Will Mexico explode? - The Orange Mane

mhgaffney · 09-09-2006, 07:50 AM

A new revolution

Roger Burbach

September 6, 2006 12:41 PM

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/...evolution.html

Mexico moved one step closer to a social explosion with the Federal Election Tribunal's decision to crown conservative Felipe Calderon as the victor in the hotly contested presidential elections of July 2. The tribunal acknowledged Calderon's campaign had "violated the norms of public order," particularly with the role played by the business associations in airing rabid TV ads attacking leftist candidate Andres Miguel Lopez Obrador. But it refused to question the fundamental legitimacy of the elections or to recount all the votes as demanded by the leftist opposition.

Lopez Obrador immediately rejected the tribunal's ruling, declaring that a "privileged minority" has seized control of Mexico's institutions, "keeping the country in ruins and the majority in poverty". He called for the convening on September 16 of a National Democratic Convention "to form a government that has the legitimacy to reestablish the Republic and constitutional order".

As he spoke tens of thousands of his supporters retained control for the 37th consecutive day of the centre of Mexico City around the Zocalo, the country's main historic plaza. The rest of Mexico is also gripped with unrest, particularly the city of Oaxaca to the south. There some 350 popular organizations have staged a virtual insurrection, taking control of the city and demanding the ouster of the state's governor. While not directly tied to the presidential election, the movement reflects the profound discontent in recent years that has led to similar uprisings in Chiapas, Mexico's southern most state, and in San Salvador Atenco, a city that borders on the capital.

Some political observers, like Denise Dresser of Mexico's Autonomous Technical Institute, recognize the legitimacy of much of the political and economic platform of the left, but lament the "refusal of Lopez Obrador to move to the centre, to modify his demands. He says 'to hell with the institutions' and this could tear the country apart".

But the real problem of Mexico runs much deeper. The entrenched political classes along with the Electoral Tribunal, and the Federal Electoral Institute before it, will not make any concessions to Lopez Obrador because they are afraid the entire system of privileges will collapse if they make even modest concessions.

The campaign slogan of Lopez Obrador was straightforward: "For the good of all, the poor first." His program during the campaign was actually quite reformist. In a country where half the population lives below the poverty line Lopez Obrador pledged to provide a stipend to the elderly and healthcare for the poor. Millions of jobs would also be created, particularly by undertaking large construction projects to modernize Mexico's dilapidated transportation system. He also promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with the United States, particularly the clauses that allow the importation of cheap subsidized grains that undermine Mexico's peasant producers.

More importantly Lopez Obrador pledged to break up the corrupt economic relationship that exists between the business class and government bureaucrats. Everyone in Mexico knows that bribes and kickbacks are commonplace throughout Mexico as much of the country's wealth is skimmed off at the expense of the workers and the poor. This system existed under the previous governments of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). It became particularly insidious under the incumbent President Vincente Fox and his National Action party (PAN) because it more than the PRI, is the party of an entrenched business elite. And not only is Lopez Obrador threatening to break up the system of inside favours and corruption, he is also proclaiming that the rich will have to pay the income and business taxes that they routinely avoid.

All this is too much for the dominant classes. They cannot countenance a thorough review of the election process or the opening of the ballot boxes to recount all the votes in an election that was fraught with innumerable irregularities. It is this privileged minority that has radicalized Lopez Obrador and the Mexican masses.

Mexico has had two major social upheavals in its history. One came with the independence movement in 1810, and the other with the revolution that began in 1910 with a fraudulent election staged by a dictator. On September 16, the same day on which a military parade will take place in Mexico City, a massive popular assembly will be held to discuss the creation of an authentic democracy and the possible formation of a parallel government. This could very well be Mexico's next revolution, four years before the century mark.

W*GS · 09-09-2006, 08:21 AM

For something a little less enthusiastic about lefties making Mexico into a chaotic mess:

Mexico's presidential election
The court v the street
Aug 31st 2006 | MEXICO CITY
From The Economist print edition

Felipe Calderón moves a step closer to the presidency but his opponent threatens to make Mexico ungovernable

For the past month Andrés Manuel López Obrador and tens of thousands of his followers have been camped out in and around the Zócalo, Mexico City's historic central square, in support of his claim that fraud robbed him of victory in a presidential election on July 2nd. But the action that matters has been going on less raucously in a nondescript modern building in the south of the city, the headquarters of the Federal Electoral Tribunal. And slowly but surely, the tribunal is disproving Mr López Obrador's claims.

The official vote count gave Felipe Calderón of the ruling conservative National Action Party (PAN) victory by 244,000 votes, or just over half a percentage point. In response to legal challenges by Mr López Obrador, a populist who claims to champion the poor, the tribunal ordered a recount of votes from 9% of polling stations where it decided there were irregularities. On August 28th it revealed the result of the recount. More than 220,000 votes were annulled but Mr Calderón's lead shrank by just 4,183—not nearly enough to change the outcome even if projected across 100% of the ballots.

With that, the tribunal took a big step towards declaring Mr Calderón Mexico's next president. But first it must rule on other legal challenges by Mr López Obrador, such as whether the current president, Vicente Fox, campaigned illegally on Mr Calderón's behalf. After the recount, the challenger called for the tribunal to annul the election. That is unlikely. The tribunal has ruled unanimously, both in ordering the partial recount and in adjudging its result. It seems certain to declare Mr Calderón the winner before the appointed deadline of September 6th.

Mr López Obrador—contrary to earlier pledges by him and his advisers—shows no sign of accepting the verdict. “The electoral tribunal decided to validate the fraud against the citizens' will,” he told a rally of his supporters. Referring to Mr Calderón as “the usurper”, he vowed to create a “shadow government”, in effect threatening to make Mexico ungovernable. His mass camp-in has caused gridlock in the city centre, and hurt nearby businesses, including hotels. But the camps have a festive air, with impromptu concerts and sports competitions.

Once the tribunal gives its final ruling, his support may dwindle. His claims of bias by the tribunal persuade nobody but his hardcore followers. He invokes Mexico's past tradition of electoral fraud under the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled for seven decades until Mr Fox's victory in 2000. But Mexico established independent electoral institutions in 1996. Since then, the tribunal has established a strong record of probity.

Tellingly, neither Mr López Obrador nor his Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) question the legislative election held in parallel with the presidential vote. This gave the PRD a record haul in Congress. Its new legislators took up their seats on August 30th; the party's public show of unity may now start to crack.

In the campaign, Mr López Obrador attracted middle-class and centrist voters to his self-proclaimed crusade for poorer and darker-skinned Mexicans. His actions since July 2nd have caused some of that broader support to evaporate. According to a poll for Reforma, a newspaper, if the elections were held again, he would win 30%, down from 36% on election day.

Matters may come to a head on the night of September 15th, when Mr Fox is due to preside over Mexico's independence celebration in the Zócalo. This year, the traditional big crowd will be one pre-assembled by Mr López Obrador. Himself a former mayor of Mexico City, Mr López Obrador is supported by the city government. He plans a mass convention in the city centre on September 16th, where the army holds its annual parade. Some Mexicans fear that he is seeking to provoke violence. But the independence day weekend offers Mr López Obrador a last chance to draw back from a confrontation in which he, and Mexico, would be the losers.

For his part, Mr Calderón has stayed out of the spotlight over most of the past two months. His party fell just short of a majority in Congress. He has offered to form a coalition government. His opponent's bellicosity may boost his chances of finding recruits for this in the centrist PRI. If and when the tribunal anoints him, Mr Calderón will have to strike a difficult balance between asserting democratic authority and reaching out to the alienated constituencies loyal to his querulous rival.

Copyright © 2006 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.

Rohirrim · 09-09-2006, 08:49 AM

Let's have fun with editing:

More importantly the democrats pledged to break up the corrupt economic relationship that exists between the business class and government bureaucrats. Everyone in the U.S. knows that bribes and kickbacks are commonplace throughout the U.S. as much of the country's wealth is skimmed off at the expense of the workers and the poor. This system existed under the previous governments of Clinton, Bush, Reagan, Carter, etc.. It became particularly insidious under the incumbent President Bush and his neocons because it more than the democrats, is the party of an entrenched business elite. And not only are the democrats threatening to break up the system of inside favours and corruption, they are also proclaiming that the rich will have to pay the income and business taxes that they routinely avoid.

W*GS · 09-09-2006, 08:55 AM

Interestingly, where corruption in the US is the worst, you'll find no shortage of Democrats at the trough, right alongside their GOP scumbag (but I repeat myself) brethren

Think Louisiana...

Rohirrim · 09-09-2006, 08:59 AM

I'm not sure Louisiana is part of the United States. I don't think Bush is too sure about that either.

09-09-2006, 07:50 AM	#1
mhgaffney Ring of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 9,845	Will Mexico explode? A new revolution Roger Burbach September 6, 2006 12:41 PM http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/...evolution.html Mexico moved one step closer to a social explosion with the Federal Election Tribunal's decision to crown conservative Felipe Calderon as the victor in the hotly contested presidential elections of July 2. The tribunal acknowledged Calderon's campaign had "violated the norms of public order," particularly with the role played by the business associations in airing rabid TV ads attacking leftist candidate Andres Miguel Lopez Obrador. But it refused to question the fundamental legitimacy of the elections or to recount all the votes as demanded by the leftist opposition. Lopez Obrador immediately rejected the tribunal's ruling, declaring that a "privileged minority" has seized control of Mexico's institutions, "keeping the country in ruins and the majority in poverty". He called for the convening on September 16 of a National Democratic Convention "to form a government that has the legitimacy to reestablish the Republic and constitutional order". As he spoke tens of thousands of his supporters retained control for the 37th consecutive day of the centre of Mexico City around the Zocalo, the country's main historic plaza. The rest of Mexico is also gripped with unrest, particularly the city of Oaxaca to the south. There some 350 popular organizations have staged a virtual insurrection, taking control of the city and demanding the ouster of the state's governor. While not directly tied to the presidential election, the movement reflects the profound discontent in recent years that has led to similar uprisings in Chiapas, Mexico's southern most state, and in San Salvador Atenco, a city that borders on the capital. Some political observers, like Denise Dresser of Mexico's Autonomous Technical Institute, recognize the legitimacy of much of the political and economic platform of the left, but lament the "refusal of Lopez Obrador to move to the centre, to modify his demands. He says 'to hell with the institutions' and this could tear the country apart". But the real problem of Mexico runs much deeper. The entrenched political classes along with the Electoral Tribunal, and the Federal Electoral Institute before it, will not make any concessions to Lopez Obrador because they are afraid the entire system of privileges will collapse if they make even modest concessions. The campaign slogan of Lopez Obrador was straightforward: "For the good of all, the poor first." His program during the campaign was actually quite reformist. In a country where half the population lives below the poverty line Lopez Obrador pledged to provide a stipend to the elderly and healthcare for the poor. Millions of jobs would also be created, particularly by undertaking large construction projects to modernize Mexico's dilapidated transportation system. He also promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with the United States, particularly the clauses that allow the importation of cheap subsidized grains that undermine Mexico's peasant producers. More importantly Lopez Obrador pledged to break up the corrupt economic relationship that exists between the business class and government bureaucrats. Everyone in Mexico knows that bribes and kickbacks are commonplace throughout Mexico as much of the country's wealth is skimmed off at the expense of the workers and the poor. This system existed under the previous governments of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). It became particularly insidious under the incumbent President Vincente Fox and his National Action party (PAN) because it more than the PRI, is the party of an entrenched business elite. And not only is Lopez Obrador threatening to break up the system of inside favours and corruption, he is also proclaiming that the rich will have to pay the income and business taxes that they routinely avoid. All this is too much for the dominant classes. They cannot countenance a thorough review of the election process or the opening of the ballot boxes to recount all the votes in an election that was fraught with innumerable irregularities. It is this privileged minority that has radicalized Lopez Obrador and the Mexican masses. Mexico has had two major social upheavals in its history. One came with the independence movement in 1810, and the other with the revolution that began in 1910 with a fraudulent election staged by a dictator. On September 16, the same day on which a military parade will take place in Mexico City, a massive popular assembly will be held to discuss the creation of an authentic democracy and the possible formation of a parallel government. This could very well be Mexico's next revolution, four years before the century mark.

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09-09-2006, 08:21 AM	#2
W*GS Ring of Famer Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Earth Posts: 19,601	For something a little less enthusiastic about lefties making Mexico into a chaotic mess: Mexico's presidential election The court v the street Aug 31st 2006 \| MEXICO CITY From The Economist print edition Felipe Calderón moves a step closer to the presidency but his opponent threatens to make Mexico ungovernable For the past month Andrés Manuel López Obrador and tens of thousands of his followers have been camped out in and around the Zócalo, Mexico City's historic central square, in support of his claim that fraud robbed him of victory in a presidential election on July 2nd. But the action that matters has been going on less raucously in a nondescript modern building in the south of the city, the headquarters of the Federal Electoral Tribunal. And slowly but surely, the tribunal is disproving Mr López Obrador's claims. The official vote count gave Felipe Calderón of the ruling conservative National Action Party (PAN) victory by 244,000 votes, or just over half a percentage point. In response to legal challenges by Mr López Obrador, a populist who claims to champion the poor, the tribunal ordered a recount of votes from 9% of polling stations where it decided there were irregularities. On August 28th it revealed the result of the recount. More than 220,000 votes were annulled but Mr Calderón's lead shrank by just 4,183—not nearly enough to change the outcome even if projected across 100% of the ballots. With that, the tribunal took a big step towards declaring Mr Calderón Mexico's next president. But first it must rule on other legal challenges by Mr López Obrador, such as whether the current president, Vicente Fox, campaigned illegally on Mr Calderón's behalf. After the recount, the challenger called for the tribunal to annul the election. That is unlikely. The tribunal has ruled unanimously, both in ordering the partial recount and in adjudging its result. It seems certain to declare Mr Calderón the winner before the appointed deadline of September 6th. Mr López Obrador—contrary to earlier pledges by him and his advisers—shows no sign of accepting the verdict. “The electoral tribunal decided to validate the fraud against the citizens' will,” he told a rally of his supporters. Referring to Mr Calderón as “the usurper”, he vowed to create a “shadow government”, in effect threatening to make Mexico ungovernable. His mass camp-in has caused gridlock in the city centre, and hurt nearby businesses, including hotels. But the camps have a festive air, with impromptu concerts and sports competitions. Once the tribunal gives its final ruling, his support may dwindle. His claims of bias by the tribunal persuade nobody but his hardcore followers. He invokes Mexico's past tradition of electoral fraud under the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled for seven decades until Mr Fox's victory in 2000. But Mexico established independent electoral institutions in 1996. Since then, the tribunal has established a strong record of probity. Tellingly, neither Mr López Obrador nor his Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) question the legislative election held in parallel with the presidential vote. This gave the PRD a record haul in Congress. Its new legislators took up their seats on August 30th; the party's public show of unity may now start to crack. In the campaign, Mr López Obrador attracted middle-class and centrist voters to his self-proclaimed crusade for poorer and darker-skinned Mexicans. His actions since July 2nd have caused some of that broader support to evaporate. According to a poll for Reforma, a newspaper, if the elections were held again, he would win 30%, down from 36% on election day. Matters may come to a head on the night of September 15th, when Mr Fox is due to preside over Mexico's independence celebration in the Zócalo. This year, the traditional big crowd will be one pre-assembled by Mr López Obrador. Himself a former mayor of Mexico City, Mr López Obrador is supported by the city government. He plans a mass convention in the city centre on September 16th, where the army holds its annual parade. Some Mexicans fear that he is seeking to provoke violence. But the independence day weekend offers Mr López Obrador a last chance to draw back from a confrontation in which he, and Mexico, would be the losers. For his part, Mr Calderón has stayed out of the spotlight over most of the past two months. His party fell just short of a majority in Congress. He has offered to form a coalition government. His opponent's bellicosity may boost his chances of finding recruits for this in the centrist PRI. If and when the tribunal anoints him, Mr Calderón will have to strike a difficult balance between asserting democratic authority and reaching out to the alienated constituencies loyal to his querulous rival. Copyright © 2006 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.

09-09-2006, 08:49 AM	#3
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 49,104	Let's have fun with editing: More importantly the democrats pledged to break up the corrupt economic relationship that exists between the business class and government bureaucrats. Everyone in the U.S. knows that bribes and kickbacks are commonplace throughout the U.S. as much of the country's wealth is skimmed off at the expense of the workers and the poor. This system existed under the previous governments of Clinton, Bush, Reagan, Carter, etc.. It became particularly insidious under the incumbent President Bush and his neocons because it more than the democrats, is the party of an entrenched business elite. And not only are the democrats threatening to break up the system of inside favours and corruption, they are also proclaiming that the rich will have to pay the income and business taxes that they routinely avoid.

09-09-2006, 08:55 AM	#4
W*GS Ring of Famer Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Earth Posts: 19,601	Interestingly, where corruption in the US is the worst, you'll find no shortage of Democrats at the trough, right alongside their GOP scumbag (but I repeat myself) brethren Think Louisiana...

09-09-2006, 08:59 AM	#5
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 49,104	I'm not sure Louisiana is part of the United States. I don't think Bush is too sure about that either.