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Old 04-02-2014, 09:44 PM   #151
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Originally Posted by pricejj View Post
This year they are spending $21M more on the Offense than Defense. Next year, they're currently on the hook for $10M more on Offense than Defense, and will have these starters coming in FA:

1. Demaryius Thomas - $10M
2. Wes Welker - let walk
3. Julius Thomas - $7M
4. Orlando Franklin - ?
5. Terrance Knighton - ?
6. Kevin Vickerson - let walk
7. Chris Harris - $7M
8. Nate Irving - let walk
9. Rahim Moore - ?

They'll have roughly $26M-$30M to spend in FA, and won't be able to re-sign everybody. Orlando Franklin represents a big ticket item on Offense. If they let him walk, they'll be able to re-sign more guys like Knighton and Moore.
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The idea that one would let a borderline elite RT walk in favor of the most average of average safeties is the height of lunacy.
That's not what I said. Let's look at the math.

There are 11 additional roster spots that the Broncos will need to fill on the 2015 roster, in addition to the 9 players I listed here. The Broncos are expected to have around $33M cap space remaining in 2015 if they don't sign any more guys this year, other than draft picks. Let's estimate that 6 draft picks will make the squad from the 2015 draft class, costing ~4.0M.

That leaves the Broncos with ~$29M to spend on 13 players. Let's assume that DT, JT, and Chris Harris are all signed to the cap hits I listed above.

That leaves the Broncos with ~$5M remaining to spend on 10 players. Given the above scenario, they will already be spending ~$20M more on the Offense (than the Defense) in 2015.

So, obviously there are going to be some tough choices to be made...and yes the Broncos will have to let a lot of the guys walk on the above list. How many they are able to keep really depends on how many huge contracts they give out.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:07 PM   #152
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Just leave Franklin alone at RT and draft a damn OG.
Say for the sake of argument that Franklin kicks in to OG, Clark wins the RT job and Montgomery wins the C job.
You still have very little depth along the OL and now you have two guys changing positions and a brand new C. I want no part of that, Manning is great but that is too much shuffling.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:09 PM   #153
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The Broncos WILL NOT be able to keep all of:

1. Demaryius Thomas
2. Julius Thomas
3. Orlando Franklin
4. Chris Harris
5. Terrance Knighton

The Broncos have 20 roster spots to fill in 2015, and have ~$33M to do it. These guys ALONE will take more than that in Free Agency.

Basically, you can take 2 of the guys off this list without batting an eyelash. We can quibble later about if the Broncos have enough money to sign a 3rd member of this list.

The Broncos lost 8 starters due to FA this year, and 8 more starters are coming up in FA next year.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:19 PM   #154
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The Broncos WILL NOT be able to keep all of:

1. Demaryius Thomas
2. Julius Thomas
3. Orlando Franklin
4. Chris Harris
5. Terrance Knighton

The Broncos have 20 roster spots to fill in 2015, and have ~$33M to do it. These guys ALONE will take more than that in Free Agency.

Basically, you can take 2 of the guys off this list without batting an eyelash. We can quibble later about if the Broncos have enough money to sign a 3rd member of this list.

The Broncos lost 8 starters due to FA this year, and 8 more starters are coming up in FA next year.
There's this thing called the draft, junior.

Where 5-7 of them could make the team.

If they wanted, they could keep all of them, most likely wont happen though.

Minus DT, none of them will command 10+, but Harris may get a fairly big sized deal however.

Manning/Ware will be off the books in 2 years.

Demaryius- 10+
Harris- 6-7.
Knighton- 5-6.
Julius- 6-7.
Franklin- 5-6.

Currently, we have 95 in cap commitments for next season.

With Von's option, that would be 45 for all 6 of them.

And nearly 30 mil off the books in 2 years if they are backloaded to a degree.

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Old 04-02-2014, 10:27 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by pricejj View Post
The Broncos WILL NOT be able to keep all of:

1. Demaryius Thomas
2. Julius Thomas
3. Orlando Franklin
4. Chris Harris
5. Terrance Knighton

The Broncos have 20 roster spots to fill in 2015, and have ~$33M to do it. These guys ALONE will take more than that in Free Agency.

Basically, you can take 2 of the guys off this list without batting an eyelash. We can quibble later about if the Broncos have enough money to sign a 3rd member of this list.

The Broncos lost 8 starters due to FA this year, and 8 more starters are coming up in FA next year.
Are you assuming Manning will play in 2015? Cause there's another 20M there. We win the SB he's retiring IMO. Suddenly it doesn't look so inviting for players like DT. I'd work an extension beforehand.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:29 PM   #156
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Originally Posted by pricejj View Post
The Broncos WILL NOT be able to keep all of:

1. Demaryius Thomas
2. Julius Thomas
3. Orlando Franklin
4. Chris Harris
5. Terrance Knighton

The Broncos have 20 roster spots to fill in 2015, and have ~$33M to do it. These guys ALONE will take more than that in Free Agency.

Basically, you can take 2 of the guys off this list without batting an eyelash. We can quibble later about if the Broncos have enough money to sign a 3rd member of this list.

The Broncos lost 8 starters due to FA this year, and 8 more starters are coming up in FA next year.
As we have seen, it is not the cap that is the limit....it is the cash flow. Contracts can be done to keep them if Elway/Co believe the players are worth the $$ they will be seeking.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:39 PM   #157
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Are you assuming Manning will play in 2015? Cause there's another 20M there. We win the SB he's retiring IMO. Suddenly it doesn't look so inviting for players like DT. I'd work an extension beforehand.
Yes, I think Manning will play in 2015.

If they win the Superbowl this year, Manning comes back to defend. If they don't win the Superbowl this year, Manning gives it one more shot.

Some of these FA deals they're giving out indicate Manning might want to play out his entire contract.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:41 PM   #158
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To chime in on this. I think Price makes a ton of sense here. We lost Decker and Beadles this year simply because we can't compete with market demands. I think Franklin is gone next year regardless of whether we want to keep him or not because I think he'll be overpaid on the open market. And that's whether we use him at LG where he'll beast or we keep him at RT, where he looks good with Manning's quick release. People are arguing over his merit, but the reality is we aren't going to be able to afford him, and we damn sure aren't franchising him. It's the Eric Decker scenario all over again. He's a solid player, but Manning makes him look better than he is and inflates his value exponentially.

Elway is a bright GM, he already knows this. They have some options in whether they believe Vincent Painter is the future at RT, whether they want to keep Chris Clark long term at RT or just use him there until Painter is ready, or if Painter is not developing as hoped, they can find a RT in this draft where there is a nice amount of talent.

I put our chances of re-signing Franklin at 0%, just like I did with Decker last year. It's not a reflection on the player, but it is a reflection on how easy it is to fill the position and the amount of money the market will overpay.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:42 PM   #159
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Yes, I think Manning will play in 2015.

If they win the Superbowl this year, Manning comes back to defend. If they don't win the Superbowl this year, Manning gives it one more shot.

Some of these FA deals they're giving out indicate Manning might want to play out his entire contract.
I hope so. But the decline starts quick when you get up there in age. Hopefully he stays healthy again throughout this year.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:47 PM   #160
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...
Your contracts for those 5 players add up to $36M, junior. You still have 15 additional roster spots to account for (including the draft). I don't care how much you backload the contracts, that ain't working. Might wanna tally up those numbers again.

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Are you assuming Manning will play in 2015? Cause there's another 20M there. We win the SB he's retiring IMO. Suddenly it doesn't look so inviting for players like DT. I'd work an extension beforehand.
Yes, I think Manning will play in 2015. If they win the Superbowl this year, Manning comes back to defend. If they don't win the Superbowl this year, Manning gives it one more shot. Some of these FA deals they're giving out indicate Manning might want to play out his entire contract.


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As we have seen, it is not the cap that is the limit....it is the cash flow. Contracts can be done to keep them if Elway/Co believe the players are worth the $$ they will be seeking.
Dude, we're on schedule to spend $140M this year. The cap is only $133M. Good thing we have about $10M in rollover coming from last year. They're spending it all man.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:51 PM   #161
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To chime in on this. I think Price makes a ton of sense here. We lost Decker and Beadles this year simply because we can't compete with market demands. I think Franklin is gone next year regardless of whether we want to keep him or not because I think he'll be overpaid on the open market. And that's whether we use him at LG where he'll beast or we keep him at RT, where he looks good with Manning's quick release. People are arguing over his merit, but the reality is we aren't going to be able to afford him, and we damn sure aren't franchising him. It's the Eric Decker scenario all over again. He's a solid player, but Manning makes him look better than he is and inflates his value exponentially.

Elway is a bright GM, he already knows this. They have some options in whether they believe Vincent Painter is the future at RT, whether they want to keep Chris Clark long term at RT or just use him there until Painter is ready, or if Painter is not developing as hoped, they can find a RT in this draft where there is a nice amount of talent.

I put our chances of re-signing Franklin at 0%, just like I did with Decker last year. It's not a reflection on the player, but it is a reflection on how easy it is to fill the position and the amount of money the market will overpay.
It seems Elway either wants to keep someone or he doesnt.

This will be the first time he can keep or not keep the players he hand-picked and sign them to a second contract.

They signed Sanders for a little under 2.5 mil less per year than Decker, if anything it seemed like they valued Sanders over Decker.

Beadles was a product of Manning, and doesnt fit what Elway looks for in OL right now.

Clady/Vaz/Franklin/Manny are all 310-325+ pounds.

Beadles struggled in 1 on 1 point of attack blocking and was mainly just good in pulling or in a ZBS.

I wouldnt be all that surprised if they let go of Franklin, probably depends on the development of Painter. And how they like Clark however i think he's better suited as the swing/6th OL.

Will be interesting to see who he likes after DT/JT assuming they are top 2 and they use the option on Von.

If anyone.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:56 PM   #162
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Nothing "remotely" yet MUGs post in the will thread is just that. You asked for ONE example. I gave you one. Now buh bye.
This is a copy/paste of what I said:

Quote:
Pretty certain that Orlando Franklin's tweeting was a result of the Broncos informing him he would have to compete with Chris Clark for the starting RT position. That offended him since he sees that as his job.

Now, what does this signing of Montgomery mean, it may signify the team is worried that if Franklin loses out to Clark, and he absolutely will, that Franklin won't be willing to play LG and will quit on the team. This gives them a little bit of flexibility. If they are super worried that Franklin is going to be a distraction, we could hear trade talk soon, possibly even during the draft.
You chose to see it one way, me saying Franklin was terrible. I didn't come close to that. The better approach would have been seeing it as me saying Chris Clark is really freaking good. Franklin can't handle speed rushers, he admits that himself, but Clark can. Many teams are essentially using two LTs now (with one at RT) if they are passing oriented like we are. If we are going to play the Seahawks or 49ers in the Super Bowl next year, and it's Elway's job to assume we are, that means we can't have Franklin at RT, or if we do, we have to limit our scheme and keep a TE in to help him block. That means we'd be taking Thomas, Sanders, or Welker either off the field or out of a route. I think Clark allows us to keep our entire offense open.

I also think Clark is just a better pass blocking OT prospect than Franklin will ever be. Listening to his Fan interview, Franklin seems pretty certain his limited skill set is going to make him transition to OG. Regardless, I don't think we can afford him next offseason at either position.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:56 PM   #163
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Your contracts for those 5 players add up to $36M, junior. You still have 15 additional roster spots to account for (including the draft). I don't care how much you backload the contracts, that ain't working. Might wanna tally up those numbers again.



.
The cap is expected to rise to 145-146 million.

They can backload those deals, and who knows if Manning plays in 2015 which will give them even more $.

Besides, as we've seen under Sullivan, he's been quite masterful at working these contracts.

They wont keep them all, have to let some guys go, but none of them minus DT will command huge money (10+ a year).

Another draft class in 15, the 14 draft class could fill 9-11 spots, maybe more. Then roll from there.
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Old 04-02-2014, 11:04 PM   #164
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I put our chances of re-signing Franklin at 0%, just like I did with Decker last year. It's not a reflection on the player, but it is a reflection on how easy it is to fill the position and the amount of money the market will overpay.
I agree completely. And he's just the easy choice. It really gets dicey when you start to consider which of the other top $$ guys won't be renewed.

Is it DT? JT? Chris Harris?

One thing is obvious. The Broncos are going to have to hit many homeruns in these next two drafts for them to be able to keep up the talent level. Judging by past history, that isn't exactly likely.
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Old 04-02-2014, 11:04 PM   #165
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The cap is expected to rise to 145-146 million.

They can backload those deals, and who knows if Manning plays in 2015 which will give them even more $.

Besides, as we've seen under Sullivan, he's been quite masterful at working these contracts.

They wont keep them all, have to let some guys go, but none of them minus DT will command huge money (10+ a year).

Another draft class in 15, the 14 draft class could fill 9-11 spots, maybe more. Then roll from there.
What I really like about Elway is that he puts a value on a player and/or position and he doesn't move away from it. That comes from the car business. One of my close friends is a wildly successful GM at several dealerships, his approach is to have a firm value on the product, try and oversell the hell out of it to maximize value, but he never price matches if a competitor drops the value below his. It's the reverse in football, if someone is willing to overpay for the value you place on a position or player, you let the player go, no matter how much you like him. Maybe if he's a Franchise caliber player you make an exception, but I feel like even if Elway loves Franklin as his favorite player in the world, if the market is going to overpay what Elway has assigned as his price point, the businessman in him will let that favorite player walk away. He's far too competitive to get snookered into a bad deal based on market pressure.
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Old 04-02-2014, 11:08 PM   #166
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...
1. I already included the '14 draft class. Without that, it's 26 spots.
2. I already included the cap raising up to $143M.
3. If Manning leaves, the entire dynamic changes so much that it's not even worth talking about.

Obviously, the Broncos could avoid some grief if they cut Dreessen immediately, and if they cut Colquitt and Prater after this year. Something should be done about Tamme, but I'm not sure what. They may want to hold onto him in case they feel like Julius Thomas is over-priced next year.

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Old 04-02-2014, 11:12 PM   #167
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I agree completely. And he's just the easy choice. It really gets dicey when you start to consider which of the other top $$ guys won't be renewed.

Is it DT? JT? Chris Harris?

One thing is obvious. The Broncos are going to have to hit many homeruns in these next two drafts for them to be able to keep up the talent level. Judging by past history, that isn't exactly likely.
100% we'll keep all three of those guys. Von is the one we might shock the world and let walk/trade at some point.

I don't think Chris Harris is going to be insanely expensive though, I'm thinking 4Y, 20M, high guarantees.

JT probably gets 5Y, 25M. He's not a good enough all around TE to warrant Dennis Pitta money, plus he's nowhere near Jimmy Graham or Gronk. It will be very interesting to see what kind of extension Kyle Rudolph gets next season.

DT is getting a monster deal. 5Y, 60M, Mike Wallace type deal.


But they'll sign those three for sure, they can manipulate the system enough to make it work, plus all the other contracts they will need. Pot Roast likely won't be back though.
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Old 04-02-2014, 11:17 PM   #168
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100% we'll keep all three of those guys. Von is the one we might shock the world and let walk/trade at some point.

I don't think Chris Harris is going to be insanely expensive though, I'm thinking 4Y, 20M, high guarantees.

JT probably gets 5Y, 25M. He's not a good enough all around TE to warrant Dennis Pitta money, plus he's nowhere near Jimmy Graham or Gronk. It will be very interesting to see what kind of extension Kyle Rudolph gets next season.

DT is getting a monster deal. 5Y, 60M, Mike Wallace type deal.


But they'll sign those three for sure, they can manipulate the system enough to make it work, plus all the other contracts they will need. Pot Roast likely won't be back though.
1. Yeah, I was thinking Pot Roast would be gone, but he may represent value, especially if Vickerson is not re-signed (which is likely). Wolfe and Jackson better start eating some hamburgers.
2. Judging by everything Chris Harris has been saying it sounds like he's going to be demanding top dollar. He sees all the mediocre CB's getting $10M deals this year. He definitely won't settle for $5M per year, unless his market completely falls out. In his tweets, and his radio appearance today, he keeps hinting at "it's one more year, then we'll see if they can afford me". He honestly thinks he's one of the top CB's in the game.
3. If JT only commands $5M that's great. Every extra million counts.

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Old 04-02-2014, 11:35 PM   #169
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The Broncos WILL NOT be able to keep all of:

1. Demaryius Thomas
2. Julius Thomas
3. Orlando Franklin
4. Chris Harris
5. Terrance Knighton

The Broncos have 20 roster spots to fill in 2015, and have ~$33M to do it. These guys ALONE will take more than that in Free Agency.

Basically, you can take 2 of the guys off this list without batting an eyelash. We can quibble later about if the Broncos have enough money to sign a 3rd member of this list.

The Broncos lost 8 starters due to FA this year, and 8 more starters are coming up in FA next year.
Agreed. I'm gonna go f this chick real quick and I'll be right back. Give or take 2 minutes.
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Old 04-02-2014, 11:42 PM   #170
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The Broncos WILL NOT be able to keep all of:

1. Demaryius Thomas
2. Julius Thomas
3. Orlando Franklin
4. Chris Harris
5. Terrance Knighton

The Broncos have 20 roster spots to fill in 2015, and have ~$33M to do it. These guys ALONE will take more than that in Free Agency.

Basically, you can take 2 of the guys off this list without batting an eyelash. We can quibble later about if the Broncos have enough money to sign a 3rd member of this list.

The Broncos lost 8 starters due to FA this year, and 8 more starters are coming up in FA next year.
Did we really lose 8 guys to FA or did 8 guys contracts end that we weren't interested in giving a new deal?

Of the 5 you have listed there I agree 2 of them won't return, but it won't be because the team is strapped, it will be because they will want more than the team is willing to pay. Knighton and Franklin will seek big money deals elsewhere. DT and JT will not be allowed to leave. Harris will most likely get a good deal here.

Also, the 33 million that that is being listed now is before cuts and money moves are made. Our cap number this year increased because we dumped Champ and Kuper retired. Next year's number will change when additional moves are made that right now aren't foreseen.

I am not too worried about the money. The team will sign the guys they want.

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Old 04-02-2014, 11:46 PM   #171
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Did we really lose 8 guys to FA or did 8 guys contracts end that we weren't interested in giving a new deal?

Of the 5 you have listed there I agree 2 of them won't return, but it won't be because the team is strapped, it will be because they will want more than the team is willing to pay. Knighton and Franklin will seek big money deals elsewhere. DT and JT will not be allowed to leave. Harris will most likely get a good deal here.
Is JT worth what he will command if he has another breakout year? Post manning, I don't see it. DT is coming back, period. Of the other 4 big names, we will resign 2, IMO. I think it's all guessing as to who those 2 are.
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:37 AM   #172
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^
Taking off clothes, getting it up, copulation, rinse? (maybe not), putting back on clothes, reading another post, and responding to said post all within 9 minutes.

I know Lions only take about 30 seconds, but they also don't have to take off any clothes.

Bronc0guy gf says "Not too shabby".
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:42 AM   #173
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^
Taking off clothes, getting it up, copulation, rinse? (maybe not), putting back on clothes, reading another post, and responding to said post all within 9 minutes.

I know Lions only take about 30 seconds, but they also don't have to take off any clothes.

Bronc0guy gf says "Not too shabby".
Hahahahaha. Just lol'd and woke up my very unsatisfied lady friend. Promised her I'd do better next time.
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:42 AM   #174
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What we know based on Elway's history is that he has no problem paying 10M per year to a #1 CB at the peak of his game. He seems to prefer 5M for a #2 CB. If Harris does ask for a lot more, and we can't entice him with a lower number with max guarantees, than perhaps he does walk. We've had him for dirt cheap the last few years, so maybe the team will feel comfortable paying a little bit more thinking it's compensation for previous years' work as well.
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:49 AM   #175
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