New Orleans seen as top target for '06 hurricanes

[SoCalBronco]

New Orleans seen top target for '06 hurricanes
Wed May 24, 2006 3:21pm ET
Email This Article | Print This Article | Reprints [-] Text [+] By Barbara Liston

ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - New Orleans, still down and out from last year's assault by Hurricane Katrina, is the U.S. city most likely to be struck by hurricane force winds during the 2006 storm season, a researcher said on Wednesday.

The forecast gives New Orleans a nearly 30 percent chance of being hit by a hurricane and a one in 10 chance the storm will be a Category 3 or stronger, meaning sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour), said Chuck Watson of Kinetic Analysis Corp., Savannah, Georgia a risk assessment firm.

"Given the state of the infrastructure down there and the levees, gosh, that's just not good news. But that's what the climate signals look like," Watson said.


Watson, who has partnered with University of Central Florida statistics professor Mark Johnson, also predicted that oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will be disrupted for a minimum of a week at a cost of 7-8 million barrels of oil.

Up to 25 percent of U.S. oil production in the Gulf was shut down last year and 20 percent is still out.

Watson gave a one in 10 chance that oil rigs will sustain enough damage to reduce production by 278 million barrels this year, further escalating prices for gasoline.

The forecasters, who have worked with the oil and gas industry and with state insurance regulators, base their forecast in part on the paths of storms over the past 155 years and expected global climate conditions this year.

Watson and Johnson said a weak La Nina weather condition and warmer-than-normal Gulf of Mexico water temperatures were contributing factors. U.S. government weather experts say the La Nina phenomenon in place earlier this year has dissipated and should not be a factor during the hurricane season.

On Tuesday, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the 2006 hurricane season was expected to produce 13 to 16 named storms, including four to six "major" hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. No leading forecasters came close to predicting what happened in 2005, when 28 tropical storms spawned a record 15 hurricanes.

The 2006 forecast for News Orleans was worse than Watson's prediction for the city last year, he said. But for now, he considers the 2005 season an aberration rather than a trend or a definitive sign of effects from global warming.

"If it happens again this year or next year, then we're in a different climate world than we were in the last 100 years or so," Watson said.

Of 28 coastal cities evaluated under the forecast model, New Orleans ranked top with a 29.3 percent chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds in the storm season that begins officially on June 1.


Other top candidates include Mobile, Alabama, with a 22 percent chance of being buffeted by hurricane-force winds, and the Florida cities of Key West and Pensacola, which both have a 20 percent chance.

West Palm Beach, Florida, which suffered severe damage during last year's Hurricane Wilma, came in just after Key West and Pensacola with a 19 percent chance of being struck yet again by hurricane-force winds.

Watson and Johnson have published a number of research papers on storm and wind damage modeling.

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsar...1-ArticlePage2

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Not good news. Although if that UFO nutjob guy Eric Julien is right, the entire east coast and Gulf Coast, among other regions will be totally wiped out tomorrow, so future hurricanes may not matter.

New Orleans really needs to catch a break. I dont think they could survive from another CAT 3 or higher. The levees havent even been repaired yet.

[Hogan11]

Wow, it takes a lot of sack to make a prediction like that

They predicted FLA to get hit too....wow, just jaw dropping. I'm gonna email them for a personalized reading and maybe some lottery numbers whilst I'm at it.

[ludo21]

I hope NO gets a pass this year, or just a small hit if any.

[Sassy]

Originally Posted by Hogan11

Wow, it takes a lot of sack to make a prediction like that

They predicted FLA to get hit too....wow, just jaw dropping. I'm gonna email them for a personalized reading and maybe some lottery numbers whilst I'm at it.

East coast...you can come camp out at my house!

[Dr. Broncenstein]

The Bush administration had better pay attention and prevent another hurricane from hitting the chocolate city.... they have plenty of warning

[Hogan11]

Funny NC wasn't mentioned.....guess I should've booked for Hatteras this August afterall.

[ludo21]

Originally Posted by Dr. Broncenstein

The Bush administration had better pay attention and prevent another hurricane from hitting the chocolate city.... they have plenty of warning

Prevent? How do you prevent a Hurrican from hitting??

You must be talking about evacuating, right?

[Dr. Broncenstein]

Originally Posted by ludo21

Prevent? How do you prevent a Hurrican from hitting??

You must be talking about evacuating, right?

No man... If the a-hole republican president cared about black people he would have prevented katrina from ever hitting the shore...

[worm]

Originally Posted by Hogan11

Wow, it takes a lot of sack to make a prediction like that

They predicted FLA to get hit too....wow, just jaw dropping. I'm gonna email them for a personalized reading and maybe some lottery numbers whilst I'm at it.

Let me know if they predict a Broncos Super Bowl next year.

THAT would be useful.

[ludo21]

Originally Posted by Dr. Broncenstein

No man... If the a-hole republican president cared about black people he would have prevented katrina from ever hitting the shore...

gotcha.

Bush is racist.

[Ratboy]

I won't be in Florida this hurricane season, but guess where i'll be? San Antonio till mid July!

After that, my Tech School is at Keesler (Biloxi, Mississippi). They got hammered by katrina.

[NOLA Bronco]

Originally Posted by ludo21

gotcha.

Bush is racist.

No he is not racist. Just incompetent. Just like the Gov. The city was about as well prepared as one could be, and the Mayor at least had some good things in place to help get people out. We all saw how hard it was to try an evacuate Houston, right? NOLA had some experience trying to get people out before and learned from those mistakes. The conditions at the superdome were terrible, but that was thousands of people who would have otherwise drowned or would have been trapped on their roofs. The mayor says some stupid things, but he did a pretty good job before the storm, and has some good ideas for the recovery.

The levees (built by the feds) burst and the feds sat on their rears. Thats the part Bush could have helped with. People sat for days to get help, which in 21st century America is absolutely appalling. The government has more man power and money than any other entity, yet couldn't figure out how to get people some water? Of course, it didn't help that half our national guard is somewhere else, helping other people who don't actually pay taxes. In general, Washington has turned their back on this region for a long time. While $200m bridges to nowhere get built in Alaska, Louisiana doesnt get the funding it needs to restore wetlands that are crucial to slowing down hurricanes. LA also doesnt get its fair share of off shore oil money, which would help repair the coastline.

What a nice first post, eh?

Go Broncos.

[ludo21]

Welcome!!!

Great first post.

So the town was flooded, yet they couldnt find water (j/k)

[NOLA Bronco]

Originally Posted by ludo21

Welcome!!!

Great first post.

So the town was flooded, yet they couldnt find water (j/k)

You can still see the water marks left on the buildings. Lord only knows what was in the water that would leave those marks.

[watermock]

While it might of been the Army Corps of Engineers to work on the levees, the state stood on it's hands as well. FEMA screwed up, but damn, New Orleans was nothing less than an impotent government for months. They could of mobilized busses to evacuate and didn't. I'm not going back into this blame game, but it was Bush that actually got the ball rolling with huge aid from helecopters to cargo planes. Putting a city below sea level and also below a huge lake is idiotic in a hurricane zone. That is a historic town in a bad place. Hell, the cemetaries are above ground, they were bobbing around all over the place. They should be dredging the river and throwing rock on the levees like crazy as I speak. The real problem is that silt builds up all the time because the river has been straightened for commerce. Also, NOLA sinks a little every day. You couldn't find a worse place to build a city, even Washington or NY. At least they are above sea level and can find bedrock.

Where we farm in SE Arkansas because the business model works, the mud is 300 feet deep. That is why we have trac-tors that can navigate in those conditions. (belted tractors). I'm just happy I left the Pensacola/Gulf Breeze area before that thing hit.

[DBruleU]

Originally Posted by Dr. Broncenstein

No man... If the a-hole republican president cared about black people he would have prevented katrina from ever hitting the shore...

Kanye West...is that you....?

[Dr. Broncenstein]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

Kanye West...is that you....?

My sarcasm, laid on in triple layers and covered with fried sarcasm that hard to detect?

[DBruleU]

Originally Posted by Dr. Broncenstein

My sarcasm, laid on in triple layers and covered with fried sarcasm that hard to detect?

Yes, when I have never seen any of your posts consisting of George Bush, and it's over the internet.

[NOLA Bronco]

Originally Posted by watermock

While it might of been the Army Corps of Engineers to work on the levees, the state stood on it's hands as well. FEMA screwed up, but damn, New Orleans was nothing less than an impotent government for months. They could of mobilized busses to evacuate and didn't. I'm not going back into this blame game, but it was Bush that actually got the ball rolling with huge aid from helecopters to cargo planes. Putting a city below sea level and also below a huge lake is idiotic in a hurricane zone. That is a historic town in a bad place. Hell, the cemetaries are above ground, they were bobbing around all over the place. They should be dredging the river and throwing rock on the levees like crazy as I speak. The real problem is that silt builds up all the time because the river has been straightened for commerce. Also, NOLA sinks a little every day. You couldn't find a worse place to build a city, even Washington or NY. At least they are above sea level and can find bedrock.

Where we farm in SE Arkansas because the business model works, the mud is 300 feet deep. That is why we have trac-tors that can navigate in those conditions. (belted tractors). I'm just happy I left the Pensacola/Gulf Breeze area before that thing hit.

The original footprint of the city is above sea level. The rest is landfill that should probably return to marshy areas. As we saw in New England though, it can flood anywhere. And it was/is a great spot for a city because of the river and gulf access. The Govt in the city prior to the storm was in pretty good shape actually. They did have some trouble getting buses rounded up here for two reasons. One, like Houston, the bus drivers weren't sticking around, and two, the buses flooded. Was that a mistake, sure, but no one in the city expected these levees and flood walls to fail. The trust had been built up for a generation. There was a large portion of people who chose to stay, and others who felt they had no choice because of their pets, property, or elderly relatives. Most of the issues discussed here aren't about how the evacuation failed, because it didn't (over a million people in the area did leave). Its about what to do with those that can't leave. Everyone who lived here then thought we would be back in a couple days at most. And we would have, if the levees had held.

Bush has the military at his disposal. There should have been helicopters in the sky on Monday or Tuesday, rather than Saturday. He shouldn't have waited to be asked for help, he is th CIC and should know when to take control when needed. But then again, he did appoint good old Brownie to do it.

[Dr. Broncenstein]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

Yes, when I have never seen any of your posts consisting of George Bush, and it's over the internet.

Maybe the part where I said Bush should prevent hurricanes could have given you a hint.

[DBruleU]

Originally Posted by Dr. Broncenstein

Maybe the part where I said Bush should prevent hurricanes could have given you a hint.

I don't know about that....with some of the stupidity thrown around here, I don't know what to think.

[Dr. Broncenstein]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

I don't know....with some of my stupidity thrown around here, I don't know... what to think?

Fixed it for you

[fontaine]

Maybe not this year but from now one the Gulf is going to be a much rougher place with more and more hurricanes twisting away. The CO2 levels in the upper atmosphere have been increasing steadly for decades, and oceans are getting warmer all the time. Ofcourse we're going to have more hurricanes. The question is what are people going to do now to stop this crap from getting worse and worse in the next 10-20 years? Or is it much easier simply to lay the blame at the current administration for the problems of today that have their roots going back decades?

[Bronco_Beerslug]

Originally Posted by Dr. Broncenstein

The Bush administration had better pay attention and prevent another hurricane from hitting the chocolate city.... they have plenty of warning

Too late to prevent them this year but their "pollute the world for corporate gain" policy doesn't help for future years.

Of course, with the extremely quick reaction time Bush had last year there shouldn't be much of a problem.

[defenseman]

I'm not touching New Orleans and hurricanes anymore. Mother nature may be have more in store for it, however, given we can't control mother nature, well it's out of our hands. Good luck to NO. Living in a fishbowl well below sea level in a hurricane prone area? Well, it doesn't make sense to me anyway. Hope they have real good flood insurance. I personally am not looking forward to insurance rates across the country going up anymore than they have to..dman