If Broncos can’t slow Colts, they’re toast - The Orange Mane

dragondawg · 10-26-2006, 10:28 PM

Denver may be able to run against Indy, but they don’t ever score

Sunday is a showdown between the AFC’s two best teams, but also a confrontation of conflicting styles and a measuring stick for both the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts.

It is, in other words, a game about many things, though it all revolves around one concept — offense vs. defense

The Colts have had one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses for years, which has continued this season despite the loss of running back Edgerrin James to free agency. They are third in total offense, Peyton Manning leads the NFL in QB rating and all AFC quarterbacks in touchdowns and yards.

The Broncos have always been a more balanced mix of offense and defense. Yet their success this season is due to one of the league’s stingiest defense, which allows only 7.3 points per game and has given up but two touchdowns in six games.

It has yet to pass the acid test, though. It failed that test in the playoffs in 2003 and 2004, when the Colts dismembered the Broncos by a combined score of 90-34. That has long irritated Denver’s veteran defensive coordinator Larry Coyer, which is why he is looking forward to the confrontation most teams might like to avoid — one with an offense that averages 28.5 points per game.

To make the contrast between the two approaches clearer consider these two facts: Denver has allowed only two touchdowns all season; the Colts' defense has held only two opponents to fewer than 17 points. When one adds in that Indianapolis' offense averages more than twice as many points as Denver's 13.2 per game, it leads to a classic question of physics — who wins out, the immovable object (Denver's defense) or the irresistible force (the Colts' offense)?

"I would think this is kind of what you live for,'' Coyer said. "I'm sure they feel the same way. Let's crank her up and go.''

The Broncos’ formula will be its usual mix — focus on run defense, try to reach the quarterback with a four-man rush instead of blitzing, run the ball conservatively on offense and, perhaps most of all, get the Colts off the field on third down. The Colts’ task to simply outscore a mediocre offensive team may seem simple, but Denver is a team that runs the ball like a tank battalion. It averages 143.3 yards a game and will be opposed by a Colt run defense that is last in the league in average yards per carry allowed (5.2) and next to last in rushing yards allowed (158 per game).

Thus, if Denver can limit Indianapolis' offensive chances by controlling the ball on the ground and limiting Manning on third down, the advantage in this early showdown for AFC supremacy would seem to lean its way.

"With the offense they have, letting them stay on the field to pick you apart on third down, it'll be a long game,'' said Denver's Demetrin Veal this week.

No kidding. One reason the Colts thrashed the Broncos is those two playoff meetings is that they converted 13-of-18 third-down attempts. That’s one of the Colts’ most telling stats. Indianapolis was tops in third-down conversions last season and are at the top of the list again this year at 57.3 percent (43-of-75), the only team in football over 50 percent. Yet in the seven games in which the Colts scored fewer than 20 points during Tony Dungy’s five-year tenure, that conversion rate is 36.8 percent.

That’s where the Broncos’ defense is focusing. It must not only stuff the run, but also harass Manning enough to disrupt the passing game, something they were singularly unable to do in those playoff losses.

"You pretty much know what the key is going into the game and that's to get to Peyton any way possible,'' admits Broncos' defensive back Sam Brandon. "You got to get there and get there quick.''

That's easier said than done. Manning has been sacked only seven times this season. If the Broncos can’t get to him, they may fall behind and not be able to rally. Denver has scored just seven touchdowns this season on 69 possessions.

Then again, the Denver defense has allowed only two touchdowns on 65 possessions and hasn’t allowed a team to reach double digits since its season opener. Can the Colts hang 28 on a defense like that?

We can move the ball, we can score points, we can do all the things that we want to do and not turn the ball over very much,'' said Colts' coach Tony Dungy. The numbers bear him out. Since his arrival in Indianapolis the Colts' turnovers have decreased (12, then 8, 8, 6) and just four this season (two lost fumbles, two interceptions).

Classic matchup of differing styles. The prevailing style will have the edge on home field advantage for the playoffs, while making a loud statement about its own ability to win playing the way it wants.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15432241/

Killericon · 10-26-2006, 10:35 PM

Noted Denver Sportswriter: "If the Broncos score less points than the Colts, they're going to have a hard time winning."

Sometimes I wonder how these people get paid to write this stuff.

Kaylore · 10-26-2006, 10:41 PM

Link?

Popps · 10-26-2006, 11:25 PM

The article might not be ground-breaking, but it makes a point that your average fan might miss. Teams that beat Indy don't do it with offense, they do it with defense. Certainly you want a balanced attack... but Pittsburgh shut them down with a stifling defense. In fact, their offense tried to hand the game away, their D secured the win.

This game represents everything we've been trying to do with the defense for the last three years. No one expects our defense to win it on their own, but if they come out and collapse against manning as they did in the last two playoff losses, it's going to be a massive blow to this team's psyche.

But, I don't think they will. I honestly have bought into this defense. Yes, they need to show it in a playoff game... but they've already done something they haven't been able to do in the past, which is dominate in very close, low-scoring games.

I can't wait to see this defense smash manning in the mouth.

Clockwork Orange · 10-26-2006, 11:30 PM

This certainly helped the Steelers cause that day. I'm almost certain it was deliberate.

fido · 10-26-2006, 11:32 PM

If the offense doesn't jell around plummer, it won't matter, because the colts will score.

Killericon · 10-26-2006, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Popps

The article might not be ground-breaking, but it makes a point that your average fan might miss. Teams that beat Indy don't do it with offense, they do it with defense. Certainly you want a balanced attack... but Pittsburgh shut them down with a stifling defense. In fact, their offense tried to hand the game away, their D secured the win.

This game represents everything we've been trying to do with the defense for the last three years. No one expects our defense to win it on their own, but if they come out and collapse against manning as they did in the last two playoff losses, it's going to be a massive blow to this team's psyche.

But, I don't think they will. I honestly have bought into this defense. Yes, they need to show it in a playoff game... but they've already done something they haven't been able to do in the past, which is dominate in very close, low-scoring games.

I can't wait to see this defense smash manning in the mouth.

That is a good point. I'm worried about Freeney...Is he matching up against whomever is replacing Lepsis, or Foster? Does it matter?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clockwork Orange

This certainly helped the Steelers cause that day. I'm almost certain it was deliberate.

I'm curious as to how much more money Vanderjagt has in a cayman bank account after that "miss".

Clockwork Orange · 10-26-2006, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by killericon

I'm curious as to how much more money Vanderjagt has in a cayman bank account after that "miss".

I don't think there was any money involved. I think he knew he was on his way out of Indy at seasons end and decided to give a big **** you to his buddy Peyton as a going away present.

Popps · 10-26-2006, 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by killericon

That is a good point. I'm worried about Freeney...Is he matching up against whomever is replacing Lepsis, or Foster? Does it matter?

Yea, I'm trying not to think about it. We'll obviously be committing a FB to Freeny, as well. But, that's got potential for ugly.

As for Foster, he's barely serviceable at RT. It's not like the good old days when we could just move Jones over when Zimm got hurt and still be in great shape.

We'll see how the back-ups respond. Losing Lepsis was just absolutely brutal.

Man, I remember a time when people were trying to run that guy out of town, too. Dude came a long way.

Killericon · 10-26-2006, 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Popps

Yea, I'm trying not to think about it. We'll obviously be committing a FB to Freeny, as well. But, that's got potential for ugly.

As for Foster, he's barely serviceable at RT. It's not like the good old days when we could just move Jones over when Zimm got hurt and still be in great shape.

We'll see how the back-ups respond. Losing Lepsis was just absolutely brutal.

Man, I remember a time when people were trying to run that guy out of town, too. Dude came a long way.

Wasn't that right after he cost TD his career?

Popps · 10-26-2006, 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clockwork Orange

I don't think there was any money involved. I think he knew he was on his way out of Indy at seasons end and decided to give a big **** you to his buddy Peyton as a going away present.

Keep in mind, that FG... Ben R's tackle, all of that nonsense would have happened if Bettis didn't have a bizarre, fluke goal-line fumble.

Made for an exciting ending, though.

Clockwork Orange · 10-27-2006, 12:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Popps

Keep in mind, that FG... Ben R's tackle, all of that nonsense would have happened if Bettis didn't have a bizarre, fluke goal-line fumble.

Made for an exciting ending, though.

And if the guy returning the fumble hadn't been stabbed by his old lady a day or two before the game, maybe he outruns Slothlisberger and goes to the end zone. Or if he cuts to the outside instead of the middle, he's home free. Lot of variables there.

That kick, however, seemed about as intentional a miss as you'll ever see. A guy with the highest FG percentage in NFL history kicking indoors and he misses by 100 feet? It almost looked like he was trying to hook that one into the Colts bench and hit Manning with it.

Orange_Beard · 10-27-2006, 05:44 AM

How many points will it take to win Sunday?

rbackfactory80 · 10-27-2006, 06:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orange_Beard

How many points will it take to win Sunday?

27

Mile High Shack · 10-27-2006, 06:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orange_Beard

How many points will it take to win Sunday?

more than Indy scores

brncs_fan · 10-27-2006, 06:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orange_Beard

How many points will it take to win Sunday?

........3

Our defense is good but I don't know if it is that good. Probably in the 20-27 range.

Mile High Shack · 10-27-2006, 06:22 AM

I do like how a lot of the experts are picking the Colts though, that is making me feel better

Orange_Beard · 10-27-2006, 06:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mile High Shack

more than Indy scores

Genius.

Bronco Bob · 10-27-2006, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orange_Beard

How many points will it take to win Sunday?

Broncos win by 10. 10 is the magic number.

eddie mac · 10-27-2006, 09:18 AM

10-0 then.

Jetmeck · 10-27-2006, 11:27 AM

TATER is gonna run wild SUNDAY, mark it down.

Bronco Billy · 10-27-2006, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jetmeck

TATER is gonna run wild SUNDAY, mark it down.

He better. We can't rely on the passing game to get it done. Just need to get started fast so Jake can play with the lead.

Jetmeck · 10-27-2006, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco Billy

He better. We can't rely on the passing game to get it done. Just need to get started fast so Jake can play with the lead.

GENIUS !

wabbit · 10-28-2006, 12:37 AM

You know what...I really think Shanahan has had enough of the play-off debacles from Indianapolis, and I'm betting he has some very interesting things cooked up for them this weekend.

They..whatever 'they' are... have to work, obviously, but Shanahan has a way of doubling back on teams (and coaches) that have troubled him, or even out-coached him in the past...i.e. Baltimore.

This weekend will be the proof positive in this instance, one way or another I suppose.

Popps · 10-28-2006, 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wabbit

You know what...I really think Shanahan has had enough of the play-off debacles from Indianapolis, and I'm betting he has some very interesting things cooked up for them this weekend.

They..whatever 'they' are... have to work, obviously, but Shanahan has a way of doubling back on teams (and coaches) that have troubled him, or even out-coached him in the past...i.e. Baltimore.

This weekend will be the proof positive in this instance, one way or another I suppose.

I think you could throw Belichick in that category. Remember how the world was abuzz with how Shanny was outcoached after that Monday night game a few years back? Shanahan has spanked him pretty good since then.... and in more important games.

Agree, though... it's going to be damned interesting. Like I posted before, I think this is sort of like taking a test you've been studying for for three years. This game has a lot of meaning beyond the W or L we'll have when its over.

10-26-2006, 10:28 PM	#1
dragondawg All Pro Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,009	If Broncos can’t slow Colts, they’re toast Denver may be able to run against Indy, but they don’t ever score Sunday is a showdown between the AFC’s two best teams, but also a confrontation of conflicting styles and a measuring stick for both the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts. It is, in other words, a game about many things, though it all revolves around one concept — offense vs. defense The Colts have had one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses for years, which has continued this season despite the loss of running back Edgerrin James to free agency. They are third in total offense, Peyton Manning leads the NFL in QB rating and all AFC quarterbacks in touchdowns and yards. The Broncos have always been a more balanced mix of offense and defense. Yet their success this season is due to one of the league’s stingiest defense, which allows only 7.3 points per game and has given up but two touchdowns in six games. It has yet to pass the acid test, though. It failed that test in the playoffs in 2003 and 2004, when the Colts dismembered the Broncos by a combined score of 90-34. That has long irritated Denver’s veteran defensive coordinator Larry Coyer, which is why he is looking forward to the confrontation most teams might like to avoid — one with an offense that averages 28.5 points per game. To make the contrast between the two approaches clearer consider these two facts: Denver has allowed only two touchdowns all season; the Colts' defense has held only two opponents to fewer than 17 points. When one adds in that Indianapolis' offense averages more than twice as many points as Denver's 13.2 per game, it leads to a classic question of physics — who wins out, the immovable object (Denver's defense) or the irresistible force (the Colts' offense)? "I would think this is kind of what you live for,'' Coyer said. "I'm sure they feel the same way. Let's crank her up and go.'' The Broncos’ formula will be its usual mix — focus on run defense, try to reach the quarterback with a four-man rush instead of blitzing, run the ball conservatively on offense and, perhaps most of all, get the Colts off the field on third down. The Colts’ task to simply outscore a mediocre offensive team may seem simple, but Denver is a team that runs the ball like a tank battalion. It averages 143.3 yards a game and will be opposed by a Colt run defense that is last in the league in average yards per carry allowed (5.2) and next to last in rushing yards allowed (158 per game). Thus, if Denver can limit Indianapolis' offensive chances by controlling the ball on the ground and limiting Manning on third down, the advantage in this early showdown for AFC supremacy would seem to lean its way. "With the offense they have, letting them stay on the field to pick you apart on third down, it'll be a long game,'' said Denver's Demetrin Veal this week. No kidding. One reason the Colts thrashed the Broncos is those two playoff meetings is that they converted 13-of-18 third-down attempts. That’s one of the Colts’ most telling stats. Indianapolis was tops in third-down conversions last season and are at the top of the list again this year at 57.3 percent (43-of-75), the only team in football over 50 percent. Yet in the seven games in which the Colts scored fewer than 20 points during Tony Dungy’s five-year tenure, that conversion rate is 36.8 percent. That’s where the Broncos’ defense is focusing. It must not only stuff the run, but also harass Manning enough to disrupt the passing game, something they were singularly unable to do in those playoff losses. "You pretty much know what the key is going into the game and that's to get to Peyton any way possible,'' admits Broncos' defensive back Sam Brandon. "You got to get there and get there quick.'' That's easier said than done. Manning has been sacked only seven times this season. If the Broncos can’t get to him, they may fall behind and not be able to rally. Denver has scored just seven touchdowns this season on 69 possessions. Then again, the Denver defense has allowed only two touchdowns on 65 possessions and hasn’t allowed a team to reach double digits since its season opener. Can the Colts hang 28 on a defense like that? We can move the ball, we can score points, we can do all the things that we want to do and not turn the ball over very much,'' said Colts' coach Tony Dungy. The numbers bear him out. Since his arrival in Indianapolis the Colts' turnovers have decreased (12, then 8, 8, 6) and just four this season (two lost fumbles, two interceptions). Classic matchup of differing styles. The prevailing style will have the edge on home field advantage for the playoffs, while making a loud statement about its own ability to win playing the way it wants. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15432241/ Last edited by dragondawg; 10-26-2006 at 10:53 PM..

10-26-2006, 11:30 PM	#5
Clockwork Orange Persona Non Grata I seen him! Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 21,438	This certainly helped the Steelers cause that day. I'm almost certain it was deliberate. Attached Images

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10-26-2006, 10:35 PM	#2
Killericon YES A DT!!!!!! Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: From Calgary, in Halifax for School Posts: 7,730 Adopt-a-Bronco: watermock	Noted Denver Sportswriter: "If the Broncos score less points than the Colts, they're going to have a hard time winning." Sometimes I wonder how these people get paid to write this stuff.

10-26-2006, 10:41 PM	#3
Kaylore 6-37, Raider fans. Yummy birds and snow! Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Ceti Alpha V Posts: 41,321 Adopt-a-Bronco: Wesley Duke	Link?

10-26-2006, 11:25 PM	#4
Popps TEAM FIRST. Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 29,792	The article might not be ground-breaking, but it makes a point that your average fan might miss. Teams that beat Indy don't do it with offense, they do it with defense. Certainly you want a balanced attack... but Pittsburgh shut them down with a stifling defense. In fact, their offense tried to hand the game away, their D secured the win. This game represents everything we've been trying to do with the defense for the last three years. No one expects our defense to win it on their own, but if they come out and collapse against manning as they did in the last two playoff losses, it's going to be a massive blow to this team's psyche. But, I don't think they will. I honestly have bought into this defense. Yes, they need to show it in a playoff game... but they've already done something they haven't been able to do in the past, which is dominate in very close, low-scoring games. I can't wait to see this defense smash manning in the mouth.

10-26-2006, 11:32 PM	#6
fido Perennial Pro-bowler Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: wyoming Posts: 750	If the offense doesn't jell around plummer, it won't matter, because the colts will score.

10-27-2006, 05:44 AM	#13
Orange_Beard Over Jay Cutler Todd Snider Rules! Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Leucadia, CA Posts: 7,836 Adopt-a-Bronco: Tony Scheffler	How many points will it take to win Sunday?

10-27-2006, 06:22 AM	#17
Mile High Shack Ring of Famer Cock-a-doodle-do Join Date: May 2001 Location: Somewhere Posts: 17,010	I do like how a lot of the experts are picking the Colts though, that is making me feel better

10-27-2006, 09:18 AM	#20
eddie mac Ireland's No1 Bronco Eddie Mac 87 gone but never forgott Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: IRELAND Posts: 15,573 Adopt-a-Bronco: Rod Smith	10-0 then.

10-27-2006, 11:27 AM	#21
Jetmeck Not a Chief's board Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 5,427	TATER is gonna run wild SUNDAY, mark it down.

10-28-2006, 12:37 AM	#24
wabbit Ring of Famer Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Aurora Posts: 5,449	You know what...I really think Shanahan has had enough of the play-off debacles from Indianapolis, and I'm betting he has some very interesting things cooked up for them this weekend. They..whatever 'they' are... have to work, obviously, but Shanahan has a way of doubling back on teams (and coaches) that have troubled him, or even out-coached him in the past...i.e. Baltimore. This weekend will be the proof positive in this instance, one way or another I suppose.