Dr. Z: Ratings game (Lelie and Bailey)

[bloodsunday]

I know many of us don't like Dr. Z, but try to take of the orange-colored glasses when you read this:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ems/index.html

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One man's passion leads to intriguing player analysis
Posted: Wednesday June 22, 2005 1:49PM; Updated: Wednesday June 22, 2005 1:50PM

It must have been about 15 years ago. I was at a dinner party in San Francisco, and I'd come from the 49ers' practice field, and I had my Big Book with me. I had it with me because I didn't feel safe leaving it in the car -- if it were ever lost or stolen, I'd have to kill myself.

The Big Book was, and is, my record of everything that happens to each team, week-by-week box scores, plus notes (game notes in black, trades and player movement in green, injuries in red, anything else, such as arrests or contract situations, in blue). It is 250 pages long and it lives in a five-subject binder made by Dennison Company in Framingham, Mass. They stopped making the 250-pagers a few years ago and cut down the size. I went into mourning. I should have stocked up and laid in a supply of about 50 of them, because I vitally need the 250 pages. If anyone still has any, please let me know and I'll buy them off you.

If I write small enough I can get three years into one of those big ones. But the key is writing small, real small, so small that sometimes I can't read it. Anyway, the Big Book was sitting there, minding its own business during dinner, and some woman reached over and picked it up and started thumbing through it.

"Oh my God, you've got to see this," she said to her husband. So they began tee-heeing and then they passed it around and people were practicing their one-liners on the poor thing. I made a noise like an oyster because I was used to it. Who cares what a bunch of Bay Area hoity toits think?

But one woman, actually the one I liked best at that gathering, got furious.

"Don't you understand what you're looking at?" she said to them. "You're looking at passion!"

Now let's fast forward 15 years. KC Joyner of Altamonte Springs, Fla., has sent me a copy of his magnum opus, Scientific Football 2005, a 467-page analysis of the NFL passing game, featuring the damnedest array of charts you've ever seen. And in tiny agate type, no less. KC Joyner calls himself The Football Scientist, and I could be a wiseguy and say that his book looks like a lab report, but I wouldn't do that.

Instead I asked the Flaming Redhead what she thought of it.

"Looks like yours," she said, with no trace of a smile. That's right. Looks like mine. Not so much my Big Book but my charts, except that his go into a lot more depth in the passing game. I've got to divide mine between passing and running, featuring linemen who block well and who don't, defenders who can and can't play the run, and stuff like that. Plus, my access is limited because I only see eight games a weekend. Joyner sees all 16, or 14 when the bye is in effect.

A few years ago he decided he wanted to present to the public the most in-depth analysis the passing game has ever undergone. So he quit his $50,000 a year job in telecom to see if he could actually, within the framework of time allotted, break down NFL passing the way he wanted to.

Well, I've never seen such a complete look at this phase of the game. Each passer is evaluated on the basis of every type of pass he delivers, and at every range (short, medium, deep), and from every kind of drop (three step, five, seven, seven moving up to three, scrambling, scrambling and pulling up and throwing, passing off a half roll or a sprint out, and so on). Receivers get the same treatment. So do defenders. Then they get rated and graded. So do the teams themselves, the different units, the sackers and pass blockers, etc.

If there are 500 of you out there who simply must have this book, even though it bears a $49.95 price tag, then the money KC spent to publish it himself will be covered. You can get it by e-mailing him at KC@thefootballscientist.com, or writing to him at Box 161605 Altamonte Springs, Fla., 32716-1605. But I must warn you. You must attack the statistics section, the charts, with a clear head and a good night's sleep. If you doze for a few seconds, if you let your attention wander, you'll have a hard time catching up. The abbreviations will drive you nuts, too. Study the keys in front of each section very, very carefully.

If it were just a collection of numbers, I wouldn't be spending this much time on it, but here's the thing that caught my eye: the quality of the observations. We are constantly being deluged by crap, by cliches, whether in the newspapers or on TV. The same old blah blah, how much fun Brett Favre is having out there ... after he has thrown his third interception. What a great team guy Terrell Owens has turned into ... after Donovan McNabb walks almost the entire length of the bench to get away from him. Ray Lewis' great leadership ... because he's got the old fist-in-the-air routine down pat. And so forth.

But the observation Joyner affords on every team, while I didn't agree with all of them, are striking because they are based on non-emotional, non-promotional facts. His facts.

Some random observations ... on the Broncos' wideout Ashley Lelie, for instance: "It isn't a stretch to say that Lelie was possibly the most dangerous deep threat in the NFL last season. He had the second most deep passes thrown to him, and ranked 20th in deep pass completion percentage (42 percent). He only faced tight/good coverage 24 percent of the time on deep passes, ranking him 11th in the league, and was open by two or more steps on deep passes 11 percent of the time. His success on deep routes made his overall yards per attempt the seventh highest in the league.

"It's a damn good thing Lelie was good at deep passes because he frankly stunk at the other depth levels."

Or on consensus All-Pro cornerback Champ Bailey: "Bailey was 79th in deep yards (first being the fewest), tied for 73rd in deep completion percentage, tied for 16th most in deep attempts, tied for 69th in deep TDs ... Bailey wasn't just beaten deep; he was targeted for deep passes quite frequently."

Or how about the Vikings' little-known TE, Jermaine Wiggins? "The most amazing stat ... Wiggins was thrown 102 passes but only one of them was deep ... He ranked second in the league in medium completion percentage and first in short completion percentage ... Wiggins is not the best receiving tight end in the league (he is not even close), but he's the best short-receiving tight end. He will have a role in this offense regardless of how vertical the Vikings decide to be this year. He is a perfect fit in his role and could threaten for the Pro Bowl."

Two things that I like best are ripping the established stars or basic untouchables who seldom get that treatment, and praising the unknowns. Here are a couple of major league rips.

Eli Manning: "One of the things I can't stand as an analyst is hype. Some of the PR in this league simply bugs me no end, and the Eli Manning PR probably bugs me more than just about any other. Eli played so poorly last year that at one point I pulled out the thesaurus, as I simply couldn't find the words to describe how poorly Eli Manning was playing ... Abominable, appalling, deplorable, ghastly and unsightly all seemed to hit the spot. Eli's list of mistakes was nearly as long as Mike Vick's."

Or Kurt Warner, not a star anymore but considered, in some quarters, as some kind of miracle fix for the Cardinals: "If Warner brings that blind bull in a China shop pocket presence to Arizona, he'll have a very long season. Arizona doesn't have the RB that the Giants had, or the TE. Their receivers are long on press clippings and short on performance and their offensive line will likely be a big issue. Warner is going to have to adjust to his circumstances."

Finally, a nice little plug for Philly's right cornerback, Sheldon Brown, who was not a Pro Bowl choice and made only one all-pro team last year: mine. "I knew Brown was good, going into this review, but when I saw his stat lines my jaw dropped ... he only allowed one TD, despite facing 117 passes ... Brown allowed a mere two completions on 24 deep passes, which ranked second in the league...I don't get a commission for his Honolulu plane ticket and hotel room, but I like to see justice served. If he plays this well next year, he ought to not just go to the Pro Bowl. He should be an All-Pro."

Eventually, I placed a phone call to KC Joyner. Why, I wanted to know, didn't his stats match the official NFL ones?

"Hurricanes and blackouts," he said. "I was quite upset about the hurricanes. They made me miss six games. I got my brothers and my dad to record some others for me.

"Jacksonville's home games are blacked out where I live because they don't sell out. They don't even sell out for playoffs. But you'll find my stats are different in other areas, too, because I tape all games, including playoffs."

I asked him how many games he could tape in a single day. He said "All of them." And how many DVDs did he have all going at once? "Twelve, if I need them," he said. I asked him how that all worked and I was immediately sorry because he launched into a long explanation of splitters and A and B switches and toggles (Did I write that correctly? Maybe he meant Jesse Tuggle, the old Falcons' linebacker) that gave me a case of the stupids.

Finally I asked him if he were happy, putting himself into a meat grinder like this.

"Once I got worried because I was so consumed by football," he said. "I asked my step-sister, Melissa, 'Is it a curse that I love football so much?'

"She said, 'Most people go through their lives without finding any one thing to love so much ... a person, maybe, but not a thing. Be thankful. You've found it.'"

[bloodsunday]

I don't think that many of us on the Mane would argue with the analysis of Lelie -- he simply has to get better/more consistent on plays the don't involve busted coverage and Jake scrambling.

But wow that was a pretty harsh analysis of Bailey! There are probably reasons for this, but there is certainly some truth to it. I think that the three reasons that come to my mind are a) Bailey playing a gambling style a bit too much b) poor help from the safeties and c) poor pass rush allowing the QB time for long routes to develop.

The good news here is that here are two ways our team can get better without even considering FA or draft players. If Lelie can pick up his game and our Defense (as a whole) can cut down the deep pass mishaps, then we are already a better team. While I say the whole defense needs improve on the deep pass mishaps, I do think Bailey needs to step up his game. He is simply paid too much money and given too much responsibility to be exposed that often. It hurts, but its the truth.

[Atlas]

This was already posted .

On a different subject I did like you said and took off my orange colored glasses and was sent screaming into the darkest corner of my house. I went to the Emergency room with burnt retinas. You'll be hearing from my lawyer. My orange colored glasses are back on and expected to stay there.

[SJ Bronco]

I think this guy is just like the hype machine he hates so much. I'd read the book though if it was 30 bucks or so. Im curiouse to see what he says about some other wide outs and DB's. His analysis of Lelie is pretty alright, but its tough to say someone is bad at short routs because they don't throw it to him short...also, the guy watches all the games on TV and thinks he can get accurate performace and potential from that? He needs to get on a plane and watch some practices and talk to some people.

[bloodsunday]

Originally Posted by Atlas

This was already posted.

Sorry. I scanned (briefly) the posts and didn't see this one. I have been out of the loop (vacation and no NFL worthy news).

[Atlas]

Originally Posted by bloodsunday

Sorry. I scanned (briefly) the posts and didn't see this one. I have been out of the loop (vacation and no NFL worthy news).

You have really slipped lately. We expect you back in here and ready to go.

[fontaine]

Originally Posted by bloodsunday

I don't think that many of us on the Mane would argue with the analysis of Lelie -- he simply has to get better/more consistent on plays the don't involve busted coverage and Jake scrambling.

But wow that was a pretty harsh analysis of Bailey! There are probably reasons for this, but there is certainly some truth to it. I think that the three reasons that come to my mind are a) Bailey playing a gambling style a bit too much b) poor help from the safeties and c) poor pass rush allowing the QB time for long routes to develop.

The good news here is that here are two ways our team can get better without even considering FA or draft players. If Lelie can pick up his game and our Defense (as a whole) can cut down the deep pass mishaps, then we are already a better team. While I say the whole defense needs improve on the deep pass mishaps, I do think Bailey needs to step up his game. He is simply paid too much money and given too much responsibility to be exposed that often. It hurts, but its the truth.

I know Bailey gets a lot of criticism for giving up on a few big plays but I have no complaints. NONE.

In 2003 Denver's pass defense was in the bottom half of the league in giving up big pass plays (over 20 yards).

When Bailey came on board (even with Walls/Pryce/Berry not there) Denver's pass defense shot up and we were one of the best defenses in the league in limiting big pass plays.

[TerrElway]

Originally Posted by Atlas

You have really slipped lately. We expect you back in here and ready to go.

Atlas, your avatars always ROCK!!!!!!

Does this schmoe do this for free or for fun or what? Is he freakin' Rainman?

Does he take into account ALL of the things a position player is required to do? Champ Bailey is routinely locked up on the opposing team's #1 WR is Sheldon Brown? The Eagles get a pass rush on opposing QB's forcing an early release or a bad pass etc. while the Broncos had a pass rush slightly better than the Idaho School for double amputees. What about run support? What about the quality of Philly's safeties and their help D?

I think his analysis of Lelie is pretty good actually and to be fair, I was a bit disappointed with Champ's tendency to get beat on a deep ball last year as well, but the NFL has turned into an offense-only league and I think that means the days of guys like Lester Hayes, Deion and even Champ as true "shut-down" guys are over.

The other thing I don't like from the examples given is that everything is just a b****fest. "I don't like all the hype...." WAH!!! So you are going to write a whole book b****ing about how bad everyone sucks? Here's a suggestion for Mary-Kate Mcwhinerson, get out of your mom's basement and go play a game. Any game son.

I guess you have to admire the guys passion but still...

[Hercules Rockefeller]

The hard numbers aren't given, which makes his analysis worthless when you're talking about deep balls. There simply aren't that many thrown each game. 1 or 2 completions could result in a large movement among his "rankings", and there's going to be a ton of ties. This isn't an analysis of RBs with 300+ carries, it's an analysis of corners with something that might happen 2-3 times a game.

[TheReverend]

I love how sometimes stats matter to analysts and sometimes they dont. When Denvers involved, they matter (ie: Browns defense was 32nd against the run or whatever, plummer's INTs, lelie and bailey), but if the media loves that team, the Pats for example, they turn a blind eye (Brady's numbers suck but hes "the second best QB in the league").

Isnt Dr Z the idiot who said Marino would never make it in the NFL and wed never beat Green Bay in the superbowl? **** all these guys.

[bloodsunday]

Originally Posted by Atlas

You have really slipped lately. We expect you back in here and ready to go.

Yeah I can only debate the roster changes so much. And since the NFL is in full layoff mode for another month, there just isn't much to be said. But you'll here plenty from me when training camp begins

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by bloodsunday

Yeah I can only debate the roster changes so much. And since the NFL is in full layoff mode for another month, there just isn't much to be said. But you'll here plenty from me when training camp begins

The NFL might be in lay off mode but were one week away from our minicamp... finally.

[bloodsunday]

Originally Posted by fontaine

I know Bailey gets a lot of criticism for giving up on a few big plays but I have no complaints. NONE.

In 2003 Denver's pass defense was in the bottom half of the league in giving up big pass plays (over 20 yards).

When Bailey came on board (even with Walls/Pryce/Berry not there) Denver's pass defense shot up and we were one of the best defenses in the league in limiting big pass plays.

Yeah, the stats can be deceiving. And it is kind of the nature of what we do with Bailey -- when he has a bad play he will get noticed. I still think that our pass defense as a whole can take it up another notch. Bailey has another level and our safeties (in coverage) and defensive line (pass rushing) can only improve from last year. I think Nick (or maybe Browner or LeSeur) could be a huge upgrade in coverage. Nothing can be worse than watching Kerry Collins drink Rum and Coke as he waits for his receivers to come open, so I say the prospects are promising.

[Mediator12]

Originally Posted by bloodsunday

Yeah, the stats can be deceiving. And it is kind of the nature of what we do with Bailey -- when he has a bad play he will get noticed. I still think that our pass defense as a whole can take it up another notch. Bailey has another level and our safeties (in coverage) and defensive line (pass rushing) can only improve from last year. I think Nick (or maybe Browner or LeSeur) could be a huge upgrade in coverage. Nothing can be worse than watching Kerry Collins drink Rum and Coke as he waits for his receivers to come open, so I say the prospects are promising.

Here is a true stat that this hoser missed in his analysis of Bailey. Over 50% of the deep balls that were completed versus Champ were blown deep safety coverages in Zone coverage (Nice knowing you Kennoy). Someone please tell me this guy understands that lining up beside a WR before the snap does not indicate that you are necessarily covering him. I mean Champ Blitzed 7 times last year, were those completions against him too?

3 of the 9 completions were after Champ had fallen which accounted for three of the four TD's (no thanks to John Lynch who tried to touch down Clayton v. TB). He definitely needs to stay on his feet better, that nike shoe deal better get him some better traction.

Plus, of all of Denver's long pass plays surrendered last year, 41 of 20+, 31 were in Zone coverage. That is 75% of plays over 20 were poor zone coverages. This is the primary reason Coyer plays more man than zone in this scheme.

[bloodsunday]

Originally Posted by Mediator12

Here is a true stat that this hoser missed in his analysis of Bailey. Over 50% of the deep balls that were completed versus Champ were blown deep safety coverages in Zone coverage (Nice knowing you Kennoy). Someone please tell me this guy understands that lining up beside a WR before the snap does not indicate that you are necessarily covering him. I mean Champ Blitzed 7 times last year, were those completions against him too?

3 of the 9 completions were after Champ had fallen which accounted for three of the four TD's (no thanks to John Lynch who tried to touch down Clayton v. TB). He definitely needs to stay on his feet better, that nike shoe deal better get him some better traction.

Plus, of all of Denver's long pass plays surrendered last year, 41 of 20+, 31 were in Zone coverage. That is 75% of plays over 20 were poor zone coverages. This is the primary reason Coyer plays more man than zone in this scheme.

Good stuff. I say we just start putting the QB on his ass and let the rest take care of itself.

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

Originally Posted by bloodsunday

Good stuff. I say we just start putting the QB on his ass and let the rest take care of itself.

BINGO