SoCal's Election Night Primer - The Orange Mane

SoCalBronco · 10-30-2004, 09:15 PM

i cant wait. I always love turning on the tube on election night and looking at the numbers rolling in from the first precincts sitting in my chair with the little legal pad adding up electoral numbers up and down based on the information that keeps coming out.

There will be several key points on tuesday night.
First, New Jersey and New Hampshire. Kerry has a better than 50-50 shot of taking down one of Bush's small state wins last time in New Hampshire. If he can pull this out, it will insulate him from the likely loss of New Mexico later in the evening. New Jersey on the other hand represents a possible (but highly unlikely) upset possibility for the Republicans. Alot of polls have it in a rough dead heat although today's polls have Kerry ahead by a few points outside of the margin of error so i do not expect the President to come close to pulling this one out. If Bush can win one of these two states, it will be gravy, although i expect Kerry to hold on by a slim 2 points in NH, while he will cruise to a 7 point win in New Jersey. A Bush win in New Jersey would probably spell doom for Kerry for the evening.

Second, Pennsylvania. Bush did not quite get the suburban support last time to offset massively impressive numbers from Al Gore in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh resulting in a 51-47 finish in 2000. Lately Polls have had this state generally going with Kerry BUT in almost every poll it has been within the margin of error. My gut also tells me Kerry is ahead here by about 3 right now. Certainly Bush can win it, but the Republican GOTV machine has to look more like it did in 2002 rather than 2000. I think President Bush will do a little bit better in the suburbs this time but again not quite enough to overcome Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. I think Kerry will win Pennsylvania by three points. If Bush, however, is to pull this state out, it will be very difficult for Kerry to win this election.

Then, we come to the twin main events of the evening. At this point, i expect Kerry to have won NH, NJ and Penn. But still it is in Ohio and Florida where Bush can withstand these losses and win the ballgame. If President Bush holds on in both states, it is almost certain he will win the election. I tend to believe he is slightly more vulnerable in Ohio than Florida. I am feeling good about Florida but if the Fla. Dem. Party can muster a 90-100 K vote advantage in Broward and Dade Counties, Bush might not have the numbers elsewhere to counter. Nonetheless, i am feeling fairly good because today's Mason Dixon poll has him ahead by 4, and two polls yesterday also had him out ahead. I am also buoyed by the assertion by a supposed source in the National Journal that Bush has roughly a 100,000 vote edge on Kerry in absentee ballots in Florida, a margin ahead of what he had on Gore last time. We will see though, it would not surprise me in the LEAST if Kerry won Florida. Both parties have really invested alot of time and money in anticipation of the last second ground game. In Ohio, it will also be very close. Its really 50-50 and its all turnout. If Kerry wins both these states (and won NH, NJ and Penn) the election will be all but over barring a miracle. That miracle would be defined as follows. I figure he starts out at 278 (2000's states won with a 7 point bonus for reapportionment). You take NH away i believe that is 5. You take Fla. and Ohio away thats a combined 46 if im not mistaken. The President is then sitting at around 228. He would have to get a mild upset in Minnesota, a real upset (although polls are close) in Michigan and win close contests in Wisconsin and Iowa thats around 37 votes. That puts him around 265 and it is expected he will pick off New Mexico and its 5 votes from the Dem camp that would put him at 270. A tall order to say the least.

SoCalBronco · 10-30-2004, 09:18 PM

In the likely event that the states are split, it will get even more fun. All eyes should then be focused on Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. If Bush can win 2 of these 3 he will still win the election. Wisconsin and Iowa look like better prospects for a Republican pick up than Minnesota but it isnt unreasonable to see either candidate win all three.
If Bush can only pick up 1 of 3, the election will be over unless he can somehow pull Michigan out of the hat. I personally dont think he can. It will be close though and we will see first hand if the GOP GOTV effort comes through as it did in 2002.

Hogan11 · 10-30-2004, 09:47 PM

All I know is if Kerry wins, I'll laugh my ass off

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, but if'n I were to guess right now, I'd say he's a one termer at best.

If W wins, it's more of the friggin same....at least it'll be his last four years...I can take solace in that fact because I don't like him at all....hopefully they'll go as fast as his first four did.

Crushaholic · 10-31-2004, 01:48 AM

What's the over/under on suits/countersuits?

I don't see this being resolved until the next day...AT LEAST. States will want to make SURE that they have accurate results.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN · 10-31-2004, 01:51 AM

Bush got 47.9 percent of the vote in 2000, and that’s where he is stuck today. A record voter turnout is expected, and that signals change, not four more years of the status quo.

The story that broke late Thursday about the Bush campaign using a doctored photo in an ad should help drive home Kerry’s message in the final days. The image used is reminiscent of Bush’s parading on an aircraft carrier flight deck to declare major combat operations over in Iraq. Here he stands as the commander in chief before cheering troops, except on close examination, the same faces are repeated over and over in the crowd. The ad uses troops as props and manipulates the scene to create a Hollywood computer-generated picture of a war president. Kerry spokesman Joe Lockhart issued a statement demanding that the Bush campaign pull the ad, saying, “Now we know why this ad is named, ‘Whatever it takes'.”

The White House has spent four years creating a fantasy world around Bush. Win or lose on Tuesday, the mistakes Bush has made in Iraq have caught up with him.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6363063/site/newsweek/

L.A. BRONCOS FAN · 10-31-2004, 01:03 AM

Zogby: Kerry Will Win

http://nydailynews.com/front/story/247447p-211694c.html

Pollster John Zogby, in a telephone interview with me yesterday, predicted that John Kerry will win the election. "It's close," he said, "but in the last couple of days things have been trending toward Kerry - nationally and in the swing states. Between this and history, I think it will be Kerry."

When Zogby talks, politicians listen. He made his bones in the Bill Clinton-Bob Dole election of 1996, when he came within one-tenth of a percentage point of the final tally.

Bronco Yoda · 10-31-2004, 02:14 AM

Kerry will pull out the electoral vote and many will tantrum when he is now referred to as the unelected billionaress-boy-toy.

Bush will narrowly get the popular vote. Charges of voter fraud done by the libs and vote tampering by the neo-cons flood the news.

Thousands of lawyers from each side will do battle for 40 days and 40 nights.

....In the end skull and bones will continue their bent on world domination.

Haleburton's top brass will all retire to a private and exclusive south pacific Island to play lawn bowling with all the U.N. oil-for-food pirates.

....and we all go back to bending over french kissing the all mighty U.N.

Canadian prescription drug prices triple in price overnight.

We get to keep a swanky Iraqi embassy-city as air traffic control for Israeli fighters heading towards Iran.

The War will only cost us 20 times more than we thought it would. good thing that Iraqi oil money promises to pitch in now that gas is $5.00 a gallon.

Bin Laden dirty bombs California (hope I move in time) so we give it back to Mexico and declare imagration now under control. Kerry will run with this in 2008 election.

Teresa Heinz Kerry announces her new reality tv show rivaling Trump and Branson...

DrFate · 10-31-2004, 06:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

i cant wait. I always love turning on the tube on election night and looking at the numbers rolling in from the first precincts sitting in my chair with the little legal pad adding up electoral numbers up and down based on the information that keeps coming out.

So basically, you are saying it will be close, right?

10-30-2004, 09:15 PM	#1
SoCalBronco Nixonite Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Arcadia, CA Posts: 33,305 Adopt-a-Bronco: D.J. Williams	SoCal's Election Night Primer i cant wait. I always love turning on the tube on election night and looking at the numbers rolling in from the first precincts sitting in my chair with the little legal pad adding up electoral numbers up and down based on the information that keeps coming out. There will be several key points on tuesday night. First, New Jersey and New Hampshire. Kerry has a better than 50-50 shot of taking down one of Bush's small state wins last time in New Hampshire. If he can pull this out, it will insulate him from the likely loss of New Mexico later in the evening. New Jersey on the other hand represents a possible (but highly unlikely) upset possibility for the Republicans. Alot of polls have it in a rough dead heat although today's polls have Kerry ahead by a few points outside of the margin of error so i do not expect the President to come close to pulling this one out. If Bush can win one of these two states, it will be gravy, although i expect Kerry to hold on by a slim 2 points in NH, while he will cruise to a 7 point win in New Jersey. A Bush win in New Jersey would probably spell doom for Kerry for the evening. Second, Pennsylvania. Bush did not quite get the suburban support last time to offset massively impressive numbers from Al Gore in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh resulting in a 51-47 finish in 2000. Lately Polls have had this state generally going with Kerry BUT in almost every poll it has been within the margin of error. My gut also tells me Kerry is ahead here by about 3 right now. Certainly Bush can win it, but the Republican GOTV machine has to look more like it did in 2002 rather than 2000. I think President Bush will do a little bit better in the suburbs this time but again not quite enough to overcome Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. I think Kerry will win Pennsylvania by three points. If Bush, however, is to pull this state out, it will be very difficult for Kerry to win this election. Then, we come to the twin main events of the evening. At this point, i expect Kerry to have won NH, NJ and Penn. But still it is in Ohio and Florida where Bush can withstand these losses and win the ballgame. If President Bush holds on in both states, it is almost certain he will win the election. I tend to believe he is slightly more vulnerable in Ohio than Florida. I am feeling good about Florida but if the Fla. Dem. Party can muster a 90-100 K vote advantage in Broward and Dade Counties, Bush might not have the numbers elsewhere to counter. Nonetheless, i am feeling fairly good because today's Mason Dixon poll has him ahead by 4, and two polls yesterday also had him out ahead. I am also buoyed by the assertion by a supposed source in the National Journal that Bush has roughly a 100,000 vote edge on Kerry in absentee ballots in Florida, a margin ahead of what he had on Gore last time. We will see though, it would not surprise me in the LEAST if Kerry won Florida. Both parties have really invested alot of time and money in anticipation of the last second ground game. In Ohio, it will also be very close. Its really 50-50 and its all turnout. If Kerry wins both these states (and won NH, NJ and Penn) the election will be all but over barring a miracle. That miracle would be defined as follows. I figure he starts out at 278 (2000's states won with a 7 point bonus for reapportionment). You take NH away i believe that is 5. You take Fla. and Ohio away thats a combined 46 if im not mistaken. The President is then sitting at around 228. He would have to get a mild upset in Minnesota, a real upset (although polls are close) in Michigan and win close contests in Wisconsin and Iowa thats around 37 votes. That puts him around 265 and it is expected he will pick off New Mexico and its 5 votes from the Dem camp that would put him at 270. A tall order to say the least. __________________ ITS A PLAYOFF HOCKEY NIGHT IN PITTSBURGH!

10-30-2004, 09:18 PM	#2
SoCalBronco Nixonite Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Arcadia, CA Posts: 33,305 Adopt-a-Bronco: D.J. Williams	In the likely event that the states are split, it will get even more fun. All eyes should then be focused on Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. If Bush can win 2 of these 3 he will still win the election. Wisconsin and Iowa look like better prospects for a Republican pick up than Minnesota but it isnt unreasonable to see either candidate win all three. If Bush can only pick up 1 of 3, the election will be over unless he can somehow pull Michigan out of the hat. I personally dont think he can. It will be close though and we will see first hand if the GOP GOTV effort comes through as it did in 2002. __________________ ITS A PLAYOFF HOCKEY NIGHT IN PITTSBURGH!

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10-30-2004, 09:47 PM	#3
Hogan11 Rock-N-Roll Historian Let's take these SOB's out!!!!!! Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: W.NY.B.C. Posts: 21,300 Adopt-a-Bronco: Floyd Little	All I know is if Kerry wins, I'll laugh my ass off I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, but if'n I were to guess right now, I'd say he's a one termer at best. If W wins, it's more of the friggin same....at least it'll be his last four years...I can take solace in that fact because I don't like him at all....hopefully they'll go as fast as his first four did.

10-31-2004, 01:48 AM	#4
Crushaholic Armchair Poster Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Topeka, KS Posts: 22,043	What's the over/under on suits/countersuits? I don't see this being resolved until the next day...AT LEAST. States will want to make SURE that they have accurate results.

10-31-2004, 01:51 AM	#5
L.A. BRONCOS FAN Mo' holla fo' yo' dolla! Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: In a bunker in an undisclosed location Posts: 52,694	Bush got 47.9 percent of the vote in 2000, and that’s where he is stuck today. A record voter turnout is expected, and that signals change, not four more years of the status quo. The story that broke late Thursday about the Bush campaign using a doctored photo in an ad should help drive home Kerry’s message in the final days. The image used is reminiscent of Bush’s parading on an aircraft carrier flight deck to declare major combat operations over in Iraq. Here he stands as the commander in chief before cheering troops, except on close examination, the same faces are repeated over and over in the crowd. The ad uses troops as props and manipulates the scene to create a Hollywood computer-generated picture of a war president. Kerry spokesman Joe Lockhart issued a statement demanding that the Bush campaign pull the ad, saying, “Now we know why this ad is named, ‘Whatever it takes'.” The White House has spent four years creating a fantasy world around Bush. Win or lose on Tuesday, the mistakes Bush has made in Iraq have caught up with him. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6363063/site/newsweek/

10-31-2004, 01:03 AM	#6
L.A. BRONCOS FAN Mo' holla fo' yo' dolla! Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: In a bunker in an undisclosed location Posts: 52,694	Zogby: Kerry Will Win http://nydailynews.com/front/story/247447p-211694c.html Pollster John Zogby, in a telephone interview with me yesterday, predicted that John Kerry will win the election. "It's close," he said, "but in the last couple of days things have been trending toward Kerry - nationally and in the swing states. Between this and history, I think it will be Kerry." When Zogby talks, politicians listen. He made his bones in the Bill Clinton-Bob Dole election of 1996, when he came within one-tenth of a percentage point of the final tally.

10-31-2004, 02:14 AM	#7
Bronco Yoda Stokley once... ...saved me from a beating Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 7,244	Kerry will pull out the electoral vote and many will tantrum when he is now referred to as the unelected billionaress-boy-toy. Bush will narrowly get the popular vote. Charges of voter fraud done by the libs and vote tampering by the neo-cons flood the news. Thousands of lawyers from each side will do battle for 40 days and 40 nights. ....In the end skull and bones will continue their bent on world domination. Haleburton's top brass will all retire to a private and exclusive south pacific Island to play lawn bowling with all the U.N. oil-for-food pirates. ....and we all go back to bending over french kissing the all mighty U.N. Canadian prescription drug prices triple in price overnight. We get to keep a swanky Iraqi embassy-city as air traffic control for Israeli fighters heading towards Iran. The War will only cost us 20 times more than we thought it would. good thing that Iraqi oil money promises to pitch in now that gas is $5.00 a gallon. Bin Laden dirty bombs California (hope I move in time) so we give it back to Mexico and declare imagration now under control. Kerry will run with this in 2008 election. Teresa Heinz Kerry announces her new reality tv show rivaling Trump and Branson...