NK making direct threat now against US/Japan

[Hotrod]

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nati...7510111990.htm

By Lee Jin-woo
Staff Reporter
A Korean-Japanese scholar who is considered North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s unofficial spokesman said yesterday that Pyongyang has a hydrogen bomb it would test as part of a series of actions mentioned in its statement against the United States.

In an interview with MBC radio, Kim Myong-chol, director of the Center for Korean-American Peace, a Japan-based pro-North Korean research agency, said the Stalinist state is ready to test its H-bomb or conduct a nuclear test larger than its proclaimed test on Monday.

The North’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement Wednesday that it would respond with a series of physical measures if Washington steps up pressure on Pyongyang.

Asked to provide evidence that the North has developed its own thermonuclear weapons, Kim replied, ``That’s why we are going to test the bomb. A test will prove that we’ve got everything necessary just as we had with our nuclear weapons.’’

Kim blamed the United States and others who question the authenticity of Monday’s test for suspicions about whether the North actually possesses nuclear weapons. ``The United States, which initiated a war in Iraq on groundless claims of weapons of mass destruction, is raising absurd suspicions over the North’s nuclear tests,’’ he said.

The North will regard the United Nations resolution imposing sanctions, whether financial or military, as a declaration of war, he said.

``If the Bush administration makes more provocations, both New York City and Tokyo will be blazed,’’ Kim said. He added the North is targeting the United States but does not want to wage a war against the South as long as Seoul takes a neutral position.

Kim said he made his last visit to Pyongyang in January and has communicated with high-ranking North Korean officials on a regular basis, claiming that his remarks represent the ideas of Pyongyang.

``The destiny of the Korean Peninsula will be decided within a week, and South Korea should maintain its neutral stance,’’ he said in a KBS radio interview. ``Seoul should request that Washington not mobilize U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) even if a war breaks out.’’

The Ministry of Unification, however, downplayed Kim’s remarks.

``Kim is not trustworthy, and his claims should be ignored,’’ a ranking ministry official told The Korea Times.

MBC also expressed concern before airing the interview, which was recorded a few hours before the radio show, asking its listeners to consider Kim’s remarks as claims by some North Korean hardliners.

[defenseman]

If president Bush doesn't lay down a hard line deterrant policy pretty much right away on this malcontent, it's going to get damn interesting damn quick. I will say, starting a war with them is not an option at this point, they have the "bomb" and appear postured to use it presently..dman

[defenseman]

Originally Posted by Hotrod

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nati...7510111990.htm

By Lee Jin-woo
Staff Reporter
A Korean-Japanese scholar who is considered North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s unofficial spokesman said yesterday that Pyongyang has a hydrogen bomb it would test as part of a series of actions mentioned in its statement against the United States.

In an interview with MBC radio, Kim Myong-chol, director of the Center for Korean-American Peace, a Japan-based pro-North Korean research agency, said the Stalinist state is ready to test its H-bomb or conduct a nuclear test larger than its proclaimed test on Monday.

The North’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement Wednesday that it would respond with a series of physical measures if Washington steps up pressure on Pyongyang.

Asked to provide evidence that the North has developed its own thermonuclear weapons, Kim replied, ``That’s why we are going to test the bomb. A test will prove that we’ve got everything necessary just as we had with our nuclear weapons.’’

Kim blamed the United States and others who question the authenticity of Monday’s test for suspicions about whether the North actually possesses nuclear weapons. ``The United States, which initiated a war in Iraq on groundless claims of weapons of mass destruction, is raising absurd suspicions over the North’s nuclear tests,’’ he said.

The North will regard the United Nations resolution imposing sanctions, whether financial or military, as a declaration of war, he said.

``If the Bush administration makes more provocations, both New York City and Tokyo will be blazed,’’ Kim said. He added the North is targeting the United States but does not want to wage a war against the South as long as Seoul takes a neutral position.

Kim said he made his last visit to Pyongyang in January and has communicated with high-ranking North Korean officials on a regular basis, claiming that his remarks represent the ideas of Pyongyang.

``The destiny of the Korean Peninsula will be decided within a week, and South Korea should maintain its neutral stance,’’ he said in a KBS radio interview. ``Seoul should request that Washington not mobilize U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) even if a war breaks out.’’

The Ministry of Unification, however, downplayed Kim’s remarks.

``Kim is not trustworthy, and his claims should be ignored,’’ a ranking ministry official told The Korea Times.

MBC also expressed concern before airing the interview, which was recorded a few hours before the radio show, asking its listeners to consider Kim’s remarks as claims by some North Korean hardliners.

Honestly, North Korea appears postured to head into south Korea, if they do, they will be annihilated..dman

[Hotrod]

I saw on the news this morning that at 9pm local time NK turns off all electricty to the country except in Kim little dongs house. The whole freaking country goes lights out. I would think Kim "little dong's" house would be an easy target after 9pm

[enjolras]

Honestly, North Korea appears postured to head into south Korea, if they do, they will be annihilated..dman

I just can't imagine them doing that. Their ONLY leverage is the fact that they can effectively annihilate Seoul before we can reach them in the event of war. They'd be taking away the one thing keeping them in power... although if they ever do succeed in developing a short range ICBM capable of reliably reaching Japan (particularly something nuclear capable).. that would change.

[Hotrod]

If they head south the death #'s will be huge on both sides. Including US troops.

[enjolras]

Originally Posted by Hotrod

I saw on the news this morning that at 9pm local time NK turns off all electricty to the country except in Kim little dongs house. The whole freaking country goes lights out. I would think Kim "little dong's" house would be an easy target after 9pm

It doesn't look like the WHOLE country, but this image is interesting:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita.../dprk-dark.htm

[Hotrod]

Originally Posted by enjolras

It doesn't look like the WHOLE country, but this image is interesting:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita.../dprk-dark.htm

Thats pretty amazing. Pretty much the whole country is in the dark at night.

[baja]

Seems oddto cut the lights at night when you don't need them during the day

[bendog]

To China, the greatest fear is of a destabilized North Korea, perhaps leading to what the Bush Administration calls "regime change." A breakdown in the North's government could send a flood of millions of starving North Koreans into China, a situation that can be avoided if Kim remains in control. China also dreads a scenario whereby North and South Korea become unified. That could bring a staunch American ally, or even American troops, straight to China's border—exactly what propelled China to war 52 years ago. With that in mind, "China will never support a regime change in North Korea," insists Chu Shulong, a Tsinghua University professor and foreign policy advisor to China's leaders.

This is shaping up to be another neocon cluster**** of diplomacy ... oh wait, bushii doesn't use diplomacy in the normal sense of the word : "diplomacy's hard stuff, people won't do what I tell them."

http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazi...400045,00.html

NK is convinced bushii wants nothing short of regieme change. Kim BongII will blow off nukes before regime change, and China won't buy into regime change, either.

Making it worse is that SK will probably fracture any alliance with us if we did use military force, but the Admim continues its policy of trying to use economic sanctions to destabilize KimBongII's rule, which China will continue to frustrate.

A SENIOR DIPLOMAT IN EAST ASIA PUTS IT bluntly: "If there's no military option and there isn't--and you can't get meaningful sanctions--and you can't--and the six-party talks are exhausted--as they appear to be--what's left?"
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...1579-3,00.html

Also from the second time article - what bushii could do, but what imo he simply cannot bring himelf to do: accept KimbongII for what he is, and live with it.
The President could endow his negotiators with a few concessions, such as agreeing to more one-on-one chats between Washington and the North in the context of the six-party talks, to lure Kim back to the table. But given that Kim has turned his back on multilateral discussions for almost a year, the Bush Administration may have to face the fact that if it wants closure on North Korea, it will have to engage in what Kim has wanted all along: direct talks. The goal of North Korea would presumably be diplomatic recognition and security guarantees from Washington, as well as all sorts of economic goodies like those the U.S. and its European allies are offering Iran as incentives to cease its suspected nuclear-weapons program. In return, Kim would have to agree to stand down on his nuclear program.

[Rohirrim]

That's a good idea. Bush should just choose somebody, preferably a Washington lawyer, to engage in two party talks with Jong Il. Then, just sit there and talk for a few years. Make sure the lawyer knows the game plan - that we have no intention of giving NK anything at all. We can discuss the dimensions of the table we're sitting at, or the weather, or the wheat harvest, or whatever they'd like to discuss.

[bendog]

Bush should just choose somebody, preferably a Washington lawyer,

Jimmy Baker!

Seriously, bushii wants nothing short of reigime change. Frankly he's more dangerous than KimBongII.

[defenseman]

[QUOTE=enjolras;1310164]I just can't imagine them doing that. Their ONLY leverage is the fact that they can effectively annihilate Seoul before we can reach them in the event of war. They'd be taking away the one thing keeping them in power... although if they ever do succeed in developing a short range ICBM capable of reliably reaching Japan (particularly something nuclear capable).. that would change.[/QUOTE]

Don't agree. A satisfactory underground test is all the "leverage" they need. Assuming they do not have a satisfactory delivery vehicle is no longer an option. You must assume they can deliver as boasted..dman

[defenseman]

Originally Posted by bendog

To China, the greatest fear is of a destabilized North Korea, perhaps leading to what the Bush Administration calls "regime change." A breakdown in the North's government could send a flood of millions of starving North Koreans into China, a situation that can be avoided if Kim remains in control. China also dreads a scenario whereby North and South Korea become unified. That could bring a staunch American ally, or even American troops, straight to China's border—exactly what propelled China to war 52 years ago. With that in mind, "China will never support a regime change in North Korea," insists Chu Shulong, a Tsinghua University professor and foreign policy advisor to China's leaders.

This is shaping up to be another neocon cluster**** of diplomacy ... oh wait, bushii doesn't use diplomacy in the normal sense of the word : "diplomacy's hard stuff, people won't do what I tell them."

http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazi...400045,00.html

NK is convinced bushii wants nothing short of regieme change. Kim BongII will blow off nukes before regime change, and China won't buy into regime change, either.

Making it worse is that SK will probably fracture any alliance with us if we did use military force, but the Admim continues its policy of trying to use economic sanctions to destabilize KimBongII's rule, which China will continue to frustrate.

A SENIOR DIPLOMAT IN EAST ASIA PUTS IT bluntly: "If there's no military option and there isn't--and you can't get meaningful sanctions--and you can't--and the six-party talks are exhausted--as they appear to be--what's left?"
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...1579-3,00.html

Also from the second time article - what bushii could do, but what imo he simply cannot bring himelf to do: accept KimbongII for what he is, and live with it.
The President could endow his negotiators with a few concessions, such as agreeing to more one-on-one chats between Washington and the North in the context of the six-party talks, to lure Kim back to the table. But given that Kim has turned his back on multilateral discussions for almost a year, the Bush Administration may have to face the fact that if it wants closure on North Korea, it will have to engage in what Kim has wanted all along: direct talks. The goal of North Korea would presumably be diplomatic recognition and security guarantees from Washington, as well as all sorts of economic goodies like those the U.S. and its European allies are offering Iran as incentives to cease its suspected nuclear-weapons program. In return, Kim would have to agree to stand down on his nuclear program.

Disagree on certian points here:
-Kim will sell arms if given the opportunity. We quite simply can't allow that. If Iran for example were to acquire them from NK, ANY chance of a solution via the deterrent method is absolutely gone.

-NK is for all intents and purposes starving away. All suffer except those needed to keep their ideology in place. My only concern on economic sanctions is , when desperate, Kim will do something rash. At that point who knows what happens. We are truly in a pickle.

-Bush has to draw a line in the sand with this guy. If he doesn't no telling what is next. In any case, proliferation must stop now or we are in for major repurcussions.

Kim says we are forcing him to do what he does. If he wanted to stop fooling around, he would. I'm sure if he were to standdown, we would also. Kim is reaching for excuses and scapegoats. Ultimately, it's all his decision from where I sit..dman

[Rohirrim]

Somebody is bsing somebody. Tests have found no radiation:

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapc...ple/index.html

[Bronco_Beerslug]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Somebody is bsing somebody. Tests have found no radiation:

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapc...ple/index.html

Maybe, maybe not. It isn't always possible to detect radiation from nuclear detonations.

[Hotrod]

If it was a test of a nuke it was certainly small or atleast a partial failure. The air tests really dont tell us anything other then if it was an actual test they did a very good job of containing the test area.

[Rohirrim]

IMO, if you add it all up it equals

[defenseman]

Originally Posted by Bronco_Beerslug

Maybe, maybe not. It isn't always possible to detect radiation from nuclear detonations.

Beerslug is correct on this one..dman

[bendog]

-Bush has to draw a line in the sand with this guy. If he doesn't no telling what is next. In any case, proliferation must stop now or we are in for major repurcussions.

D-Man, here's the deal:

SK won't support military action. China won't support anything that destablizes KimBongII, including military action. So, how do you suggest Bushii draw a line in the sand? He could just bomb the **** outta them, though the result of that would be at the least SK telling us to go and China dumping our dollars.

The basic problem is that what Kim BongII is probably willing to settle for is diplomatic recognition and econ help, like we offered Iran, but bushii won't do it, and our allies China hah, Japan and SK view him as being pig headed.

[Hotrod]

What it boils down to is like it or not Little Kim has us where he wants us..........for now.

[Hotrod]

The good news is that little Kimmy cant do much either without losing his hand per se. If he becomes aggresive and starts a war he gains nothing. If he holds the cards he has he gets to talk **** but thats about it. No what he does with any weapons he gets is another story....ie selling them on the market.

[defenseman]

Originally Posted by bendog

-Bush has to draw a line in the sand with this guy. If he doesn't no telling what is next. In any case, proliferation must stop now or we are in for major repurcussions.

D-Man, here's the deal:

SK won't support military action. China won't support anything that destablizes KimBongII, including military action. So, how do you suggest Bushii draw a line in the sand? He could just bomb the **** outta them, though the result of that would be at the least SK telling us to go and China dumping our dollars.

The basic problem is that what Kim BongII is probably willing to settle for is diplomatic recognition and econ help, like we offered Iran, but bushii won't do it, and our allies China hah, Japan and SK view him as being pig headed.

You are leaving out one key part of the puzzle. Kim has nukes. They cannot be used, sold, anything at all. Two options of fixing that probem:

1) Take his toys away
2) Develop a deterrant strategy to preclude him deploying OR selling the weapons.

Option #1 is quite simply not realistic. We do anything to attempt that militarily it's lights out. He's got them, he won't give them up.
Option #2 is feasible. draw a line in the sand (which bush has already done in some respects) and ensure that if he sells or uses against one of our allies in the pacific rim, he's toast. this includes if a terrorists organization uses one in anger. He will be held accountable for the terrorists using it.

Option #2 gives us time to ensure Iran CANNOT get a nuke. Once they do, it truly is lights out folks. Deterrant capabilities go into the sh**er once Iran gets nukes. Proliferation must stop now..dman

*China is part of the equation in the future, but quite simply, right now they really aren't a player. Kim needs to be boxed up now, not later..

[bendog]

I'm not really convinced it's lights out with Iran. KimBongII actually scares me a bit more.

Iran wants prestige.

Unfortunately, I just don't see bushii as capable of making progress in either country. He's a blowhard and a bully, and they're gonna call him... and he doesn't have a strong hand.

[Hotrod]

Originally Posted by bendog

I'm not really convinced it's lights out with Iran. KimBongII actually scares me a bit more.

Iran wants prestige.

Unfortunately, I just don't see bushii as capable of making progress in either country. He's a blowhard and a bully, and they're gonna call him... and he doesn't have a strong hand.

They both scare the hell out of me. Kim is nuts and Iran is full of religous nuts that want to bring back some dead dude named Imam and they think that will happen when Israel is blown up or something to that effect. Neither of those countrys has any business with the "bomb"