|07-08-2006, 03:47 PM||#1|
Lost In Space
Join Date: Apr 2004
Offensive Juggernaut Index Yahoo Article
Just thought this would get folks a ready for training camp
It's the system, stupid.
Okay, it's not always the system. But let me ask you a few questions: Would you rather own the backup running back for Houston or Tampa Bay? Would you rather your stud first-rounder rush behind the offensive line in Miami or Minnesota? Would you rather your rookie sleeper wideout catch passes from Drew Bledsoe or Donovan McNabb?
Knowing how an offense likes to play and how powerful it's likely to be can lead to good fantasy personnel decisions on draft day. Knowing which head coaches are more likely to throw caution to the wind or which offensive lines are ready to put their enormous bodies most effectively in harm's way can help you choose between similar players when it's your turn to pick. And realizing which offenses are, for various reasons, doomed to fantasy failure can help you sidestep much-hyped players in hopeless situations.
With all this in mind, I present to you our 2006 Offensive Juggernaut Index. These team rankings take into account the overall fantasy effectiveness of an offense: its skill-player and offensive-line personnel, its play-calling philosophy, its red-zone efficiency and its schedule strength. We've got one eye focused on last year's performance, and the other cast eagerly on what fantasy players can expect in '06. In a nutshell, I believe the more players you have from the higher-ranked teams on this list, the more likely your fantasy squad will benefit from some big offensive numbers.
1. Indianapolis Colts Rushing: 106.4 (16th) Red Zone Poss.: 61 (2nd)
Yards Per Carry: 3.7 (24th) Red Zone TD: 60.7% (5th-T)
Passing: 261.9 (4th) Red Zone FG: 26.2% (27th)
Rush/Pass Ratio: 0.90 (15th) Red Zone Empty: 13.1% (12th)
Scoring: 27.4 (2nd) '06 Schedule Strength: .484 (11th)
Key Offensive Additions: RB Joseph Addai
Key Offensive Subtractions: RB Edgerrin James
The numbers from 2005 don't look quite as dominant as years' past, but this is still the offense that boasts the best combination of consistency and explosiveness in the NFL. With James gone, the tandem of Addai and Dominic Rhodes assume RB duties, which could mean an uptick in the passing offense. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne will probably both be WR1 in most leagues, but beware of WR Brandon Stokley; by the end of '05, the Colts liked to run a lot of two-tight end sets with Dallas Clark and Bryan Fletcher. Quietly, this offensive line is one of the best two or three in football: they aren't super-explosive, but they very rarely allow negative plays, either rushing or passing. If Tony Dungy had his way, Indy would run even more. However, there's this guy named Peyton Manning in the house, so don't expect it to happen any time soon.
2. Denver Broncos Rushing: 158.7 (2nd) Red Zone Poss.: 58 (5th-T)
Yards Per Carry: 4.7 (2nd-T) Red Zone TD: 60.3% (7th)
Passing: 210.8 (20th) Red Zone FG: 25.9% (28th-T)
Rush/Pass Ratio: 1.17 (3rd-T) Red Zone Empty: 13.8% (13th)
Scoring: 24.7 (7th) '06 Schedule Strength: .516 (20th-T)
Key Offensive Additions: WR Javon Walker; QB Jay Cutler; TE Tony Scheffler
Key Offensive Subtractions: RB Mike Anderson; TE Jeb Putzier
The Broncos continue to boast the best run-blocking system in the NFL. Don't undervalue the home-grown personnel here – OTs Matt Lepsis and George Foster, OGs Ben Hamilton and Cooper Carlisle, and C Tom Nalen – but the system itself is borderline dirty and amazingly effective. Given the extremely run-heavy tendencies here, RBs Ron Dayne and Tatum Bell make an exciting platoon (if anyone wins outright, they'll be fantasy gold, and I think Dayne gets the first crack at the goal-line role that was Anderson's), but it also leads me to wonder if there are enough receptions here to keep both Walker and Rod Smith fantasy-relevant. Jake Plummer helms the team again, and was incredibly efficient and risk-averse in '05 (18 TDs, 7 INTs); if he can't keep it up this year, Cutler waits.
3. Cincinnati Bengals Rushing: 119.4 (11th) Red Zone Poss.: 62 (1st)
Yards Per Carry: 4.2 (9th-T) Red Zone TD: 56.5% (11th)
Passing: 245.9 (7th) Red Zone FG: 32.3% (20th)
Rush/Pass Ratio: 0.85 (17th) Red Zone Empty: 11.3% (11th)
Scoring: 26.3 (4th) '06 Schedule Strength: .543 (31st-T)
Key Offensive Additions: WR Antonio Chatman; OT Andrew Whitworth
Key Offensive Subtractions: QB Jon Kitna; TE Matt Schobel; WR Chris Henry (?)
This superior aerial attack has a couple extraordinary questions that make owning its skill players highly volatile. First and foremost is the health of QB Carson Palmer, who blew out his knee in 2005's AFC Wild Card game. I think it's unlikely Palmer will be the same guy he was last year, but with Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh at wideout, he doesn't have to be Superman to have a ton of fantasy value – (Henry is a question mark because of his multiple arrests this offseason.) This offensive line is actually my No. 1 favorite in the NFL for 2006: filthy and ferocious blocking for RB Rudi Johnson, but allowing the second-fewest sacks in the league; draftee Whitworth is massive, but I think he'll wind up more a guard than a tackle. This line (and especially OTs Willie Anderson and Levi Jones) is so good, the Bengals will score no matter what.
4. Kansas City Chiefs Rushing: 148.9 (4th) Red Zone Poss.: 54 (8th-T)
Yards Per Carry: 4.6 (5th) Red Zone TD: 51.9% (14th)
Passing: 250.9 (5th) Red Zone FG: 37.0% (12th)
Rush/Pass Ratio: 1.03 (10th-T) Red Zone Empty: 11.1% (10th)
Scoring: 25.2 (6th) '06 Schedule Strength: .527 (26th-T)
Key Offensive Additions: QB Brodie Croyle; OG Ian Allen
Key Offensive Subtractions: FB Tony Richardson
Based on last year's numbers, you'd probably have to rank the Chiefs even higher than this, but I'm worried about the age on this otherwise-superior offensive line. OT Willie Roaf is 36 and OG Will Shields is 35 (plus OT John Welbourn unexpectedly retired during minicamp, meaning disappointing Jordan Black is the starter). Roaf is still a terrific run-blocker, but has lost something in pass-blocking (he also missed time in '05 with a torn hamstring). Also for the first time last year, defenses were able to take away TE Tony Gonzalez in the red zone (he matched a career-low with two TDs in '05). QB Trent Green is 36 and nearing the last round-up, and this team still doesn't have a real No. 1 wideout (neither Eddie Kennison nor Samie Parker really fills the bill). Still, with Larry Johnson carrying the rock, and this offensive line incredibly stout while healthy, Kansas City will be fine
|07-08-2006, 05:23 PM||#2|
Join Date: Apr 2006
wow, im surprised to see us at number 2. usually, in the fantasy world, we are very undervalued. it seems like everyone in the fantasy world has taken a chance on a bronco back breaking out and being the #1 back, only to be screwed by our RBBC. i think the ranking could be accurate depending on the passing game tho. if rod and javon are over 85/1,000 with 15 TDs between em, we could be deserving of that spot. other teams have questions too like the bengals, chiefs, seahawks, even colts.