Ian Gold, a brief statistical analysis.

[Drek]

Ok, so I've been thinking. This whole off-season has in large part been very well played by our front office. We managed to bring in an assortment of promising DL guys in what looked to be an overpriced and undertalented DL FA crop. We added a lot of speedy depth to our DBs pretty cheap as well. All in all Sundquist and Shanny have done a great job (in my opinion) of assembling a low risk/high reward team for '05, while putting us in excellent shape cap and draft wise for '06 and beyond.

So considering all that, I can't help but look at one single off-season move and wonder why. What was Sundquist and Shanny smoking the day they signed Gold to the deal he got this off-season? I know he likely will once again get cut or have to restructure before the big money is payed out, but it still had me wondering about what they see in Gold to make them pay as much money as they did.

My take? Ian Gold is our secret weapon against the Colts and all the teams now trying to be just like them (i.e. Oakland, KC, a few others). He's the Trot Nixon of football, i.e. a great player handicapped by one major weakness. While Nixon can't hit lefties, Gold can't play the run. Nixon mashes on righties though, just like how Ian does his best work against passing teams.

For example, in '06 Ian Gold played five teams rated 11th or higher in total passing yards in the NFL, Kansas City (3rd in the league), St. Louis (4th) Denver (7th), New Orleans (10th), and Carolina (11th). It was a total of 7 games. They also played two games against the Falcons, a team that while not pass heavy is QB focused, for another two games.

In those 9 games Gold had 46 tackles and a pick, versus only 27 in the remaining 7 games, no picks (going by total tackles from ESPN). Thats 5.11 tackles a game versus 3.85, and he wasn't even playing as many downs as you'd expect a starter to in Tampa.

To really figure Gold out though lets look at his '02 season here with us. In 9 games against top 12 passing teams Gold had 61 total tackles, versus 38 in the other 7 games. Thats 6.78 versus 5.43 tackles a game, again over a whole tackle per game difference. Thats with Gold having one horrible game against Buffalo that season (only 3 tackles in the game).

The '05 numbers over a whole 16 game season would give you these two seasons.
3.86 tackle average: 61.6 tot
5.11 tackle average: 81.76 tot

The '02 difference over a 16 game season.
5.43 tackle average: 86.88 tot
6.78 tackle average: 108.48 tot

In both cases about a 20 tackle difference over a whole season, so the over a tackle difference per game would be pretty significant through 16 games.

[Drek]

So to summarize, is Gold worth the money we gave him? I don't think so, but its pretty hard to argue with Gold being a legitimate weapon against strong passing games. Just so happens two of our division rivals fit that description, along with the team that's spoiled the playoffs for us the past two years.

My only real fear is that the F.O. will play Gold significant time on running plays, when in reality we should shift DJ back to weakside and put Pierce, Chuck, or Sykes in at strong side in those cases. Our LB corps last year proved they could stop the run, I don't want Ian Gold messing that up.

FYI, in '05 our 10 non-AFC West games are against:
Miami
Jacksonville
Washington
New England
NYG
Philly
NYJ
Dallas
B'more
Buff

The real challenging teams (NE, PHI, JAX, BAL, NYJ) are 3/5th passing. Not to mention four of our six divisional games are against passing teams. That means before the season even starts we can expect at least seven games in which we'll face strong passing offenses. Also, should Buffalo or NYG be challenging they'll need to do so through the air, since neither has a ground game I'm real worried about.

EDIT: Sorry for deleting the previous thread, the text didn't post for some reason.

[Atlas]

Gold's strong suit is pass coverage and rushing the QB. IMO he was a good signing he definatley gives the Broncos something Spragen couldn't. AN $8million bonus on 5 year contract isn't really that amazing.

[Hulamau]

Gold played strong side for Tampa which he isnt as well suited for as weak side. A totally different situation than with us. Therefore, his numbers at Tampa can't compute to playing teamed up with Big Al and DJ where his strength in pass defense and run pursuit are much better utilized.

[Drek]

Gold played strong side for Tampa which he isnt as well suited for as weak side. A totally different situation than with us. Therefore, his numbers at Tampa can't compute to playing teamed up with Big Al and DJ where his strength in pass defense and run pursuit are much better utilized.

I think you missed the point. Irregardless of who he's played with (Al Wilson and Mobley in '02, or in Tampa last year) he's shown a significant swing in production versus strong passing offenses.

I agree, I think he'll play significantly better on the weak side with Al and DJ next to him and Trev in front of him, as opposed to the now dismantled Bucs. However, its still worth seeing that he's a coverage/pass rush guy, not a run stopper.

I think he still has a role in some run coverage, namely against speed backs. When we play NYG for example, I think he should be in all game because Pierce and Sykes will get outran by Barber while Gold will be able to run with him and Barber is too small to use Gold's lack of size against him.

[Florida_Bronco]

Wow that's pretty good analyasis (sp?) there. I too like Gold and am glad we got him back.

[SoCalBronco]

[Drek]

Totally saw that post coming.

Next thing I'm gonna do (when ESPN gets their player pages 100% back on line) is a solo v. assisted tackle analysis. Spragan had 66 tackles last year, only 44 solos. I didn't even add DJ's up for a ratio because it was pretty clear he crushed Spragan in ending tackles on his own (12 solos in one game). I wonder how many solos Gold put up while playing with Wilson and Mobley, which I'd call a comprable LB corps to what Wilson and DJ were last year (Mobley was more experienced than DJ, plus Wilson had a better '02 than '04 if I recall). I'll probably cross that with a few other linebackers from other teams to gauge if Gold really does have a problem tackling on his own.

FYI, the major impetus for this is that I'm a huge baseball fan and really like the concepts behind sabremetrics. I know I'm not enough of a statistician to do for football what Bill James did for baseball, but its a sport that clearly lends itself to such analysis, as seen by how trusted QB rating has become. I just don't see why this was left as a tool for grading a single position.

edit: just checked Williams' solo/total ratio, he's at .76, 81 solo v. 25 assisted. Talk about finishing your own work! Al was real close, 78 v. 27, for a solo v. total ratio of .74, but its crazy to think that the rookie was finishing off his own tackles better than Wilson!

[FADERPROOF]

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

Same here, but only because he went to Michigan.

[elsid13]

Did anyone have access to the Daily Camera article on Gold? I saw that you need to register now to access their stuff.

[Drek]

Bit of a quick note on solo v. total tackle ratios, I have yet to verify that the best players carry them over from year to year, I'm working on that now. Also, if this does appear as a real skill stat (i.e. carries over from year to year) I would be willing to make the assertion that players with high tackle numbers but poor ratios are overrated, while players with the reverse would be underrated.

Bit of a glance from last year's stats, Kieth Bullocks lead the league in tackles, but had a .68 ratio of solo v. assited. Zach Thomas, #4 on the list, had a rediculous .81 ratio (118 solos v. only 27 assited).

Edit: for anyone interested, take a quick look at the change in Al Wilson's tackle numbers for his career. In '03 he made a ton of tackles (about 130+) and that was the only season until last year that he had over 20 assisted. How big a role did DJ's speed play in that?

I'm also not saying assisted tackles are a negative stat entirely, you want guys with lots of solos, but guys with a lot of assisteds are guys who help their weaker teammates out with making a tackle as well. That is, if they have good overall numbers. Spragan's for example would not make me conclude that he's helping his teammates finish guys off, rather that he got a lot of help from DJ and Al (since there was an overall increase in Al Wilson's assisteds with DJ as well).

Makes you wonder just how valuable an experienced DJ Williams could be.

[SoCalBronco]

Originally Posted by FADERPROOF

Same here, but only because he went to Michigan.

And also because we will now likely pass over A.J. Hawk with our first selection, when we otherwise would have strongly considered a guy of that caliber.

[SoCalBronco]

Originally Posted by elsid13

Did anyone have access to the Daily Camera article on Gold? I saw that you need to register now to access their stuff.

Here you go, although i now have to wash my hands after posting it. It doesnt surprise me at all that he actively rooted against us last year. Scumbag.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Broncos happy to strike Gold again
After year in Tampa, popular LB returns to Denver

By Ryan Thorburn, Camera Sports Writer
August 1, 2005

ENGLEWOOD — Ian Gold wasn't wearing a Peyton Manning jersey or holding up a giant foam finger with a Colts logo on it.

But after feeling slighted by the Broncos last year, the temporary Tampa Bay linebacker wasn't shedding tears while watching Denver's 49-24 postseason loss at Indianapolis from a distance.


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Gold wouldn't wish that kind of public embarrassment on Al Wilson and other friends on his former team.

Still, it feels good to know that you are missed.

"When we played Denver it was good to see the guys, but I definitely wanted to beat them," Gold said when asked where his heart was during the 2004 season. "Even the playoffs, I wanted to see them lose. That's just the nature of the game."

[SoCalBronco]

In the NFL, money is as much a part of the game as winning or losing. And after the 2003 campaign, negotiations between Gold and the Broncos on a new contract were unsuccessful.

The Broncos felt that Gold, who had suffered a serious knee injury on special teams during the season, was asking for too much money, and he eventually had to settle for a back-loaded contract with the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, Mike Shanahan and his staff filled the void nicely by drafting D.J. Williams in the first round.

"What did I learn about myself? I think the most important thing that I've learned is that you can't lose faith," Gold said. "You've got to keep the faith. And as long as you work hard and keep that faith, everything's going to work out for you."

During the 2004 season, Gold admittedly felt like a fish out of water, playing on the strong side of the defense in Tampa, where perennial Pro Bowl selection Derrick Brooks roams the weak side. Back in Denver, Williams was flourishing, and finished his rookie season with a team-high 114 tackles.

"My experience in Tampa was, I'd say life-changing," Gold said. "I got a chance to play with a different group of guys, I got a chance to go down there and learn from one of the best at my position in Brooks. I feel like I learned a lot from him and was kind of a sponge."

Jon Gruden cut a number of veteran players, including Gold, in March to manage his salary cap. Two days later, the Broncos kissed and made up with the linebacker they had lost, presenting him with a five-year, $22.5 million contract that included an $8.5 million signing bonus.

Now the Broncos have Williams on the strong side, and Gold back where they think he belongs, on the other side of Al Wilson.

"It's a pretty good situation," defensive coordinator Larry Coyer said. "It's really nice to have Ian Gold back. ... Ian is bullet fast, he's tenacious, he gets after your butt, and he's going to compete."

It's not like Gold didn't compete in Tampa. Despite playing a new position on a surgically repaired knee, he finished with 120 total tackles — including 70 unassisted — and had an interception.

The pewter and red pants just never looked right on Gold.

"I knew that my heart was here, and I knew how Shanahan felt, and knew how the guys upstairs felt," Gold said. "I just knew that it was going to be a matter of me proving to everybody in this one year that I'm away that I can still perform at a high level."

Perhaps the reason Gold never completely got over the Broncos was the fact that Keith Burns joined him on the one-year hiatus. The vocal veteran proved to be a good listener in Tampa.

"I'm an outgoing person, so it's easy for me to adjust to a lot of circumstances," said Burns, who is also back on the Broncos' roster, signing three weeks after Gold. "Ian really didn't know that many people down there, but he always had me to lean on if he needed anything, or to talk about stuff like the game itself getting frustrating for him. ...

"I think last year was different for him, it was humbling. I think he has matured and it helped him grow up a lot to see that sometimes you may think the grass is greener on the other side and actually it's not."

With Gold back in the fold, the Broncos have arguably the top starting linebacking trio in the league. They're certainly the strength of Coyer's defense.

"If we can stay healthy, we can definitely be the best in the business," Wilson said. "It doesn't feel like Ian left. It feels as if he took a nice little break, but it feels good to have him back."

[FADERPROOF]

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

And also because we will now likely pass over A.J. Hawk with our first selection, when we otherwise would have strongly considered a guy of that caliber.

Yep, both he or Bobby Carpenter from Ohio State would be nice to grab had we not gotten Ian Gold.

[Jason in LA]

Drek, good work on the stats. One thing I'd like to see, if you have the time, is what is the difference in numbers with Al Wilson and DJ. Comparing their numbers to Gold's numbers will tell us something.

[SoCalBronco]

Originally Posted by Jason in LA

Drek, good work on the stats. One thing I'd like to see, if you have the time, is what is the difference in numbers with Al Wilson and DJ. Comparing their numbers to Gold's numbers will tell us something.

I dont think it will tell us much on what is the ranking of all three of them. Gold will have his numbers artificially bumped up due to his position. Maybe if we can saw off 25-30 tackles or so, than we can make a more accurate look at all three.

[DivineLegion]

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

Here you go, although i now have to wash my hands after posting it. It doesnt surprise me at all that he actively rooted against us last year. Scumbag.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Broncos happy to strike Gold again
After year in Tampa, popular LB returns to Denver

By Ryan Thorburn, Camera Sports Writer
August 1, 2005

ENGLEWOOD — Ian Gold wasn't wearing a Peyton Manning jersey or holding up a giant foam finger with a Colts logo on it.

But after feeling slighted by the Broncos last year, the temporary Tampa Bay linebacker wasn't shedding tears while watching Denver's 49-24 postseason loss at Indianapolis from a distance.


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Gold wouldn't wish that kind of public embarrassment on Al Wilson and other friends on his former team.

Still, it feels good to know that you are missed.

"When we played Denver it was good to see the guys, but I definitely wanted to beat them," Gold said when asked where his heart was during the 2004 season. "Even the playoffs, I wanted to see them lose. That's just the nature of the game."

Maybe he will realy go out there and break a leg for us this season...That would fix all of our problems...

[Dukes]

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

"Even the playoffs, I wanted to see them lose. That's just the nature of the game."

Someone was bitter last season

[elsid13]

I don't blame him, the team that he wanted to play for rejected him. It like the woman that you loved since high school and told you she loved you, then goes live with another guy. It only human to be bitter.

[SoCalBronco]

Originally Posted by elsid13

I don't blame him, the team that he wanted to play for rejected him. It like the woman that you loved since high school and told you she loved you, then goes live with another guy. It only human to be bitter.

I dont think he wanted to play for us. I dont believe its a situation where we didnt want him. We gave him an even better offer than he signed for this year. We wanted to see what offers he got so that we could have the chance to match it and he refused to allow us to do that. We tried to call him up right when we were on the clock with the 17th pick and negotiate with him some more to keep him here. I dont think Ian can reasonably believe that we didnt want him. Merely because we werent willing to give him a signing bonus equal to or greater than the 12 million bonus that we gave Al Wilson doesnt mean we didnt want him. I wish the team didnt want him but unfortuneatly they did. Its a product of his mind alone that created the erroneous belief that we didnt want him.

[Drek]

It's not like Gold didn't compete in Tampa. Despite playing a new position on a surgically repaired knee, he finished with 120 total tackles — including 70 unassisted — and had an interception.

I've always found ESPN's tackle numbers to be somewhat inflated and they had him for about 70 total, not 70 unassisted last season. This Daily Camera or whatever's numbers appear completely wrong to me.

Drek, good work on the stats. One thing I'd like to see, if you have the time, is what is the difference in numbers with Al Wilson and DJ. Comparing their numbers to Gold's numbers will tell us something.

Well, I've looked at all three numbers in terms of solos v. totals (neither Al nor DJ appear to have a real clear variance v. passing or running teams, they both just make plays), and Gold looks like a guy who finishes off his tackles without much help. '04 was a worse year by solo v. total ratios than what Gold did in '02. In '02 Gold had 99 total tackles, 87 solo, and 12 assisted, for better than an .87 ratio. Thats freakishly good really, but then, Gold only has two years of quality stats to base that on. Its easier to see a game by game anomaly over two healthy seasons than something as tricky as tacking ability.

Conversely, Al Wilson has a career .8 ratio, a .78 in '02, his best overall season to date. Last year was a .74, '03 was his biggest ratio, a .84, but I'm sure we'll all agree it was a disapointing season for him overall. This leads me to believe that Al should be in line for a career season. He plays with speed 'backers well and now will be bookended by two of them.

Here's the odd thing with Al though. in his two best seasons ('02 and '04) he's had worse ratios. Is that because he finishes off more teammate tackles, or is he having his own finished off? Neither Ian nor DJ seems to require a lot of help in that department, and he's played with one of each in his two best seasons. I get the feeling that Al is ideal at setting up ballcarriers for his speed backs to then missle into, as well as probably helping the interior DTs finish off their tackles (hence our good run stopping each year we've had him at MLB despite many scrubs playing DT).

[DivineLegion]

SoCal wants AJ Hawk and hes bitter but when he takes off his homer goggles he should see that because Ian is such a prick and left last offseason we got DJ...so realy he should thank him for being a money misering prick and then damn him for costing us an excuse to draft an awsome LB...

[elsid13]

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

I dont think he wanted to play for us. I dont believe its a situation where we didnt want him. We gave him an even better offer than he signed for this year. We wanted to see what offers he got so that we could have the chance to match it and he refused to allow us to do that. We tried to call him up right when we were on the clock with the 17th pick and negotiate with him some more to keep him here. I dont think Ian can reasonably believe that we didnt want him. Merely because we werent willing to give him a signing bonus equal to or greater than the 12 million bonus that we gave Al Wilson doesnt mean we didnt want him. I wish the team didnt want him but unfortuneatly they did. Its a product of his mind alone that created the erroneous belief that we didnt want him.

Pulling from memories, I remember that Shanny went to visit Gold in the hospital after the injury, with "don't worry, we take care of you, even though you injuried" line. Then The POLSON brothers showed up and convinced Gold that he was going to get paid the big bucks. So when the Front Office "low balled" him, he went to Tampa, pissed off. Now that Polson are out of the picture and he back. I think he personnel favorite of Coyer so let see how it work out.

[SoCalBronco]

Originally Posted by DivineLegion

SoCal wants AJ Hawk and hes bitter but when he takes off his homer goggles he should see that because Ian is such a prick and left last offseason we got DJ...so realy he should thank him for being a money misering prick and then damn him for costing us an excuse to draft an awsome LB...

Yes, that is one side benefit of the whole situation. I'll give you that although at the same time it doesnt give me a great deal of confidence in the front office knowing that DJ wouldnt have been a Bronco but for 1) Gold refusing the team's very generous offers at the very last moment when we were on the clock to keep him here as their first choice as opposed to simply stopping negotiations when they got to Pick 17 and DJ was still on the clock and 2) from various pieces of anecdotal evidence, DJ being the 4th choice among the team's 4 targets at that pick and them "having to settle" for him since he was the only one left. It seems just like a coincidence that that we ended up with him. Doesnt inspire alot of confidence in the FO in terms of their ability to spot talent.