have paid their defense, adding superb cornerback Dre' Bly and some bigger bodies upfront, their offseason acquisition of most consequence is inarguably Henry, the next guy up in the long lineage of 1,000-yard rushers in Denver. For most of Shanahan's tenure, the problem has been the absence of a reliable third wide receiver. In the past 12 seasons, the No. 3 wide receivers in Denver averaged an anemic 19.4 catches per year, a remarkably puny amount, even in a passing game that featured the tight end so ambitiously. But this season, the question marks at wide receiver could trickle even below the No. 3 spot. With the lengthy recovery of stalwart Rod Smith, who continues to rehabilitate from Feb. 23 surgery to his left hip and who acknowledged this week he might not be ready for the start of camp, there could be concerns about the viability of the starter opposite Javon Walker in the lineup. "It's all about patience right now," noted the remarkably durable Smith, a former undrafted college free agent who has carved out a brilliant 12-year career that has included two Super Bowl rings and three Pro Bowl appearances. "If I can't do it, I'm not going to go out there and try to do it." But even before the hip operation, in which surgeons addressed a torn labrum, ligament damage and general degeneration, there were some signs that Smith, 37, might not be able to do it at the same levels he reached earlier in his career. In his first nine seasons as a starter, Smith averaged 13.5 yards per catch, 14.6 reception of 20 yards or more and 2.1 catches of 40-plus yards. In 2006, his average per catch plummeted to a career-worst 9.8 yards, with one reception of 20 yards, and none longer. Still, with 52 receptions for 512 yards and three touchdowns in 2006, Smith's numbers are glittering compared to those rung up by the group of receivers who would challenge for his starting job if he isn't ready for the beginning of the season. Without a complementary wide receiver, Walker is going to face a lot of double-teams and secondaries that consistently roll toward him. Consider this bunch: Second-year veteran Brandon Marshall had 20 catches for the Broncos as the No. 3 wideout in 2006, but has struggled with a left thigh injury much of the spring and summer. Brandon Stokley, signed from Indianapolis as an unrestricted free agent, is one of the NFL's premier slot receivers when healthy. But Stokley is trying to come back from a torn Achilles. In 2004, Stokley had 68 catches for 1,077 yards and 10 touchdowns. In his seven other seasons, however, he averaged just 18.7 receptions, and has only 49 grabs since his big 2004 performance. David Kircus has totaled 15 receptions in three seasons. Quincy Morgan, another free agent addition, averaged 38.6 receptions his first four seasons in the league, but has only nine catches the past two years. David Terrell, a first-round choice of the Chicago Bears in 2001, has played in one regular-season game the past two years. Matched against such a dubious collection, even on just one good leg, Smith looks pretty good. But probably not nearly as good as Henry, a classic, one-cut runner whose style is a terrific fit with Denver's traditional zone-blocking scheme, will look to Shanahan and to Cutler when they are searching for a safety net. The tailbacks certainly aren't a constant in Denver, as each of the last four players to lead the franchise in rushing yards -- Clinton Portis (2003), Reuben Droughns (2004), Mike Anderson (2005) and Tatum Bell (2006) -- was traded or released the following spring. The running game and the commitment to it, though, are unwavering. And almost certainly will be again in 2007. So while the Broncos begin a new chapter of their history in 2007, with Cutler opening the year as the starter, it's clear that the Denver offense will be reading from the same playbook it always has since Shanahan arrived. Len Pasquarelli is a senior writer with ESPN.com.

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07-13-2007, 12:20 PM	#2
Garcia Bronco Hokie since 1993 Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Denver, CO Posts: 45,991 Adopt-a-Bronco: Tom Jackson	Hof

07-13-2007, 12:25 PM	#3
epicSocialism4tw Tebowing the long haul all the way to the title Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: TX, USA Posts: 37,072 Adopt-a-Bronco: Champ Bailey	That just might be the best piece Pasquarelli has ever written. He actually contributed a legit, fact-based perspective to the collective Bronco consciousness.

07-13-2007, 12:32 PM	#4
DenverBrit Just hanging out. Got a breath mint?? Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Denver Posts: 11,072 Adopt-a-Bronco: The Team	It's amazing how much some writers obsess about the Bronco's lack of a '3rd WR.' How many teams do have an effective 3rd WR? Smith, Eddie and Sharpe were enough for back-to-back SBs. SD and KC barely have one WR....between them, yet do we ever read about their lack of a '2nd WR', let alone a 3rd?

07-13-2007, 01:27 PM	#5
telluride Ring of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 2,557 Adopt-a-Bronco: --Rulon!--	Well, our WR corps is by far the biggest concern on this team. We're basically one and a mess of questions. And he's right: Javon's going to see double teams all year.

07-13-2007, 02:08 PM	#8
SportinOne Ring of Famer Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 3,422	Not too worried about receiver here. Good quarterbacks make good receivers, not the other way around. Just ask Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell. Better yet, ask Tom Brady.

07-13-2007, 02:16 PM	#9
Paladin Ring of Famer Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 9,150	While others may quiver at the thought that Javon will be double teamed, I'd bet Shanahan is just all atwitter over that prospect. It's why he got Graham, and why Henry will run more. It's why Shaeffer is there. Cutler can go long or short, and I would even bet a boot and a a run-pass option will be in the book as well. I do not think the O will be shut down by anyone for any extended period of time. While there is so much emphasis on the O, I can confidently predict that the Denver D will be in the top 10, maybe the top six or so, of the D's in the league. Not the Conference, the league. Given that combination, it is easy to look forward to an exciting and rewarding season...... And I would predict that Javon will still get more than 12 TDs this year......

07-13-2007, 02:49 PM	#11
NYBronco Ring of Famer Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 2,994	No mention of the TE's in the article. I think our TE's situation is nearly as good as a 3rd WR or it will at least bring forward the 3rd WR.

07-13-2007, 08:12 PM	#14
footstepsfrom#27 helmet to helmet hitter Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Arlington, TX Posts: 16,117 Adopt-a-Bronco: Joe Mays	Yeah...it's early July and Marshall's got a thigh bruise. I guess he's done then.