Interesting difference in stats from Plummer to Cutler

[bpc]

Who was performing like the veteran here? Crazy. I didn't even think about it like this.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insid..._kc&id=2709641

[bpc]

If NFL playoff history teaches us anything, it isn't always the team with the greatest strengths that wins. It is often the team with the fewest weaknesses. With that thought in mind, I reviewed two AFC playoff contenders. One team has an uncorrected weakness and the other corrected its weakness by taking drastic action a month ago.

The team with the uncorrected weakness is San Diego. The offensive juggernaut from earlier this season has slowed down of late. San Diego's offense was putting up just over 33 points per game during the first 10 games, but over the last five games it is averaging 26.6 points per game. That second total is somewhat skewed by the 48-point explosion versus Denver in Week 14. Take that game out and the average drops down to just over 21 points.

One of the main reasons for the decrease is the performance of Philip Rivers. Rivers had a passer rating of 99.7 through the first 10 games. His passer rating over his last five games is only 70.4, and if the Denver game is removed, his rating drops to 57.1 over that period.

I reviewed the metrics of these games to find out why Rivers was doing so poorly. The main item that stood out was how Rivers did when faced with a blitz. In the past five games, when he was not facing a blitz, Rivers completed 57 of 119 attempts for 789 yards. Rivers tossed four touchdowns compared to zero interceptions, and his YPA was 6.7. These metrics are actually fairly solid.

However, when facing a blitz, Rivers completed only 8 of 28 attempts for 80 yards. He tossed two compared to three interceptions, and his YPA was 2.5. When the Denver game is removed, Rivers completed only 3 of 22 attempts for 30 yards against the blitz. He tossed zero touchdowns compared to three interceptions, and his YPA was 0.9.

The blitz plays only account for about 20 percent of Rivers' passes, yet all of his interceptions occurred when he had to stare down the barrel of a blitz. This problem has actually been getting worse of late, as Rivers has one completion for seven yards, two interceptions and an intentional grounding penalty in his last 17 passes against a blitz. The Chargers must find a way to fix this issue over the next couple of weeks, or it could lead to a very quick exit from the playoffs.

The team that has addressed a major weakness in the past month has been the Denver Broncos. It was thought that Mike Shanahan replaced Jake Plummer with Jay Cutler because of Plummer's high interception totals. Plummer's yards per attempt metrics show there may have been more to the story than just interceptions:

Jake Plummer
Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Short 185 133 970 3 4 2 11 5.3
Medium 61 28 494 4 4 1 18 8.4
Deep 44 14 530 4 3 3 40 13.0
Other 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Total 321 175 1994 11 11 6 69 6.4


Anything under six yards per attempt on short passes will rank a quarterback in the bottom half of the league, and Plummer was nearly a yard under that. Anything under 9.5 yards per attempt in medium passes is mediocre, and Plummer was also a yard below that figure. His deep pass YPA was quite good, but the short and medium inadequacies were more than offsetting the value of those deep passes.

Contrast his metrics with those of Jay Cutler:

Jay Cutler
Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Short 61 40 367 3 0 3 15 6.3
Medium 23 14 220 2 0 2 23 10.6
Deep 20 6 184 3 2 1 15 10.0
Other 6 0 0 0 2 0 0 0.0
Total 110 60 771 8 4 6 53 7.5


Cutler has been able to improve the short pass YPA by a yard and the medium pass YPA by over two yards. The tradeoff has been a reduction in deep pass YPA, but the overall effect has been a positive gain of over one yard in total YPA.

One of the reasons Cutler's YPA is much higher than Plummer's is that he has been able to integrate Tony Scheffler into the passing game. Scheffler had only caught six passes for 67 yards, for a meager 5.4 YPA, in the eight games he played with Plummer under center.

Scheffler already has nine receptions for 165 yards, and a 10.6 YPA, in the four games he has played with Cutler throwing him the ball. The lack of a No. 3 receiving option had been a huge weakness for Denver for the past couple of years, but Cutler's rapport with Scheffler could be solving that problem as well.

[Kaylore]

Could someone summarize the article for me?

[bpc]

Article posted.

[Kaylore]

So can we finally all agree that Cutler is the superior quarterback?

[bpc]

I'm just interested in the deep ball throwing where I would have thought Jay is easily superior in the low percentage throws... it isn't there where he beats Plummer though, its in the short to middle range throws where he really puts Jake away.

I knew that Cutler would open up the TE in our offense but Jake really was never accurate or had a strong enough arm to squeeze it in there.

Crazy play on the stats.

[-Slap-]

We can also assume San Diego screwed the pooch by dumping Brees for Rivers.

Sounds like to me like he sends a river of piss down his leg whenever you blitz him.

[elsid13]

Blitz the guy, nope let play a cover 3 or cover 2 and really confusing him

[OrangeShadow]

Basically teams are starting to figure out rivers while cutler is taking off and has enough skill and arm strength to beat teams even after they figure him out

[SoonerBronco]

Originally Posted by -Slap-

We can also assume San Diego screwed the pooch by dumping Brees for Rivers.

Sounds like to me like he sends a river of piss down his leg whenever you blitz him.

Then he whines like a little beeeoootch afterward....

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

[azbroncfan]

Originally Posted by elsid13

Blitz the guy, nope let play a cover 3 or cover 2 and really confusing him

Denver blitz him in game 1 but decided to keep using same blitz and SD adjusted and Coyer didn't. Why put EE on LT man to man is beyond me.

[bpc]

Our methods in the 1st game were fine. We pressured Rivers into an INT for a TD. Then when they hit the hot route with LT we went into a shell... better yet we bent over and grabbed our ankles. We had SD down 24-7 and the only reason we didn't win that game is because our offense resembled Jake's trembling confidence... he couldn't catch a simple shotgun snap.

I would have had no doubt in that case that Jay would have led us to more points, more touchdowns... and a victory.

Well, we could have a 3rd game to get it right. Hopefully we get the chance.

[RhymesayersDU]

Interesting stuff. When I read "uncorrected weakness," I was sure it was going to be about Indy and their run defense, or lack thereof.

As much as I'd like us to go deep in the playoffs, that's probably not realistic. With that in mind, I'd love to see Indy go to San Diego, just to see LT rack up literally 400 yards on the ground.

[Man-Goblin]

The article mentions that Scheffler has become the viable no. 3 receiver the Broncos had lacked in the past. I don't neccessarily agree with that because his production over the past four games hasn't been too much more than Putzier's over the two previous seasons. What the article should have stated is that the emergence of Brandon Marshall has given the Broncos 3 viable WRs to go along with quality TE play. But the author is correct to give Cutler credit for using his options more effectively than Plummer. It really has been been night and day since he took over for Plummer.

Also, on the surface it's surprising that Plummer's deep pass average is so high. But it probably has more to do with the fact that the Broncos hardly ever went deep with him under center.

[elsid13]

Originally Posted by azbroncfan

Denver blitz him in game 1 but decided to keep using same blitz and SD adjusted and Coyer didn't. Why put EE on LT man to man is beyond me.

There are time that I miss Greg Robinson. Image the crap that he would throw at opponent with speed Denver has now at LB and Champ/DWill/Foxworth/Paymah in secondary.

[El Minion]

Originally Posted by bpc

If NFL playoff history teaches us anything, it isn't always the team with the greatest strengths that wins. It is often the team with the fewest weaknesses. With that thought in mind, I reviewed two AFC playoff contenders. One team has an uncorrected weakness and the other corrected its weakness by taking drastic action a month ago.

The team with the uncorrected weakness is San Diego. The offensive juggernaut from earlier this season has slowed down of late. San Diego's offense was putting up just over 33 points per game during the first 10 games, but over the last five games it is averaging 26.6 points per game. That second total is somewhat skewed by the 48-point explosion versus Denver in Week 14. Take that game out and the average drops down to just over 21 points.

One of the main reasons for the decrease is the performance of Philip Rivers. Rivers had a passer rating of 99.7 through the first 10 games. His passer rating over his last five games is only 70.4, and if the Denver game is removed, his rating drops to 57.1 over that period.

I reviewed the metrics of these games to find out why Rivers was doing so poorly. The main item that stood out was how Rivers did when faced with a blitz. In the past five games, when he was not facing a blitz, Rivers completed 57 of 119 attempts for 789 yards. Rivers tossed four touchdowns compared to zero interceptions, and his YPA was 6.7. These metrics are actually fairly solid.

However, when facing a blitz, Rivers completed only 8 of 28 attempts for 80 yards. He tossed two compared to three interceptions, and his YPA was 2.5. When the Denver game is removed, Rivers completed only 3 of 22 attempts for 30 yards against the blitz. He tossed zero touchdowns compared to three interceptions, and his YPA was 0.9.

The blitz plays only account for about 20 percent of Rivers' passes, yet all of his interceptions occurred when he had to stare down the barrel of a blitz. This problem has actually been getting worse of late, as Rivers has one completion for seven yards, two interceptions and an intentional grounding penalty in his last 17 passes against a blitz. The Chargers must find a way to fix this issue over the next couple of weeks, or it could lead to a very quick exit from the playoffs.

The team that has addressed a major weakness in the past month has been the Denver Broncos. It was thought that Mike Shanahan replaced Jake Plummer with Jay Cutler because of Plummer's high interception totals. Plummer's yards per attempt metrics show there may have been more to the story than just interceptions:

Jake Plummer
Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Short 185 133 970 3 4 2 11 5.3
Medium 61 28 494 4 4 1 18 8.4
Deep 44 14 530 4 3 3 40 13.0
Other 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Total 321 175 1994 11 11 6 69 6.4


Anything under six yards per attempt on short passes will rank a quarterback in the bottom half of the league, and Plummer was nearly a yard under that. Anything under 9.5 yards per attempt in medium passes is mediocre, and Plummer was also a yard below that figure. His deep pass YPA was quite good, but the short and medium inadequacies were more than offsetting the value of those deep passes.

Contrast his metrics with those of Jay Cutler:

Jay Cutler
Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Short 61 40 367 3 0 3 15 6.3
Medium 23 14 220 2 0 2 23 10.6
Deep 20 6 184 3 2 1 15 10.0
Other 6 0 0 0 2 0 0 0.0
Total 110 60 771 8 4 6 53 7.5


Cutler has been able to improve the short pass YPA by a yard and the medium pass YPA by over two yards. The tradeoff has been a reduction in deep pass YPA, but the overall effect has been a positive gain of over one yard in total YPA.

One of the reasons Cutler's YPA is much higher than Plummer's is that he has been able to integrate Tony Scheffler into the passing game. Scheffler had only caught six passes for 67 yards, for a meager 5.4 YPA, in the eight games he played with Plummer under center.

Scheffler already has nine receptions for 165 yards, and a 10.6 YPA, in the four games he has played with Cutler throwing him the ball. The lack of a No. 3 receiving option had been a huge weakness for Denver for the past couple of years, but Cutler's rapport with Scheffler could be solving that problem as well.

After watching Rivers the past few weeks I was thinking the same thing, Rivers is regressing:

CAT G Att Comp Pct Yds YPA Lg TD Int 1st 1st % 20+ Sac Rate
SEPTEMBER GAMES 2 46 33 71.7 343 7.46 38 2 0 19 57.6 4 0 107.4
OCTOBER GAMES 5 164 106 64.6 1193 7.27 57 8 3 61 57.5 14 10 94.9
NOVEMBER GAMES 4 121 76 62.8 904 7.47 51 5 3 44 57.9 11 8 89.0
DECEMBER GAMES 4 105 50 47.6 717 6.83 55 5 2 30 60.0 10 7 78.2

[Man-Goblin]

Originally Posted by bpc

Our methods in the 1st game were fine. We pressured Rivers into an INT for a TD. Then when they hit the hot route with LT we went into a shell... better yet we bent over and grabbed our ankles. We had SD down 24-7 and the only reason we didn't win that game is because our offense resembled Jake's trembling confidence... he couldn't catch a simple shotgun snap.

I would have had no doubt in that case that Jay would have led us to more points, more touchdowns... and a victory.

Well, we could have a 3rd game to get it right. Hopefully we get the chance.

The most distressing part about the article, though, is that second game against the Broncos was the exception to Rivers' performance over the past 5 games. That doesn't bode well if the Broncos get their re-rematch.

[Mile High Shack]

Originally Posted by El Minion

After watching Rivers the past few weeks I was thinking the same thing, Rivers is regressing:

CAT G Att Comp Pct Yds YPA Lg TD Int 1st 1st % 20+ Sac Rate
SEPTEMBER GAMES 2 46 33 71.7 343 7.46 38 2 0 19 57.6 4 0 107.4
OCTOBER GAMES 5 164 106 64.6 1193 7.27 57 8 3 61 57.5 14 10 94.9
NOVEMBER GAMES 4 121 76 62.8 904 7.47 51 5 3 44 57.9 11 8 89.0
DECEMBER GAMES 4 105 50 47.6 717 6.83 55 5 2 30 60.0 10 7 78.2

I don't think he is regressing, rather teams are focusing on taking him out of the game rather than LT and the results are rather good

LT will get his yards, but w/o a passing game, the offense is going to stumble

amazing Coyer couldn't figure that out

[400HZ]

Originally Posted by El Minion

After watching Rivers the past few weeks I was thinking the same thing, Rivers is regressing:

CAT G Att Comp Pct Yds YPA Lg TD Int 1st 1st % 20+ Sac Rate
SEPTEMBER GAMES 2 46 33 71.7 343 7.46 38 2 0 19 57.6 4 0 107.4
OCTOBER GAMES 5 164 106 64.6 1193 7.27 57 8 3 61 57.5 14 10 94.9
NOVEMBER GAMES 4 121 76 62.8 904 7.47 51 5 3 44 57.9 11 8 89.0
DECEMBER GAMES 4 105 50 47.6 717 6.83 55 5 2 30 60.0 10 7 78.2

The article left out the fact that Rivers has been without his number 1, 2, and 4 receiver the past few games as well. At this point his receiving options boil down to either Gates or Vincent Jackson deep. When teams blitz, Gates has to stay in for pass protection. Jackson usually doesn't have time to get deep if teams blitz. It's pretty simple actually. The first part of the season Rivers was getting great production out of Eric Parker and Keenan McKardell, but both have been banged up. Nobody is too worried though. Rivers is a ****ing madman in the 4th quarter no matter the circumstances, and Parker and McKardell should both be healthy by playoff time.

[Garcia Bronco]

Originally Posted by 400HZ

The article left out the fact that Rivers has been without his number 1, 2, and 4 receiver the past few games as well. At this point his receiving options boil down to either Gates or Vincent Jackson deep. When teams blitz, Gates has to stay in for pass protection. Jackson usually doesn't have time to get deep if teams blitz. It's pretty simple actually. The first part of the season Rivers was getting great production out of Eric Parker and Keenan McKardell, but both have been banged up. Nobody is too worried though. Rivers is a ****ing madman in the 4th quarter no matter the circumstances, and Parker and McKardell should both be healthy by playoff time.

I hear you. Losing your normal/more talented guys hurts the QB position. He still has to make it work in the end though. I said earlier this season that this is SD's best chance to win a Super Bowl, because starting next year we're going to win it two in a row...maybe 3. So Rivers better get it done this year, because after that...it's over.

[400HZ]

Originally Posted by Garcia Bronco

I hear you. Losing your normal/more talented guys hurts the QB position. He still has to make it work in the end though. I said earlier this season that this is SD's best chance to win a Super Bowl, because starting next year we're going to win it two in a row...maybe 3. So Rivers better get it done this year, because after that...it's over.

Lol I don't see why it would be over for San Diego next year. They have the youngest roster in the AFCW AND the most cap space by far. What's your reasoning?

[Garcia Bronco]

Originally Posted by 400HZ

Lol I don't see why it would be over for San Diego next year. They have the youngest roster in the AFCW AND the most cap space by far. What's your reasoning?

It's very simple...we are better and we own you.

[Broncos4tw]

Short to medium means third down conversions. I'll take that.

Jay has a stronger arm, that's a given. I think he has better vision, which is hilarious, considering how long he has been in the league vs. Jake. He sees more receivers, and doesn't just dump it one yard when the primary isn't open.

He is just as cool and collected. And he can actually play from the pocket. He is going to be something special.

[400HZ]

Originally Posted by Garcia Bronco

It's very simple...we are better and we own you.

Hehe well you'll have a shot next year, but certainly not this year