Do polls lie? - The Orange Mane

Needa Pass Rush · 10-29-2004, 07:06 AM

What do the tea leaves mean?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Rohirrim · 10-29-2004, 07:29 AM

Ignore the nationwide averages and just look at the battleground states. Also, there are a number of "monkey wrenches" in the polling results in this election. 18% of voters don't own landlines and won't be polled. The majority of the rest of the population using answering machines and caller ID and won't respond to polls. Therefore, the majority of polls are made up by the elderly that answer their phones and have the time to take a poll. Then you have the enormous number of first time voters in this election. If anybody tells you what they're going to do, or if they'll even show up, they're bee essing you. The truth is, this one is tighter than a fly's ass and nobody knows what's going to happen.

Hercules Rockefeller · 10-29-2004, 08:19 AM

Now it's 18% that don't own landlines? Dems just keep increasing that number more and more in their attempt to say polls aren't relevant. At the very least, you tripled the true number Ro.

First time voters? All the exit polling done on early voters so far has Bush over 50% with first timers, small number true, but that demo. is not in the bag by any means for Dems like some here want to believe.

Might want to watch out for the 4.5 mil Christian Coalition-types that stayed home in 2000. Same with people against gay marriage in states that have those amendments on their ballots. Probably all of those are going to win, and guess who the majority of the "No"s are going to vote for for Prez? There's one on Ohio's ballot. Finally Dems killed Reps on the GOTV effort in 2000, probably helped Gore get 2-3% more. Reps took notice and did the same to Dems in '02. All people want to talk about is a Dem GOTV effort this time around, they're going to be massively surprised at the GOP's.

Tight race, but by looking what's in play and how they're leaning, it's not a lock for Bush, but he's got a much greater chance to break out than Kerry.

Rohirrim · 10-29-2004, 11:09 AM

If Bush hasn't "broken out" by now, he's not going to break out at all. Look for the break out in the other direction.

Old Dude · 10-29-2004, 12:29 PM

I don't know if polls lie, but I sure lie to pollsters.

Especially when they interrupt a Broncos game.

TexanBob · 10-29-2004, 12:40 PM

Last time, the polls suggested a 3-5% Bush win. That didn't happen.

Just take that into consideration when you look at this year's election.

The party's own internals are far more thorough than the media polls. They are there to tell them what areas to campaign in and what themes to hit in the precious final days.

So watch where they are campaigning and what themes they are saying. That's where they think they can make a difference. FWIW, the campaigns are working primarily in states Gore carried in 2000 and are talking about Iraq and homeland security.

Florida, Ohio and New Hampshire are the only Bush states (from 2000) that appear in question. The Gore states Kerry must keep are New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

A few states have an outside chance of flipping such as Colorado (Bush), Missouri (Bush), Arkansas (Bush), New Jersey (Gore), Oregon (Gore), Maine (Gore) and Hawaii (Gore) but are unlikely to do so.

Hercules Rockefeller · 10-29-2004, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TexanBob

Last time, the polls suggested a 3-5% Bush win. That didn't happen.

Just take that into consideration when you look at this year's election.

People also fail to mention that no polling was done after the Bush-DUI story broke on Friday. There were no polls after that. That did help close the gap, as well as an excellent Dem GOTV effort to a non-existent Rep one.

Old Dude · 10-29-2004, 01:10 PM

Non-partisan post. Just the facts, ma'am.

I can report that there has been an odd development in Colorado. Bush has been stumping here pretty hard, and the media blitz (television & radio) has, if anything, intensified.

Kerry hasn't been here recently, and has pulled back on the tv spots. I'm not sure if it was just "face-saving" or if it was a calculated strategy, but the Kerry spokesperson said that their feedback indicated that the millions spent on traditional advertising did not seem to be having much of an effect at this particular time. Instead, they indicated that they were more focussed on "get out the vote" efforts, whatever that means.

So you would certainly think, just on the face of it, that Bush is looking good here. And just last week, a couple local polls, as well as a national one, seemed to suggest that Bush had anywhere from a 6 or 7 point lead here.

But for some reason, just in the past couple of days, people on both sides seem to be suggesting that it's a dead heat here again, and at least one poll shows Kerry with a slight lead.

At te same time, there has been a whopper of a senatorial race here between Coors (R) & Salazar (D), and both of them are spending like mad. A couple weeks ago, Salazar had a very significant lead. In just the past few days, there are indications Coors may have a slight lead.

Just seems like an odd combination of events.

Spider · 10-29-2004, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Old Dude

At te same time, there has been a whopper of a senatorial race here between Coors (R) & Salazar (D), and both of them are spending like mad. A couple weeks ago, Salazar had a very significant lead. In just the past few days, there are indications Coors may have a slight lead.

Just seems like an odd combination of events.

One good thing about Wyoming , we dont get Political Ads from the President or Kerry ..... But like you guys we have had a nasty race for the senate ........Ted Ladd D vs Barbra Cubin R ........
http://www.casperstartribune.net/art...38007c7761.txt
http://www.casperstartribune.net/art...38007cc4a2.txt
Wicked good stuff .......... I havent decided who I will vote for Ladd or Cubin , Probably wont untill election day ........

Spider · 10-29-2004, 01:24 PM

Devestating stuff from both canidates ..........

Quote:

Originally Posted by from link

Perhaps she could have simply asked her brother, Jeff Eastwood, who works on Mrs. Cubin's campaign staff, for the tickets.

DARCY A. DIXON, Casper

State office manager, Ladd for Wyoming Headquarters

(Editor's note: When the Star-Tribune received Krissi Eastwood's letter, we gave Ladd's office a chance to explain why they had turned Ms. Eastwood down. If similar accusations had been made against Cubin's office, we would have extended the same consideration.)

RaiderH8r · 10-29-2004, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by §Pide®

One good thing about Wyoming , we dont get Political Ads from the President or Kerry ..... But like you guys we have had a nasty race for the senate ........Ted Ladd D vs Barbra Cubin R ........
http://www.casperstartribune.net/art...38007c7761.txt
http://www.casperstartribune.net/art...38007cc4a2.txt
Wicked good stuff .......... I havent decided who I will vote for Ladd or Cubin , Probably wont untill election day ........

The S. Dakota race is VERY interesting. Thune is up, but within the margin of error. Oh what a happy day if Daschle is sent packing. Barbara Mikulski has MD wrapped up. She's dumber than a bag of hammers. Literally, not hopelessly disillusioned like most liberals...plain stupid.

Spider · 10-29-2004, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RaiderH8r

The S. Dakota race is VERY interesting. Thune is up, but within the margin of error. Oh what a happy day if Daschle is sent packing. Barbara Mikulski has MD wrapped up. She's dumber than a bag of hammers. Literally, not hopelessly disillusioned like most liberals...plain stupid.

I cant find a Real poll between Ladd and Cubin ......... States out here are Hard to nail down in Polls , realy are .. Wyoming - S.D. , Montana , Even some parts of Colorado = a whole different world ....... Most here see a Pollster and they will walk away .........

Old Dude · 10-30-2004, 02:44 PM

Thursday - Friday RMN poll shows Bush now with comfortable 7 to 8 point lead in Colo. The analysts suggest that the Bush media blitz is winning over Independents & undecideds and that he now has it in the bag, having crossed the 50% mark for the first time in many months.

-Slap- · 10-30-2004, 02:57 PM

Poles will often lie about how much Vodka they've consumed in a given time period.

Rohirrim · 10-31-2004, 10:13 AM

This cracks me up. I've spent an hour this morning studying the polls and I have to admit - I don't have a clue what's going to happen. I have to agree with all the talking heads out there (at least the ones I trust, like Russert and Matthews), this election will be decided by voter turnout. The pollsters keep blabbing about how this means that, or that means this, but continously blabbing is how they keep their jobs.

Obviously, Fox and CNN have a horse in this race and know that voter turnout is the key. What better way to ensure turnout than by scaring your troops (ie. listeners) into heading for the polls? So, Fox puts Kerry up by one, and CNN puts Bush up by 8. They both should get out of the polling game. It's only an extension of their political bent.

By the averages, Kerry looks good in the battleground states, but then again, so does Bush, although not so good when you think that he's an incumbent and his numbers should be better than they are. So, whose philosophy of the electorate will win out? The one that says the undecideds break for the challenger? The one that says higher turnout is better for the Dems? The one that says the millions of brand new voters will turnout for Kerry or the one that says they won't even turn out? And then there's the Nader factor. Nader is carrying 5% in Minnesota. That could do the trick for Bush. Then, there's the mysterious "youth" vote and the unpolled cell phone users. The truth is, nobody knows.

There are many stories coming out now about the GOP's push to suppress the vote. It's a neat trick. In Ohio, Penn. and Florida, in poorer (ie. Dem) areas contolled by Repugs, they put one polling place in some out of the way area and the long lines (and the long wait) discourage voting. Works like a charm. Then, they place officious looking suits in those polling places to intimidate voters - requesting ID, telling them to prove that they live at that address, etc. etc. That Karl Rove is just one fun guy and certainly has the higher ideals of Democracy cemented in his heart. Obviously, the Repugs believe that voter turnout favors the Dems.

In the Denver Post today they had the story of one woman who was intimidated away from voting by waiting in a long line, then being asked for ID, then being told her address on her license didn't match her registration address, then being told she had to go home and get a power bill to prove what her address was and return to the line, etc. She told the reporter she just wasn't going to bother anymore. "Voting shouldn't be this much of a hassle." She's a registered Dem in a Repug district. One down for Karl & Co.

alkemical · 10-31-2004, 01:03 PM

If you believe polls you probably also wept when your principal spoke

10-29-2004, 07:06 AM	#1
Needa Pass Rush Never say Always Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 5,211	Do polls lie? What do the tea leaves mean? http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

10-31-2004, 10:13 AM	#15
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,840	Fox News Gives Kerry the Lead? This cracks me up. I've spent an hour this morning studying the polls and I have to admit - I don't have a clue what's going to happen. I have to agree with all the talking heads out there (at least the ones I trust, like Russert and Matthews), this election will be decided by voter turnout. The pollsters keep blabbing about how this means that, or that means this, but continously blabbing is how they keep their jobs. Obviously, Fox and CNN have a horse in this race and know that voter turnout is the key. What better way to ensure turnout than by scaring your troops (ie. listeners) into heading for the polls? So, Fox puts Kerry up by one, and CNN puts Bush up by 8. They both should get out of the polling game. It's only an extension of their political bent. By the averages, Kerry looks good in the battleground states, but then again, so does Bush, although not so good when you think that he's an incumbent and his numbers should be better than they are. So, whose philosophy of the electorate will win out? The one that says the undecideds break for the challenger? The one that says higher turnout is better for the Dems? The one that says the millions of brand new voters will turnout for Kerry or the one that says they won't even turn out? And then there's the Nader factor. Nader is carrying 5% in Minnesota. That could do the trick for Bush. Then, there's the mysterious "youth" vote and the unpolled cell phone users. The truth is, nobody knows. There are many stories coming out now about the GOP's push to suppress the vote. It's a neat trick. In Ohio, Penn. and Florida, in poorer (ie. Dem) areas contolled by Repugs, they put one polling place in some out of the way area and the long lines (and the long wait) discourage voting. Works like a charm. Then, they place officious looking suits in those polling places to intimidate voters - requesting ID, telling them to prove that they live at that address, etc. etc. That Karl Rove is just one fun guy and certainly has the higher ideals of Democracy cemented in his heart. Obviously, the Repugs believe that voter turnout favors the Dems. In the Denver Post today they had the story of one woman who was intimidated away from voting by waiting in a long line, then being asked for ID, then being told her address on her license didn't match her registration address, then being told she had to go home and get a power bill to prove what her address was and return to the line, etc. She told the reporter she just wasn't going to bother anymore. "Voting shouldn't be this much of a hassle." She's a registered Dem in a Repug district. One down for Karl & Co.

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10-29-2004, 07:29 AM	#2
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,840	Ignore the nationwide averages and just look at the battleground states. Also, there are a number of "monkey wrenches" in the polling results in this election. 18% of voters don't own landlines and won't be polled. The majority of the rest of the population using answering machines and caller ID and won't respond to polls. Therefore, the majority of polls are made up by the elderly that answer their phones and have the time to take a poll. Then you have the enormous number of first time voters in this election. If anybody tells you what they're going to do, or if they'll even show up, they're bee essing you. The truth is, this one is tighter than a fly's ass and nobody knows what's going to happen.

10-29-2004, 08:19 AM	#3
Hercules Rockefeller Ring of Famer Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 16,005 Adopt-a-Bronco: DJ Williams	Now it's 18% that don't own landlines? Dems just keep increasing that number more and more in their attempt to say polls aren't relevant. At the very least, you tripled the true number Ro. First time voters? All the exit polling done on early voters so far has Bush over 50% with first timers, small number true, but that demo. is not in the bag by any means for Dems like some here want to believe. Might want to watch out for the 4.5 mil Christian Coalition-types that stayed home in 2000. Same with people against gay marriage in states that have those amendments on their ballots. Probably all of those are going to win, and guess who the majority of the "No"s are going to vote for for Prez? There's one on Ohio's ballot. Finally Dems killed Reps on the GOTV effort in 2000, probably helped Gore get 2-3% more. Reps took notice and did the same to Dems in '02. All people want to talk about is a Dem GOTV effort this time around, they're going to be massively surprised at the GOP's. Tight race, but by looking what's in play and how they're leaning, it's not a lock for Bush, but he's got a much greater chance to break out than Kerry.

10-29-2004, 11:09 AM	#4
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,840	If Bush hasn't "broken out" by now, he's not going to break out at all. Look for the break out in the other direction.

10-29-2004, 12:29 PM	#5
Old Dude Host Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: As if I'd tell you crazies! Posts: 14,153	I don't know if polls lie, but I sure lie to pollsters. Especially when they interrupt a Broncos game.

10-29-2004, 12:40 PM	#6
TexanBob Don't Argue With Me You Know I'm Right Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 5,023 Adopt-a-Bronco: Darris Nash	Last time, the polls suggested a 3-5% Bush win. That didn't happen. Just take that into consideration when you look at this year's election. The party's own internals are far more thorough than the media polls. They are there to tell them what areas to campaign in and what themes to hit in the precious final days. So watch where they are campaigning and what themes they are saying. That's where they think they can make a difference. FWIW, the campaigns are working primarily in states Gore carried in 2000 and are talking about Iraq and homeland security. Florida, Ohio and New Hampshire are the only Bush states (from 2000) that appear in question. The Gore states Kerry must keep are New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A few states have an outside chance of flipping such as Colorado (Bush), Missouri (Bush), Arkansas (Bush), New Jersey (Gore), Oregon (Gore), Maine (Gore) and Hawaii (Gore) but are unlikely to do so.

10-29-2004, 01:10 PM	#8
Old Dude Host Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: As if I'd tell you crazies! Posts: 14,153	Non-partisan post. Just the facts, ma'am. I can report that there has been an odd development in Colorado. Bush has been stumping here pretty hard, and the media blitz (television & radio) has, if anything, intensified. Kerry hasn't been here recently, and has pulled back on the tv spots. I'm not sure if it was just "face-saving" or if it was a calculated strategy, but the Kerry spokesperson said that their feedback indicated that the millions spent on traditional advertising did not seem to be having much of an effect at this particular time. Instead, they indicated that they were more focussed on "get out the vote" efforts, whatever that means. So you would certainly think, just on the face of it, that Bush is looking good here. And just last week, a couple local polls, as well as a national one, seemed to suggest that Bush had anywhere from a 6 or 7 point lead here. But for some reason, just in the past couple of days, people on both sides seem to be suggesting that it's a dead heat here again, and at least one poll shows Kerry with a slight lead. At te same time, there has been a whopper of a senatorial race here between Coors (R) & Salazar (D), and both of them are spending like mad. A couple weeks ago, Salazar had a very significant lead. In just the past few days, there are indications Coors may have a slight lead. Just seems like an odd combination of events.

10-30-2004, 02:44 PM	#13
Old Dude Host Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: As if I'd tell you crazies! Posts: 14,153	Thursday - Friday RMN poll shows Bush now with comfortable 7 to 8 point lead in Colo. The analysts suggest that the Bush media blitz is winning over Independents & undecideds and that he now has it in the bag, having crossed the 50% mark for the first time in many months.

10-30-2004, 02:57 PM	#14
-Slap- Ring of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 31,895	Poles will often lie about how much Vodka they've consumed in a given time period.

10-31-2004, 01:03 PM	#16
alkemical Guerrilla Ontologist rorrim\|mirror Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Future Posts: 42,696 Adopt-a-Bronco: Prima Materia	If you believe polls you probably also wept when your principal spoke