Great article on why the Colts won't repeat - The Orange Mane

Atlas · 02-07-2007, 08:00 AM

Parity makes a Colts repeat unlikely
John Gambadoro
special for azcentral.com
Feb. 5, 2007 11:05 AM
SoCals link: http://www.azcentral.com/sports/chea.../0205rant.html

The question now becomes: Can Indianapolis and/or Chicago make it back to the Super Bowl next year?

In a league with a salary cap and free agency it is becoming more and more difficult for teams to have sustained success. And the era of dynasties in football may have come to an end with the New England Patriots, and in some ways that is sad.

When you think about the best teams of all time it's easy to point out the Pittsburgh Steelers teams that won four Super Bowl titles in six years, the Dallas Cowboys winning three in four years and the San Francisco 49ers winning four titles in nine years. Those teams dominated the sport and made the sport great. You either loved those teams or hated them, but either way you respected them.

Same goes for the Patriots, who won three titles in four years and got within a game of the Super Bowl this year. New England's dynasty was in some ways more impressive than the others' because of high player movement of this era. The Patriots have lost several key players from their dynasty in recent years, including David Givens, Deion Branch, Ty Law, Willie McGinest. They also lost a good portion of coach Bill Belichick's staff, including Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini.

Chances are neither the Colts nor Bears will be playing in Glendale next January. It's just too hard to repeat with all the parity in the league. And it has become easier than ever for struggling teams to make a couple of moves that catapult them into contention. There are just way too many teams that are only a player or two away from going from an average team to a good team.

Take the New Orleans Saints, for example. Just one year after winning three total games they made it to the NFC Championship game. The signing of Drew Brees, drafting of Reggie Bush and Marcus Colston - and the return to health of Deuce McAllister along with a new coach in Sean Payton - helped the Saints have a remarkable one-season turnaround.

Same goes for the New York Jets, who went 4-12 in 2005. They brought in a new coach in Mangini, and with the return to health of quarterback Chad Pennington, two solid draft picks in D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold and signing of cornerback Andre Dyson, the Jets catapulted to a 10-win season and spot in the playoffs.

And let's not forget that the Baltimore Ravens, were a miserable 6-10 in 2005 and ended up winning a franchise best 13 games a year later and winning the AFC North. The big difference: The signing of free-agent quarterback Steve McNair and return to health of linebacker Ray Lewis.

This year there were seven teams that made the playoffs that didn't the previous year - San Diego, Baltimore, New Orleans, Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia and the Jets. That is parity at its finest. As is the fact that the team that won the Super Bowl last year - the Pittsburgh Steelers didn't even make the playoffs this season. From Super Bowl to mediocrity the Steelers finished 8-8 this season.

But Pittsburgh wasn't the only one that went from being a good team to mediocre. Below is a list of teams that went from the penthouse to the outhouse overnight.

• The Cincinnati Bengals won 11 games and the AFC North in 2005 and fell flat this season, tying with the Steelers in the division at 8-8.

• The Denver Broncos won 13 games and the AFC North last season. They even won a playoff game, beating the New England Patriots. But this season the Broncos fell to 9-7 and missed the playoffs.

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made the playoffs last season by winning the NFC South with an 11-5 record. One year later the Bucs were one of the worst teams in the NFL, losing 12 games.

• The Jacksonville Jaguars played Humpty Dumpty this year and had a great fall as well. After making the playoff with a 12-4 record in 2005 the Jags fell to 8-8 and joined the growing list of average teams in the NFL.

• The Washington Redskins went from 6-10 to 10-6 and a playoff berth to 5-11 over the past three years. Talk about inconsistency.

But perhaps no team defines parity more than the Carolina Panthers. Just check out their last five years and then try to explain why this team resembles a roller-coaster.

2001 - 1-15

2002 - 7-9

2003 - 11-5 (lost in Super Bowl)

2004 - 7-9

2005 - 11-5 (lost in NFC Championship game)

2006 - 8-8

The Panthers are 45-51 over the past six years with three losing seasons, two winning seasons and one .500 season. It's safe to say they are the poster child for parity in the NFL.

The problem is that there are no longer great teams in the NFL. The Patriots had a dynasty going but they aren't considered one of the great teams. The last great team was the Baltimore Ravens in 2000. They were so good on one side of the ball that they earned the right to be considered in the talk among great teams. The Chicago Bears only won one Super Bowl but the 1985 Bears are one of the great teams in football history.

In recent years the Rams, Bucs, Steelers and Colts have taken home the hardware without being a great team. The Colts are a good team, but that's about as far as it goes. Indianapolis went 3-4 down the stretch, including losses to Houston and Tennessee. They were pounded by Jacksonville, 44-17, and also lost to Miami at the RCA Dome. The Colts' offense may have ranked third in the NFL, but their defense ranked 23rd overall and dead last in rushing defense.

With Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai all coming back next year the Colts will start out as the Super Bowl favorites, destined to repeat. But it won't happen. There will be too many hurdles along the way to trip over that will cause Indy to bow out sometime in the playoffs. There are too many teams that are just an off-season move or two away from being contenders. There will be too many teams that can make their season next year by knocking off the champs.

In this day and age the difference between mediocrity and being good is 'thisclose.' The Colts had been knocking on the door for years to win a Super Bowl and they finally got theirs. Now it will be someone else's turn to huff and puff and blow the door down. Maybe it will be San Diego or Seattle or New Orleans. Or maybe it will be some team that comes out of nowhere next year to surprise us such as the Jets, Titans, Chiefs or Panthers. However it turns out it the Colts and Bears will most likely be watching the Super Bowl on television next year. In a league with so many average teams and no great ones, dynasties are becoming a thing of the past. It's all about parity in this day and age of the NFL, where every team actually has a legitimate chance to get to the Super Bowl when the season begins. Unless of course that team plays in Arizona.

fontaine · 02-07-2007, 08:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atlas

Parity makes a Colts repeat unlikely

And let's not forget that the Baltimore Ravens, were a miserable 6-10 in 2005 and ended up winning a franchise best 13 games a year later and winning the AFC North. The big difference: The signing of free-agent quarterback Steve McNair and return to health of linebacker Ray Lewis.

The football gods really kicked us square in the nuts on that count.

The Ravens stumble into Steve McNair who'll be starting there for the next three/fours years while the top two QBs in FA when we were hunting were Plummer/Kordell.

That's like picking between a nosebleed or a paper cut on your tongue.

It could be worse I guess. We could have burned a first on Rex and watched him piss down his legs in the Superbowl like a nervous mutt.

kmartin575 · 02-07-2007, 09:27 AM

The Colts will not repeat because of this. They are in salary cap hell. They have close to the lowest cap room in the NFL and two pro bowlers on defense are free agents. They will franchise Dwight Freeney but that will cost them over $8 million dollars. To make room they will have to restructure Peyton Manning's contract which might save room now but will simply give them a bigger cap hit farther on down the road. Plus, with Cato June leaving as a free agent that leaves big holes at both outside linebacker spots. With guys like Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Robert Mathis all having humongous contracts that will be getting bigger every year the Colts window will be closing very quickly.

Bronco_Beerslug · 02-07-2007, 09:46 AM

I see this article forgot to mention the '97 and '98 Broncos and the '03 and '04 Patriots repeating but I guess that would have undermined the whole story. It's hard for any team to repeat but with Manning the Colts have as good as chance as anyone.

And the Patriots playing in and winning 3 SBs in the last 6 years kinda renders the article moot.

Rohirrim · 02-07-2007, 10:01 AM

I think one of the keys to staying on top in the parity era is having a good QB, as Brady has shown in NE. And the Broncos finally have one. It also looks like Shanahan has made the coaching changes to improve this team's weakest areas. Now, all they need is to pick up some playmakers in FA and the draft. I agree with Shanahan: We're pretty damn close.

Atlas · 02-07-2007, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

I agree with Shanahan: We're pretty damn close.

They could be I mean they Beat the Pats, Ravens, and Bengals. Lost to the Colts by 3 points. Why not Denver next year?

UKBronco · 02-07-2007, 10:18 AM

Quote:

• The Denver Broncos won 13 games and the AFC North last season. They even won a playoff game, beating the New England Patriots. But this season the Broncos fell to 9-7 and missed the playoffs.

Can anyone find confirmation of that feat on Denverbroncos.com?

I guess we're so modest we don't like to advertise the fact we actually won 2 divisions last year

fontaine · 02-07-2007, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kmartin575

The Colts will not repeat because of this. They are in salary cap hell. They have close to the lowest cap room in the NFL and two pro bowlers on defense are free agents. They will franchise Dwight Freeney but that will cost them over $8 million dollars. To make room they will have to restructure Peyton Manning's contract which might save room now but will simply give them a bigger cap hit farther on down the road. Plus, with Cato June leaving as a free agent that leaves big holes at both outside linebacker spots. With guys like Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Robert Mathis all having humongous contracts that will be getting bigger every year the Colts window will be closing very quickly.

I'm not so sure.

The Colts have allowed LBs to go via free agency before and Dungy seems to have a very good handle on the type of guys he can draft at LB to replace starters since he's run the cover 2 defense for years.

Dwight Freeney? He was invisible for most of the year with a knee injury and they lost their two best DTs in Corey Simon, Monte Reagor, yet still won the SuperBowl.

The job Dungy did in changing his porous run D to a decent one that late in the season was almost miraculous and I don't think he gets enough credit for what he's done defensively with what little cap room he's add after Wayne, Harrison, Manning, Glenn got done with contracts.

I hope they crash and burn but Dungy seems to run a tight ship.

zdoor · 02-07-2007, 10:50 AM

I think their chances are decent, champs are champs until they are dethroned...

Addai should be better next year and they seem to draft well.

Paladin · 02-07-2007, 11:16 AM

I think the other teams in the AFC South are going to show improvement and that is where the biggest challenge will come to the Dolts. If you remember, during the "Great Dynasty Run", the other teams in the AFC East flat out sucked, allowing a "good" NE team to get HFA all the time. They had to play maybe three "big" games a year. The same is true of the Dolts. Now we will see what Tennessee and J'ville and Texas can do with their levels of improvement. Part of the secret of winning the whole thing - aside from getting "hot" - is to win the Division and get the HFA, at least for one game.

The AFC West is so competitive between the Broncos and the Chuggers with the mullets bringing up the rear as darkhorses that even the Faiders cannot drag down the level of difficulty to win the Division. I think that is the main threat to the Dolts next year. But I do agree that the amount of money they have in contracts in a small number of people can be a real issue at some point. We will see.

Polinan and Peterson will probably lobby for cap exemptions on the grounds of being small market teams......

02-07-2007, 08:00 AM	#1
Atlas Draft Defense Early&Often Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 18,526	Great article on why the Colts won't repeat Parity makes a Colts repeat unlikely John Gambadoro special for azcentral.com Feb. 5, 2007 11:05 AM SoCals link: http://www.azcentral.com/sports/chea.../0205rant.html The question now becomes: Can Indianapolis and/or Chicago make it back to the Super Bowl next year? In a league with a salary cap and free agency it is becoming more and more difficult for teams to have sustained success. And the era of dynasties in football may have come to an end with the New England Patriots, and in some ways that is sad. When you think about the best teams of all time it's easy to point out the Pittsburgh Steelers teams that won four Super Bowl titles in six years, the Dallas Cowboys winning three in four years and the San Francisco 49ers winning four titles in nine years. Those teams dominated the sport and made the sport great. You either loved those teams or hated them, but either way you respected them. Same goes for the Patriots, who won three titles in four years and got within a game of the Super Bowl this year. New England's dynasty was in some ways more impressive than the others' because of high player movement of this era. The Patriots have lost several key players from their dynasty in recent years, including David Givens, Deion Branch, Ty Law, Willie McGinest. They also lost a good portion of coach Bill Belichick's staff, including Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini. Chances are neither the Colts nor Bears will be playing in Glendale next January. It's just too hard to repeat with all the parity in the league. And it has become easier than ever for struggling teams to make a couple of moves that catapult them into contention. There are just way too many teams that are only a player or two away from going from an average team to a good team. Take the New Orleans Saints, for example. Just one year after winning three total games they made it to the NFC Championship game. The signing of Drew Brees, drafting of Reggie Bush and Marcus Colston - and the return to health of Deuce McAllister along with a new coach in Sean Payton - helped the Saints have a remarkable one-season turnaround. Same goes for the New York Jets, who went 4-12 in 2005. They brought in a new coach in Mangini, and with the return to health of quarterback Chad Pennington, two solid draft picks in D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold and signing of cornerback Andre Dyson, the Jets catapulted to a 10-win season and spot in the playoffs. And let's not forget that the Baltimore Ravens, were a miserable 6-10 in 2005 and ended up winning a franchise best 13 games a year later and winning the AFC North. The big difference: The signing of free-agent quarterback Steve McNair and return to health of linebacker Ray Lewis. This year there were seven teams that made the playoffs that didn't the previous year - San Diego, Baltimore, New Orleans, Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia and the Jets. That is parity at its finest. As is the fact that the team that won the Super Bowl last year - the Pittsburgh Steelers didn't even make the playoffs this season. From Super Bowl to mediocrity the Steelers finished 8-8 this season. But Pittsburgh wasn't the only one that went from being a good team to mediocre. Below is a list of teams that went from the penthouse to the outhouse overnight. • The Cincinnati Bengals won 11 games and the AFC North in 2005 and fell flat this season, tying with the Steelers in the division at 8-8. • The Denver Broncos won 13 games and the AFC North last season. They even won a playoff game, beating the New England Patriots. But this season the Broncos fell to 9-7 and missed the playoffs. • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made the playoffs last season by winning the NFC South with an 11-5 record. One year later the Bucs were one of the worst teams in the NFL, losing 12 games. • The Jacksonville Jaguars played Humpty Dumpty this year and had a great fall as well. After making the playoff with a 12-4 record in 2005 the Jags fell to 8-8 and joined the growing list of average teams in the NFL. • The Washington Redskins went from 6-10 to 10-6 and a playoff berth to 5-11 over the past three years. Talk about inconsistency. But perhaps no team defines parity more than the Carolina Panthers. Just check out their last five years and then try to explain why this team resembles a roller-coaster. 2001 - 1-15 2002 - 7-9 2003 - 11-5 (lost in Super Bowl) 2004 - 7-9 2005 - 11-5 (lost in NFC Championship game) 2006 - 8-8 The Panthers are 45-51 over the past six years with three losing seasons, two winning seasons and one .500 season. It's safe to say they are the poster child for parity in the NFL. The problem is that there are no longer great teams in the NFL. The Patriots had a dynasty going but they aren't considered one of the great teams. The last great team was the Baltimore Ravens in 2000. They were so good on one side of the ball that they earned the right to be considered in the talk among great teams. The Chicago Bears only won one Super Bowl but the 1985 Bears are one of the great teams in football history. In recent years the Rams, Bucs, Steelers and Colts have taken home the hardware without being a great team. The Colts are a good team, but that's about as far as it goes. Indianapolis went 3-4 down the stretch, including losses to Houston and Tennessee. They were pounded by Jacksonville, 44-17, and also lost to Miami at the RCA Dome. The Colts' offense may have ranked third in the NFL, but their defense ranked 23rd overall and dead last in rushing defense. With Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai all coming back next year the Colts will start out as the Super Bowl favorites, destined to repeat. But it won't happen. There will be too many hurdles along the way to trip over that will cause Indy to bow out sometime in the playoffs. There are too many teams that are just an off-season move or two away from being contenders. There will be too many teams that can make their season next year by knocking off the champs. In this day and age the difference between mediocrity and being good is 'thisclose.' The Colts had been knocking on the door for years to win a Super Bowl and they finally got theirs. Now it will be someone else's turn to huff and puff and blow the door down. Maybe it will be San Diego or Seattle or New Orleans. Or maybe it will be some team that comes out of nowhere next year to surprise us such as the Jets, Titans, Chiefs or Panthers. However it turns out it the Colts and Bears will most likely be watching the Super Bowl on television next year. In a league with so many average teams and no great ones, dynasties are becoming a thing of the past. It's all about parity in this day and age of the NFL, where every team actually has a legitimate chance to get to the Super Bowl when the season begins. Unless of course that team plays in Arizona.

02-07-2007, 09:46 AM	#4
Bronco_Beerslug Angling in the Deep Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Texas Riviera, Southern Mountains Posts: 24,281	I see this article forgot to mention the '97 and '98 Broncos and the '03 and '04 Patriots repeating but I guess that would have undermined the whole story. It's hard for any team to repeat but with Manning the Colts have as good as chance as anyone. And the Patriots playing in and winning 3 SBs in the last 6 years kinda renders the article moot. Last edited by Bronco_Beerslug; 02-07-2007 at 09:54 AM..

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02-07-2007, 09:27 AM	#3
kmartin575 Perennial Pro-bowler Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 886	The Colts will not repeat because of this. They are in salary cap hell. They have close to the lowest cap room in the NFL and two pro bowlers on defense are free agents. They will franchise Dwight Freeney but that will cost them over $8 million dollars. To make room they will have to restructure Peyton Manning's contract which might save room now but will simply give them a bigger cap hit farther on down the road. Plus, with Cato June leaving as a free agent that leaves big holes at both outside linebacker spots. With guys like Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Robert Mathis all having humongous contracts that will be getting bigger every year the Colts window will be closing very quickly.

02-07-2007, 10:01 AM	#5
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,842	I think one of the keys to staying on top in the parity era is having a good QB, as Brady has shown in NE. And the Broncos finally have one. It also looks like Shanahan has made the coaching changes to improve this team's weakest areas. Now, all they need is to pick up some playmakers in FA and the draft. I agree with Shanahan: We're pretty damn close.

02-07-2007, 10:50 AM	#9
zdoor Jamaica Bound! Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Templeton, Ca. Posts: 1,672	I think their chances are decent, champs are champs until they are dethroned... Addai should be better next year and they seem to draft well.

02-07-2007, 11:16 AM	#10
Paladin Ring of Famer Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 9,150	I think the other teams in the AFC South are going to show improvement and that is where the biggest challenge will come to the Dolts. If you remember, during the "Great Dynasty Run", the other teams in the AFC East flat out sucked, allowing a "good" NE team to get HFA all the time. They had to play maybe three "big" games a year. The same is true of the Dolts. Now we will see what Tennessee and J'ville and Texas can do with their levels of improvement. Part of the secret of winning the whole thing - aside from getting "hot" - is to win the Division and get the HFA, at least for one game. The AFC West is so competitive between the Broncos and the Chuggers with the mullets bringing up the rear as darkhorses that even the Faiders cannot drag down the level of difficulty to win the Division. I think that is the main threat to the Dolts next year. But I do agree that the amount of money they have in contracts in a small number of people can be a real issue at some point. We will see. Polinan and Peterson will probably lobby for cap exemptions on the grounds of being small market teams......