|08-20-2004, 12:45 PM||#1|
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Saratoga, NY
Just Curious which way everyone is leaning
I just wanted to see which way the Bronco faithfull was leaning in the upcoming election.
|08-20-2004, 01:28 PM||#2|
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Folsom Prison
I'll prolly vote nay to all three. Kerry is the more responsible, but I'm not gonna vote for a NE Democrat with affirmative action credentials. nader's an elitist egotist, so not even a protest vote. Maybe the reform party or evne the anti-semite Buchanon.
|08-20-2004, 11:40 PM||#3|
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Topeka, KS
G.W. is my pick. I like his "cowboy" mentality. If other countries can't deal with it, screw them. We're going to lead the world into a new era of peace with or without their help. I'm not swayed by Kerry's "promise" to escalate the troop levels. I'll stick with the commander-in-chief that's already made the tough decisions in the post-9/11 world.
|08-21-2004, 04:45 AM||#4|
The Enigma Prognosis
Join Date: Aug 2003
|08-22-2004, 01:13 AM||#5|
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Hot Springs, Ouachitah
America has many more Allies than the Oil for Terrorism that was destroyed suggest.
In fact, all alliances are basically dependent on our ability to control nuclear weapons availability and control conventional weapons superiority.
It's doesn't really matter when some Gothic Dimwit Prances around with a crotchless leather jumpsuit, just don't try it in Najif.
Fact of the matter is Chaps are worn to ride horses, not sluts.
Altho riding Sluts has been a hobby of mine from time to time, it's not really a political issue, except in New Jersey.
You go on there buddy boy. I have nothing against having fun. Just go Rave and do what you don't think is right and vote against it, and thank God people are looking after your pathetic ass.
|08-23-2004, 06:33 PM||#6|
Mo' holla fo' yo' dolla!
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: In a bunker in an undisclosed location
Kerry by a landslide
Everyone knows the presidential election is going to be a squeaker. Liberals are mad at Bush, but conservatives love him. For every blue state, there's a red state. November 2nd is going to be a long night.
But what if it isn't? What if it isn't even close?
Let me go out on a limb: John Kerry is going to win the 2004 election – not by a nose, not by a chad, but by a landslide.
Making predictions is always a dangerous business, and you run the risk of looking foolish (although no one fired Peggy Noonan for predicting that George W. Bush would get 411 electoral votes in 2000, while his actual total was 271). And the unexpected could always occur – Kerry might have an Israeli poet file a sexual harassment suit against him, or Bush could pull Osama bin Laden out of his hat a week before election day. And along with just about every other commentator, I've been saying all along that this election is going to be as close as could be – divided America, and all that.
But signs are pointing to a sea change in the 2004 election campaign, a gradual but powerful shift in the landscape that makes a Bush victory seem increasingly unlikely.
What has led me to such a radical prediction? Let's look at what's happening out there.
The national picture
National polls are showing a clear if subtle trend: Kerry has moved ahead of Bush. No two polls will be exactly the same, and a single poll will almost never show the same results from one week to the next, but when almost all the surveys are pointing in the same direction, we can be confident that there's something real going on. At the moment there are about a dozen national public polls out there, and with the exception of Gallup, every one shows Kerry ahead, anywhere from 1 point to 8 points.
The view from the states
Of course, because of the bizarrely undemocratic system we have, you don't actually have to win the most votes in order to become president, and on election night we'll be watching a relatively small number of states to see which way they swing.
But here's the key point: the number of battleground states has grown since the beginning of this race, and in each case a state that Bush won easily in 2000 has, to the surprise of many, become highly contested, complete with multiple candidate visits and a tsunami of television ads. Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado were all supposed to be safely Republican; Kerry could win one or more.
In fact, there is not a single battleground state save Louisiana (which many people don't consider and actual battleground state) in which a non-partisan poll shows Bush with a lead larger than the poll's margin of error, while in many, things are trending Kerry's way. Bush won Missouri comfortably in 2000; Kerry now leads in polls there. Pennsylvania, the state Bush has visited more times than any other save Texas, now looks like it might not even be close, with Kerry garnering double-digit leads in some polls. Kerry also leads by a good margin in Michigan. Ohio was supposed to be the Florida of 2000, the state on which all could hinge; most polls show Kerry with a lead there.
Which brings us to Florida itself. After Jeb Bush coasted to re-election in 2002, some were saying Democrats shouldn't even bother trying to contest the Sunshine State; now Kerry leads there in every poll. And the situation on the ground is favorable to Kerry as well: According to the St. Petersburg Times, the Bush campaign, the state GOP, and the RNC combined have only 68 paid staffers in Florida, compared to the 300 working there for the crack anti-Bush field organizing group America Coming Together; that doesn't even count the Kerry campaign itself. Through June, the Democrats had added 129,423 new voters to the Florida rolls, compared to 75,132 for Republicans. And the Democrats will be watching the vote counting very carefully.
The issue terrain
As President Bush tries to make his case to the American people, what exactly is he offering them? He's having a hard time making the case that his administration has been successful on any major issue. Gasoline prices are at record highs. Kerry seems to have already won the argument on the state of the economy, which is hampered by weak job creation and stagnant wages. Iraq continues to be a quagmire; a majority of Americans now believe the war was a mistake, and some time close to election day the 1000th American soldier will be killed there. On a range of domestic issues, most notably health care, Bush has neither accomplished much meaningful nor offered any compelling plans for a second term.
In short, the President doesn't have much of a hand to play when it comes to the issues that will dominate the rest of the campaign. Perhaps his convention will provide a positive, unifying theme for Bush's re-election, but it's a mighty tall order.
The home stretch
As many analysts have pointed out, undecided voters tend to be more likely to break toward the challenger at the end of a presidential race. While every race is different, if you haven't made up your mind by now about which candidate you're going to vote for, it's probably because you don't like what Bush has done but Kerry hasn't yet convinced you to vote for him.
In a comment that became a symbol of liberals' disconnection from ordinary Americans, after the 1972 election New Yorker film critic Pauline Kael expressed shock that Richard Nixon had won re-election, because she didn't know a single person who had voted for him. But today, something different grips liberals, particularly those ensconced in enclaves like Manhattan, Madison, or San Francisco. Even though they live in an environment in which almost everyone is progressive, they believe that such places are few and far between, and the vast majority of Americans are conservatives whose values and political choices couldn't be more different from theirs.
But this suspicion is no more accurate than Kael's. In fact, America is full of liberals, and it's also full of a somewhat larger group: people who don't think George Bush should be re-elected. Could the election be as close as 2000? Anything is possible. But I wouldn't bet on it.