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10-03-2006, 10:13 PM
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#1 |
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Mo' holla fo' yo' dolla!
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: In a bunker in an undisclosed location
Posts: 52,694
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Puts Forecast October Surprise?
Monday, October 02, 2006 - FreeMarketNews.com
INITIAL POST 09.30.06 A faithful reader and commentator, "A. Magnus" writes the following email, posted to FMNN General Feedback: "Do you like October suprises? Is there a big bang coming to hit the markets? If you believe that those in the know use insider information before major events then you might be interested on the HUGE number of October 6th put options for the big indexes. Check out the concentrated puts on the Diamonds DOW Trust (DIA): https://fastquote.fidelity.com/webxp...D_VALUE_ID=DIA Ditto for the S&P Depository Receipts (SPY): https://fastquote.fidelity.com/webxp...D_VALUE_ID=SPY And the NASDAQ (QQQQ): https://fastquote.fidelity.com/webxp..._VALUE_ID=QQQQ Even the Market Vectors Gold Miners has significant puts for October 6th: https://fastquote.fidelity.com/webxp...D_VALUE_ID=GDX Make no mistake - something wicked this way comes, and the smart money has already taken preventative steps." |
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10-04-2006, 12:51 AM
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#2 | |
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It is what it Is.
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 53,890
Adopt-a-Bronco: Buy My Book |
Quote:
Does it look like they are betting something is going to happen to the dollar to drive it down?? |
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10-04-2006, 12:55 AM
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#3 | |
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Mo' holla fo' yo' dolla!
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: In a bunker in an undisclosed location
Posts: 52,694
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10-04-2006, 12:59 AM
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#4 | |
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It is what it Is.
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 53,890
Adopt-a-Bronco: Buy My Book |
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10-04-2006, 01:05 AM
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#5 | |
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Mo' holla fo' yo' dolla!
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: In a bunker in an undisclosed location
Posts: 52,694
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Quote:
A put option is a bet that the price of a given stock is going to take a tumble. |
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10-04-2006, 01:09 AM
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#6 |
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It is what it Is.
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 53,890
Adopt-a-Bronco: Buy My Book |
Then if they are betting gold will fall that means there is good news coming that will bolster confidence and strengthen the dollar. Maybe the got bin laden?
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10-04-2006, 01:10 AM
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#7 |
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It is what it Is.
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 53,890
Adopt-a-Bronco: Buy My Book |
That's it they are going to parade around bin laden just before the election.
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10-04-2006, 01:12 AM
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#8 |
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Ring of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,260
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so is ur money gna go into puts?
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10-04-2006, 01:15 AM
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#9 |
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It is what it Is.
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 53,890
Adopt-a-Bronco: Buy My Book |
Not if the bet is gold is falling that makes cash king...
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10-04-2006, 01:19 AM
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#10 | |
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Ring of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,260
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Quote:
which all makes me more confused on what any of those articles are saying. |
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10-04-2006, 01:25 AM
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#11 |
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Mo' holla fo' yo' dolla!
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: In a bunker in an undisclosed location
Posts: 52,694
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A little bit of info re: Market Vectors Gold Miners:
The investment objective of the Market Vectors Gold Miners Index Fund (GDX) is to provide equity results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of publicly traded equity securities of gold and silver mining companies, as represented by the Amex Gold Miners Index (GDM), a specified market sector Index published by the American Stock Exchange (Amex). The Amex Gold Miners Index (GDM) is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. http://www.amex.com/?href=/etf/prodI...uct_Symbol=GDX So, is the reference in the original article to gold, per se, or to the aforementioned publicly traded companies? |
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10-04-2006, 01:27 AM
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#12 |
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Mo' holla fo' yo' dolla!
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: In a bunker in an undisclosed location
Posts: 52,694
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Somebody page footstepsfrom#27 - he could probably clear this up.
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10-04-2006, 06:52 AM
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#13 |
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Angling in the Deep
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Texas Riviera, Southern Mountains
Posts: 24,281
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Anyone short selling commodities at this point is only moving in the direction the markets are providing. I do this stuff all day long every day, nothing new going on here.
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10-04-2006, 07:12 AM
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#14 |
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***************
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Seattle
Posts: 25,433
Adopt-a-Bronco: QUANTERUS SMITH |
Whether gold prices are in anticipation or not ... If you're not already 'on pins and needles' this very minute about what kind of evil nonsense Rove is planning, then you should be.
Any day now ... |
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10-04-2006, 08:52 AM
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#15 | |
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Partisan
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater
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10-04-2006, 09:00 AM
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#16 |
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Ring of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 9,232
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Interesting....dman
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10-04-2006, 09:13 AM
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#17 |
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Self Appointed Expert
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 25,136
Adopt-a-Bronco: Miss I |
Like I said in the other thread puts usually forecast a huge slide in certain prices. History (9/11) had the most put orders ever I believe. Which is food for thought....but like I said before Im puzzled over where the puts are being placed. Either way someone with information is betting on something big happening on Oct 6th.
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10-04-2006, 09:14 AM
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#18 | |
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Angling in the Deep
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Texas Riviera, Southern Mountains
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10-04-2006, 09:19 AM
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#19 | |
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Self Appointed Expert
Join Date: Aug 2003
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Adopt-a-Bronco: Miss I |
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10-04-2006, 09:20 AM
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#20 |
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Self Appointed Expert
Join Date: Aug 2003
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Adopt-a-Bronco: Miss I |
http://www.hereinreality.com/insidertrading.html
"FTW - October 9, 2001 – Although uniformly ignored by the mainstream U.S. media, there is abundant and clear evidence that a number of transactions in financial markets indicated specific (criminal) foreknowledge of the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. In the case of at least one of these trades -- which has left a $2.5 million prize unclaimed -- the firm used to place the “put options” on United Airlines stock was, until 1998, managed by the man who is now in the number three Executive Director position at the Central Intelligence Agency. Until 1997 A.B. “Buzzy” Krongard had been Chairman of the investment bank A.B. Brown. A.B. Brown was acquired by Banker’s Trust in 1997. Krongard then became, as part of the merger, Vice Chairman of Banker’s Trust-AB Brown, one of 20 major U.S. banks named by Senator Carl Levin this year as being connected to money laundering. Krongard’s last position at Banker’s Trust (BT) was to oversee “private client relations.” In this capacity he had direct hands-on relations with some of the wealthiest people in the world in a kind of specialized banking operation that has been identified by the U.S. Senate and other investigators as being closely connected to the laundering of drug money. Krongard joined the CIA in 1998 as counsel to CIA Director George Tenet. He was promoted to CIA Executive Director by President Bush in March of this year. BT was acquired by Deutsche Bank in 1999. The combined firm is the single largest bank in Europe. And, as we shall see, Deutsche Bank played several key roles in events connected to the September 11 attacks. THE SCOPE OF KNOWN INSIDER TRADING Before looking further into these relationships it is necessary to look at the insider trading information that is being ignored by Reuters, The New York Times and other mass media. It is well documented that the CIA has long monitored such trades – in real time – as potential warnings of terrorist attacks and other economic moves contrary to U.S. interests. Previous stories in FTW have specifically highlighted the use of Promis software to monitor such trades. It is necessary to understand only two key financial terms to understand the significance of these trades, “selling short” and “put options”. “Selling Short” is the borrowing of stock, selling it at current market prices, but not being required to actually produce the stock for some time. If the stock falls precipitously after the short contract is entered, the seller can then fulfill the contract by buying the stock after the price has fallen and complete the contract at the pre-crash price. These contracts often have a window of as long as four months. “Put Options,” are contracts giving the buyer the option to sell stocks at a later date. Purchased at nominal prices of, for example, $1.00 per share, they are sold in blocks of 100 shares. If exercised, they give the holder the option of selling selected stocks at a future date at a price set when the contract is issued. Thus, for an investment of $10,000 it might be possible to tie up 10,000 shares of United or American Airlines at $100 per share, and the seller of the option is then obligated to buy them if the option is executed. If the stock has fallen to $50 when the contract matures, the holder of the option can purchase the shares for $50 and immediately sell them for $100 – regardless of where the market then stands. A call option is the reverse of a put option, which is, in effect, a derivatives bet that the stock price will go up. A September 21 story by the Israeli Herzliyya International Policy Institute for Counterterrorism, entitled “Black Tuesday: The World’s Largest Insider Trading Scam?” documented the following trades connected to the September 11 attacks: - Between September 6 and 7, the Chicago Board Options Exchange saw purchases of 4,744 put options on United Airlines, but only 396 call options… Assuming that 4,000 of the options were bought by people with advance knowledge of the imminent attacks, these “insiders” would have profited by almost $5 million. - On September 10, 4,516 put options on American Airlines were bought on the Chicago exchange, compared to only 748 calls. Again, there was no news at that point to justify this imbalance;… Again, assuming that 4,000 of these options trades represent “insiders,” they would represent a gain of about $4 million. - [The levels of put options purchased above were more than six times higher than normal.] - No similar trading in other airlines occurred on the Chicago exchange in the days immediately preceding Black Tuesday. - Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., which occupied 22 floors of the World Trade Center, saw 2,157 of its October $45 put options bought in the three trading days before Black Tuesday; this compares to an average of 27 contracts per day before September 6. Morgan Stanley’s share price fell from $48.90 to $42.50 in the aftermath of the attacks. Assuming that 2,000 of these options contracts were bought based upon knowledge of the approaching attacks, their purchasers could have profited by at least $1.2 million. Merrill Lynch & Co., with headquarters near the Twin Towers, saw 12,215 October $45 put options bought in the four trading days before the attacks; the previous average volume in those shares had been 252 contracts per day [a 1200% increase!]. When trading resumed, Merrill’s shares fell from $46.88 to $41.50; assuming that 11,000 option contracts were bought by “insiders,” their profit would have been about $5.5 million." |
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10-04-2006, 09:21 AM
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#21 | |
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Draft Defense Early&Often
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 18,526
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Quote:
It's common knowledge that the Terrorists all bought stock that if the airlines stock tumbled they would get huge payouts. Not only din Bin Laden wreck the trade powers but he also made a financial killing. |
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10-04-2006, 09:22 AM
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#22 | |
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Ring of Famer
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10-04-2006, 09:23 AM
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#23 | |
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Self Appointed Expert
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 25,136
Adopt-a-Bronco: Miss I |
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10-04-2006, 09:58 AM
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#24 | |
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Angling in the Deep
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Texas Riviera, Southern Mountains
Posts: 24,281
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Quote:
You can also visit Snopes for more information on these "stories". |
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10-04-2006, 10:01 AM
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#25 | |
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Self Appointed Expert
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 25,136
Adopt-a-Bronco: Miss I |
Quote:
 Id love to read some of your findings Slug. Im certainly not wishing this to be true but the facts I've seen are ugly. Are they just false or twisted or what How do you explain those increase puts in the days before 9/11.......1200% over average. I could very well be wrong but show me something that proves it. |
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