Draft Watch - How Low Can We Go? - The Orange Mane

DomCasual · 11-03-2005, 05:04 PM

I spent some time today looking at the last five drafts, and the correlation between a team's losses and the position they draft for the following season. I thought it might be kind of cool to follow the Redskins season, and our projected draft position, based upon the number of games they have lost.

Right now, it's no big deal. A team with 3 losses has drafted in an average position of Number 30.8. But from here, each time they lose, the number will drop fairly dramatically.

So, rounding up, if the Redskins go undefeated the rest of the year, we'll draft #31.

I'll keep a running update in this thread with each Redskins loss.

Hercules Rockefeller · 11-03-2005, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DomCasual

I'll keep a running update in this thread with each Redskins loss.

Take it. I had planned to start a weekly thread after next week with the Skins best possible record and worst possible record along with who was drafted at those spots over the past 5 years.

bpc · 11-03-2005, 05:14 PM

skins are going to collapse down the stretch like the Bucs will.

DomCasual · 11-03-2005, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hercules Rockefeller

Take it. I had planned to start a weekly thread after next week with the Skins best possible record and worst possible record along with who was drafted at those spots over the past 5 years.

Cool. Add whatever you want to it. We can get the board's collective karma pulling for Redskin failure.

FYI, the last five years picks at #31:

2005 - Philadelphia - Mike Patterson - DT - Southern Cal
2004 - San Francisco - Raushaun Woods - WR - Oklahoma St.
2003 - Oakland - Nnamdi Asomugha - CB - Cal
2002 - St. Louis - Robert Thomas - LB - UCLA
2001 - Indianapolis - Reggie Wayne - WR - Miami

Go Broncos, and Eagles (for this week)!

Hercules Rockefeller · 11-03-2005, 05:32 PM

and on the flip side

4-12

2002
No one, would have been the 4th worst record though and 5th OA because of the Texans
Quentin Jammer

2003
3. Andre Johnson
4. Dwayne Robertson

2004
1. Eli
2. Robert Gallery
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Rivers

2005
2. Ronnie Brown
3. Braylon Edwards

DomCasual · 11-13-2005, 11:30 PM

Okay, so the Redskins loss today gives them four for the year. Since 2001, teams with four losses drafted in an average position of #28. The last five 28th picks have been:

2005 - San Diego - Luis Castillo - DT - Northwestern
2004 - Carolina - Chris Gamble - CB - Ohio St
2003 - Tennessee - Andre Woolfork - CB - Oklahoma
2002 - Seattle - Jerramy Stevens - TE - Washington
2001 - Oakland - Derrick Gibson - S - Florida St

Week Eleven has the Raiders going to Washington, so it might be a few weeks before this gets updated with another loss. But in the meantime, um, go Raiders?

24champ · 11-13-2005, 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bpc

skins are going to collapse down the stretch like the Bucs will.

like the chiefs will too...

Arkie · 11-14-2005, 02:48 AM

This is a cool idea for a thread. The Skins can go anywhere from 5-11 to 12-4. That's still an enormous range that covers possible picks #1-#28 or so, but that range will get smaller each week.

Hercules Rockefeller · 11-14-2005, 03:43 AM

Over the past few years, 5-11 has been 5th overall at best

Drek · 11-14-2005, 05:28 AM

I'm betting 7-9, whats that average draft spot?

DomCasual · 11-14-2005, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drek

I'm betting 7-9, whats that average draft spot?

7-9's average position would be #13.

DomCasual · 11-14-2005, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hercules Rockefeller

Over the past few years, 5-11 has been 5th overall at best

Actually, last year it was #4. But otherwise, you are right. 5-11 would get you in the #6 - #7 range, on average.

Elway 4 Life · 11-14-2005, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DomCasual

7-9's average position would be #13.

Seems like you have this draft info handy. Who were the #13 picks the last 5 years?

ludo21 · 11-14-2005, 09:23 AM

Well then, it seems we will probably be around pick 15-20, nice range and i wont have to wait so long to watch the Broncos first pick for once.

DomCasual · 11-14-2005, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elway 4 Life

Seems like you have this draft info handy. Who were the #13 picks the last 5 years?

2005 - New Orleans - Jammal Brown - OT - Oklahoma
2004 - Buffalo - Lee Evans - WR - Wisconsin
2003 - New England - Ty Warren - DE - Texas A&M
2002 - New Orleans - Donte Stallworth - WR - Tennessee
2001 - Jacksonville - Marcus Stroud - DT - Georgia

Jens1893 · 11-14-2005, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DomCasual

2005 - New Orleans - Jammal Brown - OT - Oklahoma
2004 - Buffalo - Lee Evans - WR - Wisconsin
2003 - New England - Ty Warren - DE - Texas A&M
2002 - New Orleans - Donte Stallworth - WR - Tennessee
2001 - Jacksonville - Marcus Stroud - DT - Georgia

thats a pretty nice list

Hotrod · 11-14-2005, 09:39 AM

Wow great Info.......Heres to a complete deadskins tailspin.

Of course it does not make alot of difference Shanny can pretty much get which ever 2 Olineman he wants in the first round this year anyway

Arkie · 11-14-2005, 10:57 AM

Our skins pick:
range = #5 - #28
needs: OL, TE, S

These are the players picked in the range over the last 5 years at the target positions.

OL
13 -Jammal Brown -2005
19 -Alex Barron -2005
26 -Chris Spencer -2005
16 -Shawn Andrews -2004
19 -Vernon Carey -2004
8 -Jordan Gross -2003
20 -George Foster -2003
21 -Jeff Faine -2003
26 -Kwame Harris -2003
7 -Bryant McKinnie -2002
10 -Levi Jones -2002
14 -Kenyatta Walker -2001
17 -Steve Hutchinson -2001
18 -Jeff Backus -2001
20 -Stockar McDougle -2000
22 -Chris McIntosh -2000

TE
6 -Kellen Winslow -2004
32 -Ben Watson -2004
24 -Dallas Clark -2003
14 -Jeremy Shockey -2002
21 -Daniel Graham -2002
28 -Jerramy Stevens -2002
14 -Bubba Franks -2000
27 -Anthony Becht -2000

S
5 -Sean Taylor -2004
16 -Troy Polamalu -2003
8 -Roy Williams -2002
24 -Ed Reed -2002
20 -Adam Archuleta -2001
28 -Derrick Gibson -2001

Rohirrim · 11-14-2005, 11:54 AM

I'd trade both of those Ones plus a player to move up and get Kiwanuka. Anybody see him last week against NC State? The dude is in the mold of Reggie White. Put him on a line with Trevor, Warren and Brown and IT'S OVAH!

Elway 4 Life · 11-14-2005, 12:01 PM

I would love to see Polamahu in orange and blue. That sum b**** is a football player!

Rohirrim · 11-14-2005, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elway 4 Life

I would love to see Polamahu in orange and blue. That sum b**** is a football player!

The inside story was that Shanny wanted Troy bad, just didn't have the necessary stuff to trade up for him. Makes me wonder if Shanny goes for Mike Huff out of Texas this year. Shanny would probably like to get his Steve Atwater back.

Elway 4 Life · 11-14-2005, 12:27 PM

Living 30 minutes north of austin I been able to see about 5 UT games in last 2 years. Huff is an animal. He would be a good addition.

I dont even mind that Polamalu has longer hair than my wife. He can flat out play the game.

Billy Clyde Puckett · 11-14-2005, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

I'd trade both of those Ones plus a player to move up and get Kiwanuka. Anybody see him last week against NC State? The dude is in the mold of Reggie White. Put him on a line with Trevor, Warren and Brown and IT'S OVAH!

I like him too, but he has been injured and inconsistent this year. Completely disappeared in a couple of games. Unless he has a phenomenal combine, He is likely to be around for the current 1A.

Hercules Rockefeller · 11-14-2005, 03:21 PM

Some of you people should look in the draft forum more often

DomCasual · 11-20-2005, 05:10 PM

Week 10, and the Raiders surprisingly come through. It's not looking good in Redskins-ville.

With 5 losses, it drops the Redskins' pick to the 26th overall selection, based upon the average from the last five years. The 26th overall selection for the last five years has been:

2005 - Seattle - Chris Spencer - C - Mississippi
2004 - Cincinnati - Chris Perry - RB - Michigan
2003 - San Francisco - Kwame Harris - T - Stanford
2002 - Philadelphia - Lito Sheppard - CB - Florida
2001 - Miami - Jamar Fletcher - CB - Wisconsin

Up next for the Redskins - a home game against the San Diego Chargers. A loss will bump the average pick higher than the #25 we gave up in 2005 to get the Redskins pick. A win puts us a whole lot closer to winning the AFC West. Either way, we win.

11-14-2005, 02:48 AM	#8
Arkie Ring of Famer Gggggrrrrrr rrrraaaahhh Arrrrhhhn. Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 9,080 Adopt-a-Bronco: Quinton Carter	This is a cool idea for a thread. The Skins can go anywhere from 5-11 to 12-4. That's still an enormous range that covers possible picks #1-#28 or so, but that range will get smaller each week. Last edited by Arkie; 11-14-2005 at 02:53 AM.. Reason: corrected skins lowest possible record to 5-11

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11-03-2005, 05:04 PM	#1
DomCasual The Dude abides. Shameless Homer Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Cocytus Posts: 13,167 Adopt-a-Bronco: Gus Frerotte	Draft Watch - How Low Can We Go? I spent some time today looking at the last five drafts, and the correlation between a team's losses and the position they draft for the following season. I thought it might be kind of cool to follow the Redskins season, and our projected draft position, based upon the number of games they have lost. Right now, it's no big deal. A team with 3 losses has drafted in an average position of Number 30.8. But from here, each time they lose, the number will drop fairly dramatically. So, rounding up, if the Redskins go undefeated the rest of the year, we'll draft #31. I'll keep a running update in this thread with each Redskins loss.

11-03-2005, 05:14 PM	#3
bpc "Nemo Me Impune Lacessit" 1 sword keeps another in the sheath Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Northern California Posts: 12,566 Adopt-a-Bronco: Von Miller	skins are going to collapse down the stretch like the Bucs will.

11-03-2005, 05:32 PM	#5
Hercules Rockefeller Ring of Famer Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 16,005 Adopt-a-Bronco: DJ Williams	and on the flip side 4-12 2002 No one, would have been the 4th worst record though and 5th OA because of the Texans Quentin Jammer 2003 3. Andre Johnson 4. Dwayne Robertson 2004 1. Eli 2. Robert Gallery 3. Larry Fitzgerald 4. Rivers 2005 2. Ronnie Brown 3. Braylon Edwards

11-13-2005, 11:30 PM	#6
DomCasual The Dude abides. Shameless Homer Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Cocytus Posts: 13,167 Adopt-a-Bronco: Gus Frerotte	Okay, so the Redskins loss today gives them four for the year. Since 2001, teams with four losses drafted in an average position of #28. The last five 28th picks have been: 2005 - San Diego - Luis Castillo - DT - Northwestern 2004 - Carolina - Chris Gamble - CB - Ohio St 2003 - Tennessee - Andre Woolfork - CB - Oklahoma 2002 - Seattle - Jerramy Stevens - TE - Washington 2001 - Oakland - Derrick Gibson - S - Florida St Week Eleven has the Raiders going to Washington, so it might be a few weeks before this gets updated with another loss. But in the meantime, um, go Raiders?

11-14-2005, 03:43 AM	#9
Hercules Rockefeller Ring of Famer Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 16,005 Adopt-a-Bronco: DJ Williams	Over the past few years, 5-11 has been 5th overall at best

11-14-2005, 05:28 AM	#10
Drek Ring of Famer Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 12,315	I'm betting 7-9, whats that average draft spot?

11-14-2005, 09:23 AM	#14
ludo21 RIP Darrent Williams Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Glendale, AZ Posts: 17,898 Adopt-a-Bronco: Paul Ernster	Well then, it seems we will probably be around pick 15-20, nice range and i wont have to wait so long to watch the Broncos first pick for once.

11-14-2005, 09:39 AM	#17
Hotrod Self Appointed Expert aka Dortoh Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 25,136 Adopt-a-Bronco: Miss I	Wow great Info.......Heres to a complete deadskins tailspin. Of course it does not make alot of difference Shanny can pretty much get which ever 2 Olineman he wants in the first round this year anyway

11-14-2005, 10:57 AM	#18
Arkie Ring of Famer Gggggrrrrrr rrrraaaahhh Arrrrhhhn. Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 9,080 Adopt-a-Bronco: Quinton Carter	Our skins pick: range = #5 - #28 needs: OL, TE, S These are the players picked in the range over the last 5 years at the target positions. OL 13 -Jammal Brown -2005 19 -Alex Barron -2005 26 -Chris Spencer -2005 16 -Shawn Andrews -2004 19 -Vernon Carey -2004 8 -Jordan Gross -2003 20 -George Foster -2003 21 -Jeff Faine -2003 26 -Kwame Harris -2003 7 -Bryant McKinnie -2002 10 -Levi Jones -2002 14 -Kenyatta Walker -2001 17 -Steve Hutchinson -2001 18 -Jeff Backus -2001 20 -Stockar McDougle -2000 22 -Chris McIntosh -2000 TE 6 -Kellen Winslow -2004 32 -Ben Watson -2004 24 -Dallas Clark -2003 14 -Jeremy Shockey -2002 21 -Daniel Graham -2002 28 -Jerramy Stevens -2002 14 -Bubba Franks -2000 27 -Anthony Becht -2000 S 5 -Sean Taylor -2004 16 -Troy Polamalu -2003 8 -Roy Williams -2002 24 -Ed Reed -2002 20 -Adam Archuleta -2001 28 -Derrick Gibson -2001

11-14-2005, 11:54 AM	#19
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,791	I'd trade both of those Ones plus a player to move up and get Kiwanuka. Anybody see him last week against NC State? The dude is in the mold of Reggie White. Put him on a line with Trevor, Warren and Brown and IT'S OVAH!

11-14-2005, 12:01 PM	#20
Elway 4 Life Pass rushers apply here! Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 1,806 Adopt-a-Bronco: Von Miller	I would love to see Polamahu in orange and blue. That sum b**** is a football player!

11-14-2005, 12:27 PM	#22
Elway 4 Life Pass rushers apply here! Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 1,806 Adopt-a-Bronco: Von Miller	Living 30 minutes north of austin I been able to see about 5 UT games in last 2 years. Huff is an animal. He would be a good addition. I dont even mind that Polamalu has longer hair than my wife. He can flat out play the game.

11-14-2005, 03:21 PM	#24
Hercules Rockefeller Ring of Famer Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 16,005 Adopt-a-Bronco: DJ Williams	Some of you people should look in the draft forum more often

11-20-2005, 05:10 PM	#25
DomCasual The Dude abides. Shameless Homer Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Cocytus Posts: 13,167 Adopt-a-Bronco: Gus Frerotte	Week 10, and the Raiders surprisingly come through. It's not looking good in Redskins-ville. With 5 losses, it drops the Redskins' pick to the 26th overall selection, based upon the average from the last five years. The 26th overall selection for the last five years has been: 2005 - Seattle - Chris Spencer - C - Mississippi 2004 - Cincinnati - Chris Perry - RB - Michigan 2003 - San Francisco - Kwame Harris - T - Stanford 2002 - Philadelphia - Lito Sheppard - CB - Florida 2001 - Miami - Jamar Fletcher - CB - Wisconsin Up next for the Redskins - a home game against the San Diego Chargers. A loss will bump the average pick higher than the #25 we gave up in 2005 to get the Redskins pick. A win puts us a whole lot closer to winning the AFC West. Either way, we win.