Playoff Scenarios

[SportinOne]

I'm scouring over the standings right now and it's amazing to me how many teams are still in this race. A few weeks ago it looked like it was down to 9 teams for 6 playoff spots, with the Jets certain to fall off. The Jets have gotten stronger and there are now 12 teams involved. 3 have already made it. So we have 9 teams going for 3 spots.

The one thing that is absolutely HUGE when considering tiebreakers for the wildcards is that divisional records cancel teams out before deciding tiebreakers between conference opponents. So when it's all said and done, no matter what, 4 teams will be compared to each other for the final two spots in a tie breaker situation. One from each division. Should the 5 seed seperate itself from the 6, it will be 4 teams going for 1 spot.

I don't know really where to start, but i'd like to start posting various playoff clinching scenarios involving us winning or losing next week. I know i know, we need to win and not worry about anything else.. But the Bengals might be a tall order for the rookie. We'll see. For now, i'll start off with this scenario.

Denver can clinch a playoff birth by winning against Cinci and winning against San Francisco.

- This applies EVEN IF CINCI BEATS INDY AND PITTSBURGH. Both Denver and Cinci would get in by virtue of Conference Record over Jacksonville and NYJ even if both JAX and NYJ won out. Denver would then be the 5 seed by virtue of head to head matchup over Cinci.

[Paladin]

Still too many possibilities. My head hurts when you got so many of those. Let's keep it simple. If Denver wins next week, the chances of making the playoffs get better. Not guaranteed, but better. Therefor, I'd like to see Cinnci lose tomorrow, but Denver would still need to win their next game.

[atomicbloke]

if we lose to cincy (not saying we will), is there any combination of results, by which we can still get in?

ofcourse, i think we'll beat cincy in a shootout and jay cutler will have a chance to be the man.....

[TheChamp24]

If we lose to Cincy, I imagine we would want them to be the sure bet #5 seed and the other teams in the hunt, no better than 9-7. If that happens, all the other teams will have a worse AFC conference record than us, and we would get in. Unless Kansas City is one of those 9-7 teams with us. Basically, what we are hoping for is this:
Tomorrow night: Cincy loss, pushing them to 8-6
Next week's games:
Oakland defeats KC, virtually eliminating KC
Buffalo to defeat Titans, virtually eliminating Titans
New England defeating Jacksonville, pushing them to 8-7
Dolphins defeating Jets, pushing them to 8-7
And of course, a win against Cincy, making us 9-6, them 8-7
If all of those happen, we are in. KC, TN, Jets, Jacksonville couldn't touch our AFC record and we'd have the head to head over Cincy
IMO, if we win next week, we have a very, very good shot at getting in. Winning out assures us of a playoff spot.

[baja]

Home games - Cutler feeling it, we should win out.

[dragondawg]

since kc lost, then we just have to win the next 2 games and we're in

[SportinOne]

The one catch is that we CANNOT tie with KC because they have a better division record unless they lose to Oakland.

here's one with us losing to cinci.

Scenario #2

Denver clinches 6 seed with: 1. Loss vs. Cinci 2. Win vs. San Fran 3. Jax beats KC and loses to New England 4. Jets lose one game

This seems to be the simplest way to get in with a loss against Cinci. And it's really not crazy at all.

[NFLBRONCO]

Jets

@ Miami
Oakland

Cin

@ Indy
@ Den
Pitt

Jax

NE
@ KC

KC

@ Oak
Jax

[SprintRightOption]

We are winning these 2 home games!!!

Don't worry about getting in with a loss.

[Garcia Bronco]

It's very simple....win and we're in

[Rascal]

Cheer for Indy this weekend.

[ward63]

Originally Posted by Garcia Bronco

It's very simple....win and we're in

Exactly....and personally, I'd rather find a way and play the Colts in the first round.

[Paladin]

Originally Posted by Rascal

Cheer for Indy this weekend.

Wash your mouth out!!

Unfortunately, you are correct....

[ludo21]

Win out baby!!!

Amazing how faces have turned and many are back into the season after a win!

Gotta love it! Cincy is going to be a tough game, but we can beat them, just gotta bench DW again

[epicSocialism4tw]

Best case scenario:

Denver wins out, ends up 10-6 and takes the #5 seed.

We want the Pats.

[Sassy]

Originally Posted by ludo21

Win out baby!!!

Amazing how faces have turned and many are back into the season after a win!

Gotta love it! Cincy is going to be a tough game, but we can beat them, just gotta bench DW again

There ya go! Since I didn't see the game, I didn't realize he had been benched...but come to think of it...I never heard his name either

[chickennob2]

For Tiebreakers between teams in the same division:
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

For Tiebreakers between 2 non-division teams:
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

For Tiebreakers between 3 teams:
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.



Notice how Conference record is more important than common opponent in non-divisional ties, yet common opponent is more important in division ties. Also, if there is a 3-or-more-way tie, only one team from each division has a shot at it.



I came up with this useful chart. You have
TEAM NAME (record) (head-to-head tiebreakers) [Coference Losses] {division record}
Teams Left to play

These are current standings:


Cinci (8-5) (Beat: KC, Pit) Conf Losses: [3] North{4-1}
Left: Ind. Den, Pitt

--------------------

DEN (8-6) (Beat: Pit) Conf Losses:[4] West{3-3}
left: Cinci, SF

--------------------





JAX (8-6) (Beat: Pit, Buf, NYJ) Conf Losses:[5] South{2-4}
Left: NE, KC

--------------------

NYj (8-6) (Beat: Ten Lost: JAX) Conf Losses: [5] East{3-2}
Left: Miami, Oak

--------------------

BUF (7-7) (Beat: Jax) Conf Losses: [5] East{3-3}
left: Ten, Balt

--------------------

Pitt (7-7) (Beat: KC Lost: Jax, Cin, Den) Conf Losses: [6] North{2-2}
left: Balt, Cinci

--------------------

TEN (7-7) (Lost: Nyj) conf Losses:[6] South{4-2}
left: Buf, NE

--------------------

KC (7-7) (Lost: Cin, Pit) Conf Losses: [7] West{3-2}
left: Oak, Jax

--------------------



With the Chiefs losing and Denver winning, The Broncos are in control of their own destiny. IF we win out, we are in as the number 5 seed. That is the PERFECT situation the way things stand currently, as that would mean a trip to New England for the wild card round. Mr. Brady, Mr. Bailey, I believe you've met...




Pittsburgh currently has the edge on Tennessee based on head-to-head. When Pitt plays Blatimore again, they will have the required 4 games against common opponents (Mia, jax, Balt). Currently Tenn is 1-3 in those games and Pit is 1-2. Thus a Pittsburgh win against Baltimore givs them the edge. A Pittsburgh loss eliminates them.


To get in: these predictions assume all teams win all games unless stated otherwise. Impossibilities (ie Den and Cinci cant both win out) have been accounted for and may not be mentioned.


On most of these, I gave up at a certain point where i was unable to continue my calculations. But here at least is a way that each team can get in.


Cinci If they win out, they are in at the number 5 spot.
If they drop one game at either Indy or Pitt, they maintain their position at the 5 spot.
If they lose only to Denver and Denver wins out, they are at the 6 spot.
Losing one game cannot eliminate Cincinnatti.

Denver If they win out, they are in at the number 5 spot.
If they lose one game to SF, a Jax or Nyj loss and a KC loss will put Denver in the playoffs at the 6 spot. If Jax, Nyj, and KC all lose, Denver is in the 5 spot.
If they lose one game to Cinci, a Jax, Nyj, and KC loss will put them in at the 6 spot.

Jax If they win out, Cinci must lose 2 or Denver must lose 1
If they lose a game, TEN must lose a game or Jax is elminated
Further calculations are beyond me at this point in time

Nyj If they win out, (Jax and Den lose) or (Jax lose and Cinci lose 2) or (Den Lose and Cinci lose 2)
If they lose one, BUF must lose to TEN or they are eliminated
Further calculations are beyond me at this point in time

BUf If they win out, (Jax, Den lose, Nyj lose to Mia) they are in the 6 spot

Pitt If they win out, Cinci must NOT lose 2, or they are elminated (0,1, or 3 losses are acceptable). Denver must lose, Jax must lose, Jets must lose to Oak, they take the 6 spot

Ten If they win out, Jax must lose, Cinci must NOT lose 2, (Den lose and KC win out) or (Den lose 2), Pit must lose, and they take the 6 spot.

KC If they win out, Cin must NOT lose 2, Den must lose, Jax must lose, Jets lose 2, Buf must lose, TEN must lose






I jsut tried to figure this out myself. i apologize for all mistakes.

As always, if there are ANY errors, PLEASE correct me.


EDIT: Come on mods, why did you merge this? This post is a way that every team can get in, this thread thus far has involved only Broncos scenarios. These are clearly two different topics.