The one key stat that explains the problem - The Orange Mane

elsid13 · 11-21-2006, 04:51 PM

I had a question in my mind last night, after reading all the threads about the time of possession was basically equal between Denver and San Diego, where did this offense rank in last couple of years when came to this stat.

And if if the TOP was in line with with those Denver teams in the past which were top offensive powerhouses. And if you think about this really it is true indicator of how good the offense is, since Denver is a run oriented West Coast Offense designed to control the ball game and limit the opponents opportunities to score. (See it whole team thing)

Key Stats

Source Nfl.com/stat

2006 30:14 Minutes (13th in the league)
2005 32:37 (1st)
2004 32:30 (2nd)
2003 33:53 (1st)

It seems to me the coaching staff needs to figure out a way to fix this problem for Denver to be successfully and get back on track.

Kaylore · 11-21-2006, 04:54 PM

I'm assuming you meant "time of possession." You want to see a good stat the directly correlates with TOP? Look at our third down conversion percentage, particularly when we pass and that will tell you everything.

SureShot · 11-21-2006, 04:55 PM

You fix it by converting on 3rd down.

elsid13 · 11-21-2006, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaylore

I'm assuming you meant "time of possession." You want to see a good stat the directly correlates with TOP? Look at our third down conversion percentage, particularly when we pass and that will tell you everything.

Kayore I did, but it more then n 3rd down passing completion, it putting this offense in the place to be successful. And right now neither the coaches or Plummer are doing it. And if Cutler comes in that problem still needs to be solved.

OrangeShadow · 11-21-2006, 05:05 PM

the problems:Jake,no pass rush,the special teams. case closed.

Jason in LA · 11-21-2006, 05:16 PM

This is way too broad because there are many problems that goes into this one problem.

Kaylore · 11-21-2006, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elsid13

Kayore I did, but it more then n 3rd down passing completion, it putting this offense in the place to be successful. And right now neither the coaches or Plummer are doing it. And if Cutler comes in that problem still needs to be solved.

You tell me what the coaches are doing wrong and I'll explain why they did it. This isn't on a the coaches, they're doing the best they can with guys they have on the team.

watermock · 11-21-2006, 05:21 PM

Start Jay...the tribe has spoken.

Mile High Shack · 11-21-2006, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaylore

You tell me what the coaches are doing wrong and I'll explain why they did it. This isn't on a the coaches, they're doing the best they can with guys they have on the team.

that's why Coyer puts Lang on LT in a blitz situation

elsid13 · 11-21-2006, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mile High Shack

that's why Coyer puts Lang on LT in a blitz situation

Lang had short range zone responsibility if watch the replay you can see Foxworth and Ferguson where responsible for over the top coverage and were complete out of position pre snap.

Mile High Shack · 11-21-2006, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elsid13

Lang had short range zone responsibility if watch the replay you can see Foxworth and Ferguson where responsible for over the top coverage and were complete out of position pre snap.

again

coaching

SoDak Bronco · 11-21-2006, 05:38 PM

Plummer Sucks Plummer Sucks Plummer Sucks

Taco John · 11-21-2006, 05:54 PM

Jake is 50% on third downs completing 43 of 86 attempts.

To contrast that, David Carr is 62% on third downs, completing 42 of 68 attempts.

Rookie, Matt Leinart is 52% on third downs, completing 35 of 67 attempts.

Rookie, Bruce radkowski is 53% on third downs, completing 39 of 74 attempts.

Philip Rivers is 65%, completing 57 of 87 attempts.

Tony Romo is an amazing 76% on third downs, completing an impressive 32 of 42. HOLY COW!

But then... Drew Bledsoe was 65% on third downs, completing 37 of 57. But still, Romo managed a full 11% improvement with the same players that Drew had.

In any case, Plummer's performance ranks among the rookies. It was the same story last year, when he completed only 50% of his third down opportunities (62 of 123). It's worth noting that Charlie Frye in 5 starts of his rookie season last year, completed 54% of his third down opportunities. And that's without Kellen Winslow or Braylon Edwards to throw to. This year, he's completing 59% of his third down tries.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, our defense is ranked 6th overall in stopping third down conversions, allowing 34.8%. That's an improvement from the year previous, where we finished 13th ranked in the league at 36.7% (which was better than the Pittsburgh defense, who gave up almost a full 40% on third downs. New England gave up 42 percent on third downs last year and ranked 29th in the league! That didn't matter to us though, because we only completed 4 of 14 third down tries against them in the playoffs. Thankfully, our defense held up though, and kept them to only 3 of 11. They weren't able to keep that up against Pittsburgh though, giving up 10 of 16 tries. Conversely, our offense only completed 5 of 11 third downs in that game.

To cut to the chase, I don't think time of possession is the "one key stat that explains the problem." I think third down conversion percentage is.

elsid13 · 11-21-2006, 06:11 PM

TJ

There is direct correlation between the two stats, but the TOP provide overall indicator of issue with the offense.

Rock Chalk · 11-21-2006, 07:32 PM

Jake Plummer 50%

David Carr 62%

Kubiak means nothing. Stick your heads in the sand you ****ign retards.

youcandoit1687 · 11-21-2006, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alec

Jake Plummer 50%

David Carr 62%

Kubiak means nothing. Stick your heads in the sand you ****ign retards.

you got some sand in your eyes...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taco John

It was the same story last year, when he completed only 50% of his third down opportunities (62 of 123).

broncogary · 11-21-2006, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alec

Jake Plummer 50%

David Carr 62%

Kubiak means nothing. Stick your heads in the sand you ****ign retards.

The only thing I can figure is the **** stands for "fore."

Taco John · 11-21-2006, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alec

Jake Plummer 50%

David Carr 62%

Kubiak means nothing. Stick your heads in the sand you ****ign retards.

I'll never understand why you feel the need to berate people. I'm sure it's some sort of compensation mechanism, but I don't understand why you feel you need the crutch.

In any rate, you're absolutely right that Kubiak is a great quarterback coach. Consider that last year, Carr was sitting with a 53% third down conversion rating (which is better than what Jake had last year WITH Kubiak -- go figure). That's almost a full 10% improvement that Kubes is getting out of Carr. Impressive.

youcandoit1687 · 11-21-2006, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taco John

I'll never understand why you feel the need to berate people. I'm sure it's some sort of compensation mechanism, but I don't understand why you feel you need the crutch.

In any rate, you're absolutely right that Kubiak is a great quarterback coach. Consider that last year, Carr was sitting with a 53% third down conversion rating (which is better than what Jake had last year WITH Kubiak -- go figure). That's almost a full 10% improvement that Kubes is getting out of Carr. Impressive.

sounds like it just translates into carr being younger and absorbing more of what kubes tells him. any chance you could pull up plummer's third down efficiency pre-kubeS?

Kaylore · 11-21-2006, 08:26 PM

Kubiak is awesome. I believe he will be able to turn the Texans around after a few years of getting the guys they need. It will take him at least two offseasons to clean up that mess, but between Mario, DeMeco Ryans and Carr they have a good core group of players to build their team around.

elsid13 · 11-21-2006, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaylore

Kubiak is awesome. I believe he will be able to turn the Texans around after a few years of getting the guys they need. It will take him at least two offseasons to clean up that mess, but between Mario, DeMeco Ryans and Carr they have a good core group of players to build their team around.

Kubiak and Smith have learned how to do the right thing when comes to a team. I bet the next 1st draft choice for them will another DE to go opposite Mario.

broncogary · 11-21-2006, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elsid13

Kubiak and Smith have learned how to do the right thing when comes to a team. I bet the next 1st draft choice for them will another DE to go opposite Mario.

Hahaha! Smith was working for the Broncos when the Texans drafted Mario.

elsid13 · 11-21-2006, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by broncogary

Hahaha! Smith was working for the Broncos when the Texans drafted Mario.

I known, but Kubiak had input to that decision. I am sure that Smith and Kubes are on the same page for what need on that team. Moses or Adams opposite William will help them against the completion in thier division.

Taco John · 11-21-2006, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by youcandoit1687

sounds like it just translates into carr being younger and absorbing more of what kubes tells him. any chance you could pull up plummer's third down efficiency pre-kubeS?

Hmmm... That's as easy as ESPN only has splits that go back to 2003. The NFL only has splits available for this year. You'd think they'd have an entire database available that spans at least 10 years, but no dice.

In any case, here's what I dug up.

In 2002, his last year with the Cardinals, Jake completed 86 of 168 on 3rd down attempts (they combine them for some reason). This is a 50% conversion percentage Pre-Kubiak. The following year with Kubiak, he was at 56%.

I can't find any splits earlier than 2000, unfortunately, but here's what I did find:

Pre-Kubiak:
2000 - 63% third downs
2001 - 54% third downs
2002 - 51% third downs

Post-Kubiak
2003 - 56% third downs
2004 - 52% third downs
2005 - 50% Third downs
2006 - 50% Third downs (to date)

Over the length of his career: 53% on third downs

Over the last 3 years: 50.7% on third downs

You can view his career situational stats here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/...YF?year=career

Use the drop down at the top to change years.

broncogary · 11-21-2006, 08:46 PM

I don't know that they learned to draft DE's with the Broncos. Or maybe they see the mistakes that the Broncos made.

11-21-2006, 04:51 PM	#1
elsid13 Lost In Space Bóg, Honor, Ojczyzna Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: DC Posts: 19,087	The one key stat that explains the problem I had a question in my mind last night, after reading all the threads about the time of possession was basically equal between Denver and San Diego, where did this offense rank in last couple of years when came to this stat. And if if the TOP was in line with with those Denver teams in the past which were top offensive powerhouses. And if you think about this really it is true indicator of how good the offense is, since Denver is a run oriented West Coast Offense designed to control the ball game and limit the opponents opportunities to score. (See it whole team thing) Key Stats Source Nfl.com/stat 2006 30:14 Minutes (13th in the league) 2005 32:37 (1st) 2004 32:30 (2nd) 2003 33:53 (1st) It seems to me the coaching staff needs to figure out a way to fix this problem for Denver to be successfully and get back on track. Last edited by elsid13; 11-21-2006 at 04:53 PM..

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

11-21-2006, 04:54 PM	#2
Kaylore 6-37, Raider fans. Yummy birds and snow! Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Ceti Alpha V Posts: 41,051 Adopt-a-Bronco: Wesley Duke	I'm assuming you meant "time of possession." You want to see a good stat the directly correlates with TOP? Look at our third down conversion percentage, particularly when we pass and that will tell you everything.

11-21-2006, 04:55 PM	#3
SureShot Te-believer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Paradise Divide Posts: 5,996 Adopt-a-Bronco: Matt Russell	You fix it by converting on 3rd down.

11-21-2006, 05:05 PM	#5
OrangeShadow armed and dangerous Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 6,771	the problems:Jake,no pass rush,the special teams. case closed.

11-21-2006, 05:16 PM	#6
Jason in LA Gimmie that rep fool! Speaking of Butts & Boob Mojo Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: LA Posts: 12,252	This is way too broad because there are many problems that goes into this one problem.

11-21-2006, 05:21 PM	#8
watermock "Hoodie Jr" "Hug me!" Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Hot Springs, Ouachitah Posts: 77,090	Start Jay...the tribe has spoken.

11-21-2006, 05:38 PM	#12
SoDak Bronco Lace em' up and lets go!! Von Miller aka QB Killa Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: South Dakota Posts: 4,132 Adopt-a-Bronco: Robert Ayers	Plummer Sucks Plummer Sucks Plummer Sucks

11-21-2006, 05:54 PM	#13
Taco John 24/7 Broncos In Elway I Trust Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 49,705 Adopt-a-Bronco: Peyton Manning	Jake is 50% on third downs completing 43 of 86 attempts. To contrast that, David Carr is 62% on third downs, completing 42 of 68 attempts. Rookie, Matt Leinart is 52% on third downs, completing 35 of 67 attempts. Rookie, Bruce radkowski is 53% on third downs, completing 39 of 74 attempts. Philip Rivers is 65%, completing 57 of 87 attempts. Tony Romo is an amazing 76% on third downs, completing an impressive 32 of 42. HOLY COW! But then... Drew Bledsoe was 65% on third downs, completing 37 of 57. But still, Romo managed a full 11% improvement with the same players that Drew had. In any case, Plummer's performance ranks among the rookies. It was the same story last year, when he completed only 50% of his third down opportunities (62 of 123). It's worth noting that Charlie Frye in 5 starts of his rookie season last year, completed 54% of his third down opportunities. And that's without Kellen Winslow or Braylon Edwards to throw to. This year, he's completing 59% of his third down tries. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, our defense is ranked 6th overall in stopping third down conversions, allowing 34.8%. That's an improvement from the year previous, where we finished 13th ranked in the league at 36.7% (which was better than the Pittsburgh defense, who gave up almost a full 40% on third downs. New England gave up 42 percent on third downs last year and ranked 29th in the league! That didn't matter to us though, because we only completed 4 of 14 third down tries against them in the playoffs. Thankfully, our defense held up though, and kept them to only 3 of 11. They weren't able to keep that up against Pittsburgh though, giving up 10 of 16 tries. Conversely, our offense only completed 5 of 11 third downs in that game. To cut to the chase, I don't think time of possession is the "one key stat that explains the problem." I think third down conversion percentage is.

11-21-2006, 06:11 PM	#14
elsid13 Lost In Space Bóg, Honor, Ojczyzna Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: DC Posts: 19,087	TJ There is direct correlation between the two stats, but the TOP provide overall indicator of issue with the offense.

11-21-2006, 07:32 PM	#15
Rock Chalk Cheeky Bastards Laus Deo Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: The Backside of the Internet Posts: 29,940 Adopt-a-Bronco: Chris Harris	Jake Plummer 50% David Carr 62% Kubiak means nothing. Stick your heads in the sand you ****ign retards.

11-21-2006, 08:26 PM	#20
Kaylore 6-37, Raider fans. Yummy birds and snow! Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Ceti Alpha V Posts: 41,051 Adopt-a-Bronco: Wesley Duke	Kubiak is awesome. I believe he will be able to turn the Texans around after a few years of getting the guys they need. It will take him at least two offseasons to clean up that mess, but between Mario, DeMeco Ryans and Carr they have a good core group of players to build their team around.

11-21-2006, 08:46 PM	#25
broncogary Horse Player and Dimwit Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 5,746	I don't know that they learned to draft DE's with the Broncos. Or maybe they see the mistakes that the Broncos made.