Statistical fun with NE

[enjolras]

I was a bit interested in how the stats broke down from the game on Saturday... in particular the passing stats.

As a whole New England had 341 yards passing on 79 yards rushing. That combined for the 400+ yards we have heard so much about. But looking inside those stats I found some interesting bits. Here is the raw play-by-play passing data for New England.

1st Quarter
===========
Attempts: 9
Completions: 4
Yards: 30

2nd Quarter
===========
Attempts: 6
Completions: 4
Yards: 85

3rd Quarter
===========
Attempts: 13
Completions: 10
Yards: 121

4th Quarter
============
Attempts: 8
Completions: 4
Yards: 93

Now lets look at the rushing stats:

1st Quarter
============
Attempts: 6
Yards: 23
Average: 4.83

2nd Quarter
===========
Attempts: 6
Yards: 23
Average: 4.83

3rd Quarter
===========
Attempts: 6
Yards: 16
Average: 2.67

4th Quarter
===========
Attempts: 2
Yards: 17
Average: 8.5

Given just this information you see something really interesting. The Patriots actually ran the bell quite well in the first half. 12 rushes yielded a 4.83 yards per rush. That's not spectacular, but it does show a really solid rushing attack.

Yet look at the 3rd quarter. The patriots first drive was succesful, netting 48 yards through the air (6 attempts) but only 10 yards on the ground (4 attempts or 2.5 an attempt). The last two of those runs coming at the Denver 32 and the Denver 20. With the score 10-3 I beleive the game turned on this possession... The Patriots came into the second half beleiving they could run the ball thanks to a small amount of 1st half success. The Broncos defense shut the running attack down, and the Patriots would run only rush 4 more times in the entire game.

Even inside the Denver 10 where the Patriots had it 1st and goal, they opted to throw 3 consecutive passes (in the tight confines of the red zone) with the last being picked and returned 100 yards for an almost score.

The Patriots had to throw the ball in that situation because the Broncos had demonstrated that they could take the run away and I think that is VERY significant. The Patriots did gain a LOT of yards, but all through the air and they where forced to abandon their run game altogether even with the score only at 10-6.

I want to look at the passing #'s too, but I'll do that in a second post.

[enjolras]

The passing numbers show something interesting as well...

In the first 2 quarters Brady was 6-13 for 94 yards. 51 (more than half) came on a single completion.

Good, but not spectacular by any stretch.

In the third quarter he absolutely went off, going 10-13 for 121 yards. He had passes of 10, 14, 18, 26, and 33 yards. Which is actually very impressive.. This is the one point in the game where the Patriots truly did look like the 'better' team in that they where throwing it very effectively (although they had no running game in support at this point). The only issue is that the game changing interception (Bailey) took place right as Brady had them moving at their best. The Broncos kept the play in front of them not letting anything go beyond 33 yards.. and in doing so gave themselves opportunities to make plays and they pounced when they finally had the chance.

The biggest play was the 73 yard touchdown in the 4th quarter, which accounted for all but 20 of the 4th quarter yards Brady passed for. In other words, Brady was able to throw a couple of big plays (2 plays accounted for 124 of the 341 total), for the most part he was kept in check. This is the case where blanket stats really don't tell the whole story...on paper it looks like the Patriots where extremely good offensively, but when broken out play by play you see a different story.

Here was a team that couldn't run the ball that was forced to settle for a lot of short passes. By forcing the Patriots to throw so much the Broncos where able to give themselves chances to make big plays, with none bigger than the interception in the 3rd quarter.

I think it looks like a very good performance by a very good defense that just needs to shore up some big play issues...

[errand]

The only stat that matters...Broncos scored 27 points....Patriots scored only 13. Well maybe one more stat...Broncos 1 turnover....Patriots 5

[ludo21]

Great breakdon enjolras.

As i watching the game I really wasnt EVER worried of their O. Our D was doing what they have done all year. Keeping the play in front of them. (Just as the Pats do)
It really show s how fast the D really is when we blitz as much as we do, but we still keep the play IN front of us. I cant wait till we luck our way out of next week too.

[40yrpatsfan]

The Patriots really don't depend on the run, unless they have the lead and are trying to eat up clock. They use their short passing game in lieu of running much of the time.

Denver's D played pretty well in this game, especially in the first half. A lot of that was because of bad field position throughout the first 1 1/2 quarters, when the Broncos repeatedly pinned the Pats inside the 15 with good punts and kept them bottled up there.

NE's offense got untracked near the end of the first half, and they moved the ball effectively for the rest of the game. But they couldn't beat the turnover and mistake bug. It was like payback all at once for all their mistake-free play through 10 straight playoff games. The calls didn't go their way either, but it was mostly the fumbles, the 100 yd interception, the missed open TD pass, and missed gimme FG. Stuff they never do.

The Broncos deserved the win but were outplayed for long stretches and were very fortunate to win despite the 14 point margin.

[Northman]

Well, sometimes ugly teams win ( see Ravens ) and if that means we can win another SB winning ugly than im all for it.

[40yrpatsfan]

Originally Posted by Anubis

Well, sometimes ugly teams win ( see Ravens ) and if that means we can win another SB winning ugly than im all for it.

I don't blame you. That's what we were saying after we beat the Rams in the 2001 SB.

[enjolras]

I'm massaging the data a bit.. I'm trying to pull stuff from the play by play chart but they're not real consistent in how they recorded it...

I have completions/attempts sorted out...I'm a few yards off in the passing yards and I'm missing a single rushing attempt somewhere....

Deal with it

[Northman]

Originally Posted by 40yrpatsfan

I don't blame you. That's what we were saying after we beat the Rams in the 2001 SB.

And just for the record i was rooting for you guys that year.

[Mediator12]

Originally Posted by enjolras

I was a bit interested in how the stats broke down from the game on Saturday... in particular the passing stats.

As a whole New England had 341 yards passing on 79 yards rushing. That combined for the 400+ yards we have heard so much about. But looking inside those stats I found some interesting bits. Here is the raw play-by-play passing data for New England.



Now lets look at the rushing stats:



Given just this information you see something really interesting. The Patriots actually ran the bell quite well in the first half. 12 rushes yielded a 4.83 yards per rush. That's not spectacular, but it does show a really solid rushing attack.

Yet look at the 3rd quarter. The patriots first drive was succesful, netting 48 yards through the air (6 attempts) but only 10 yards on the ground (4 attempts or 2.5 an attempt). The last two of those runs coming at the Denver 32 and the Denver 20. With the score 10-3 I beleive the game turned on this possession... The Patriots came into the second half beleiving they could run the ball thanks to a small amount of 1st half success. The Broncos defense shut the running attack down, and the Patriots would run only rush 4 more times in the entire game.

Even inside the Denver 10 where the Patriots had it 1st and goal, they opted to throw 3 consecutive passes (in the tight confines of the red zone) with the last being picked and returned 100 yards for an almost score.

The Patriots had to throw the ball in that situation because the Broncos had demonstrated that they could take the run away and I think that is VERY significant. The Patriots did gain a LOT of yards, but all through the air and they where forced to abandon their run game altogether even with the score only at 10-6.

I want to look at the passing #'s too, but I'll do that in a second post.

Thanks for the analysis.

However, that should read 3.83 yards not 4.83. 12/46 yards=3.83.

[OrangeShadow]

[terry251973]

them stats look alot like the opposing teams all year long.passing because they cant run and turning ball over and in essence.LOSING.doesnt matter how you win as long as you win.

[Bronx33]

Originally Posted by enjolras

I was a bit interested in how the stats broke down from the game on Saturday... in particular the passing stats.

As a whole New England had 341 yards passing on 79 yards rushing. That combined for the 400+ yards we have heard so much about. But looking inside those stats I found some interesting bits. Here is the raw play-by-play passing data for New England.



Now lets look at the rushing stats:



Given just this information you see something really interesting. The Patriots actually ran the bell quite well in the first half. 12 rushes yielded a 4.83 yards per rush. That's not spectacular, but it does show a really solid rushing attack.

Yet look at the 3rd quarter. The patriots first drive was succesful, netting 48 yards through the air (6 attempts) but only 10 yards on the ground (4 attempts or 2.5 an attempt). The last two of those runs coming at the Denver 32 and the Denver 20. With the score 10-3 I beleive the game turned on this possession... The Patriots came into the second half beleiving they could run the ball thanks to a small amount of 1st half success. The Broncos defense shut the running attack down, and the Patriots would run only rush 4 more times in the entire game.

Even inside the Denver 10 where the Patriots had it 1st and goal, they opted to throw 3 consecutive passes (in the tight confines of the red zone) with the last being picked and returned 100 yards for an almost score.

The Patriots had to throw the ball in that situation because the Broncos had demonstrated that they could take the run away and I think that is VERY significant. The Patriots did gain a LOT of yards, but all through the air and they where forced to abandon their run game altogether even with the score only at 10-6.

I want to look at the passing #'s too, but I'll do that in a second post.

This info came in very handy in a little dispute on another board thanks man!

[Bronx33]

Originally Posted by OrangeShadow

MMMMMmmmmmmmmmmm i love turnovers.