Adam's Comp Projections - The Orange Mane

SpringStein · 03-07-2006, 02:31 PM

http://www.kffl.com/forums/showthread.php?t=163280

Some of you will remember AdamJT's projection of comp picks from last year - he is typically pretty close. He has a relative (I believe) who works in the NFL office.

Unfortunately he is projecting us to get 1 4th rounder only. My personal hope had been a 3rd round comp pick.

THIRD ROUND
N.Y. Jets (LaMont Jordan, $5.51 million, 14 GP/14 GS)

FOURTH ROUND
Denver (Reggie Hayward, $5.0 million, 15/15)
Pittsburgh (Kendrell Bell, $4.974 million, 16/14)
Baltimore (Gary Baxter, $5.004 million, 5/5 IR)
Pittsburgh (Plaxico Burress, $4.167 million, 16/15)
Baltimore (Edgerton Hartwell, $4.375 million, 5/5 IR)

As you see Hayward is the top of those at end of the 4th, so if he is just a little bit wrong - we still could get a 3rd rounder for him.

The stats are average salary on the contract and number of games played/started.

Always an interesting read - I recommend it.

SpringStein · 03-07-2006, 02:34 PM

Other comments on Denver:

DENVER
Lost – Reggie Hayward, Kenoy Kennedy, Donnie Spragan.
Signed – Stephen Alexander, Keith Burns.

If Keith Burns does not qualify, Denver will get a fifth- or sixth-round comp pick for Kenoy Kennedy ($2.80 million, 16 GP/16 GS), and Tampa Bay won’t get a seventh-round comp pick for Burns.

eddie mac · 03-07-2006, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpringStein

Other comments on Denver:

DENVER
Lost – Reggie Hayward, Kenoy Kennedy, Donnie Spragan.
Signed – Stephen Alexander, Keith Burns.

If Keith Burns does not qualify, Denver will get a fifth- or sixth-round comp pick for Kenoy Kennedy ($2.80 million, 16 GP/16 GS), and Tampa Bay won’t get a seventh-round comp pick for Burns.

Burns doesn't qualify cos he got a vet minimum deal.

ludo21 · 03-07-2006, 02:43 PM

I hope we can at least get a 3rd. Reggie and Kennoy were both solid contributors to their teams.

eddie mac · 03-07-2006, 02:45 PM

The Ravens could end up with a 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th.

Hercules Rockefeller · 03-07-2006, 06:01 PM

He was wrong last year with the Broncos. Said Denver would only get a 4th for Berry and that Gold didn't qualify. He's good, but by no means infallible. I would be surprised if there is only 1 3rd round comp pick this year.

Hercules Rockefeller · 03-07-2006, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpringStein

Other comments on Denver:

DENVER
Lost – Reggie Hayward, Kenoy Kennedy, Donnie Spragan.
Signed – Stephen Alexander, Keith Burns.

If Keith Burns does not qualify, Denver will get a fifth- or sixth-round comp pick for Kenoy Kennedy ($2.80 million, 16 GP/16 GS), and Tampa Bay won’t get a seventh-round comp pick for Burns.

I also question whether there's a total cancellation when the deal aren't close. Alexander and Spragan will cancel out since they're only about $150k apart per year. But the difference between KK and KB was about $2M in Year 1, and then another 3 years of KK. I can't see Burns being able to completely wipe out Kennedy.

bpc · 03-07-2006, 06:13 PM

If this is true, what a joke the compensatory system has become.

chanesaw · 03-07-2006, 06:45 PM

Doesn't Kelly Herndon count?

SoCalBronco · 03-07-2006, 07:09 PM

I'd be really, really angry if all we got was a fourth.

Raider Bill · 03-07-2006, 07:20 PM

The Eagles are really getting jobbed if all they get is a 6th for Burgess.

Billy Clyde Puckett · 03-07-2006, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chanesaw

Doesn't Kelly Herndon count?

No he was not tendered

Hercules Rockefeller · 03-07-2006, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Guy

No he was not tendered

He was tendered, but he's an RFA and they are not used in comp pick calculations.

SpringStein · 03-07-2006, 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hercules Rockefeller

He was wrong last year with the Broncos. Said Denver would only get a 4th for Berry and that Gold didn't qualify. He's good, but by no means infallible. I would be surprised if there is only 1 3rd round comp pick this year.

Good memory! Yes, he did miss on Broncos last year. I have seen his picks the last 3 years and last year was the first time he missed more than a couple. Apparently the system isn't "hard and fast" - so there is some speculating.

-Slap- · 03-08-2006, 06:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bpc

If this is true, what a joke the compensatory system has become.

It has always been a joke because the parameters are not clearly defined. The results are arbitrary at best.

03-07-2006, 02:31 PM	#1
SpringStein Ring of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Monument, CO Posts: 2,733	Adam's Comp Projections http://www.kffl.com/forums/showthread.php?t=163280 Some of you will remember AdamJT's projection of comp picks from last year - he is typically pretty close. He has a relative (I believe) who works in the NFL office. Unfortunately he is projecting us to get 1 4th rounder only. My personal hope had been a 3rd round comp pick. THIRD ROUND N.Y. Jets (LaMont Jordan, $5.51 million, 14 GP/14 GS) FOURTH ROUND Denver (Reggie Hayward, $5.0 million, 15/15) Pittsburgh (Kendrell Bell, $4.974 million, 16/14) Baltimore (Gary Baxter, $5.004 million, 5/5 IR) Pittsburgh (Plaxico Burress, $4.167 million, 16/15) Baltimore (Edgerton Hartwell, $4.375 million, 5/5 IR) As you see Hayward is the top of those at end of the 4th, so if he is just a little bit wrong - we still could get a 3rd rounder for him. The stats are average salary on the contract and number of games played/started. Always an interesting read - I recommend it.

03-07-2006, 07:09 PM	#10
SoCalBronco Nixonite Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Arcadia, CA Posts: 33,318 Adopt-a-Bronco: D.J. Williams	I'd be really, really angry if all we got was a fourth. __________________ ITS A PLAYOFF HOCKEY NIGHT IN PITTSBURGH!

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03-07-2006, 02:34 PM	#2
SpringStein Ring of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Monument, CO Posts: 2,733	Other comments on Denver: DENVER Lost – Reggie Hayward, Kenoy Kennedy, Donnie Spragan. Signed – Stephen Alexander, Keith Burns. If Keith Burns does not qualify, Denver will get a fifth- or sixth-round comp pick for Kenoy Kennedy ($2.80 million, 16 GP/16 GS), and Tampa Bay won’t get a seventh-round comp pick for Burns.

03-07-2006, 02:43 PM	#4
ludo21 RIP Darrent Williams Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Glendale, AZ Posts: 17,915 Adopt-a-Bronco: Paul Ernster	I hope we can at least get a 3rd. Reggie and Kennoy were both solid contributors to their teams.

03-07-2006, 02:45 PM	#5
eddie mac Ireland's No1 Bronco Eddie Mac 87 gone but never forgott Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: IRELAND Posts: 15,572 Adopt-a-Bronco: Rod Smith	The Ravens could end up with a 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th.

03-07-2006, 06:01 PM	#6
Hercules Rockefeller Ring of Famer Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 16,005 Adopt-a-Bronco: DJ Williams	He was wrong last year with the Broncos. Said Denver would only get a 4th for Berry and that Gold didn't qualify. He's good, but by no means infallible. I would be surprised if there is only 1 3rd round comp pick this year.

03-07-2006, 06:13 PM	#8
bpc "Nemo Me Impune Lacessit" 1 sword keeps another in the sheath Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Northern California Posts: 12,574 Adopt-a-Bronco: Von Miller	If this is true, what a joke the compensatory system has become.

03-07-2006, 06:45 PM	#9
chanesaw Ring of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Indiana Posts: 1,174 Adopt-a-Bronco: Elvis Dumervil	Doesn't Kelly Herndon count?

03-07-2006, 07:20 PM	#11
Raider Bill ........ Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Southern New Joisey Posts: 4,199	The Eagles are really getting jobbed if all they get is a 6th for Burgess.