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Old 09-08-2014, 08:42 PM   #1
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Default Global Warming ‘Pause’ Extends to 17 Years 11 Months

http://www.climatedepot.com/2014/09/...ars-11-months/

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Global Temperature Update
No global warming for 17 years 11 months …
… or 19 years, according to a key statistical paper
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The Great Pause has now persisted for 17 years 11 months. Indeed, to three decimal places on a per-decade basis, there has been no global warming for 18 full years. Professor Ross McKitrick, however, has upped the ante with a new statistical paper to say there has been no global warming for 19 years.
Whichever value one adopts, it is becoming harder and harder to maintain that we face a “climate crisis” caused by our past and present sins of emission.
Taking the least-squares linear-regression trend on Remote Sensing Systems’ satellite-based monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature dataset, there has been no global warming – none at all – for at least 215 months.
This is the longest continuous period without any warming in the global instrumental temperature record since the satellites first watched in 1979. It has endured for half the satellite temperature record. Yet the Great Pause coincides with a continuing, rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
1711years
Figure 1. RSS monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies (dark blue) and trend (thick bright blue line), October 1996 to August 2014, showing no trend for 17 years 11 months.
The hiatus period of 17 years 11 months, or 215 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend.
Yet the length of the Great Pause in global warming, significant though it now is, is of less importance than the ever-growing discrepancy between the temperature trends predicted by models and the far less exciting real-world temperature change that has been observed.
The First Assessment Report predicted that global temperature would rise by 1.0 [0.7, 1.5] Cº to 2025, equivalent to 2.8 [1.9, 4.2] Cº per century. The executive summary asked, “How much confidence do we have in our predictions?” IPCC pointed out some uncertainties (clouds, oceans, etc.), but concluded:
“Nevertheless, … we have substantial confidence that models can predict at least the broad-scale features of climate change. … There are similarities between results from the coupled models using simple representations of the ocean and those using more sophisticated descriptions, and our understanding of such differences as do occur gives us some confidence in the results.”
That “substantial confidence” was substantial over-confidence. A quarter-century after 1990, the outturn to date – expressed as the least-squares linear-regression trend on the mean of the RSS and UAH monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies – is 0.34 Cº, equivalent to just 1.4 Cº/century, or exactly half of the central estimate in IPCC (1990) and well below even the least estimate (Fig. 2).
monckton2
Figure 2. Near-term projections of warming at a rate equivalent to 2.8 [1.9, 4.2] K/century , made with “substantial confidence” in IPCC (1990), January 1990 to August 2014 (orange region and red trend line), vs. observed anomalies (dark blue) and trend (bright blue) at less than 1.4 K/century equivalent, taken as the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite monthly mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies.
The Great Pause is a growing embarrassment to those who had told us with “substantial confidence” that the science was settled and the debate over. Nature had other ideas. Though more than two dozen more or less implausible excuses for the Pause are appearing in nervous reviewed journals, the possibility that the Pause is occurring because the computer models are simply wrong about the sensitivity of temperature to manmade greenhouse gases can no longer be dismissed.
Remarkably, even the IPCC’s latest and much reduced near-term global-warming projections are also excessive (Fig. 3).
monckton3
Figure 3. Predicted temperature change, January 2005 to August 2014, at a rate equivalent to 1.7 [1.0, 2.3] Cº/century (orange zone with thick red best-estimate trend line), compared with the observed anomalies (dark blue) and zero real-world trend (bright blue), taken as the average of the RSS and UAH satellite lower-troposphere temperature anomalies.
In 1990, the IPCC’s central estimate of near-term warming was higher by two-thirds than it is today. Then it was 2.8 C/century equivalent. Now it is just 1.7 Cº equivalent – and, as Fig. 3 shows, even that is proving to be a substantial exaggeration.
On the RSS satellite data, there has been no global warming statistically distinguishable from zero for more than 26 years. None of the models predicted that, in effect, there would be no global warming for a quarter of a century.
The Great Pause may well come to an end by this winter. An el Niño event is underway and would normally peak during the northern-hemisphere winter. There is too little information to say how much temporary warming it will cause, but a new wave of warm water has emerged in recent days, so one should not yet write off this el Niño as a non-event. The temperature spikes caused by the el Niños of 1998, 2007, and 2010 are clearly visible in Figs. 1-3.
El Niños occur about every three or four years, though no one is entirely sure what triggers them. They cause a temporary spike in temperature, often followed by a sharp drop during the la Niña phase, as can be seen in 1999, 2008, and 2011-2012, where there was a “double-dip” la Niña that is one of the excuses for the Pause.
The ratio of el Niños to la Niñas tends to fall during the 30-year negative or cooling phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the latest of which began in late 2001. So, though the Pause may pause or even shorten for a few months at the turn of the year, it may well resume late in 2015 . Either way, it is ever clearer that global warming has not been happening at anything like the rate predicted by the climate models, and is not at all likely to occur even at the much-reduced rate now predicted. There could be as little as 1 Cº global warming this century, not the 3-4 Cº predicted by the IPCC.
Key facts about global temperature
The RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 215 months from October 1996 to August 2014. That is more than half the 428-month satellite record.
The fastest measured centennial warming rate was in Central England from 1663-1762, at 0.9 Cº/century – before the industrial revolution. It was not our fault.
The global warming trend since 1900 is equivalent to 0.8 Cº per century. This is well within natural variability and may not have much to do with us.
The fastest measured warming trend lasting ten years or more occurred over the 40 years from 1694-1733 in Central England. It was equivalent to 4.3 Cº per century.
Since 1950, when a human influence on global temperature first became theoretically possible, the global warming trend has been equivalent to below 1.2 Cº per century.
The fastest warming rate lasting ten years or more since 1950 occurred over the 33 years from 1974 to 2006. It was equivalent to 2.0 Cº per century.
In 1990, the IPCC’s mid-range prediction of near-term warming was equivalent to 2.8 Cº per century, higher by two-thirds than its current prediction of 1.7 Cº/century.
The global warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to below 1.4 Cº per century – half of what the IPCC had then predicted.
Though the IPCC has cut its near-term warming prediction, it has not cut its high-end business as usual centennial warming prediction of 4.8 Cº warming to 2100.
The IPCC’s predicted 4.8 Cº warming by 2100 is well over twice the greatest rate of warming lasting more than ten years that has been measured since 1950.
The IPCC’s 4.8 Cº-by-2100 prediction is almost four times the observed real-world warming trend since we might in theory have begun influencing it in 1950.
From 1 April 2001 to 1 July 2014, the warming trend on the mean of the 5 global-temperature datasets is nil. No warming for 13 years 4 months.
Recent extreme weather cannot be blamed on global warming, because there has not been any global warming. It is as simple as that.
Technical note
Our latest topical graph shows the RSS dataset for the 214 months October 1996 to August 2014 – just over half the 428-month satellite record.
Terrestrial temperatures are measured by thermometers. Thermometers correctly sited in rural areas away from manmade heat sources show warming rates appreciably below those that are published. The satellite datasets are based on measurements made by the most accurate thermometers available – platinum resistance thermometers, which not only measure temperature at various altitudes above the Earth’s surface via microwave sounding units but also constantly calibrate themselves by measuring via spaceward mirrors the known temperature of the cosmic background radiation, which is 1% of the freezing point of water, or just 2.73 degrees above absolute zero. It was by measuring minuscule variations in the cosmic background radiation that the NASA anisotropy probe determined the age of the Universe: 13.82 billion years.
The graph is accurate. The data are lifted monthly straight from the RSS website. A computer algorithm reads them down from the text file, takes their mean and plots them automatically using an advanced routine that automatically adjusts the aspect ratio of the data window at both axes so as to show the data at maximum scale, for clarity.
The latest monthly data point is visually inspected to ensure that it has been correctly positioned. The light blue trend line plotted across the dark blue spline-curve that shows the actual data is determined by the method of least-squares linear regression, which calculates the y-intercept and slope of the line via two well-established and functionally identical equations that are compared with one another to ensure no discrepancy between them. The IPCC and most other agencies use linear regression to determine global temperature trends. Professor Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia recommends it in one of the Climategate emails. The method is appropriate because global temperature records exhibit little auto-regression.
Dr Stephen Farish, Professor of Epidemiological Statistics at the University of Melbourne, kindly verified the reliability of the algorithm that determines the trend on the graph and the correlation coefficient, which is very low because, though the data are highly variable, the trend is flat.
Other statistical methods might be used. A paper by Professor Ross McKitrick of the University of Guelph, Canada, published at the end of August 2014, estimated that at that date there had been 19 years without any global warming.




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Old 09-09-2014, 10:22 AM   #2
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Goddamn what a bunch of ****.

Monckton? Gimme a ****ing break.

RSS is just plain wrong.

But you don't know that because you're a ****ing idiot.
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Old 09-09-2014, 10:31 AM   #3
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Sigh...

Another day, another Hobo short bus thread.
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Old 09-09-2014, 11:32 AM   #4
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Don't worry when none of the dire predictions come true they will say look all the legislation we passed worked and we stopped global warming.
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Old 09-09-2014, 11:46 AM   #5
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Do we give flat earth claimants equal time when discussing basic astronomy?
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Old 09-09-2014, 12:08 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by cutthemdown View Post
Don't worry when none of the dire predictions come true they will say look all the legislation we passed worked and we stopped global warming.
The dire predictions are already being fulfilled. Yesterday, the Audubon Society released a study showing that 50% of North American bird species are already under threat of extinction due to climate change. Some are already gone.

Just because you choose to ignore a thing, doesn't mean it ceases to exist, although I realize that is basic, Right Wing strategy.

In the last ten years, how many "100 year" events have you witnessed all around the world? 100 year droughts? 100 year floods? 100 year tornadoes? 100 year storms?

Last edited by Rohirrim; 09-09-2014 at 12:11 PM..
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Old 09-09-2014, 01:32 PM   #7
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Greenhouse gas levels at all time high in 2013. Shhhh... Nothing to see here....
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Old 09-09-2014, 02:55 PM   #8
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Some guy just caught a wahoo off the coast of Orange County. When's the last time that happened? Never.
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Old 09-09-2014, 02:59 PM   #9
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When did we stop trusting science?
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Old 09-09-2014, 03:19 PM   #10
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When did we stop trusting science?
When major corporations (especially the oil companies) started spending billions to launch propaganda campaigns attacking it. The Koch Brothers get the headlines for climate change denial but I would guess Exxon Mobil probably spends even more than they do. They're just quieter about it.
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Old 09-09-2014, 07:05 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Rohirrim View Post
Some guy just caught a wahoo off the coast of Orange County. When's the last time that happened? Never.
A client of mine who's lived in California her whole life told me that the last time an ElNiño was forecasted there were wahoo and sharp nose puffers along with other fish that were mostly reef fish there in the California waters.

I am in agreement that man's destruction of the earth is right on schedule, but the wahoo thing isn't necesarily anything to be alarmed about.
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Old 09-09-2014, 07:09 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Rohirrim View Post
Some guy just caught a wahoo off the coast of Orange County. When's the last time that happened? Never.
In the last couple of weeks they caught 2 albino, 1 yellow and 1 blue lobster of the Mass coast......when's the last time that happened
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Old 09-09-2014, 07:12 PM   #13
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The dire predictions are already being fulfilled. Yesterday, the Audubon Society released a study showing that 50% of North American bird species are already under threat of extinction due to climate change. Some are already gone.

Just because you choose to ignore a thing, doesn't mean it ceases to exist, although I realize that is basic, Right Wing strategy.

In the last ten years, how many "100 year" events have you witnessed all around the world? 100 year droughts? 100 year floods? 100 year tornadoes? 100 year storms?
Colorado has inherited the Virginia climate this year.....
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Old 09-09-2014, 07:33 PM   #14
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Do we give flat earth claimants equal time when discussing basic astronomy?
If you accept the Fox News "fair and balanced" paradigm, then the answer is yes, unfortunately.
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Old 09-09-2014, 07:55 PM   #15
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Someone please dig up that stupid graph of the ice core/temp. correlation over the last 100,000 years, and I'll show how stupid you guys are.
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Old 09-09-2014, 07:56 PM   #16
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Someone please dig up that stupid graph of the ice core/temp. correlation over the last 100,000 years, and I'll show how stupid you guys are.
are you prepared to cut and paste
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Old 09-09-2014, 07:59 PM   #17
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Someone please dig up that stupid graph of the ice core/temp. correlation over the last 100,000 years, and I'll show how stupid you guys are.
You're nothing but a mindless sheep regurgitating the propaganda oil companies have spent millions disseminating to right-wing morons like yourself.

You are a laughing stock.
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Old 09-09-2014, 08:02 PM   #18
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You're nothing but a mindless sheep regurgitating the propaganda oil companies have spent millions disseminating to right-wing morons like yourself.

You are a laughing stock.


Well, he does have competition as long Cutt is still posting his gibberish.
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Old 09-09-2014, 08:20 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by UltimateHoboW/Shotgun View Post
Someone please dig up that stupid graph of the ice core/temp. correlation over the last 100,000 years, and I'll show how stupid you guys are.
Take your best shot.

I've got nearly 30 years of experience on this subject.

Prepare to be vaporized.
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Old 09-10-2014, 07:44 AM   #20
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Colorado has inherited the Virginia climate this year.....
Weirdest summer I've ever experienced here. Beautiful, but weird.
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Old 09-10-2014, 07:46 AM   #21
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A client of mine who's lived in California her whole life told me that the last time an ElNiño was forecasted there were wahoo and sharp nose puffers along with other fish that were mostly reef fish there in the California waters.

I am in agreement that man's destruction of the earth is right on schedule, but the wahoo thing isn't necesarily anything to be alarmed about.
I'm a California native who grew up fishing those waters. I never heard of wahoos being caught there. Of course, Japan is reporting that tropical fish are now showing up on their southern islands. There are plenty of other reports that tropical fish are expanding their regions around the world. So, it's not just wahoos.
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Old 09-10-2014, 09:36 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Rohirrim View Post
The dire predictions are already being fulfilled. Yesterday, the Audubon Society released a study showing that 50% of North American bird species are already under threat of extinction due to climate change. Some are already gone.

Just because you choose to ignore a thing, doesn't mean it ceases to exist, although I realize that is basic, Right Wing strategy.

In the last ten years, how many "100 year" events have you witnessed all around the world? 100 year droughts? 100 year floods? 100 year tornadoes? 100 year storms?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weathe...iety/15299231/


this report? BS it deals mostly with what they predict based on climate models will occur by 2080. It's more dire predictions we won't live to see.
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Old 09-10-2014, 09:38 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Rohirrim View Post
I'm a California native who grew up fishing those waters. I never heard of wahoos being caught there. Of course, Japan is reporting that tropical fish are now showing up on their southern islands. There are plenty of other reports that tropical fish are expanding their regions around the world. So, it's not just wahoos.
Wow really because I did also and everyone knows El Nino brings crazy fish north. Dorado, Wahoo, come as far as Ventura County on big El Ninos. I own a 28 foot sportfishing boat, I have plied the waters, El Nino is natural and occurring this yr. We will get rain and the exotic fish will be gone next yr until the next one.
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Old 09-10-2014, 09:39 AM   #24
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Some guy just caught a wahoo off the coast of Orange County. When's the last time that happened? Never.
Stick to things you know about.
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Old 09-10-2014, 12:40 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by cutthemdown View Post
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weathe...iety/15299231/


this report? BS it deals mostly with what they predict based on climate models will occur by 2080. It's more dire predictions we won't live to see.
Perhaps you won't, but our kids and grandkids will.

Or do you just tell 'em to **** off?
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