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Old 03-24-2014, 04:08 PM   #1
Breaker
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Default Compensatory Draft Picks

NFL released the compensatory draft picks list today (Broncos don't have any), but I was wondering if anyone knows more about the process in establishing who gets a compensatory draft pick.

I understand that it is based on a formula that takes into account

"The number of picks a team receives equals the net loss of compensatory free agents up to a maximum of four. The 32 compensatory choices announced today will supplement the 224 choices in the seven rounds of the 2014 NFL Draft (May 8-10), which will kick off in prime time for the fifth consecutive year."

"Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a club is covered by this formula. salary, playing time and postseason honors, although players that are cut or retire do not count in this manner."

My question is this, is it theoretically possible to lose a player such as Peyton Manning via free agency, and as a result get a compensatory first round draft pick (essentially #33 overall) or is it limited to a specific round like round 3 or later? I would think that they way we currently have a bunch of the contracts structured that we could lose some expensive, very talented, free agent type guys in 2017 (year after Manning's current deal expires) and get some fairly high compensatory draft picks, if our net gain through free agency does not exceed our net loss through free agency. Anyone have any info on this for me, I have been looking online but I can't find anything about it being limited to specific rounds.
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Old 03-24-2014, 04:09 PM   #2
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Rounds 3 or later.
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Old 03-24-2014, 05:01 PM   #3
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Wait, we don't have any? I thought people were talking like we could expect to get a fourth or a fifth this year?
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Old 03-24-2014, 05:08 PM   #4
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Last year we signed Welker/Vasquez/Phillips who not only got significant playing time, postseason play, but also signed fairly large deals (minus Phillips).

That pretty much ruled us out.

I wouldn't expect any next year either. Woodyard/Decker/DRC got nice deals but we paid more for Talib/Ware/Sanders/Ward.
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Old 03-24-2014, 05:48 PM   #5
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Comp picks are nice but you cannot trade them so their value is somewhat limited.
It does allow you to potentially take a flier on someone.
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Old 03-24-2014, 05:52 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fontaine View Post
Last year we signed Welker/Vasquez/Phillips who not only got significant playing time, postseason play, but also signed fairly large deals (minus Phillips).

That pretty much ruled us out.

I wouldn't expect any next year either. Woodyard/Decker/DRC got nice deals but we paid more for Talib/Ware/Sanders/Ward.
ware shouldn't factor into the equation since he was released from his previous team instead of coming off an expiring contract.
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Old 03-24-2014, 05:54 PM   #7
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Baltimore got a 3, two 4's and a 5.

**** rat birds!

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Old 03-24-2014, 05:57 PM   #8
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Talib, Ward, Sanders.

Ware was cut, doesn't count in formula.

Decker, Beadles, DRC, Woodyard and Mincey.

We would get at least a pick in 2015. If Moreno, Ayers or others sign -- we are golden.
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Old 03-24-2014, 06:33 PM   #9
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Rounds 3 or later.
yep
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Old 03-24-2014, 06:45 PM   #10
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Methodology (Warning: Extreme nerdliness lies below)

I will once again give credit to AdamJT13 for his blog, adamjt13.blogspot.com, which provides the most comprehensive guide to comp pick rules available. Without his work, these predictions would not be possible. If you are unfamiliar with the basic rules that affect comp picks, they are:
1. Lost players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs do not qualify.
2. Lost players that were picked up during the season the year before do not qualify.
3. Signed players that are released before midseason do not qualify.
4. Players earning low minimum salaries do not qualify.
5. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.
6. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.
It should be noted that although the NFL admits publicly the basic rules above, NFL teams do not know the exact picks that they will be awarded. They have to make assumptions based upon past history, just as I have done.
This is the first year I can report that I was able to find all contract values. Yay internet! This incorporates two new items that we learned last year; that the rights to comp picks accompany the trade of a qualifying player, and that the system under the new CBA will continue to qualify players at lower salaries than it had previously done. This year I will hopefully learn another new piece to the puzzle. If a team loses four guys with 7th round value, but signs three guys with 7th round value, for which player is the comp pick awarded? This situation happened in a few cases this year, and with no reference point to work from, I assumed that the comp pick would be awarded for the lowest lost player’s salary. An error in this assumption would have the greatest potential effect on Pittsburgh, which could jump ten places in the 7th round if the highest-salaried lost player is used.
The order of picks in each round is based upon contract amount and playing time (number of snaps). AdamJT13 came up with a playing time equation, but he did not make it public, so I am just guessing here based upon recent history. I claim no accuracy on draft order within each round.
I originally awarded 36 normal comp picks this year. This is the most picks awarded in a long time, reflecting a lot of player movement, which may be a result of teams unable to sign their own free agents due to salary cap restrictions. However, the NFL awards only 32, so a few teams at the bottom of the list (Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh) may not be receiving picks that they otherwise might have in a normal year.
Isaac Sopoaga, who was signed from San Francisco by Philadelphia, and then traded to New England, affected the San Francisco and New England calculations. This was based upon how Drew Stanton (signed by the Jets from the Lions, and then traded to the Colts) was treated last year by the NFL.
Last year Phillip Wheeler was a qualifying player on his $715,000 salary after playing more than 1,000 snaps. This year I counted all players in the $700k-$800k range that played a significant number of snaps. The players I am least certain on are Mike Pollak, who was signed for $780,000 and played 68 snaps, and Luke McCown, who was signed for $840,000 and played 16 snaps. I used Washington's signing of Keyaron Fox in 2011 as the relevant history in this instance to count McCown. Atlanta also has two players with “voidable” contracts so their predictions could turn into a complete mess; more detail is provided later.
Three teams were given the maximum number of four comp picks: New York Jets, Baltimore, and St. Louis. None of them would have had a fifth pick if it was allowed. Third round picks are fairly rare, therefore the cut-off point for them is not easily decipherable. There is a possibility Green Bay’s comp pick for losing Greg Jennings will be a 4th rounder.

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/r...HffBOSB6BQQ.99
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Old 03-24-2014, 07:28 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Requiem View Post
Talib, Ward, Sanders.

Ware was cut, doesn't count in formula.

Decker, Beadles, DRC, Woodyard and Mincey.

We would get at least a pick in 2015. If Moreno, Ayers or others sign -- we are golden.
Mincey doesn't count either bud, he was signed mid-season, outgoing players need to be on the roster from week 1.

At the minute by my calculations we're on the hook for a pick for Decker.

Talib = DRC - lower value
Ward = Woodyard - lower value
Sanders = Beadles - next higher value
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Old 03-24-2014, 07:41 PM   #12
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Mincey doesn't count either bud, he was signed mid-season, outgoing players need to be on the roster from week 1.

At the minute by my calculations we're on the hook for a pick for Decker.

Talib = DRC - lower value
Ward = Woodyard - lower value
Sanders = Beadles - next higher value
4th rounder IMo.

Atleast. Let other guys sign fillups, morono and airs and letter rip.
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:06 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lestat View Post
Comp picks are nice but you cannot trade them so their value is somewhat limited.
It does allow you to potentially take a flier on someone.
That Clarret pick still chaps my ass.

Shanny threw it away, I know that Bobby Turner wanted to try to turn him around and it was bust or boom but there were other quality players on that board that we could have used. Plus every year around draft time I have to hear about it from one of my friends who knows it gets me going.
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:09 PM   #14
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CAN WE AT LEAST GET A CHEESE CAKE FOR WHAT WE'VE LOST. EFFFING NFL.
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:12 PM   #15
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CAN WE AT LEAST GET A CHEESE CAKE FOR WHAT WE'VE LOST. EFFFING NFL.
Not sure if kFc was in the running for any but I am glad they didn't get any. Not having that 2nd round pick is going to hamstring them in the draft unless they find someone willing to come up and pay dearly for it.
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Old 03-24-2014, 09:18 PM   #16
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If you're winning, signing key FA's and drafting well, comp picks will not come. I'm totally fine with that.
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Old 03-24-2014, 09:29 PM   #17
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If you're winning, signing key FA's and drafting well, comp picks will not come. I'm totally fine with that.
uh....at least 1/2 the teams that got 3rd and 4th rounders have been in the playoffs once in the last two years.
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Old 03-24-2014, 10:48 PM   #18
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Broncos won't get any comp picks next yr either.
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Old 03-25-2014, 02:30 AM   #19
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Broncos won't get any comp picks next yr either.
That really depends if we sign any other FA's before 1st June. Given what's out there I dont see it aside from maybe bringing 1-2 of our own back out of Moreno, Adams, Phillips or Ayers
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Old 03-25-2014, 07:20 AM   #20
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That really depends if we sign any other FA's before 1st June. Given what's out there I dont see it aside from maybe bringing 1-2 of our own back out of Moreno, Adams, Phillips or Ayers
Damn that's two McD first round picks coming off their rookie deal that are barly getting a sniff. Oh what could have been with that pile of picks......
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Old 03-25-2014, 07:28 AM   #21
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Damn that's two McD first round picks coming off their rookie deal that are barly getting a sniff. Oh what could have been with that pile of picks......
Yeah, but we got Tebow!
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Old 03-25-2014, 08:08 AM   #22
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Ware doesn't factor into the equation. He was released
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Old 03-25-2014, 08:43 AM   #23
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Ware doesn't factor into the equation. He was released
So you are saying Ware doesn't count because he was released.
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Old 03-25-2014, 09:26 AM   #24
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So you are saying Ware doesn't count because he was released.
Yes.
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Old 03-25-2014, 09:50 AM   #25
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Yes.
So you are saying yes?
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