|
11-23-2006, 09:50 AM
|
#1 |
|
Ring of Famer
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 12,424
|
Football Outsiders Accidently Gives Props/Abuse to Broncos Jay Cutler
Accidently because he wasn't a Bronco yet.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=3774 College Quarterbacks Through the Prism of Statistics 3/23/2006 Guest column by David Lewin At the top of the NFL draft, every general manager dreams of finding the next Peyton Manning or John Elway, but fears he will end up with the next Joey Harrington or Akili Smith. With that balance of high risk and high reward in mind, there has been plenty of debate about which of this year’s big three quarterback prospects will make the best pro. Conventional wisdom says that Matt Leinart is the most accomplished of the three. In the aftermath of the Rose Bowl, Vince Young was all the rage. Some scouts believe that dark horse Jay Cutler will end up better than both of them. Everyone knows that in football, statistical analysis is no substitute for scouting, but it can be useful as an addition to scouting. And since scouting has been particularly iffy when dealing with first round quarterbacks — how’s Ryan Leaf these days? — there is a need for a system that could use college statistics to identify players who are more or less likely to become quality NFL starters. Analysis of college numbers has been a goal of Football Outsiders since its inception, and in the upcoming book Pro Football Prospectus 2006 it will become a reality for the first time. PFP 2006 will introduce a rookie quarterback projection system which uses regression analysis to determine which college statistics indicate that a quarterback will be successful in the NFL, with success measured by Football Outsiders’ DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) statistics (explained here). College statistics are accumulated in widely different offensive systems against a wide variety of competition, but they are not meaningless when it comes to predicting NFL success. Based on my research, the two most predictive college statistics are completion percentage and games started. Some people have previously looked at college completion percentages, but adding games started to the analysis improves the results significantly. Without games started, for example, statistical analysis would not identify Brett Favre and Dan Marino as top prospects. (There are other factors that help predict quarterback success, of course, like the quality of the NFL team drafting each player.) This projection system has been very accurate for quarterbacks drafted over the past ten years. As of now, the projection system only considers quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds. Quarterbacks taken later in the draft are much less likely to have the talent needed to succeed as an NFL starter, and they are much less likely to get an opportunity to prove themselves. For all the NCAA records that Kliff Kingsbury set at Texas Tech, he has completed just one NFL pass. His numbers were inflated by Texas Tech’s system, and he lacks the talent to be an NFL starter. That is why he was drafted in the sixth round, and that is why we have scouts. With these limitations in mind, here’s a preview of this research with a look at the big three quarterback prospects in this year’s draft, where they might end up, and how they might do once they get there. Jay Cutler Cutler is the most mysterious of this year’s top three quarterback prospects. For a while only SEC fans and draft addicts had heard of him, and then suddenly with no warning, Mel Kiper was calling him a potential top-ten pick and comparing him to Brett Favre. Look at Cutler’s resume, and the first thing that stands out is that he was a four-year starter. Some recent four-year starters coming out of college include Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees and Carson Palmer. That’s pretty good company. The second thing that stands out is that Cutler spent his whole career playing for a physically overmatched Vanderbilt team. This ought to be excellent preparation for the trials that usually await highly-drafted quarterbacks. During his career at Vanderbilt he showed himself to be a strong-armed, if only moderately accurate passer. Cutler has also been quite consistent over his four years. Kyle Boller was a four-year starter too, after all, and so far he’s been a bust. Like Cutler, Boller skyrocketed up draft boards due to a solid senior season and spectacular workouts. But Boller only completed 45 percent of passes prior to his senior year, and despite completing 53 percent as a senior finished his career under 50 percent. That’s not quite as bad as scoring a six on the Wonderlic, but it should still be a red flag for NFL general managers. Cutler, on the other hand, was a 56 percent passer heading into his senior year and completed 59 percent as a senior. Some critics still question Cutler’s accuracy, arguing that 59 percent as a senior is not really that impressive. The problem with this argument is that it does not consider the context of the numbers. Tim Couch completed 67 percent of his passes in college. At the time, scouts did not realize that Couch was playing for a certified offensive genius, Mike Leach, who now routinely produces 65+ percent passers at Texas Tech. In the decade before Cutler arrived, Vanderbilt’s starting quarterbacks completed 47.6 percent of their passes. For comparision, the quarterbacks before Leinart completed 59.6 percent of their passes, and those prior to Young completed 57.7 percent. This partially indicates that the quarterbacks who preceded Young and Leinart (Major Applewhite, Chris Simms, Carson Palmer, Rob Johnson) were more talented than those who preceded Cutler. But it also reflects the better talent and coaching surrounding quarterbacks at Texas and USC. It is obviously extremely difficult to be the quarterback of an overmatched team in the SEC. If Vanderbilt played in the MAC, for example, I suspect Cutler’s completion percentage would have been much higher, because Vanderbilt would have been playing teams of comparable quality. Given the system and situation at Vanderbilt, Cutler was actually quite accurate. He’s also quite athletic, with 1,256 college rushing yards. (Remember, sacks count as negative rushing yards in college, making this total even more impressive.) Cutler will end up being a top ten pick, but the question of where hinges on the Saints. Given the structure of Brees’ contract — which includes a $12 million option bonus due before the 2007 season — the Saints may still be in the market for a quarterback. With Brees on board, they can afford to take someone who is not ready to play right away. It follows that there is a good chance the Saints will swap spots with the Jets and take whatever quarterback makes it to them. The Jets will take their pick of Cutler and Leinart, with the other going to the Titans. The Saints could then draft Vince Young fourth and sit him for a year behind Brees. My projection system suggests that Cutler will perform somewhere along the lines of Drew Brees or Byron Leftwich (an average of about 2.5 points above replacement per game over the course of his career), and this does not even take into account his running ability. This would make him a solid top-5 choice. The quarterbacks who had the most similar college careers to Cutler in the past ten years are Shaun King and Jake Plummer. NOOOOOOOOOOOOO! WE ARE DOOOOOOOOOOOOMED  Looking a little farther back, Brett Favre and Dan Marino also had very similar college careers to Cutler. The Favre comparision is particularly interesting as he was overlooked because he did not come from a traditional football powerhouse. <<~Cool, maybe we're not boned after all! . . . For controversial predictions, you need to go to the second and third rounds. The system projects that Clemson’s Charlie Whitehurst will be a good pro, Bowling Green’s Omar Jacobs a solid starter, and Alabama’s Brodie Croyle a bust. But the most interesting projection is for a player who isn’t even in this year’s draft. According to this projection system, Philip Rivers will emerge as one of the top quarterbacks in the league over the next couple of years. It turns out that letting Drew Brees go to New Orleans may not have been a mistake after all. - Last edited by fontaine; 11-23-2006 at 09:53 AM.. |
|
|
| Sponsored Links |
|
11-23-2006, 10:55 AM
|
#2 |
|
The Enigma Prognosis
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Maryland
Posts: 17,925
Adopt-a-Bronco: Bryci |
Interesting article.
|
|
|
|
|
11-23-2006, 12:42 PM
|
#3 |
|
Ring of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,531
|
http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthr...26#post1036626
Looks like we'll find out sooner rather then later if there projections are going to be correct. Last edited by El Minion; 11-23-2006 at 12:46 PM.. |
|
|
|
|
11-23-2006, 03:25 PM
|
#4 |
|
There can only be one...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: The Peak of Good Living
Posts: 4,117
Adopt-a-Bronco: Nate Irving |
He forgot to mention the casts playing around said QBs...Who was Cutler throwing to his entire college carieer, who was Lienart throwing to, and finaly who was Young throwing to? Then when you find out who they are throwing to try and calculate the number of drops and subtract that from the passes attempted. Thats how you find out how accurate a guy realy is, if Jay puts a ball right on a guys numbers and he drops it thats not his fault.
|
|
|
|
|
11-23-2006, 03:34 PM
|
#5 | |
|
&
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,780
|
Quote:
The projection system they use is pretty good and the poster-boy for it is Phillip Rivers(who projected extremly high), who we all saw perform quite nicely last week. Again, it's not tools and phsyical makeup so much as production that is being evaluated here. So while the Jake and Shaun comparisons seem odd and misinformed right off the bat, I wouldn't be surprised to see them turn out accurately. And when they do I'm sure you will be content to chalk it up to those 17 dropped passes over 2 years that Jay had to endure. Which brings us back to square one. Yay. |
|
|
|
|
|
11-23-2006, 03:45 PM
|
#6 | |
|
There can only be one...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: The Peak of Good Living
Posts: 4,117
Adopt-a-Bronco: Nate Irving |
Quote:
If your WRs drop five balls a game and the end result is you completing 21 out of 30 instead of 26 out of 30 and this happens continualy over the course of four years, Yes it does make a difference. How many of the WRs that Young and Lienart have thrown to are or will be in the NFL? How about Jay? Phillip Rivers was the man at NC State but guess who his right hand man was...Jericho Cottchery. Hows Jericho doing in the NFL, have you heard his name on the highlights lately? Who else, oh thats right Koran Robinson...If that mother wasent such a moron he would be a star in the NFL, but he cant keep himself out of trouble and wont lay off the drugs. WRs who can make plays and have sure hands do effect a QBs completion percentage. |
|
|
|
|
|
11-23-2006, 05:01 PM
|
#7 | |
|
&
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,780
|
Quote:
1. Vanderbilt has weaker WRs than Bigger Schools 2. Weaker WRs drop 4 more passes a game than Better WRs 3. Therefore Jay actually has 44 unaccounted for completions each collegiate year Do you realize this would mean that Vanderbilt basically broke every NCAA record for receiving inadequacy during his tenure? WHY HAVE I NOT READ MORE ABOUT THIS!?!?! I'm gonna go out on a crazy Redwood limb and bet that before denver drafted Cutler you hadn't even seen a single Vanderbilt snap, which means you're basing this 'dropped' theory on some big-time sketchiness. |
|
|
|
|
|
11-23-2006, 05:10 PM
|
#8 | |
|
Ring of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 31,895
|
Quote:
I hadn't seen many Vanderbilt snaps either, but I do realize faster, more polished receivers (such as those found throughout the SEC) tend to get open more (and also more open) than guys who didn't even sniff the Combine. |
|
|
|
|
|
11-23-2006, 05:22 PM
|
#9 | |
|
There can only be one...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: The Peak of Good Living
Posts: 4,117
Adopt-a-Bronco: Nate Irving |
Quote:
|
|
|
|
|
|
11-23-2006, 05:26 PM
|
#10 |
|
helmet to helmet hitter
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Arlington, TX
Posts: 16,117
Adopt-a-Bronco: Joe Mays |
Cutler was SEC MVP as a virtual 1 man gang. Leinert was surrounded by a galaxy of future NFL players. Not that tough to attribute this as an advantage for Jay when it comes to trying to project the future...
|
|
|
|
|
11-23-2006, 07:01 PM
|
#11 | |
|
&
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,780
|
Quote:
WOW...you really thought my respone was SER---etc. The point is that results at the college level often translate quite accurately into the pro game. Cutler will be good next year, I have no doubt about that, but to say that Young et al. are largely beneficiaries of casts is missing out on the reason they landed in such spots as well. Jerry Rice had a bull**** qb I'm betting. Dude still put up 'the guady' regardless, div. II or no. Don't put too much stock in NCAA numbers and variables. |
|
|
|
|
|
11-23-2006, 07:03 PM
|
#12 | |
|
&
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,780
|
Quote:
Do you really believe Cutler would have performed astronomically better than Matt had he been at USC? You probably do, and yet we have no way to truly know this. |
|
|
|
|
 |
| Thread Tools | |
| Display Modes | |
|
Linear Mode
