|10-02-2005, 03:13 AM||#1|
Ring of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Week Four Action
Flushed with a sense of confidence after the relative success of my 2-2 record last week, I rush fearlessly into week four. That was the plan anyway. I went to the book with three games in mind, but I only walked out with one ticket.
Houston @ Cincinnatti Over 42 1/2 - This was the game I played. Like everybody else, I'm suitably impressed by the Bengals offense this season. They've covered all three games this year. Now they're laying 10 points at home against an underachieving Houston team. Surprisingly, they've also played all three games under the number this year, a trend that should end tomorrow. I think they might hit the total by themselves in this game.
Houston has been horrendous on offense this season. Managing just one touchdown in each blowout loss. I think the firing of offensive coordinator Chris Palmer might have a positive short term effect. The guys who didn't buy into his system should be motivated to look good tomorrow. Maybe some of the others will play harder because they see that management is not afraid to make changes. Either way, I expect them to actually crack double digits for the first time this season. These two clubs played at Cincy in 2003 and combined for 61 points. Hopefully they can crack the much more modest number of 42 1/2.
I still like Oakland to win tomorrow, but decided that I would pass since the number was 3 1/2 and I was too lazy to go price shopping. I gave my reasons for liking Oakland in the other Raider thread and won't rehash them here. I can see laying a field goal, but I don't want to get hooked in this game when I know 3 was available elsewhere.
This also eliminates the ugly ethical dilemma of rooting for Oakland to win tomorrow. Go Cowboys!
I also like San Francisco tomorrow night, but I laid off because the number was only SF +2 1/2 and I saw them +3 in other locations. I'm hoping AZ money will move it back to a field goal before game time. Even if it doesn't, I'll get down on SF and take the +2 1/2, or possibly take them +110 on the money line. They have the wrong favorite in this game.
I can't imagine why AZ is laying points to anybody right now. They're playing very poorly on both sides of the ball and the insertion of Josh McCown into the starting lineup, due to Kurt Warner's injury, was an early deathblow to their season. Frisco is a bad team, but Tim Rattay is a far better quarterback than McCown (and Alex Smith for that matter) will ever be. McCown was mediocre enough, but then Green did everything humanly possible to wreck his confidence last season.
Good luck to everyone else's action!