Are Saudis waging an oil-price war on Iran? - The Orange Mane

alkemical · 01-24-2007, 10:45 PM

Are Saudis waging an oil-price war on Iran?

ANALYSIS
By Robert Windrem
Investigative producer
NBC News
Updated: 3:03 p.m. ET Jan 23, 2007

Robert Windrem
Investigative producer
• E-mail

Oil traders and others believe that the Saudi decision to let the price of oil tumble has more to do with Iran than economics.

Their belief has been reinforced in recent days as the Saudi oil minister has steadfastly refused calls for a special meeting of OPEC and announced that the nation is going to increase its production, which will send the price down even farther.

Saudi Oil Minister Ibrahim al-Naimi even said during a recent trip to India that oil prices are headed in the "right direction."

Not for the Iranians.

Moreover, the traders believe the Saudis are not doing this alone, that the other Sunni-dominated oil producing countries and the U.S. are working together, believing it will hurt majority-Shiite Iran economically and create a domestic crisis for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose popularity at home is on the wane. The traders also believe (with good reason) that the U.S. is trying to tighten the screws on Iran financially at the same time the Saudis are reducing the Islamic Republic’s oil revenues.

For the Saudis, who fear Iran’s religious, geopolitical and nuclear aspirations, the decision to lower the price of oil has a number of benefits, the biggest being to deprive Iran of hard currency. It also may create unrest in a country that is its rival on a number of levels and permits the Saudis to show the U.S. that military action may not be necessary.

The Saudis firmly and publicly deny this, saying it’s all about economics. Not everyone believes them.

“If under normal circumstances, the price of oil was falling this dramatically [17% in the last few months], Saudi Arabia would have already called for a special OPEC meeting,” says one oil trader. “It’s got to be something else and that something else has to be Iran.”

Costs higher in Iran
The trader notes that Iran, OPEC’s second largest producer, is “in trouble” both in the short and long term. Iran’s oil reserves, he notes, are declining more rapidly than Saudi Arabia’s and are more difficult to extract. While a barrel of oil costs the Saudis $2-3 to get out of the ground and to market, that same barrel costs Iran as much as $15-18.

“Iran does have some oil that costs them $8-10 but most of it is in that upper range,” he said.

Moreover, Iran has a large domestic market for oil, particularly fuel oil, which Saudi Arabia, with its smaller population and milder climate, does not.

Perhaps more important, because Iran has limited refining capability, it must import more than 40 percent its gasoline, making it the second largest importer of gasoline in the world after the United States, according to the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency.

And since Iran sells gasoline at a rate comparable to the rest of the Gulf states — around 33 cents a gallon — it must subsidize the price on a massive scale. In fact, say traders, Iran is paying about $1.50 per gallon to subsidize domestic gasoline consumption — the world market price of gasoline minus the tiny price per gallon — a practice that is costing Iran billions of dollars annually and eating up most of the state-run oil company’s discretionary funds.

Iran has other problems that make it vulnerable. Inflation is officially running at 17 percent, the highest since the revolution, and unemployment is at 11 percent. U.S. intelligence, though, believes the real figures are much higher, with inflation as high as 50 percent and joblessness much higher among the country's restless youth). In addition, capital outflow is estimated at $50 billion annually and budget deficits are a chronic problem, leading to overseas borrowing.

And none of this takes into account the possibility that the United Nations will impose harsher sanctions if Iran continues its work on nuclear weapons technology.

Political fallout
There are domestic political consequences to such a convergence, note traders and officials in both the U.S. and Iran. Ahmadinejad was elected on campaign promises that he would end corruption and better distribute the nation’s oil wealth. He has been unable to do either; now, with declining oil revenues, his job will be even more difficult.

One sign of this is the street demonstrations he has faced each time his administration has so much as floated the suggestion of a small increase in the price of gasoline. To counter his inability to fulfill his domestic promises, Ahmadinejad has played the nationalism/nuclear card, accusing the West of trying to stifle Iran’s legitimate energy needs.

How long and how successfully he can play these cards is debatable. Municipal elections last month unveiled a lot of dissatisfaction as opposition parties swept through municipal majlises throughout the country. His rival in the 2005 presidential election, Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, has criticized him publicly for the first time, as have others close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Student demonstrations and local newspapers are becoming increasingly critical of the “dictator.”

CONTINUED: White House happy to let Saudis apply pressure

Paladin · 01-24-2007, 10:57 PM

Interesting. It also highlights for me that the Sunni-Shiite confrontation is not over and will be acted out in Iraq whenever the "Coalition of the Willing" leave that sorry country.

Because that is a sectarian civil war, I believe continuous American presence there is unwarranted.

Jetmeck · 01-24-2007, 11:35 PM

Agreed Paladin.

As far as OPEC goes the last few years have been the only times they have stuck pretty much to quota anyway. I hope they do pump more and I hope I live to see this country using solar and wind power and OPEC can go to
H$LL.

cutthemdown · 01-25-2007, 12:34 AM

I would think lower oil prices would also hurt Chavez in Venezuala. He has tied all of his programs to oil revenue.

defenseman · 01-25-2007, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cutthemdown

I would think lower oil prices would also hurt Chavez in Venezuala. He has tied all of his programs to oil revenue.

Love for this to work, whether planned and negotiated or not. I'm guessing the kheomani in iran will try to shut down little hitler from taking action. We'll see if he's successful. If not, it will force that little bastard to show his true colors, then hopefully we all take him out or his own countrymen take him out politically. Apparently, there are many in iran that are scared to death of the guy, whatever we can do for them to help them de-throne this bastard works for me. Chavez, he'll get his. And you are right, he has tied up alot of his base in petroleum. Hopefully this will help sink the nut case in venezuela..dman

Bronco_Beerslug · 01-25-2007, 09:33 AM

This is the "favor" I was talking about in the Oil thread the Saudis were doing in return for our help on something they wanted not yet specified.

alkemical · 01-25-2007, 09:44 AM

Ok. Yeah i didn't really "see" this side. I kept wondering why oil was falling though...

defenseman · 01-25-2007, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco_Beerslug

This is the "favor" I was talking about in the Oil thread the Saudis were doing in return for our help on something they wanted not yet specified.

If so, good call. Question is, when do they cut production and prices rise? My guess is they'll need to maintain a nice low dollar/barrel cost for a while to really hurt iran. Then again, with little hitler's apparent "popularity" headed on the downside slowly, maybe it won't take as long as we could imagine..dman

defenseman · 01-25-2007, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claviculasolomonis

Ok. Yeah i didn't really "see" this side. I kept wondering why oil was falling though...

It appears given circumstances and actions, this certianly could be one of the reasons. Start hitting folks in their pocket books and drive quality of life down for an entire country, they'll start getting antsy and want to fix the issue..dman

Bronco_Beerslug · 01-25-2007, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by defenseman

If so, good call. Question is, when do they cut production and prices rise? My guess is they'll need to maintain a nice low dollar/barrel cost for a while to really hurt iran. Then again, with little hitler's apparent "popularity" headed on the downside slowly, maybe it won't take as long as we could imagine..dman

I really don't think oil can be held down long no matter what happens as world demand keeps growing. And now China is filling it's reserves at the rate of 150,000 barrels a day I believe.

defenseman · 01-25-2007, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco_Beerslug

I really don't think oil can be held down long no matter what happens as world demand keeps growing. And now China is filling it's reserves at the rate of 150,000 barrels a day I believe.

Can't blame them for that..dman

loborugger · 01-25-2007, 11:04 AM

That and Bush called for doubling the size of the Strategic Oil Reserve during the State of the Union address. That should keep demand high even if supply is high.

The Saudis may be doing us a favor, even if they dont mean to. Lowering oil prices would in turn cut revenue for two of the less appealing nations around - Iran and VZ.

On that note, near my house, there is a corner near my house where an Exxon sits one side of the street while a Citgo sits on the other. I notice consistently that the Citgo is a couple pennies cheaper than the Exxon. Anyone else seeing that?

defenseman · 01-25-2007, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by loborugger

That and Bush called for doubling the size of the Strategic Oil Reserve during the State of the Union address. That should keep demand high even if supply is high.

The Saudis may be doing us a favor, even if they dont mean to. Lowering oil prices would in turn cut revenue for two of the less appealing nations around - Iran and VZ.

On that note, near my house, there is a corner near my house where an Exxon sits one side of the street while a Citgo sits on the other. I notice consistently that the Citgo is a couple pennies cheaper than the Exxon. Anyone else seeing that?

Haven't noticed? Your point?..dman

loborugger · 01-25-2007, 01:31 PM

Citgo is owned by Chavez's govt. My guess is they are either 1. actually cheaper, or 2. keeping prices down to attract customers that are turned off by the Chavez Govt.

alkemical · 02-07-2007, 11:41 PM

Saudis put their status on the line in bid to end Palestinian crisis

Saudi Arabia threw its weight, wealth and prestige behind urgent efforts to end Palestinian divisions yesterday as it stepped up a diplomatic drive to challenge Iran and its regional allies and play a more muscular role across the Middle East.

King Abdullah's mediation between Ismail Haniyeh, the prime minister and leader of the Islamist movement Hamas, and Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, represents a high-profile attempt to defuse the crisis by steering these bitter rivals to forge a desperately needed deal on a national unity government.

The Palestinian leaders came to the Saudi holy city of Mecca after the king rebuked them for internecine fighting which he called "a shameful stain on the history of the honourable national Palestinian struggle to end occupation". The death of 60 people in 10 days "serves only the interests of the enemies of Islam and the Arabs", he said. Given his role as "Custodian of the Two Holy Shrines" they could hardly ignore the royal appeal.

The high stakes were underlined by the symbolism of the venue - a palace overlooking the Ka'aba, the black-draped shrine towards which Muslims turn when they pray. "They will not leave this holy place without an agreement, because things are catastrophic ... and the whole world will turn its back on us if we continue that way," said Jamal al-Shobaki, the Palestinian ambassador to Saudi Arabia.

The talks fit into a pattern of what analysts and diplomats see as new activism by the normally low-key Saudis, who are more used to quietly wielding chequebooks to buy influence and preserve the status quo than launching public initiatives to achieve their goals.

The oil-rich, conservative kingdom has been galvanised into action by fears about the continuing chaos and violence in Iraq, the increasingly assertive Iranian influence across the region - in Iraq, Lebanon and, most recently, in the Palestinian territories - and anxieties about a widening divide between Sunni and Shia Muslims.

"The Saudis are genuinely worried about things getting out of hand on several fronts at once," said Claire Spencer of the Royal Institute of International Affairs. "They want to be seen as an honest broker in the region and not leave everything to the Iranians, who are not doing anything positive to resolve current problems."

The Saudis were horrified by last summer's war in Lebanon, when Hizbullah seemed to be fighting Israel as part proxy for Iran, Syria and the Palestinians.

The last abortive attempt to end Palestinian infighting took place in talks in Damascus last month between Mr Abbas and the Hamas leader in exile, Khaled Meshal. Success in Mecca would be seen as weakening Iranian and Syrian influence. Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states worry, like the Saudis, that Tehran has become Hamas's biggest financial backer.

"It is very encouraging to see the Saudis playing such an open role," one Arab diplomat said last night. "They are right to be concerned."

The Saudis have their own area with a Shia majority -the oil-producing eastern provinces where 10%-15% of the population live - and are anxious to avoid unrest there.

"The Saudis say they are afraid of the Shia but it's not true," argues a senior Jordanian. "They know the Americans will defend them and their oil. But they are afraid of the example that Hizbullah has set." Thus the recent intensive attempts to broker a deal in Lebanon, which included an unprecedented meeting with Hizbullah officials, and exploratory contacts with the Iranians. King Abdullah has also met Ali Larijani, the Islamic Republic's chief nuclear negotiator.

"The Saudis want to be seen by the Americans as the ones who make a difference," said the Saudi scholar Madawi al-Rasheed of Kings College London. "There are a lot of references to Islamic unity but they are trying to go to areas where they can be given credit."

The mediators

King Abdullah bin Abdelaziz al-Saud, 83. Became king in 2005 but de facto regent since 1995. Favours Arab-oriented foreign policy. Seen as close to George Bush. Warned Iran against interference in Arab world.

Prince Saud al-Faisal, 67, one of world's longest-serving foreign ministers. Helped kingdom improve image after 9/11. Critic of Iran's president.

Prince Muqrin bin Abdel-Aziz, 61. Intelligence chief. Usually at top meetings. Runs fight against al-Qaida.

Rohirrim · 02-08-2007, 09:58 AM

A couple of months ago, the Saudis said they would not sit on the sidelines while Shiites wiped out Sunnis in Baghdad. I guess this is what they meant.

alkemical · 02-08-2007, 10:30 AM

They have their own bacon to worry about too. Last thing the royal family wants is to lose their power base and influence.

Sort of funny in some ways.

Ninjafied · 02-08-2007, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco_Beerslug

This is the "favor" I was talking about in the Oil thread the Saudis were doing in return for our help on something they wanted not yet specified.

This might be a case of – do me a favor and just do yourself a favor

cutthemdown · 02-08-2007, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

A couple of months ago, the Saudis said they would not sit on the sidelines while Shiites wiped out Sunnis in Baghdad. I guess this is what they meant.

they also meant that if the United States pulled out they would have to fund the the Sunni's against the Shia. Right now that probably is coming a lot more from Syria in the form of weapons. I'm sure some rich saudis are in on that as well but prob not the royal family yet.

alkemical · 02-16-2007, 04:00 PM

Prelude to Progress

Prelude to Progress
How to respond to the Palestinian Mecca deal.

Under Saudi auspices in the holy city of Mecca, overlooking the sacred Kaaba stone, Palestinian Fatah and Hamas leaderships finally reached a power-sharing deal last week. The deal came 13 months after the Hamas victory in Palestinian legislative elections, and the party's subsequent inability to form a functioning government in the face of an international boycott, Arab opposition, and an ongoing standoff with President Abbas and his Fatah movement.

The occasional armed clashes that occurred in the last year between Fatah and Hamas descended last month into an open and violent confrontation. The deteriorating situation included mutual kidnappings, assassinations of senior security figures, and external offers of help to rearm the respective sides (principally by the United States and Iran). A situation threatening to spiral out of control, Somalia-style, may have been what brought both parties back from the precipice. The Palestinian public was beginning to turn against both Fatah and Hamas in a “plague on both your houses” sense of exasperation. Conditions seemed unworkable for resuming a peace process and Israelis feared that internal Palestinian violence would spill over the border, as it in fact did in the recent Eilat suicide bombing.

As both The New York Times and Washington Post commented in weekend editorials, the U.S. administration has neutralized itself as a possible diplomatic deal-broker almost across the entire region, leaving others to fill the vacuum. In this case, it was the Saudis. It will be difficult to make the Hamas-Fatah deal stick given the intense mutual animosity. Yet this deal offers the best and perhaps only prospect for averting collapse and chaos on the Palestinian side, with all its implications for regional and Israeli security, as well as for facilitating the development of a meaningful Palestinian interlocutor -- with the capacity to deliver -- for peace talks.

The key players were in attendance at Mecca -- Fatah leader Abbas and security strongman Mohammed Dahlan and the Hamas internal and external leaderships, Ismail Haniyya and Khaled Mesh’al. Saudi pressure for the sides to adhere to the agreements will be intense, especially in advance of the Arab League summit that Saudi Arabia will host at the end of March. That should provide a breathing space of several weeks that may be enough to stand the government on its feet. The Saudi pressure is likely to be backed up by a hard cash incentive. Other Arab leaders had also been getting antsy at the accusations of their own impotence in ending the internecine Palestinian strife. Egypt, Syria, Qatar, and Jordan had all been facilitating their own backchannels between the Palestinian parties. The Arab press has been almost unanimous in welcoming the agreement.

(cont'd on site)

yavoon · 02-16-2007, 04:49 PM

the mecca deal is a joke. supposedly the "international community" cutoff the palestinians from aid(like the palestinians are entitled to hundreds of millions of dollars anyway) because the "new government" was a supporter of terrorism, and didnt recognize israel's right to exist.

well this deal doesn't address any of those issues. I can see many deals like this in the future. just keep making deals and keep screaming that america/whoever wont respect ur right to get aid just because u like blowing up civilians in coffee shops.

cbs1177 · 02-17-2007, 03:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by loborugger

That and Bush called for doubling the size of the Strategic Oil Reserve during the State of the Union address. That should keep demand high even if supply is high.

The Saudis may be doing us a favor, even if they dont mean to. Lowering oil prices would in turn cut revenue for two of the less appealing nations around - Iran and VZ.

On that note, near my house, there is a corner near my house where an Exxon sits one side of the street while a Citgo sits on the other. I notice consistently that the Citgo is a couple pennies cheaper than the Exxon. Anyone else seeing that?

Actually our Exxon is the last to raise prices when we get a jump in oil prices. Thus they are the last to lower prices. I don't go to Citgo any more b/c of Vz. Not even for a paper. I tend to shop at Krogers or Sams club for gas now. Support the Exxon in town b/c it is the only one with my banks ATM machine. West of the Mississippi

01-24-2007, 10:45 PM	#1
alkemical Guerrilla Ontologist rorrim\|mirror Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Future Posts: 42,723 Adopt-a-Bronco: Prima Materia	Are Saudis waging an oil-price war on Iran? Are Saudis waging an oil-price war on Iran? ANALYSIS By Robert Windrem Investigative producer NBC News Updated: 3:03 p.m. ET Jan 23, 2007 Robert Windrem Investigative producer • E-mail Oil traders and others believe that the Saudi decision to let the price of oil tumble has more to do with Iran than economics. Their belief has been reinforced in recent days as the Saudi oil minister has steadfastly refused calls for a special meeting of OPEC and announced that the nation is going to increase its production, which will send the price down even farther. Saudi Oil Minister Ibrahim al-Naimi even said during a recent trip to India that oil prices are headed in the "right direction." Not for the Iranians. Moreover, the traders believe the Saudis are not doing this alone, that the other Sunni-dominated oil producing countries and the U.S. are working together, believing it will hurt majority-Shiite Iran economically and create a domestic crisis for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose popularity at home is on the wane. The traders also believe (with good reason) that the U.S. is trying to tighten the screws on Iran financially at the same time the Saudis are reducing the Islamic Republic’s oil revenues. For the Saudis, who fear Iran’s religious, geopolitical and nuclear aspirations, the decision to lower the price of oil has a number of benefits, the biggest being to deprive Iran of hard currency. It also may create unrest in a country that is its rival on a number of levels and permits the Saudis to show the U.S. that military action may not be necessary. The Saudis firmly and publicly deny this, saying it’s all about economics. Not everyone believes them. “If under normal circumstances, the price of oil was falling this dramatically [17% in the last few months], Saudi Arabia would have already called for a special OPEC meeting,” says one oil trader. “It’s got to be something else and that something else has to be Iran.” Costs higher in Iran The trader notes that Iran, OPEC’s second largest producer, is “in trouble” both in the short and long term. Iran’s oil reserves, he notes, are declining more rapidly than Saudi Arabia’s and are more difficult to extract. While a barrel of oil costs the Saudis $2-3 to get out of the ground and to market, that same barrel costs Iran as much as $15-18. “Iran does have some oil that costs them $8-10 but most of it is in that upper range,” he said. Moreover, Iran has a large domestic market for oil, particularly fuel oil, which Saudi Arabia, with its smaller population and milder climate, does not. Perhaps more important, because Iran has limited refining capability, it must import more than 40 percent its gasoline, making it the second largest importer of gasoline in the world after the United States, according to the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency. And since Iran sells gasoline at a rate comparable to the rest of the Gulf states — around 33 cents a gallon — it must subsidize the price on a massive scale. In fact, say traders, Iran is paying about $1.50 per gallon to subsidize domestic gasoline consumption — the world market price of gasoline minus the tiny price per gallon — a practice that is costing Iran billions of dollars annually and eating up most of the state-run oil company’s discretionary funds. Iran has other problems that make it vulnerable. Inflation is officially running at 17 percent, the highest since the revolution, and unemployment is at 11 percent. U.S. intelligence, though, believes the real figures are much higher, with inflation as high as 50 percent and joblessness much higher among the country's restless youth). In addition, capital outflow is estimated at $50 billion annually and budget deficits are a chronic problem, leading to overseas borrowing. And none of this takes into account the possibility that the United Nations will impose harsher sanctions if Iran continues its work on nuclear weapons technology. Political fallout There are domestic political consequences to such a convergence, note traders and officials in both the U.S. and Iran. Ahmadinejad was elected on campaign promises that he would end corruption and better distribute the nation’s oil wealth. He has been unable to do either; now, with declining oil revenues, his job will be even more difficult. One sign of this is the street demonstrations he has faced each time his administration has so much as floated the suggestion of a small increase in the price of gasoline. To counter his inability to fulfill his domestic promises, Ahmadinejad has played the nationalism/nuclear card, accusing the West of trying to stifle Iran’s legitimate energy needs. How long and how successfully he can play these cards is debatable. Municipal elections last month unveiled a lot of dissatisfaction as opposition parties swept through municipal majlises throughout the country. His rival in the 2005 presidential election, Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, has criticized him publicly for the first time, as have others close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Student demonstrations and local newspapers are becoming increasingly critical of the “dictator.” CONTINUED: White House happy to let Saudis apply pressure

02-07-2007, 11:41 PM	#15
alkemical Guerrilla Ontologist rorrim\|mirror Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Future Posts: 42,723 Adopt-a-Bronco: Prima Materia	Saudis put their status on the line Saudis put their status on the line in bid to end Palestinian crisis Saudi Arabia threw its weight, wealth and prestige behind urgent efforts to end Palestinian divisions yesterday as it stepped up a diplomatic drive to challenge Iran and its regional allies and play a more muscular role across the Middle East. King Abdullah's mediation between Ismail Haniyeh, the prime minister and leader of the Islamist movement Hamas, and Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, represents a high-profile attempt to defuse the crisis by steering these bitter rivals to forge a desperately needed deal on a national unity government. The Palestinian leaders came to the Saudi holy city of Mecca after the king rebuked them for internecine fighting which he called "a shameful stain on the history of the honourable national Palestinian struggle to end occupation". The death of 60 people in 10 days "serves only the interests of the enemies of Islam and the Arabs", he said. Given his role as "Custodian of the Two Holy Shrines" they could hardly ignore the royal appeal. The high stakes were underlined by the symbolism of the venue - a palace overlooking the Ka'aba, the black-draped shrine towards which Muslims turn when they pray. "They will not leave this holy place without an agreement, because things are catastrophic ... and the whole world will turn its back on us if we continue that way," said Jamal al-Shobaki, the Palestinian ambassador to Saudi Arabia. The talks fit into a pattern of what analysts and diplomats see as new activism by the normally low-key Saudis, who are more used to quietly wielding chequebooks to buy influence and preserve the status quo than launching public initiatives to achieve their goals. The oil-rich, conservative kingdom has been galvanised into action by fears about the continuing chaos and violence in Iraq, the increasingly assertive Iranian influence across the region - in Iraq, Lebanon and, most recently, in the Palestinian territories - and anxieties about a widening divide between Sunni and Shia Muslims. "The Saudis are genuinely worried about things getting out of hand on several fronts at once," said Claire Spencer of the Royal Institute of International Affairs. "They want to be seen as an honest broker in the region and not leave everything to the Iranians, who are not doing anything positive to resolve current problems." The Saudis were horrified by last summer's war in Lebanon, when Hizbullah seemed to be fighting Israel as part proxy for Iran, Syria and the Palestinians. The last abortive attempt to end Palestinian infighting took place in talks in Damascus last month between Mr Abbas and the Hamas leader in exile, Khaled Meshal. Success in Mecca would be seen as weakening Iranian and Syrian influence. Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states worry, like the Saudis, that Tehran has become Hamas's biggest financial backer. "It is very encouraging to see the Saudis playing such an open role," one Arab diplomat said last night. "They are right to be concerned." The Saudis have their own area with a Shia majority -the oil-producing eastern provinces where 10%-15% of the population live - and are anxious to avoid unrest there. "The Saudis say they are afraid of the Shia but it's not true," argues a senior Jordanian. "They know the Americans will defend them and their oil. But they are afraid of the example that Hizbullah has set." Thus the recent intensive attempts to broker a deal in Lebanon, which included an unprecedented meeting with Hizbullah officials, and exploratory contacts with the Iranians. King Abdullah has also met Ali Larijani, the Islamic Republic's chief nuclear negotiator. "The Saudis want to be seen by the Americans as the ones who make a difference," said the Saudi scholar Madawi al-Rasheed of Kings College London. "There are a lot of references to Islamic unity but they are trying to go to areas where they can be given credit." The mediators King Abdullah bin Abdelaziz al-Saud, 83. Became king in 2005 but de facto regent since 1995. Favours Arab-oriented foreign policy. Seen as close to George Bush. Warned Iran against interference in Arab world. Prince Saud al-Faisal, 67, one of world's longest-serving foreign ministers. Helped kingdom improve image after 9/11. Critic of Iran's president. Prince Muqrin bin Abdel-Aziz, 61. Intelligence chief. Usually at top meetings. Runs fight against al-Qaida.

02-16-2007, 04:00 PM	#20
alkemical Guerrilla Ontologist rorrim\|mirror Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Future Posts: 42,723 Adopt-a-Bronco: Prima Materia	Prelude to Progress Prelude to Progress Prelude to Progress How to respond to the Palestinian Mecca deal. Under Saudi auspices in the holy city of Mecca, overlooking the sacred Kaaba stone, Palestinian Fatah and Hamas leaderships finally reached a power-sharing deal last week. The deal came 13 months after the Hamas victory in Palestinian legislative elections, and the party's subsequent inability to form a functioning government in the face of an international boycott, Arab opposition, and an ongoing standoff with President Abbas and his Fatah movement. The occasional armed clashes that occurred in the last year between Fatah and Hamas descended last month into an open and violent confrontation. The deteriorating situation included mutual kidnappings, assassinations of senior security figures, and external offers of help to rearm the respective sides (principally by the United States and Iran). A situation threatening to spiral out of control, Somalia-style, may have been what brought both parties back from the precipice. The Palestinian public was beginning to turn against both Fatah and Hamas in a “plague on both your houses” sense of exasperation. Conditions seemed unworkable for resuming a peace process and Israelis feared that internal Palestinian violence would spill over the border, as it in fact did in the recent Eilat suicide bombing. As both The New York Times and Washington Post commented in weekend editorials, the U.S. administration has neutralized itself as a possible diplomatic deal-broker almost across the entire region, leaving others to fill the vacuum. In this case, it was the Saudis. It will be difficult to make the Hamas-Fatah deal stick given the intense mutual animosity. Yet this deal offers the best and perhaps only prospect for averting collapse and chaos on the Palestinian side, with all its implications for regional and Israeli security, as well as for facilitating the development of a meaningful Palestinian interlocutor -- with the capacity to deliver -- for peace talks. The key players were in attendance at Mecca -- Fatah leader Abbas and security strongman Mohammed Dahlan and the Hamas internal and external leaderships, Ismail Haniyya and Khaled Mesh’al. Saudi pressure for the sides to adhere to the agreements will be intense, especially in advance of the Arab League summit that Saudi Arabia will host at the end of March. That should provide a breathing space of several weeks that may be enough to stand the government on its feet. The Saudi pressure is likely to be backed up by a hard cash incentive. Other Arab leaders had also been getting antsy at the accusations of their own impotence in ending the internecine Palestinian strife. Egypt, Syria, Qatar, and Jordan had all been facilitating their own backchannels between the Palestinian parties. The Arab press has been almost unanimous in welcoming the agreement. (cont'd on site)

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

01-24-2007, 10:57 PM	#2
Paladin Ring of Famer Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 9,152	Interesting. It also highlights for me that the Sunni-Shiite confrontation is not over and will be acted out in Iraq whenever the "Coalition of the Willing" leave that sorry country. Because that is a sectarian civil war, I believe continuous American presence there is unwarranted.

01-24-2007, 11:35 PM	#3
Jetmeck Not a Chief's board Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 5,430	Agreed Paladin. As far as OPEC goes the last few years have been the only times they have stuck pretty much to quota anyway. I hope they do pump more and I hope I live to see this country using solar and wind power and OPEC can go to H$LL.

01-25-2007, 12:34 AM	#4
cutthemdown A verbis ad verbera Zimm to HOF Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Long Beach Posts: 32,882	I would think lower oil prices would also hurt Chavez in Venezuala. He has tied all of his programs to oil revenue.

01-25-2007, 09:33 AM	#6
Bronco_Beerslug Angling in the Deep Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Texas Riviera, Southern Mountains Posts: 24,281	This is the "favor" I was talking about in the Oil thread the Saudis were doing in return for our help on something they wanted not yet specified.

01-25-2007, 09:44 AM	#7
alkemical Guerrilla Ontologist rorrim\|mirror Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Future Posts: 42,723 Adopt-a-Bronco: Prima Materia	Ok. Yeah i didn't really "see" this side. I kept wondering why oil was falling though...

01-25-2007, 11:04 AM	#12
loborugger lost in the ether Did we finally get a FB??? Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: The 'cuse Posts: 5,793 Adopt-a-Bronco: Peyton Hillis	That and Bush called for doubling the size of the Strategic Oil Reserve during the State of the Union address. That should keep demand high even if supply is high. The Saudis may be doing us a favor, even if they dont mean to. Lowering oil prices would in turn cut revenue for two of the less appealing nations around - Iran and VZ. On that note, near my house, there is a corner near my house where an Exxon sits one side of the street while a Citgo sits on the other. I notice consistently that the Citgo is a couple pennies cheaper than the Exxon. Anyone else seeing that?

01-25-2007, 01:31 PM	#14
loborugger lost in the ether Did we finally get a FB??? Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: The 'cuse Posts: 5,793 Adopt-a-Bronco: Peyton Hillis	Citgo is owned by Chavez's govt. My guess is they are either 1. actually cheaper, or 2. keeping prices down to attract customers that are turned off by the Chavez Govt.

02-08-2007, 09:58 AM	#16
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 49,113	A couple of months ago, the Saudis said they would not sit on the sidelines while Shiites wiped out Sunnis in Baghdad. I guess this is what they meant.

02-08-2007, 10:30 AM	#17
alkemical Guerrilla Ontologist rorrim\|mirror Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Future Posts: 42,723 Adopt-a-Bronco: Prima Materia	They have their own bacon to worry about too. Last thing the royal family wants is to lose their power base and influence. Sort of funny in some ways.

02-16-2007, 04:49 PM	#21
yavoon Ring of Famer Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 10,260	the mecca deal is a joke. supposedly the "international community" cutoff the palestinians from aid(like the palestinians are entitled to hundreds of millions of dollars anyway) because the "new government" was a supporter of terrorism, and didnt recognize israel's right to exist. well this deal doesn't address any of those issues. I can see many deals like this in the future. just keep making deals and keep screaming that america/whoever wont respect ur right to get aid just because u like blowing up civilians in coffee shops.