Bush support surging? - The Orange Mane

Needa Pass Rush · 10-29-2004, 07:08 AM

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6301044/

Rohirrim · 10-29-2004, 07:16 AM

Keep in mind a couple of truths regarding polls: The incumbent generally gets within one point of what he's polling while the challenger picks up any undecideds. That one is written in stone. The other truth is that larger turnouts favor Dems, as do younger voters. In other words, if the challenger is withing 3 points, the incumbent is in trouble.

bendog · 10-29-2004, 07:19 AM

I don't think so, but my guess is that unless the polls in general are not counting what would turn out to be an unusually high number of new and african american voters, BushII will eek it out ... one way or another, esp with Fla.

But in PA, from what I've heard and read, the mayor's race in Philly two years back brought african american support up 2% to total votes counted over the 2000 vote, and a lot of black folk, rightly or wrongly, think BushII has tried to get their votes not counted. So, I don't think he's got a prayer in PA. And, Kerry may take Ohio. But then BushII looks to take WV again, and he's got NM, and I think he'll take Iowa, and it's close in Hawaii. But, I think even with that, if Kerry can actually win in Ohio and PA, mathmatically he wins. I just can't believe that will happen though.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bus...erry_sbys.html

Hercules Rockefeller · 10-29-2004, 07:25 AM

The undecideds breaking for the challenger in large numbers has only happened in 1 election, that was 1980 when they broke heavily for Reagan over Carter. It really is a myth that a lot of people like Dick Morris and Zogby like to repeat. Zogby is saying it publically, but then if you actually look inside his polls you see that undecideds are breaking for Bush, and he has no idea why. HW Bush had pulled into a tie going into this weekend because the U's were breaking for him over Clinton, only to have the independent prosecutor come out and say he was going to indict Weinberger (that never happened). That's where Clinton pulled away.

Hercules Rockefeller · 10-29-2004, 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bendog

But, I think even with that, if Kerry can actually win in Ohio and PA, mathmatically he wins. I just can't believe that will happen though.
[/url]

Kerry must have Ohio. Bush can lose Ohio and still win, though he'd to run 3 states Gore won. Not easy, but not completely impossible since New Mexico and Iowa will probably go Bush. 2 states if he somehow pulls out New Hampshire.

Mile High Shack · 10-29-2004, 07:47 AM

MSNBC is a tool for the evil republicans

it's all a lie

bendog · 10-29-2004, 09:07 AM

what's happened to Coors' campagn? Teh polls seem to show salazar pulling away.

but yeah, as for the polls, unless the dems or kerry voters are being incorrectly counted, it looks like BushII ... most liklely. But with even Fla being so close, the voter registration drives may skew the thing. Of course, evne then, Jeb may steal it.

Hercules Rockefeller · 10-29-2004, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bendog

what's happened to Coors' campagn? Teh polls seem to show salazar pulling away.

Twice elected state-wide guy vs. a political novice. It's probably moving out of reach, but with the registration numbers in CO there's might still be a small chance remaining. Doubt it though. Minus Owens, I think there's a real lack of quality R candidates in the state at this time. Dems will probably pick up some State House seats b/c some real extreme people beat out the more electable moderate, but still conservative, Reps in the primaries. Coors should not have been the one to go up against Salazar. Salazar wouldn't have even got in it if Owens had decided to run.

The Colorado Republican party is not very well run IMO. From the contact I've had with it, there's a lot of infighting between the party and the GOTV people (96 Hour Campaign). There's some absolute politcal novices on staff at 96 Hours, and Colin Campbell runs it (Sen. Campbell's son). I get the impression he got the job b/c of who his dad is.

Hercules Rockefeller · 10-29-2004, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bendog

But with even Fla being so close, the voter registration drives may skew the thing. Of course, evne then, Jeb may steal it.

I've heard that even with Kerry in Florida all day today, Dems are privately conceding that the state is moving out of their reach.

Blueflame · 10-29-2004, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hercules Rockefeller

The undecideds breaking for the challenger in large numbers has only happened in 1 election, that was 1980 when they broke heavily for Reagan over Carter. It really is a myth that a lot of people like Dick Morris and Zogby like to repeat. Zogby is saying it publically, but then if you actually look inside his polls you see that undecideds are breaking for Bush, and he has no idea why. HW Bush had pulled into a tie going into this weekend because the U's were breaking for him over Clinton, only to have the independent prosecutor come out and say he was going to indict Weinberger (that never happened). That's where Clinton pulled away.

If memory serves me correctly, Weinberger was, in fact, indicted but Bush 41 pardoned him on Christmas Eve 1992.

Bronco_Beerslug · 10-29-2004, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blueflame

If memory serves me correctly, Weinberger was, in fact, indicted but Bush 41 pardoned him on Christmas Eve 1992.

Yeah, he was indicted in June of '92 on five counts; obstruction, perjury and false statements and pardoned by Bush's daddy.

Mile High Shack · 10-29-2004, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco_Beerslug

Yeah, he was indicted in June of '92 on five counts; obstruction, perjury and false statements and pardoned by Bush's daddy.

do we need to bring up whom Clinton pardoned? why is this being brought up anyway.

Hotrod · 10-29-2004, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mile High Shack

do we need to bring up whom Clinton pardoned? why is this being brought up anyway.

Its called grasping at straws kind of like the kerry campain at this point. The best part is he is wasting time in FL

bendog · 10-29-2004, 12:11 PM

rasmussen has them tied in Fla

?

Bronco_Beerslug · 10-29-2004, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mile High Shack

do we need to bring up whom Clinton pardoned? why is this being brought up anyway.

Pertaining to post #4.

Hercules Rockefeller · 10-29-2004, 12:48 PM

Well if it wasn't Weinberger, there was an announcement of an indictment for someone connected to Iran-Contra this weekend in '92 that put WJC back in the lead.

Odysseus · 10-29-2004, 01:28 PM

There is a surge of voters from overseas and from the military that I am certain isn't being counted in any of the polls. Most of the pollsters seem to favor the 50 states and depending what there spin is seem to want to play favorites.

I don't personally like polls as I think they are being used largely to manipulate the public perception and dictate policy rather than as any kind of real information for public consumption.

The military seems split on Kerry and Bush depending on how they are personally being affected by the war. Straw poll favors Bush.

Blueflame · 10-29-2004, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hercules Rockefeller

Well if it wasn't Weinberger, there was an announcement of an indictment for someone connected to Iran-Contra this weekend in '92 that put WJC back in the lead.

... if so, then Bush 41 pardoned him on Christmas Eve 1992 as well, effectively ending all investigation/prosecution of the Iran-Contra affair and ultimately covering up any possible role he, himself, or Reagan may have played in the scandal.

watermock · 10-29-2004, 01:43 PM

I'm not even going into pardongate with Clinton. It was literally disgracefull. They were not even politicians, they were just plain criminals that had made contributions.

10-29-2004, 07:08 AM	#1
Needa Pass Rush Never say Always Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 5,211	Bush support surging? http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6301044/

10-29-2004, 07:19 AM	#3
bendog Marginally Continent David Bowens, he'd be an upgrade Join Date: Jun 2001 Location: Folsom Prison Posts: 19,935 Adopt-a-Bronco: David Bowens	I don't think so, but my guess is that unless the polls in general are not counting what would turn out to be an unusually high number of new and african american voters, BushII will eek it out ... one way or another, esp with Fla. But in PA, from what I've heard and read, the mayor's race in Philly two years back brought african american support up 2% to total votes counted over the 2000 vote, and a lot of black folk, rightly or wrongly, think BushII has tried to get their votes not counted. So, I don't think he's got a prayer in PA. And, Kerry may take Ohio. But then BushII looks to take WV again, and he's got NM, and I think he'll take Iowa, and it's close in Hawaii. But, I think even with that, if Kerry can actually win in Ohio and PA, mathmatically he wins. I just can't believe that will happen though. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bus...erry_sbys.html Last edited by bendog; 10-29-2004 at 07:21 AM..

10-29-2004, 12:11 PM	#14
bendog Marginally Continent David Bowens, he'd be an upgrade Join Date: Jun 2001 Location: Folsom Prison Posts: 19,935 Adopt-a-Bronco: David Bowens	rasmussen has them tied in Fla?

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10-29-2004, 07:16 AM	#2
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,807	Keep in mind a couple of truths regarding polls: The incumbent generally gets within one point of what he's polling while the challenger picks up any undecideds. That one is written in stone. The other truth is that larger turnouts favor Dems, as do younger voters. In other words, if the challenger is withing 3 points, the incumbent is in trouble.

10-29-2004, 07:25 AM	#4
Hercules Rockefeller Ring of Famer Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 16,005 Adopt-a-Bronco: DJ Williams	The undecideds breaking for the challenger in large numbers has only happened in 1 election, that was 1980 when they broke heavily for Reagan over Carter. It really is a myth that a lot of people like Dick Morris and Zogby like to repeat. Zogby is saying it publically, but then if you actually look inside his polls you see that undecideds are breaking for Bush, and he has no idea why. HW Bush had pulled into a tie going into this weekend because the U's were breaking for him over Clinton, only to have the independent prosecutor come out and say he was going to indict Weinberger (that never happened). That's where Clinton pulled away.

10-29-2004, 07:47 AM	#6
Mile High Shack Ring of Famer Cock-a-doodle-do Join Date: May 2001 Location: Somewhere Posts: 17,010	MSNBC is a tool for the evil republicans it's all a lie

10-29-2004, 09:07 AM	#7
bendog Marginally Continent David Bowens, he'd be an upgrade Join Date: Jun 2001 Location: Folsom Prison Posts: 19,935 Adopt-a-Bronco: David Bowens	what's happened to Coors' campagn? Teh polls seem to show salazar pulling away. but yeah, as for the polls, unless the dems or kerry voters are being incorrectly counted, it looks like BushII ... most liklely. But with even Fla being so close, the voter registration drives may skew the thing. Of course, evne then, Jeb may steal it.

10-29-2004, 12:48 PM	#16
Hercules Rockefeller Ring of Famer Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 16,005 Adopt-a-Bronco: DJ Williams	Well if it wasn't Weinberger, there was an announcement of an indictment for someone connected to Iran-Contra this weekend in '92 that put WJC back in the lead.

10-29-2004, 01:28 PM	#17
Odysseus Fan of the home team Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Durango, Colorado Posts: 12,107 Adopt-a-Bronco: Mark Schlereth	There is a surge of voters from overseas and from the military that I am certain isn't being counted in any of the polls. Most of the pollsters seem to favor the 50 states and depending what there spin is seem to want to play favorites. I don't personally like polls as I think they are being used largely to manipulate the public perception and dictate policy rather than as any kind of real information for public consumption. The military seems split on Kerry and Bush depending on how they are personally being affected by the war. Straw poll favors Bush.

10-29-2004, 01:43 PM	#19
watermock "Hoodie Jr" "Hug me!" Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Hot Springs, Ouachitah Posts: 77,090	I'm not even going into pardongate with Clinton. It was literally disgracefull. They were not even politicians, they were just plain criminals that had made contributions.